Core Viewpoint - Alibaba has launched two AI applications, Qianwen App and Lingguang App, marking its entry into the consumer market after focusing on B2B. The rapid download growth of these apps indicates strong market interest and potential for future growth [2][4]. Financial Performance - For Q2 of fiscal year 2026, Alibaba reported revenue of 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations. Excluding sold businesses, revenue growth was 15% [2][3]. - The company's operating profit fell significantly to 5.365 billion yuan, down 85% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITA declining 78% to 9.073 billion yuan. The diluted earnings per American depositary share were 4.36 yuan, a 71% decrease [3]. AI Business Insights - The AI segment shows more potential for growth compared to the saturated instant retail market. Alibaba's cloud business revenue growth reached 34%, the highest in three years, with AI-related products contributing approximately 20% to external cloud revenue [4][5]. - The market requires quantifiable results to respond positively, as seen when Qianwen App's download milestone led to a stock price increase [5]. Future Outlook - Alibaba's leadership expresses confidence in the AI sector, with plans for significant investments beyond the previously announced 380 billion yuan over three years. The CEO indicated that there is no bubble in AI, while the chairman emphasized the distinction between financial and technological bubbles [5][6]. - The launch of Qianwen App and Lingguang App is just the beginning of Alibaba's consumer AI strategy, aiming to create a super-native AI application for consumers [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - Alibaba's entry into the consumer AI market faces competition from established players and startups that have already gained traction. However, Alibaba's underlying model capabilities and ecosystem may provide a competitive edge [4][6]. Market Valuation - Following the earnings report, Goldman Sachs adjusted Alibaba's target price from $205 to $197, maintaining a "buy" rating due to the stable valuation of its cloud business and the ongoing potential of its AI-driven narrative [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that 招银国际 has lowered Alibaba's (BABA.US) target price by 1.4% to $206.4 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, indicating continued optimism about the company's prospects in the artificial intelligence sector [1] - Alibaba's cloud business revenue grew by 34% in the second fiscal quarter, surpassing both the bank's and market expectations, suggesting strong customer demand that is likely to support high revenue growth in the coming quarters [1] - For the third fiscal quarter, management anticipates some fluctuations in Customer Management Revenue (CMR) due to a high base effect, but the bank believes the plan to significantly reduce losses in the instant retail business aligns with market expectations, although there may still be concerns regarding the progress of synergies from this business [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the computer industry is experiencing significant growth driven by advancements in AI technology and cloud computing, with companies like Alibaba leading the charge in AI capabilities and market share [4][5][6] - Alibaba's recent financial performance shows a revenue of 247.795 billion yuan for FY26Q2, exceeding market expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [4] - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for AI products, with Alibaba's cloud business achieving a revenue growth of 34% year-on-year, driven by public cloud and AI product demand [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the computer industry is at 5247.18, with a 52-week high of 5841.52 and a low of 3963.29 [1] Performance Analysis - The relative performance of the computer industry compared to the CSI 300 index shows fluctuations, with a notable decline of 11% from November 2024 to November 2025 [3] Company Highlights - Alibaba's AI-related products have seen a continuous three-digit year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters, indicating strong market demand [5] - The company is expanding its AI capabilities across various sectors, including government and finance, and is enhancing its global presence with new data centers [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key companies within the internet and AI sectors, including Alibaba, Tencent, and various domestic and overseas computing firms [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan for FY2026Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 5%, slightly exceeding market expectations. Excluding high-end retail and Yintai, the same-store revenue growth was 15% [7] - The core e-commerce segment showed a significant increase, with a 