Market Trends - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.8%, ending a four-day decline, with historical data indicating a 75% probability of an increase in the last two weeks of December, averaging a 1.3% gain since 1928 [1] - Optimism regarding strong economic performance and corporate earnings is supporting investor confidence, despite ongoing concerns about AI-related valuations [3] - A recent inflation report, which was below expectations, has boosted expectations for further interest rate cuts next year, contributing to a rebound in the U.S. stock market [3] Investment Behavior - Traders are significantly buying call options for chip manufacturers and large-cap tech stocks, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [3] - Derivatives traders are expressing confidence by buying call spreads on companies like NVIDIA and Micron Technology while selling put options on major tech stocks [4] - Retail investors have shown sustained interest, with 32 out of the last 33 weeks being net buyers of bullish options on U.S. stocks, marking the longest continuous net buying period recorded [4] Institutional Investor Sentiment - Institutional investors have become more optimistic, with significant purchases of call options across the market and interest in sectors beyond large tech stocks, particularly in economically sensitive real estate and industrial stocks [5] - The S&P 500's 10-day realized volatility has dropped to one of its lowest levels this year, potentially encouraging volatility-targeting funds to increase stock exposure [5] - There is an expectation for further compression in volatility, which may provide additional leverage opportunities for hedge funds employing systematic strategies [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is expected to experience volatility on Friday due to quadruple witching, with over $7.1 trillion in nominal value of options contracts expiring, marking a historical record [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts indicate that Friday's options expiration could be the largest ever, with approximately $5 trillion in options linked to the S&P 500 and $880 billion linked to individual stocks [1] - The nominal exposure of the expiring options represents about 10.2% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 index [1] Group 2 - Jeff Kilburg, CEO of KKM Financial, suggests that trading volume will likely exceed normal levels as options traders settle their gains and losses, with a key strike price of 6800 for the S&P 500 index [1] - Despite increased overall market volume and volatility, individual stocks with large open interest may experience a "pin" effect, potentially stabilizing prices [1] - Goldman Sachs highlights specific stocks, including GeneDx Holdings, BILL Holdings, Avis, and GameStop, which have a high ratio of expiring options to their average daily trading volume, making them more susceptible to the "pin" phenomenon [2]

Core Viewpoint - Traders have been speculating about the typical year-end "Santa Claus rally" throughout December, and it appears they may finally see it materialize as the S&P 500 index rose by 0.8% on Thursday, ending a four-day decline [1] Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has been declining throughout December until the recent uptick, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] - Historical data compiled by Castle Securities shows that since 1928, the S&P 500 index has a 75% probability of rising in the last two weeks of December, with an average increase of 1.3% [1] - Goldman Sachs trading team, including Gail Hafif, suggests that unless a significant shock occurs, the upcoming seasonal bullish period and favorable positioning are likely to drive the market higher [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses an unprecedented options expiration event on Wall Street, with over $7.1 trillion in notional value set to expire, marking a historical record [2] - This event, known as "quadruple witching," occurs when four types of derivative contracts expire simultaneously, leading to increased market activity and volatility [4] Group 1: Options Expiration Details - The expiration event includes approximately $5 trillion linked to the S&P 500 index and $880 billion related to individual stocks, representing about 10.2% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 index [2] - The S&P 500 index has risen about 15% this year, trading around 6770 points, which adds to the significance of this record options expiration [2] Group 2: Market Impact and Volatility - The massive options expiration could lead to two contrasting effects: increased market volatility or a "pin" effect that stabilizes prices around key strike prices [5] - High trading volumes are expected as options traders close out positions, particularly around the critical level of 6800 points for the S&P 500 index [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 index is currently in a "negative gamma" zone between 6700 and 6900 points, indicating a tendency for amplified volatility [6] - SpotGamma identifies 6800 points as a critical "risk pivot," suggesting that maintaining above this level could signal the start of a bullish trend, while staying below may lead to downward pressure [6]

