Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 42,305.48, up by 35.41 points or 0.08% [2] - The Nasdaq is at 19,242.61, increasing by 128.84 points or 0.67% [2] - The S&P 500 stands at 5,935.94, rising by 24.25 points or 0.41% [2] - The Hang Seng Index is at 23,157.97, down by 131.80 points or 0.57% [2] - The Nikkei 225 is at 37,470.67, decreasing by 494.43 points or 1.30% [2] Trade Negotiations - The Trump administration is urging countries involved in tariff negotiations to submit their "best offers" by Wednesday, indicating a push to accelerate trade talks before a July deadline [3] - The U.S. government is seeking proposals in key areas such as tariffs and quotas on industrial and agricultural products [3] Economic Policy Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need for understanding the impact of potential dollar volatility on U.S. households and businesses [3] - Powell did not comment on monetary policy or economic outlook during his speech [3] Tariff Increases - The U.S. has raised steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, which the EU expressed regret over, stating it adds to economic uncertainty [3] - Negotiations between the U.S. and the EU are ongoing, with meetings scheduled for the week [3] Corporate Developments - Neuralink, Elon Musk's brain-computer interface startup, has completed a $650 million Series E funding round with participation from notable investors [6] - Microsoft has laid off over 300 employees in addition to a previously announced 6,000 layoffs, indicating ongoing organizational restructuring [7] Financial Performance - The 2025 Fortune 500 list shows total revenue for the 500 companies increased from $18.8 trillion to $19.91 trillion, a growth of approximately 6% [8] - Walmart remains the top company by revenue for the thirteenth consecutive year, followed by Amazon and UnitedHealth Group [8]

智通财经APP获悉，周一，随着全球贸易紧张局势加剧，美元兑十国集团(G10)所有货币均出现下跌。 Bloomberg美元指数下跌0.6%，接近2023年以来最低的盘中水平。与此同时，华尔街多家银行对美元将 进一步走软的预期正在升温，理由包括美联储即将降息、经济增长放缓、以及美国总统特朗普的贸易与 税收政策带来的影响。 摩根士丹利表示，到明年年中，美元将跌至大流行期间的水平。摩根大通也持续看空美元。高盛则指 出，如果加征关税的政策受阻，白宫方面试图探索其他收入来源的举措可能对美元造成更加严重的打 击。富国银行策略师Aroop Chatterjee直言："我们认为，围绕美元走软的中期叙事正在形成。" 美元空头仓位接近2023年以来最高 摩根士丹利全球宏观策略主管Matthew Hornbach周一表示："美国以外的投资者正在重新审视他们在美 国的资产配置，同时也在重新评估与这些资产相关的美元敞口。他们提高了对冲比率，这是未来12个月 内将给美元带来下行压力的因素之一。"该行预测，美元指数(DXY)将在明年6月左右下跌约9%，跌至 91点。 以Meera Chandan为首的摩根大通策略师重申了对美元的负面看法，并 ...

May 27, 2025 10:12 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary | Global May 27 Sharp super-long JGB rally amid speculation for lower long-end issuance; positive EU and US trade developments support US assets; USTs bull-flatten; miss in France CPI; LatAm currencies outperform; Fed's Barkin warns of effects of uncertainty; DXY at 99.58 (0.5%); US 10y at 4.444% (-6.7bp) Please refer to our recent publications and collaborations (Euro Area Rates Strategy: More Room to Go; Hong Kong Macro Strategy, Economics, Property & Bank ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The report focuses on the thematic and sustainability investment landscape in Asia, particularly in China and Japan, highlighting investor interests and regulatory changes impacting these markets [1][2][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investor Interest in Thematic and Sustainability Topics**: There is a strong interest among investors in China and Japan regarding thematic and sustainability investments, with discussions held with over 15 investors in Shanghai and Tokyo [1][7]. 2. **Impact of AMAC Guidance**: The new guidance from the Asset Management Association of China (AMAC) mandates shareholders with over 5% ownership to actively exercise their voting rights, which is seen as a long-term positive for corporate governance in China [7][8]. 3. **Governance Trends in Asia**: The governance theme is gaining traction in China, with lessons from Japan and Korea suggesting that increased global investor engagement could lead to higher valuations [7][9][17]. 4. **US-China Tensions and Sustainability**: Investors are keenly interested in the implications of US-China tensions, particularly regarding carbon markets and regulatory changes in Europe that may affect sustainability investments [7][8]. 5. **Sustainability and Thematic Investing Overlap**: The convergence of sustainability and thematic investing is significant, with a focus on diverse Asia-centric themes, including AI, energy transition, and health care [24][29]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Corporate Governance in China**: The AMAC's guidance outlines 13 matters where voting rights should be actively exercised, which includes issues related to shareholder rights, director elections, and environmental responsibilities [11][12][13]. 2. **Reform Momentum in Korea**: There is a noted reform momentum in Korea, with political commitment to governance reform, which is expected to be an inflection point for the market [23]. 3. **US Tariffs and Clean Tech**: The impact of US tariffs on sustainability and clean technology is under scrutiny, with potential implications for the pace of the US energy transition due to reliance on China for critical minerals [29][35]. 4. **EU Regulations and CBAM**: The incoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is set to start in 2026, which will drive interest in carbon capture technologies, particularly in the cement industry [39][42]. 5. **Defense Sector Exclusions**: There is a trend of easing defense sector exclusions among sustainability funds, indicating a shift in investment strategies in response to changing geopolitical dynamics [39][40]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current landscape in thematic and sustainability investments in Asia, particularly focusing on China and Japan.

