【美股盘前】英伟达涨近1%，市场聚焦黄仁勋 GTC大会主题演讲；知名中概股盘前普涨 蔚来、理 想汽车均涨超5% ①【知名中概股盘前普涨，蔚来、理想汽车均涨超5%】截至发稿，道指期货涨0.02%、标普500指 数期货涨0.05%、纳指期货跌0.16%。知名中概股盘前普涨，百度涨超4%；蔚来、理想汽车均涨超5%； 京东涨近2%、 ②【英伟达盘前涨近1%，市场聚焦黄仁勋GTC大会主题演讲】截至发稿，英伟达盘前涨0.79%。消 息面上，北京时间3月19日凌晨1时，黄仁勋将在GTC大会上发表主题演讲。投资者们最为关注的是，英 伟达Blackwell产品线的最新进展，以及黄仁勋对毛利率、中国市场、竞争对手和增长前景的评论。今 年迄今，英伟达股价下跌超过12%，公司近期较3月上旬的低谷有所反弹。 ③【现货黄金突破3020美元/盎司，再创新高】现货黄金日内连续上破3010美元/盎司和3020美元/盎 司两道关口，再创历史新高，日内涨幅为0.62%，今年迄今累计涨超15%。 ④【桥水旗舰基金年内大涨11.3%】桥水的旗舰对冲基金Pure Alpha II年初至上周累计增长11.3%。 相比之下，在美国总统特朗普的贸易政策引发市 ...

Asian Autos Li Auto Inc 14 March 2025 Eunice Lee, CFA +852 2123 2606 eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Mika Fu +852 2166 4805 mika.fu@bernsteinsg.com Frankie Fong +852 2123 2637 frankie.fong@bernsteinsg.com Li Auto: Q4 results mixed; New BEVs and Overseas strategy keep us constructive Q4 saw mixed results — vehicle margin miss, operating margin strong. Q4 revenue reached RMB 44.3bn, up 6.1% yoy and 3.3% qoq. Sales volume arrived at 158.7 units, up 20.4% yoy and 3.8% qoq. ASP declined to RMB 268.7k, -12.3% yoy and ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto reported a decline in earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 2024, despite an increase in revenues driven by higher vehicle deliveries Financial Performance - Q4 2024 EPS was 52 cents, down from 60 cents in the prior-year quarter [1] - Revenues increased to $6.1 billion from $5.9 billion year-over-year, primarily due to a 20.4% increase in vehicle deliveries [1][2] - Vehicle sales amounted to $5.8 billion, reflecting a 5.6% year-over-year increase [3] - Gross profit for Q4 was $1.2 billion, down 8.3% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 20.3%, compared to 23.5% in the prior-year quarter [3] Operating Metrics - Operating expenses decreased by 22% to $721.6 million [4] - Income from operations rose by 22% year-over-year to $507.4 million, with an operating margin of 8.4% [4] - Non-GAAP net income for the quarter was $553.4 million, down 12% year-over-year [4] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.2 billion, a significant decrease of 49.8% from the previous year [5] - Free cash flow fell 58.6% to $830.1 million [5] - As of December 31, 2024, cash and cash equivalents were $9.03 billion, down from $12.86 billion a year earlier [5] - Long-term borrowings increased to $1.12 billion from $246 million year-over-year [5] Q1 2025 Outlook - For Q1 2025, Li Auto expects vehicle deliveries between 88,000 and 93,000, indicating year-over-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [6] - Total revenues are projected to be between $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion, suggesting a year-over-year decrease of 8.7% to 3.5% [6]

In stark contrast with western electric vehicle (EV) makers, who have been struggling as of late, Chinese companies in the space have performed quite well since the start of the year. Li Auto (NYSE: LI) is one such business — and despite a recent slump, Wall Street seems confident that the best is yet to come.On March 1, the automaker released its February 2025 delivery figures. The company delivered 13,192 vehicles in the second month of the year, constituting a 29.7% year-over-year (YoY) increase. The pri ...

