全球AI竞赛正加速"铜与电"资源的结构性短缺，尤其在美国，电力市场紧张和铜供应受限或将成为制约AI产业发展的关键瓶颈。 据追风交易台，高盛Daan Struyven分析师团队在最新大宗商品2026年展望报告中警告，美国AI数据中心的爆炸式增长正推动电力需求激增，美国 电力市场面临进一步紧张，存在价格大幅上涨甚至停电的风险，这可能成为拖累美国在AI竞赛中进展的关键瓶颈。 报告指出，AI驱动的数据中心繁荣已将美国年化电力需求增长推至近3%，超过GDP增长率。高盛估算，大部分美国区域电力市场的备用发电容量 已处于或低于关键水平。这种紧张局势已在去年夏季引发实时电价飙升，并推高了包括弗吉尼亚州在内的PJM电力市场的发电容量价格——而弗 吉尼亚州正是全球数据中心之都。 高盛预计，2026年美国电力市场将进一步收紧，电价波动加剧，部分地区甚至可能出现电力供应中断，影响数据中心运营和AI算力扩展。铜价则 受益于全球电气化和AI基础设施建设，尽管短期内价格或有调整，但长期看涨逻辑依然坚实。 美国电力市场告急，AI进展或受阻 高盛报告指出，铜是电气化和AI基础设施不可或缺的原材料，约半数全球铜需求来自电力相关领域，包括数据中心 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reiterates a bullish outlook for gold prices, projecting them to reach $4,900 per ounce by 2026, driven by central bank demand and interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Price Forecast and Drivers - Goldman Sachs maintains its base case forecast of gold prices climbing to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, representing approximately a 14% increase from current levels [2]. - The price increase is attributed to two main factors: structural demand from global central banks and cyclical support from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - The report highlights a structural change in central bank gold purchasing behavior, particularly following the freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves in 2022, which has led emerging market central banks to diversify their reserves away from USD assets towards gold [4]. - Goldman Sachs expects global central bank gold purchases to remain strong, averaging about 70 tons per month in 2026, which is four times the average monthly purchases of 17 tons prior to 2022 [4]. Group 3: Private Investor Potential - In addition to central bank demand, there is significant potential from private investors, with current gold ETF allocations in U.S. private financial portfolios at only 0.17%, down 6 basis points from the peak in 2012 [5]. - If the allocation of gold in U.S. financial portfolios increases by just 1 basis point, it could lead to a 1.4% increase in gold prices, indicating that private capital could significantly boost gold prices beyond current expectations [5]. Group 4: Investment Value - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that in the current macroeconomic environment, gold and commodities provide substantial insurance value in investment portfolios, especially when stock and bond markets fail to effectively hedge against inflation and growth risks [6].

Core Insights - US core inflation unexpectedly eased to a four-year low, raising questions among economists about the reliability of the data due to a prior government shutdown [8][14] - ByteDance has signed an agreement to establish a joint venture in the US with majority ownership by American investors [8][14] Market Performance - The A-share market opened lower but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.16% at 3876.37 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell 1.29% and the ChiNext Index dropped 2.17% [1] - The Hong Kong market also saw fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.12% at 25498.13 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.73% [1][5] Economic Indicators - The US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-on-year in November, while the overall CPI increased by 2.7% [14] - The report indicated that core CPI only increased by 0.2% over the last two months, with declines in hotel, leisure, and clothing prices limiting the overall increase [14] Corporate Developments - TikTok announced the establishment of a joint venture with US investors, which will operate independently and manage US data protection and algorithm security [8][14] - China has reportedly ordered 7 million tons of US soybeans, achieving over half of the procurement target set during the Trump administration [8][14]