15.5% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025. The customer management revenue also grew by 10% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [7] - The cloud business is entering an accelerated growth phase, with a 34% year-on-year revenue increase, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast of 28%. AI-related revenue continues to grow at triple-digit rates [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1,039.89 billion yuan, 1,137.30 billion yuan, and 1,262.70 billion yuan for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024A: 941,168 million yuan - 2025A: 996,347 million yuan - 2026E: 1,039,890 million yuan - 2027E: 1,137,296 million yuan - 2028E: 1,262,700 million yuan [6] - The projected net profit for the same years is: - 2024A: 79,741 million yuan - 2025A: 129,470 million yuan - 2026E: 120,305 million yuan - 2027E: 152,779 million yuan - 2028E: 189,139 million yuan [6] - The company’s EPS is projected to be 4.10 yuan for 2024A, increasing to 9.91 yuan by 2028E [6] Market Performance - The company has shown a market performance of -6% over the last 12 months, while the Hang Seng Index has increased by 20% [4]

Core Insights - Data quality will significantly determine whether artificial intelligence can revolutionize the e-commerce sector [20] - The shift from traditional search engines to AI-driven conversational interfaces is fundamentally changing shopping behaviors [7] Group 1: AI Impact on E-commerce - AI is transforming e-commerce by shifting the flow of traffic from traditional search engines to conversational platforms like ChatGPT and Doubao, which have monthly active users exceeding 700 million and 160 million respectively [3][5] - OpenAI's collaboration with Shopify to enable shopping directly within ChatGPT signifies a new trend where consumers can purchase products without navigating to e-commerce sites [3] - The integration of AI in e-commerce is expected to enhance user experience by providing personalized recommendations based on historical behavior rather than just search queries [9] Group 2: Traditional Search Engines vs. AI - Traditional search engines like Google are experiencing a decline in usage as AI models like ChatGPT attract more users with their conversational and direct response capabilities [4][10] - The revenue model of traditional search engines, which relies heavily on advertising, is threatened as AI reduces the number of displayed results, thereby limiting ad space [4] - Companies like Baidu are adapting by integrating AI features into their platforms, such as the Wenxin assistant, which has seen a fivefold increase in interaction rounds [10] Group 3: E-commerce Platforms and AI Integration - Doubao, supported by ByteDance's Volcano Engine, is creating a closed-loop e-commerce ecosystem by directing users to Douyin's shopping links, even when queries suggest other platforms [5][6] - Alibaba's recent launch of the Qianwen app aims to compete in the AI-driven e-commerce space, although it has yet to achieve significant breakthroughs in user engagement [6] - The trend indicates that e-commerce platforms will increasingly rely on AI to enhance user interaction and streamline the shopping process [9][12] Group 4: Data Quality and Trust Issues - The effectiveness of AI in e-commerce is contingent upon the quality of data it utilizes, as poor data can lead to misleading recommendations and consumer distrust [19] - Concerns about the accuracy of AI-generated content are prevalent, as many models rely on publicly available data that may not reflect current consumer preferences [18][19] - Companies must focus on integrating private, industry-specific, and public data to create reliable AI systems that can genuinely enhance consumer experiences [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" and is maintained [8][9]. Core Insights - The recent financial report highlights several strengths: first, the controllable investment in Taobao Flash Sale has significantly boosted the main site, with expectations for continued improvement in user experience (UE) through scale effects and operational efficiency optimization. Second, the cloud business is experiencing sustained acceleration in growth, with potential for high growth momentum in the future. From a medium to long-term perspective, investments in instant retail are expected to drive high-frequency consumer spending, while the cloud business opens a second growth curve. Overall, the report is optimistic about the company's investment opportunities, projecting Non-GAAP net profits of 109.5 billion, 167.2 billion, and 195.4 billion yuan for FY2026-2028 [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2026Q2, the company reported revenue of 247.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Excluding the disposed businesses of Sun Art Retail and Intime, revenue grew by 15%. Operating profit reached 5.4 billion yuan, down 85% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was 10.