Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the potential for Asia to achieve a sustainable rebalancing, suggesting that while the current account surplus may narrow, the consumption-to-GDP ratio is unlikely to change significantly, indicating that true and lasting rebalancing may not be achieved [2][8][35] Summary by Sections Current Account Trends - The report details the trends in bilateral current account balances between Asia and the US, highlighting that Asia's trade surplus with the US reached USD 760 billion, accounting for 55% of the US trade deficit [7][12] - It predicts that Asia's current account surplus as a percentage of GDP will narrow, primarily due to a slowdown in trade cycles and potential increases in purchases from the US [7][34] Economic Structure and Growth Model - Asia's persistent current account surplus reflects a manufacturing-driven growth model, with high savings relative to investment [8][24] - The report notes that Asia has maintained a current account surplus for 35 consecutive years, with a historical high of USD 1.1 trillion in Q1 2025, representing 4.1% of GDP [12][13] Investment Position - Asia's international investment position has grown to USD 45 trillion, surpassing both the US and Eurozone [49][50] - The report indicates that since 2018, Asia's holdings in US securities have increased by USD 2.8 trillion, now totaling USD 8.6 trillion, with the share of US assets in Asia's portfolio rising from 37% to 41% [65][72] Future Projections - The report forecasts a slight narrowing of the current account surplus to USD 0.9 trillion (3.1% of GDP) in 2025, down from USD 1.0 trillion (3.6% of GDP) in 2024 [34][36] - It emphasizes that the expected narrowing of the current account surplus should not be viewed as a sustainable rebalancing, as structural changes in savings and consumption patterns are not anticipated [35][66]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the global credit market Core Insights - US Investment Grade (IG) spreads tightened by 3 basis points (bp) last week, resulting in an excess return of 32 bp, with inflows of $1.9 billion for the week and a year-to-date (YTD) total of $12.6 billion [2] - US High Yield (HY) spreads tightened by 16 bp, leading to an excess return of 39 bp, with inflows of $0.2 billion for the week and a YTD total of $2.7 billion [3] - US Leveraged Loans saw spreads tighten by 2 bp, yielding a total return of 22 bp, with inflows of $0.3 billion for the week and a YTD total of $2.5 billion [4] - EU Investment Grade spreads tightened by 4 bp, resulting in an excess return of 23 bp, with net inflows of €2.1 billion for the week and €19.1 billion YTD [5] - EU High Yield spreads tightened by 17 bp, translating into an excess return of 50 bp, with net inflows of €606 million for the week and €0.6 billion YTD [6] - Asia Credit spreads tightened by 2 bp, with IG spreads tightening by 3 bp and HY spreads widening by 6 bp [7] Summary by Sections Global Credit Snapshot - US IG current spread is 88 bp, with a 1-year change of 32% and a 12-month change of 2 bp [12] - EU IG current spread is 100 bp, with a 1-year change of 34% and a 12-month change of -8 bp [12] - Asia IG current spread is 78 bp, with a 1-year change of 27% and a 12-month change of 0 bp [12] Performance Across Asset Classes - US IG funds saw inflows of $1.9 billion, with YTD issuance reaching $866 billion, a 7.4% increase year-over-year [2] - US HY funds experienced inflows of $0.2 billion, with YTD supply tracking at $106 billion, a 26% decrease year-over-year [3] - EU IG funds had net inflows of €2.1 billion, with YTD volumes at €356 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year [5] - EU HY funds saw net inflows of €606 million, with YTD supply at €56 billion, a 13% decrease year-over-year [6] Credit Demand and Supply - Weekly supply for US IG reached $24 billion, raising YTD issuance to $866 billion [2] - Weekly supply for US HY was $5 billion, with YTD supply at $106 billion [3] - Weekly supply for EU IG was €12 billion, lifting YTD volumes to €356 billion [5] - Weekly supply for EU HY was €1 billion, with YTD supply tracking at €56 billion [6] Sector Performance - In US IG, media, telecoms, and retail sectors delivered the best performance, while basic industry, automotive, and services lagged [2] - In US HY, transportation, technology, and