华尔街巨头警告，美元指数未来一年将跌9%。 据报道，摩根士丹利策略师团队在最新报告中预测，美元将在明年年中跌至新冠疫情期间的低位水平。 该行预计，美元指数将在未来一年内下跌约9%，跌至91附近，主要驱动因素是美联储的降息周期和经济放缓。 以Matthew Hornbach为首的策略师团队在5月31日的研究报告中指出： "我们认为利率和货币市场已经开启了可持续的重大趋势——在经历了两年的宽幅区间震荡交易后，美元将大幅走低，收益率曲线将显 著变陡。" 大摩还在报告中表示，欧元、日元、瑞郎将成为美元走软的最大受益者。 周一，美元对一篮子货币走低，美元指数下跌超0.7%，最低触及98.68，似乎也印证了市场对美元前景的谨慎态度。与此同时，欧元升至一个月高 位，英镑来到1.3550，美元/日元跌至142.80附近。 值得注意的是，摩根士丹利的分析报告呼应了市场上质疑美元前景的声音。 摩根大通策略师团队在上周也向投资者表达了对美元的看空立场，转而建议投资者将资金配置到日元、欧元和澳元等货币上。 "央行降息+经济放缓"，美元将走软 根据大摩的预测，美联储将在未来实施175个基点的降息，这将对美元构成重大压力。 该行预计，1 ...

高盛的逻辑关键在于时间节点。该行预计OPEC+在7月6日决定8月产量水平时，"预期的需求放缓不太 可能急剧到足以阻止增产"。但从9月开始情况将发生变化。届时，OPEC+将保持供应配额稳定， OPEC+以外的产量将增加，全球经济增长将在第三季度放缓。 摩根士丹利预见"三重打击"：连续增产将压低油价 与高盛的谨慎乐观形成对比，摩根士丹利描绘了一幅更为悲观的图景。 OPEC+在周末意外宣布第四轮连续增产后，华尔街两大投行对后市增产展望产生了严重分歧。 摩根士丹利分析师团队认为，OPEC+将在未来三个月内继续推进每月41.1万桶/日的增产步伐，其认为 配额增长与实际产量增长之间存在显著"脱节"。高盛则押注"一次性收官"，认为OPEC+只会在8月份再 进行一轮增产，随后便会暂停。 上周六，OPEC+决定自7月起日均增产41.1万桶，规模持平前两次增产。这也是OPEC+连续第四个月宣 布增产，该组织从今年4月起每月宣布增产，以回撤2023年宣布的自愿减产措施。 高盛押注"一次性收官" 高盛分析师Daan Struyven等人在最新研报中指出了增产的三个支撑因素：相对紧张的现货石油基本面、 强劲的全球经济活动数据，以及夏季 ...