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 72% [6][8]. - The EBITA for the Chinese e-commerce group was 10.5 billion yuan, down 76% year-on-year, primarily due to profitability pressure from investments in instant retail. However, the main e-commerce site saw customer management revenue grow by 10% year-on-year, driven by increased penetration and traffic from instant retail [10]. - Instant retail revenue reached 22.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%, with significant improvements in unit economics since September [10]. - Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew by 34% year-on-year, with a stable EBITA margin. The growth is largely attributed to AI-driven products, which have seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters [10]. Financial Forecast - The financial forecast for Alibaba indicates projected revenues of 1,051.9 billion yuan for FY2026, 1,215.6 billion yuan for FY2027, and 1,364.5 billion yuan for FY2028. Non-GAAP net profits are expected to be 109.5 billion yuan for FY2026, 167.2 billion yuan for FY2027, and 195.4 billion yuan for FY2028 [11].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has adjusted Alibaba's ADR valuation to $54, maintaining a "Buy" rating, due to the strong predictability of Alibaba Cloud as China's largest cloud service provider [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Alibaba aims to significantly improve the unit economics of its food delivery and instant retail business, with losses peaking in September but halved in October compared to July and August [1] - Goldman Sachs has lowered its growth forecast for core e-commerce EBITA (excluding instant retail) for fiscal years 2026/27/28 from 2%/11%/9% to 1%/5%/5% [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026-28 have been revised down by 12% to an increase of 4%, reflecting a downgrade in customer management revenue growth expectations and reinvestment in e-commerce [1] Group 2: Valuation Adjustments - The 12-month target price based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation method has been reduced from $205/199 HKD to $197/192 HKD, reflecting a downgrade in the valuation of the Chinese e-commerce business [1] - The valuation for Alibaba Cloud remains unchanged, as the company's AI-driven investment theme continues to focus on AI applications in daily consumption (Taobao + Gaode Map) and as a large-scale cloud service provider [1]

智通财经APP获悉，富瑞发布研究报告称，阿里巴巴-W(09988)第二季度总收入分别高于市场及该行预 测1.1%及2.4%，给予"买入"评级。目标价230港元。 数据显示，阿里巴巴期内中国电商集团客户管理收入(CMR)同比增长10%；云业务收入同比增长34%； 经调整EBITA利润率达9%；整体劲调整EBITA达91亿元人民币；资本开支达315亿元人民币。 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has slightly adjusted the valuation of Alibaba's ADR to $54, maintaining a "Buy" rating due to the strong business visibility of Alibaba Cloud, which is the largest hyperscale cloud service provider in China [1] Financial Performance - Alibaba aims to significantly improve the unit economics of its food delivery and instant retail business, with losses peaking in September but halved in October compared to July and August [1] - However, the expectation for customer management revenue growth has been lowered compared to previous quarter comments, leading Goldman Sachs to revise the growth forecast for core e-commerce EBITA (excluding instant retail) for fiscal years 2026/27/28 from 2%/11%/9% to 1%/5%/5% [1] Profit Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has adjusted the forecast for adjusted net profit for fiscal years 2026-28 by -12% to +4%, reflecting the downward revision in customer management revenue growth expectations and reinvestment in e-commerce [1] Target Price Adjustment - The 12-month target price based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation method has been reduced from $205/199 HKD to $197/192 HKD, reflecting the lowered valuation of the Chinese e-commerce business, while maintaining the valuation for Alibaba Cloud [1] Strategic Focus - Alibaba's investment theme driven by AI remains unchanged, focusing on becoming an AI-driven application in daily consumption (Taobao + Amap) and a hyperscale cloud service provider [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Jefferies indicates that Alibaba-W (09988) exceeded market and Jefferies' revenue forecasts for the second quarter by 1.1% and 2.4% respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 230 [1] Financial Performance - Alibaba's China e-commerce group customer management revenue (CMR) grew by 10% year-on-year [1] - Cloud business revenue increased by 34% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted EBITA margin reached 9% [1] - Overall adjusted EBITA amounted to RMB 9.1 billion [1] - Capital expenditures totaled RMB 31.5 billion [1]