real estate sectors delivered the highest excess returns, while banking, telecoms, and insurance lagged [3] - In EU IG, leisure, automotive, and insurance sectors outperformed, while services, utility, and transportation lagged [5] - In EU HY, single B rated bonds outperformed [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry or specific assets [4]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 experienced its best May performance since 1990, indicating strong market sentiment [9]. - US goods imports saw a significant drop of 20% in a month, marking the largest decline ever recorded [9]. - Bloomberg's Fedspeak index has reached its most dovish level in over four years, suggesting a shift in monetary policy outlook [9]. Summary by Sections Equities - S&P 500 forecasted returns range from -15.8% (bear case) to 23.1% (bull case) with a base case return of 19% [4]. - MSCI Europe shows a bear case of -22.8% and a bull case of 23.6%, with a base case return of 16% [4]. - Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) forecasted returns range from -22.1% to 20.2%, with a base case return of 16% [4]. Foreign Exchange - The JPY is forecasted to depreciate to 144 in the bear case and appreciate to 130 in the bull case, with a base case of 143 [4]. - The EUR is expected to range from 1.13 (bear) to 1.25 (bull), with a base case of 1.14 [4]. Rates - The 10-year UST yield is forecasted to range from 4.40% (bear) to 3.45% (bull), with a base case of 4.00% [4]. - UK 10-year yields are expected to range from 4.65% (bear) to 3.95% (bull), with a base case of 4.35% [4]. Credit - US Investment Grade (IG) credit spreads are forecasted to tighten from 88 bps (bear) to 90 bps (bull), with a base case of 130 bps [4]. - US High Yield (HY) spreads are expected to range from 315 bps (bear) to 335 bps (bull), with a base case of 475 bps [4]. Commodities - Brent crude oil is forecasted to range from $64 (bear) to $55 (bull), with a base case of $45 [4]. - Gold prices are expected to range from $3,278 (bear) to $3,250 (bull), with a base case of $2,760 [4]. Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) - The MSI aggregates survey positioning, volatility, and momentum data to quantify market stress and sentiment, indicating a current negative sentiment [50][55]. Cross-Asset Positioning - In US equities, asset managers are net long at 27%, while hedge funds are net short at -7% [63]. - In commodities, positioning shows 25% net long in gold, while 7% net long in Brent [63]. Cross-Asset Correlations - The current global correlation index stands at 43%, indicating a slight increase from the previous month [72]. - Equity correlations are at 70%, while credit correlations are at 80%, reflecting strong interdependencies [72]. ETF Flows - US equities saw a net inflow of $0.7 billion over the past week, while world equities had a net inflow of $0.8 billion [37]. - Bond markets experienced a significant inflow of $15.1 billion, indicating strong demand for fixed income [37]. Volatility Monitor - The implied volatility for the S&P 500 is currently at 17.0%, reflecting market expectations of future volatility [96]. - Major equity markets show varying levels of volatility, with the Nasdaq at 21.2% [96]. Overall Market Performance - Major developed market equity indices posted gains, with TOPIX up 2.4% and NASDAQ up 2% [98]. - Commodity markets generally posted losses, with copper down 3.3% [98].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific assets discussed Core Insights - The report discusses several key debates regarding US assets and their safe-haven status, fiscal expansion, Chinese risk assets, and future Fed rate cuts, indicating a cautious outlook on certain areas while maintaining a positive view on US assets overall [8][22][27] Summary by Sections Fiscal Expansion and Term Premium - Expected fiscal expansion of approximately US$300 billion next year is anticipated to have a marginal impact on the term premium, with most deficits funded by T-bills [9][10] - Only about US$90 billion is expected from new policy changes in the upcoming US fiscal bill [9] Chinese Risk Assets - The report suggests that it is not the right time to become strategically constructive on Chinese risk assets due to ongoing domestic deflation and tariff uncertainties [14][16] Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The expectation of 175 basis points of Fed cuts by 2026 is based on the current restrictive rates and a projected unemployment rate increase to 4.8% by the end of 2026, despite not forecasting a recession [17][20] US Assets as Safe Haven - The report argues that fears regarding US assets losing their safe-haven allure are overstated, as the US stock market capitalization is significantly larger than other markets, and a substantial portion of high-grade fixed income is denominated in USD [22][24][26] Tariff Outlook - The report maintains a base case for tariffs, projecting a 10% baseline for most geographies and 30-40% on China, with various legal authorities available to the US administration to maintain or re-establish current tariff levels [27][28]

去年年底以来，⬀策层及官媒开始营造反内ⷑ的社会氛围。而⯆造业信贷的放 缓、部⮇过Ⱁ行业投资回落以及工业企业⮵润的温和修复似乎显示了再平衡已⮤ 见成效。然而，一家头部新能源车企于周一大幅降价促销，引发了市场ⲁ荡，同 时也重新引发了市场对于中国经济和再通胀⯥景的辩论。 对工业企业⮵润的进一步研究表明，根深蒂固的供需错配仍在⯆约中国的再通 胀。考虑⮽通过债ⱷ推ⲁ的强⯌激政策或已成为过去式，我们认为中国目⯥的再 平衡和再通胀需要伴随一些结构性的改革，ⴎ括社会福⮵的改善、债ⱷ重组、税 ⯆改革以及营造有⮵于增长的监管环境。上述改革皆有难度，因此我们认为实施 的步伐将是循序渐进的，再通胀短期内仍具挑战，而中长期内也无坦途。 #1. 工业企业利润修复主要由于销量以及降本增效，然而定价能力仍然羸弱。 我们可以将工业企业利润增速拆分为三项：售价（使用PPI来观察）、⮵润率（统 计局数据）以及销量（ Exhibit 1 ）。拆⮇后我们可以总结三点： 1.利润率受基数影响，夸大了整体利润增速的改善：去年三季度之后，工业企业⮵ 润同比增速现了明显的反弹，从去年9月份-27%的低谷一路上ⶍ⮽今年4月份 的3.3%。然而，去年三季度⮵润增 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The U.S. nuclear power plan under the Trump administration aims to significantly increase nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050, which is four times the current operational capacity of 100 GW [2][3] - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on uranium prices, citing long-term demand support from the nuclear revival theme in the U.S. [1][2] - The ambitious nuclear capacity goal will require the construction of 20 new reactors annually, a significant challenge given the historical context of U.S. nuclear development [3][7] Group 2: Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain is heavily reliant on imports, with two-thirds of enrichment and conversion needs depending on foreign sources [8] - By 2030, U.S. mines are projected to meet about 40% of domestic uranium demand, with Canada expected to fill much of the gap [8] - The construction of small modular reactors (SMRs) may be expedited by recent executive orders, with potential deployment by the end of 2030 [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street investment banks are strengthening their view that the US dollar will weaken further due to interest rate cuts, economic slowdown, and President Trump's trade and tax policies [1][2][3] Group 1: Predictions on Dollar Value - Morgan Stanley predicts that the dollar index will decline by approximately 9% to 91 by this time next year [2] - Morgan Stanley's global macro strategy head states that the dollar is expected to drop to levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic by mid-next year [1] - Pioneer Investments anticipates a 10% depreciation of the Bloomberg Dollar Index within the next 12 months [3] Group 2: Currency Comparisons - Morgan Stanley suggests that the euro, yen, and Swiss franc will be the biggest beneficiaries of the dollar's decline [2] - The euro reached a five-week high against the dollar, peaking at 1.1450, with expectations to rise to around 1.25 next year [2] - The British pound is projected to strengthen from approximately 1.35 to 1.45 against the dollar due to "high carry" returns and lower trade risk [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has seen a decline as US factory activity shrank for the third consecutive month [1] - Investors are reassessing their risk exposure to US assets, leading to increased hedging ratios, which may contribute to downward pressure on the dollar over the next 12 months [1] - Upcoming US labor market indicators, including the May non-farm payroll report, will be closely monitored to gauge potential changes in Federal Reserve policy and its impact on the dollar [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the tax provision 899 in the "Big Beautiful Act," warning that it could lead to the largest capital tax shock in history for Wall Street, particularly affecting foreign investors in U.S. assets [1][3][12]. Group 1: Tax Provision 899 - Provision 899 introduces a punitive tax structure for investors from