Summary of Li Auto's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Auto - **Industry**: Automotive, specifically focusing on electric vehicles and smart driving technology Key Points and Arguments 2024 Performance and Financials - Li Auto achieved a total sales volume exceeding 500,000 vehicles in 2024, with Q4 deliveries reaching a record high of 158,000 vehicles [3] - Q4 revenue was 44.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3% [3] - Net profit for Q4 was 3.5 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25%, although it declined year-on-year [3] R&D Investment - The company increased its R&D expenditure to over 11 billion yuan in 2024, which is crucial for enhancing competitiveness in smart driving and AI [3] - Despite the impact on profit margins, cash flow remains healthy [3][4] Future Projections for 2025 - Li Auto anticipates Q1 2025 delivery volumes between 88,000 and 93,000 vehicles, with sales revenue projected between 23.4 billion and 24.7 billion yuan [3][4] - The company plans to launch new electric platforms and models, including the I8 and I6, while expanding its charging network with an additional 1,420 supercharging stations [3][4] Smart Driving Strategy - Li Auto's smart driving strategy is clear and forward-looking, with significant investments in technology, manpower, and data reserves since entering a profitable cycle in 2023 [5] - The company has achieved a leading position in domestic autonomous driving data and has significantly improved its computing power and algorithm capabilities [5] Market Growth and New Models - Following strategic adjustments in 2024, Li Auto is poised for growth in the pure electric series, with expectations of accelerated sales in the second half of 2025 [6] - The introduction of new models, particularly the I8, is expected to drive overall sales growth [6] Transition to AGI - Li Auto's long-term strategy includes a transition from smart driving to AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), leveraging existing resources for broader product development [7] - The similarities between smart driving and robotics technology support this strategic direction [7] Automotive Industry Advantages - The automotive industry is characterized by high reliability, low costs, and efficient production capabilities, making it well-suited for entering the robotics sector [8] AI and AGI Strategic Planning - Li Auto has a long-term plan for AI and AGI, with recent personnel adjustments to focus on these areas [9] - The company is reallocating resources from its smart driving team to develop foundational models for AI [9][11] Valuation and Investment Potential - Li Auto's current price-to-sales (PS) ratio is slightly above one, while industry leader Xiaomi has a PS ratio of five [10] - Given Li Auto's sales, profitability, and overall strength, a valuation of 2 to 3 times the industry average is deemed reasonable, presenting a favorable investment opportunity [10] Personnel Changes - Recent personnel changes include Ma Donghui overseeing the entire smart vehicle business, while Li Xiang focuses on AI and AGI strategy [11] - These adjustments indicate a clear direction for the company's organizational structure and strategic planning [11]

Summary of Li Auto's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Auto - **Industry**: New Energy Vehicles (NEV) in China Key Achievements and Market Position - In 2024, China's NEV market penetration exceeded 50% for several months, reaching an annual rate of 45.9%, a 12 percentage point increase year-over-year [1][2] - Li Auto led the Chinese auto brands in the CN¥200,000+ NEV market with a 15.3% market share [1][2] - Achieved record Q4 2024 deliveries of over 158,000 vehicles, surpassing 500,000 units for the full year, becoming the first emerging NEV brand and Chinese premium auto brand to reach this milestone [1][2] Financial Performance - Q4 2024 total revenue reached RMB 44.3 billion, with full-year 2024 revenue at RMB 144.5 billion [1][3] - Cash reserves stood at RMB 112.8 billion by the end of December 2024, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [1][3] - For Q1 2025, vehicle deliveries are projected between 88,000 and 93,000 units, indicating continued growth momentum [1][4] Technological Advancements - Launched AD Max v1.3 in January 2025, featuring upgraded autonomous driving capabilities across urban and highway scenarios [1][5] - R&D investments exceeded RMB 11 billion in 2024, focusing on advancements in autonomous driving systems [1][6] - Introduced large models trained on 10 million video clips, demonstrating industry-leading performance in autonomous driving [1][6] Supercharging Network Expansion - Expanding supercharging network to 2,500 stations by the launch of Li L8 and 4,000 by the end of 2025, with existing stations maintaining high uptime rates [1][7] Sales and Service Network Improvements - Improved retail store quality and efficiency, increasing sales centers from 24% to 42% by the end of 2024 [1][8] - Opened 500 retail stores across 150 cities nationwide, with ongoing efforts for overseas expansion [1][8] Future Product Launches - Plans to launch two new pure electric SUVs in 2025: Ideal L8 in July and Ideal L6 in the second half of the year [1][11] - Anticipates strong sales momentum during Q3 and Q4 2025 due to these launches [1][13] AI Strategy and Future Developments - Li Auto aims to position itself as a leading hardware device manufacturer in the AGI era, focusing on advanced cognitive functions and integrated robotics [1][15][16] - Plans to significantly increase investment in AI-related initiatives over the next few years [1][15] Market Outlook and Competition - Anticipates NEV penetration to continue rising in 2026, with a shift from growth competition to market share competition [1][18] - Plans to expand product portfolio and invest in autonomous driving technologies to maintain competitive edge [1][19] Monetization Opportunities - As L4 autonomous driving technology becomes prevalent, there will be new monetization opportunities for in-car software services [1][20] Gross Margin Expectations - Expected Q1 2025 vehicle gross margin is around 19% due to seasonal factors and sales promotions [1][21] International Expansion Plans - Focus on international expansion, particularly in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, with established service centers and partnerships [1][25]