Economic Growth Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts global economic growth to be robust at 2.8% in 2026, surpassing market expectations of 2.5% [1] - The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.6%, driven by reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and a more accommodative financial environment [1] - China's economy is projected to maintain resilience with a growth rate of 4.8%, as strong export performance offsets weak domestic demand [1] - The Eurozone's economic growth is predicted to be 1.3% next year, supported by fiscal stimulus in Germany and strong growth in Spain [1] Labor Market and Inflation - The labor market outlook is less optimistic, as accelerated productivity increases the GDP growth threshold needed to create jobs, particularly evident in the U.S. where unemployment is rising despite steady GDP growth [1] - Inflation is expected to decline to near target levels by the end of 2026 across most economies, with core inflation in the U.S. and the UK projected to slow from around 3% to near 2% [1] - Factors contributing to lower inflation include reduced tariff pass-through, easing administrative prices, and slowing wage and housing inflation, alongside falling oil prices and increased Chinese commodity supply [1] Interest Rate Expectations - The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to a range of 3% to 3.25%, with dovish risks present [2] - The UK and many emerging markets are also expected to reduce interest rates, with the UK potentially cutting by 75 basis points [2] - The Eurozone is expected to maintain current interest rates, and the market's expectations for rate hikes in Canada and Australia are disagreed upon by Goldman Sachs [2] Asset Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs holds a positive view on equities and many emerging market assets, believing that cyclical factors will dominate the market, outweighing valuation concerns [2] - However, there may be increased volatility due to tensions between these two factors, with market focus shifting to the trend of re-leveraging potentially leading to underperformance in credit [2] - Key risks include a fragile labor market potentially triggering recession fears and stock markets questioning the value of AI-related revenues [2] - The dollar is expected to gradually weaken unless stronger U.S. growth leads to a reassessment of rate cut expectations, with declines likely concentrated in currencies sensitive to the economic cycle [2]

高盛周四发布报告称，预计到2026年12月，金价将在基本假设下上涨14%至每盎司4900美元，并指出由 于私人投资者多元化配置可能扩大，金价存在上行风险。 因市场开始预期再平衡，高盛预计油价将在2026年中旬左右触及低点。报告指出，这将由约每日120万 桶的坚实需求增长、乌克兰战争及制裁持续下俄罗斯供应进一步下降，以及非OPEC(除俄罗斯外)产量 增速放缓所驱动。"我们认为2026-2027年油价展望存在下行风险，"高盛表示。 然而，高盛称，因市场开始计价2027年下半年将重返供应短缺，并转向关注激励长周期生产，其假设油 价将在明年第四季度回升。报告补充称，预计到2028年末，布伦特和WTI油价将分别逐步回升至每桶80 美元和76美元。 对于天然气，高盛预测2026年所有权转让设施价格为每兆瓦时29欧元，2027年为20欧元以激励额外需 求;同时预计2026和2027年美国天然气价格将分别维持在每百万英热单位4.60美元和3.80美元，以刺激美 国天然气产量增长。 高盛表示，预计美国电力备用容量将进一步下降，因电力需求快速增长和燃煤电厂退役超过可再生能源 和天然气发电装机增量。"因此，美国电力市场面临价格显著 ...

高盛称，2026年将成为石油供应波动的最后一年，而液化天然气供应激增将持续至2032年，两大供应浪潮将显著压制全球油气 价格。 12月19日，据追风交易台消息，高盛在最新发布的2025-2026年大宗商品展望报告中发出明确信号：微观层面的"供应浪潮"将主 导未来几年的能源价格走势。 该行预计 2026年将迎来"最后一次大规模供应浪潮"，导致市场出现日均200万桶的过剩，布伦特原油价格预计在2026年平均跌至 56美元/桶，并在年中触底。分析师表示，除非出现大规模供应中断或OPEC+大幅减产，否则2026年油价走低将是市场再平衡的 必然选择。 研报称，高盛分析师Daan Struyven团队指出，2025年开始的微观基本面——即大规模的供应浪潮，将是压制油价的主要力量。 不同于天然气的长期过剩，石油的供应过剩相对短暂，主要集中在2025-2026年。 该行预测， 由于长周期项目（主要是在疫情前做出最终投资决定FIDs的项目）集中上线，叠加OPEC解除减产的战略决定， 2026年全球原油市场将面临日均200万桶的供应盈余。 这波供应冲击预计在2026年结束，使其成为"最后一次大型供应浪潮"。受此影响，高盛预计20 ...