Summary of Key Points from the Macro Outlook 2026 Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on global economic growth forecasts for 2026, with specific attention to the US, China, and the Euro area, highlighting macroeconomic trends and potential investment opportunities. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global Growth Forecast**: Expected global growth of 2.8% in 2026, surpassing the consensus forecast of 2.5% [2][4] - **US Economic Performance**: The US is projected to grow at 2.6%, significantly above the consensus of 2.0%, driven by reduced tariff impacts, tax cuts, and improved financial conditions [2][5] - **China's Resilience**: China is forecasted to grow at 4.8%, slightly above the consensus of 4.5%, supported by strong exports despite sluggish domestic demand [2][16] - **Euro Area Growth**: The Euro area is expected to grow at 1.3%, aided by fiscal stimulus in Germany and robust growth in Spain, despite underlying structural weaknesses [2][27] - **Job Market Outlook**: The job market remains weak, with rising unemployment rates in the US despite solid GDP growth, indicating a disconnect between economic growth and job creation [2][35] - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation is expected to stabilize near target levels, with core inflation in the US and UK projected to decrease from around 3% to near 2% by the end of 2026 [2][38] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: Anticipated Fed rate cuts of 50 basis points to a range of 3-3.25%, with dovish risks due to disinflation and labor market concerns [2][62] - **Market Implications**: The forecasts are favorable for equities and emerging market assets, with expectations of better US growth and lower inflation not fully priced into the markets [2][79] Additional Important Insights - **AI Investment Impact**: The direct impact of AI investment on GDP growth is currently negligible, with potential future benefits not yet realized in broader economic metrics [2][8] - **China's Current Account Surplus**: Expected to rise to nearly 1% of global GDP by 2029, which may negatively impact competing economies, particularly in Europe [2][22] - **Structural Weaknesses in Euro Area**: Increased competition from China exacerbates existing issues such as demographic decline and high energy costs, leading to a downward revision of growth estimates [2][25] - **Labor Market Dynamics**: The disconnect between productivity gains and job growth raises concerns about the sustainability of economic recovery, particularly in the US [2][32] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report suggests that sectors benefiting from US demand and China's export growth may present attractive investment opportunities, despite potential volatility [2][84] This summary encapsulates the key points from the macroeconomic outlook, emphasizing growth forecasts, inflation trends, and the implications for investment strategies across different regions and sectors.

Key Takeaways from the 2026 Macro Research Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global economy, particularly the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, with specific emphasis on the US, Europe, and China. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Sturdy and Above-Consensus Growth** - Global growth is forecasted at **2.8%** for 2026, with the US expected to grow at **2.6%**, surpassing the consensus of **2.0%** and this year's estimated **2.1%**. The growth is attributed to fading tariff impacts, tax cuts boosting disposable incomes, and easing financial conditions due to Fed rate cuts and deregulation [2][3][10] - China is projected to grow at **4.8%**, driven by strong export growth despite sluggish domestic demand [3][10] - The Euro area is expected to grow at **1.3%**, slightly above consensus, supported by strong growth in Spain and fiscal stimulus in Germany [3][10] 2. **Target-Consistent Inflation in Sight** - Core inflation in the US and UK is expected to decrease from around **3%** to slightly above **2%** by the end of 2026, as tariff impacts and administered price hikes diminish [6][10] - Disinflation is anticipated to progress, reducing the risk of high inflation, with further monetary easing expected in the US (50 basis points), UK (75 basis points), and many emerging markets [6][10] 3. **A Broadening Bull Market Favors Equity Diversification** - The macro environment is expected to support a broadening equity bull market, with forecasts of **13%** price returns and **15%** total returns in 2026 [10][12] - Investors are encouraged to diversify across regions, factors, and sectors, with a focus on emerging markets and a selective combination of growth and value strategies [10][12] 4. **Not Your 2025 Dollar Depreciation Story** - A solid global growth backdrop may lead to further Dollar depreciation, but it is expected to be shallower than in previous years. High-beta G10 currencies are likely to benefit from this trend [13][10] 5. **Protection Remains Key** - Several risks are highlighted, including potential deterioration in the US labor market, institutional risks from a new Fed chair, trade and geopolitical conflicts, and pressures on the AI theme [14][10] - Recommendations for protection include positioning for higher equity volatility and potential credit underperformance, as well as considering bonds as a hedge against risks [14][10] Other Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of diversification and protection in investment strategies, given the anticipated macroeconomic conditions and potential risks [2][14][10] - The analysis suggests that while the macro environment is friendly, investors should remain cautious of elevated equity valuations and market volatility [12][14][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that global stock markets are expected to continue rising in the coming year due to corporate earnings growth and the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy [1] - The report indicates that the 12-month stock return forecast, weighted by regional market capitalization, suggests a return of 13% in US dollar terms for 2026, which includes a total return of 15% when dividends are accounted for [1]

Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to rise by 14% to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, based on its base case scenario [1] - The report highlights that structural high demand from central banks and cyclical support from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts will drive gold prices up [1] - The firm continues to recommend a long position in gold due to these factors [1] Group 2: Copper Price Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will stabilize by 2026, with an average annual price of $11,400 per ton under its base case scenario [1] - Despite recent price increases, copper remains the firm's "preferred" industrial metal due to strong demand growth driven by electrification and supply constraints [1] - Last week, copper prices reached a historical high of $11,952 per ton [2] Group 3: Oil Price Projections - The firm forecasts Brent and WTI crude oil prices to decline, with average prices of $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively, by 2026 [2] - Oil prices are expected to hit a low around mid-2026 as the market anticipates a rebalancing of supply and demand [2] - Factors influencing this include stable demand growth of approximately 1.2 million barrels per day and potential declines in Russian supply due to ongoing conflicts and sanctions [2] Group 4: Long-term Oil Price Expectations - Goldman Sachs indicates that its oil price outlook for 2026-2027 faces downside risks, but prices are expected to rebound in Q4 of next year as the market anticipates a return to supply shortages [3] - By the end of 2028, Brent and WTI prices are projected to gradually rise to $80 and $76 per barrel, respectively [3] Group 5: Natural Gas Price Forecast - The firm predicts that the Dutch TTF natural gas price will be €29 per MWh in 2026 and €20 per MWh in 2027, to stimulate additional demand [3] - U.S. natural gas prices are expected to reach $4.60 per million British thermal units in 2026 and $3.80 in 2027, encouraging production growth [3] Group 6: Electricity Market Risks - Goldman Sachs anticipates a further decline in U.S. electricity reserve capacity due to rapid demand growth and the retirement of coal-fired generation outpacing the construction of renewable and natural gas generation [3] - This situation poses risks of significant price increases and potential blackouts in the U.S. electricity market, particularly in areas with high concentrations of data centers [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to outperform aluminum prices by 2026, maintaining a bullish stance on copper and a bearish outlook on aluminum [1] Group 1: Copper Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its long-term copper price forecast of $15,000 per ton by 2035 [1] - The average copper price is projected to stabilize at $11,400 per ton in a baseline scenario for 2026 [1] Group 2: Aluminum Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs predicts that aluminum prices will decline by 19% from current spot prices by the end of 2026, reaching $2,350 per ton [1]

Precious Metals Futures - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will rise by 14% to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, with potential upside risks [1] - On December 19, New York futures gold prices rose, breaking through $4,380 per ounce (up 0.14%), $4,390 per ounce (up 0.37%), and ultimately surpassing $4,400 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.60% [2][3][4] - Spot gold also increased, breaking through $4,350 per ounce (up 0.29%), $4,360 per ounce (up 0.55%), and further rising to $4,370 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.74% [5][6][7] - However, on December 18, precious metal prices experienced a pullback, with New York futures gold falling below $4,340 per ounce (down 0.78%) and spot gold below $4,310 per ounce (down 0.65%) [8][9] - Silver showed weaker performance, with New York futures silver falling below $65 per ounce (down 2.85%) and spot silver also below $65 per ounce (down 1.84%) [10][11] Base Metals Futures - Goldman Sachs reaffirms that copper prices will reach $15,000 per ton by 2035 and continues to recommend a long position in copper and a short position in aluminum for contracts expiring in December 2027 [12] Energy and Shipping Futures - In the energy market, U.S. natural gas futures prices fell over 3.00% on December 19, currently reported at $3.233 per million British thermal units, with the decline expanding to 4.00%, now at $3.199 per million British thermal units [14][15] - The EIA natural gas report shows that as of the week ending December 12, U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 35,790 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 1,670 billion cubic feet from the previous week and down 610 billion cubic feet year-on-year (a 1.7% decline), while being 320 billion cubic feet above the 5-year average (a 0.9% increase) [16] - Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2026, the average price of Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate crude oil will drop to $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively [17] Macroeconomic and Market Impact - The European Central Bank's policy direction is under scrutiny, with several officials indicating that the rate-cutting cycle is likely over, maintaining deposit rates at around 2% unless a significant shock occurs; however, discussions on rate hikes are considered "premature" [18][19] - The ECB also forecasts that inflation rates will be below 2% in the first quarter of 2026 and from the third quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2027 [20] - In the U.S., concerns about premature significant rate cuts were expressed, while the White House's National Economic Council director believes there is substantial room for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [21][23] - Several banks have recently lowered U.S. dollar deposit rates, with one bank reporting a decrease of 0.05 percentage points in its latest dollar time deposit rates [24]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming expiration of over $7.1 trillion in options contracts on Wall Street is expected to create significant market volatility, marking a historic event known as "quadruple witching" [1][2]. Group 1: Record Option Expiration - This week's expiration is unprecedented in scale, with over $7.1 trillion in nominal risk exposure set to expire, surpassing all previous records [2]. - Approximately $5 trillion of this exposure is linked to the S&P 500 index, while an additional $880 billion is associated with individual stocks [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics on Quadruple Witching Day - Quadruple witching occurs four times a year, leading to heightened trading activity as traders and market makers engage in significant closing, rolling, or hedging operations [4]. - The trading volume of zero-day-to-expiration options related to the S&P 500 has reached a historical high, accounting for over 62% of total options trading volume, further complicating the market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Potential Market Impacts - The massive options expiration could lead to increased market volatility, with expectations of trading volumes exceeding normal levels as traders settle their positions [5]. - Conversely, there is a possibility of a "pin" effect, where stock prices stabilize around heavily traded strike prices due to market makers' hedging activities [6]. Group 4: Technical Levels and Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 index is currently in a "negative gamma" zone between 6700 and 6900 points, indicating a tendency for amplified volatility [7]. - The 6800-point level is identified as a critical "risk pivot," with potential implications for market direction depending on whether the index can maintain above or falls below this threshold [7].