2025 年 3 月 15 日 公司研究 聚焦纯电爬坡+出海战略，长期看好 AI 智能化兑现 ——理想汽车（LI.O）跟踪报告 要点 2024 全年业绩披露，基本符合预期：2024 理想汽车收入同比+16.6%至 1,444.6 亿元（vs. 我们预期 1,462 亿元），毛利率同比-1.7pcts 至 20.5%，Non-GAAP 归母净利润同比-11.9%至 106.6 亿元（vs. 我们预期 111 亿元）；其中，4Q24 收入同比+6.1%/环比+3.3%至 442.7 亿元，毛利率同比-3.2pcts/环比-1.2pcts 至 20.3%，Non-GAAP 归母净利润同比-10.3%/环比+4.8%至 40.3 亿元。 毛利率略低于预期，单车盈利环比表现稳定：1）4Q24 汽车业务收入同比+5.6%/ 环比+3.2%至 426.4 亿元（ASP 同比-12.3%/环比-0.6%至 26.9 万元）；汽车业 务毛利率同比-3.0pcts/环比-1.2pcts 至 19.7%，主要由于低价格带车型 L6 占比 抬升、供应商补偿、以及免息购车优惠推出，毛利率表现略低于预期。2）4Q24 研发费用率同比-3 ...

维持"增持"评级：2025E 理想已开启全新智能+纯电+出海战略，2025E 聚焦 L 系列销量恢复、以及纯电爬坡兑现。鉴于行业竞争加剧、纯电新车型爬坡前景尚 未明确，下调 2025E-2026E Non-GAAP 归母净利润至 111 亿元/186 亿元（vs. 之 前预计分别约 154 亿元/264 亿元），预计 2027E Non-GAAP 归母净利润约 202 亿元。我们看好理想基于家庭用户的明确定位与智能化的兑现能力；鉴于市场基 于增程车型的预期已相对充分、纯电新车型仍待突破推进，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：需求不及预期+订单回落；竞争加剧；毛利率不及预期；市场风险等。 2025 年 3 月 15 日 公司研究 聚焦纯电爬坡+出海战略，长期看好 AI 智能化兑现 ——理想汽车（LI.O）跟踪报告 要点 2024 全年业绩披露，基本符合预期：2024 理想汽车收入同比+16.6%至 1,444.6 亿元（vs. 我们预期 1,462 亿元），毛利率同比-1.7pcts 至 20.5%，Non-GAAP 归母净利润同比-11.9%至 106.6 亿元（vs. 我们预期 111 亿元）；其中，4Q24 ...