摩根士丹利表示，预计OPEC+在8月、9月、10月这三个月继续恢复石油产量，从而令油价进一步走 低。OPEC+周六宣布同意连续第三个月大幅增加石油产量，对此摩根士丹利表示，这意味着到10月， 此前削减的220万桶/日的产量将被全数解除。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to undergo a significant adjustment due to the dual pressures of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a slowdown in global economic growth, predicting a decline of approximately 9% by mid-2026, reaching a low of 91 points, the lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [1][4]. Group 1: Key Drivers - The first key driver is the shift in Federal Reserve policy, which is anticipated to push real interest rates down. Morgan Stanley forecasts that the 10-year US Treasury yield will drop to 4.0% by the end of 2025, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates by a cumulative 175 basis points, leading to a more significant decline in the benchmark rate range by 2026, thereby diminishing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [4]. - The second driver is the restructuring of global trade patterns, which is reshaping the currency landscape. Policies such as tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have not only impacted market confidence but have also prompted a reassessment of the dollar's status as a reserve currency. Current data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicates that bearish sentiment towards the dollar has not yet reached historical extremes, suggesting further potential weakness for the dollar [4]. Group 2: Currency Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about three non-USD currencies: the euro is expected to rise from the current exchange rate of 1.13 to 1.25, benefiting from the European Central Bank's cautious rate cuts and improved trade conditions due to falling energy prices; the Japanese yen, a traditional safe-haven asset, may appreciate from 143 yen to 130 yen, particularly as the uncertainty from Trump’s trade policies continues to support its value; and the British pound is projected to increase from 1.35 to 1.45, driven by a relatively mild trade environment in the UK and the interest rate advantage from the current 5.25% policy rate [4]. - Additionally, JPMorgan's strategist team has also issued a bearish signal for the dollar, advising investors to short the dollar and favor currencies such as the yen, euro, and Australian dollar. During the Asian trading session, the dollar index continued its downward trend, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falling by 0.2%, indicating potential for further selling pressure if key support levels are breached [5].

端午节假期的第一天，A股市场迎来了一则重磅消息，摩根士丹利（大摩）突然发表声明，将中概念股的评级上调至"与大牛市同步"。这一举动迅速引发了 市场的广泛关注，并无疑将在节后对A股市场产生深远影响。 摩根士丹利的乐观言论对A股和港股无疑是一个积极的信号。该机构的国际声誉使得其每一次的市场预测都具有极高的参考价值。尤其在目前经济复苏的背 景下，摩根士丹利的唱多势必会引导其他外资机构的投资决策，进而推动更多资金流入中国市场。 摩根士丹利作为全球知名的投资机构，其动向通常对市场产生巨大影响。这次的声音不仅为中概念股带来了巨大的市场关注，还可能通过吸引更多外资的涌 入，进一步推高中概念股的表现，进而为整体A股市场带来积极的促进作用。 摩根士丹利的乐观态度：外资涌入中国市场 在刚刚进入端午节假期时，摩根士丹利发布了对中概念股的乐观评估，将其评级上调至"与大牛市同步"。这一变化引起了市场的广泛讨论，相关信息迅速在 各大平台传播开来。根据摩根士丹利的分析，A股和港股市场都有潜力迎来更多外资的流入，特别是港股市场的前景被看好。大摩为此列出了三个关键信 号： 1. 大摩意外唱多A股和港股。这不仅仅是对A股和港股的乐观预测，更具有深 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks from "underweight" to "in line with the market" and expressed optimism about Chinese tech stocks due to their strong innovation capabilities [2][3] - The firm prefers Hong Kong stocks over A-shares, citing that a weaker dollar, influenced by Trump’s policies, historically benefits Hong Kong stocks more than A-shares [2][3] - Goldman Sachs indicated that the potential resilience of the RMB supports an overweight stance on Chinese stocks, expecting a moderate improvement in corporate earnings and increased foreign capital inflow [3] Group 2 - Economist Hong Hao predicted a continued weakening of the dollar, suggesting that it will no longer be viewed as a safe-haven asset, leading to increased capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks [4][5] - Hong noted a significant rise in the base currency balance of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and a dramatic drop in the overnight Hibor rate from 4 to around 0, indicating strong liquidity in the market [5] - Cambridge Associates reported that global investors are reassessing their US-centric portfolios and are increasingly interested in undervalued stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China [5][6] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market is benefiting from favorable monetary conditions, increased southbound capital flows, and a rise in IPO activities, with 26 new listings raising a total of HKD 77.2 billion (approximately USD 9.9 billion) [6] - The Hang Seng Index has risen approximately 15.9% year-to-date, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of about 10.5 times expected earnings, compared to 22.5 times for the S&P 500 [6]