countries deemed to have "discriminatory" tax policies, starting with a 5% increase in tax rates, escalating by 5% annually, up to a maximum of 20% [3][4]. - The provision's scope is broad, potentially affecting various forms of income, including passive income, real estate investments, and business profits, which could impact previously exempt entities like foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds [3][4]. Group 2: Market Implications - If the provision applies to U.S. Treasury bonds, it could lead to a steepening of the yield curve, a weakening of the dollar, and an expansion of credit spreads, as foreign investors may react quickly to tax changes [2][8][12]. - The report indicates that foreign investors hold a significant portion of U.S. debt, with total liabilities to foreign entities reaching $39.8 trillion, of which 83% are securities [4][6]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Effects - The tax changes could disproportionately affect corporate bonds, where foreign investors hold about 25% of the market, potentially leading to liquidity pressures and increased volatility [12][13]. - Commercial real estate (CRE) could see greater valuation impacts due to the higher foreign buyer percentage compared to residential real estate [15]. Group 4: Hedge Fund Risks - Hedge funds may face significant challenges as the tax rate increase could eliminate arbitrage opportunities, fundamentally disrupting the business models of those relying on cross-border arbitrage in U.S. markets [17]. Group 5: Legislative Outlook - The Senate is viewed as a critical player in clarifying the applicability of provision 899, with potential adjustments to the scope and implementation timeline [20][21]. - There is uncertainty regarding the worst-case scenario of the provision's implementation, with estimates of revenue generation potentially being significantly underestimated if all foreign-held assets are taxed [18][19].

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 42,305.48, up by 35.41 points or 0.08% [2] - The Nasdaq is at 19,242.61, increasing by 128.84 points or 0.67% [2] - The S&P 500 stands at 5,935.94, rising by 24.25 points or 0.41% [2] - The Hang Seng Index is at 23,157.97, down by 131.80 points or 0.57% [2] - The Nikkei 225 is at 37,470.67, decreasing by 494.43 points or 1.30% [2] Trade Negotiations - The Trump administration is urging countries involved in tariff negotiations to submit their "best offers" by Wednesday, indicating a push to accelerate trade talks before a July deadline [3] - The U.S. government is seeking proposals in key areas such as tariffs and quotas on industrial and agricultural products [3] Economic Policy Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need for understanding the impact of potential dollar volatility on U.S. households and businesses [3] - Powell did not comment on monetary policy or economic outlook during his speech [3] Tariff Increases - The U.S. has raised steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, which the EU expressed regret over, stating it adds to economic uncertainty [3] - Negotiations between the U.S. and the EU are ongoing, with meetings scheduled for the week [3] Corporate Developments - Neuralink, Elon Musk's brain-computer interface startup, has completed a $650 million Series E funding round with participation from notable investors [6] - Microsoft has laid off over 300 employees in addition to a previously announced 6,000 layoffs, indicating ongoing organizational restructuring [7] Financial Performance - The 2025 Fortune 500 list shows total revenue for the 500 companies increased from $18.8 trillion to $19.91 trillion, a growth of approximately 6% [8] - Walmart remains the top company by revenue for the thirteenth consecutive year, followed by Amazon and UnitedHealth Group [8]

智通财经APP获悉，周一，随着全球贸易紧张局势加剧，美元兑十国集团(G10)所有货币均出现下跌。 Bloomberg美元指数下跌0.6%，接近2023年以来最低的盘中水平。与此同时，华尔街多家银行对美元将 进一步走软的预期正在升温，理由包括美联储即将降息、经济增长放缓、以及美国总统特朗普的贸易与 税收政策带来的影响。 摩根士丹利表示，到明年年中，美元将跌至大流行期间的水平。摩根大通也持续看空美元。高盛则指 出，如果加征关税的政策受阻，白宫方面试图探索其他收入来源的举措可能对美元造成更加严重的打 击。富国银行策略师Aroop Chatterjee直言："我们认为，围绕美元走软的中期叙事正在形成。" 美元空头仓位接近2023年以来最高 摩根士丹利全球宏观策略主管Matthew Hornbach周一表示："美国以外的投资者正在重新审视他们在美 国的资产配置，同时也在重新评估与这些资产相关的美元敞口。他们提高了对冲比率，这是未来12个月 内将给美元带来下行压力的因素之一。"该行预测，美元指数(DXY)将在明年6月左右下跌约9%，跌至 91点。 以Meera Chandan为首的摩根大通策略师重申了对美元的负面看法，并 ...