【导读】理想汽车发布2024年财报，营收达1445亿元，净利润为80亿元 中国基金报记者吴君 3月14日，理想汽车公布了2024年第四季度及全年财报。财报显示，2024年公司实现营收1445亿元，同 比增长16.6%；净利润为80亿元，同比下滑31.9%；截至2024年末，理想汽车现金储备增至1128亿元。 2024年理想交付了50.05万辆，同比增长33.1%。 在随后的业绩交流会上，理想汽车董事长李想透露，今年将会发布两款全新的纯电SUV，公司正在研发 下一代VLA智驾大模型，并计划与i8同时发布。 2024年实现总收入1445亿元 现金储备增至1128亿元 根据财报信息，理想汽车2024年全年实现总收入1445亿元，同比增长16.6%，连续两年突破千亿元，但 增速较2023年显著放缓；其中，第四季度公司营收为443亿元，环比增长3.3%。 同时，理想汽车2024年净利润为80亿元，较2023年的118亿元同比下降31.9%；非美会计准则净利润为 106.7亿元，同比下降12.5%。其中，第四季度净利润为35亿元，环比增长25.3%，但同比减少38.6%。尽 管净利润下滑，但理想已经连续多个季度实现盈利。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, total revenues reached RMB 44.3 billion (approximately US$ 6.1 billion), up 6.1% year-over-year and 3.3% quarter-over-quarter [27] - Full year total revenues amounted to RMB 144.5 billion [11] - Gross profit for Q4 was RMB 9 billion (approximately US$ 1.2 billion), down 8.3% year-over-year and 2.8% quarter-over-quarter [28] - Net income in Q4 was RMB 3.5 billion (approximately US$ 484 million), down 38.6% year-over-year but up 25.3% quarter-over-quarter [32] - Cash on hand as of December 31, 2024, was RMB 112.8 billion (approximately US$ 15.5 billion) [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Vehicle sales in Q4 contributed RMB 42.6 billion (approximately US$ 5.8 billion), up 5.6% year-over-year and 3.2% quarter-over-quarter [27] - Vehicle margin in Q4 was 19.7%, compared to 22.7% in the same period last year [28] - R&D expenses in Q4 were RMB 2.4 billion (approximately US$ 329.9 million), down 31% year-over-year [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, Li Auto delivered over 158,000 vehicles in Q4, setting a new quarterly record [9] - Full year deliveries exceeded 500,000 units, making Li Auto the first emerging NEV brand to reach this milestone [10] - The NEV penetration rate in China reached 45.9% for the full year, up 12 percentage points year-over-year [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to launch two pure electric SUVs in 2025, the Li i8 in July and the Li i6 in the second half of the year [39] - Focus on enhancing R&D investments, particularly in autonomous driving and artificial intelligence, with R&D investments exceeding RMB 11 billion in 2024 [13] - Expansion of the supercharging network, aiming for 2,500 stations by the launch of Li i8 and 4,000 by the end of 2025 [19] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects continued growth in 2024, targeting 88,000 to 93,000 vehicle deliveries in Q1 [12] - The company anticipates a year-over-year increase in deliveries despite a challenging competitive landscape [46] - Management believes that the market will transition from competing for growth to competing for market share, emphasizing brand recognition [66] Other Important Information - The company has established an overseas expansion department and opened R&D centers in Munich, Germany [22][86] - Li MEGA has been a top seller in its segment, with expected annual sales between 10,000 and 15,000 units [81] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the latest launch timing and highlights of new BEV models? - The company plans to launch the Li i8 in July and the Li i6 in the second half of 2025, focusing on user experience and delivery [39] Question: How does the company view sales growth against competition? - The strategy includes product upgrades, expanding the sales network, and enhancing marketing practices [46] Question: What is the scale of AI-related investment in the coming years? - Investments in AI will see substantial growth, primarily funded by cash from operations, focusing on developing capabilities in autonomous driving [54] Question: What is the outlook for the auto and EV industry in 2026? - The NEV penetration rate is expected to increase, with competition shifting towards market share and brand recognition becoming crucial [66] Question: What is the first quarter gross margin guidance? - The expected Q1 vehicle gross margin is around 19% due to seasonal factors and sales promotions [75] Question: What is the long-term plan for internationalization? - The company aims to expand its overseas market presence, focusing on branding, marketing, and after-sales service [86]