高盛称，2026年将成为石油供应波动的最后一年，而液化天然气供应激增将持续至2032年，两大供应浪潮将显著压制全球油气 价格。 12月19日，据追风交易台消息，高盛在最新发布的2025-2026年大宗商品展望报告中发出明确信号：微观层面的"供应浪潮"将主 导未来几年的能源价格走势。 该行预计 2026年将迎来"最后一次大规模供应浪潮"，导致市场出现日均200万桶的过剩，布伦特原油价格预计在2026年平均跌至 56美元/桶，并在年中触底。分析师表示，除非出现大规模供应中断或OPEC+大幅减产，否则2026年油价走低将是市场再平衡的 必然选择。 在明年中期触底之后，高盛预计，油价2026年四季度开启回升，因为随着市场开始计价2027年下半年的供应短缺，关注点将转 向激励长周期生产。 报告指出，为满足2030年代及2040年的需求增长并弥补老油田的自然衰退，油价需回升以刺激投资。高盛预计到2028年底，布 伦特/WTI价格将逐步回升至80美元/76美元。 （布伦特原油日线走势图） 同时，高盛预计，天然气市场面临史无前例的超长周期供应过剩。全球LNG供应在2025-2030年激增超过50%，欧洲天然气价格 （TTF） ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on December 18 is unlikely to materially change the Federal Reserve's near-term policy outlook [1] - The firm emphasizes that the December inflation data, to be released before the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, will hold greater significance for policymakers assessing ongoing price pressures [1] - Recent core CPI performance below expectations is attributed to technical and timing-related factors rather than a comprehensive easing of underlying inflation [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns against overinterpreting the recent weakness in CPI, noting that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has not clarified how it will address identified data distortions, which increases the likelihood of a reversal in some of the recent drag factors in the coming months [2] - The firm expects the weakness in housing components to partially rebound in future data releases, while commodity inflation may see a slight acceleration in December [2] - Goldman Sachs believes the Federal Reserve will remain patient, relying on a broader array of data rather than a single CPI reading when making policy decisions into early 2026 [2]

智通财经APP获悉，英国央行于12月18日作出降息决定，这一举措进一步强化了市场的预期：英国央行 正迈入一个更为持久的宽松周期。在当前经济动能持续走弱的背景下，高盛仍预测该行在2026年会多次 降息。高盛在研究报告中指出，预计英国央行将分别于3月、6月、9月各下调利率25个基点。 尽管当前市场对降息路径的定价呈现出较为渐进的态势，但高盛认为，倘若后续公布的数据持续印证上 述趋势，那么英国央行降息的力度或许会超出投资者的预期。该行表示，疲弱的经济活动数据将使政策 制定者更有底气、更倾向于采取鸽派立场，尤其是在通胀预期依然保持锚定的情形之下。 12月实施的降息举措，标志着英国央行政策叙事方向发生了转变，这表明，其风险平衡的天平已从应对 持续通胀问题，转向助力经济增长。不过，政策制定者预计仍会秉持数据依赖原则，密切留意工资变动 情况、服务领域通胀走势以及更为广泛的金融环境状况。 总体而言，高盛的最新预测凸显市场愈发确信英国央行的紧缩阶段已彻底结束，接下来的挑战在于如何 校准降息的节奏与幅度，以适应英国经济走弱的现实。 从市场视角看，英国央行政策前景的动态演变，将影响英国利率走势、英镑汇率表现以及相对货币政策 差异格 ...