以下文章来源于明亮公司 ，作者主编24小时在线 明亮公司 . 追踪新商业、好公司，提供一手情报与领先认知。 作者：苏打 出品：明亮公司 ！ 近日，有消息称拼多多已组建电商推荐大模型团队，负责人为原百度凤巢的核心成员。尽管拼多多并未正面回应，但这一消息一度引发广 泛关注。 作为几乎唯一一个"缺席"AI大模型布局的万亿规模体量"大厂"，市场对拼多多AI战略规划的关注或许并非大模型乃至AI本身，而是起家于C 端的巨头公司们，对未来不同发展路径的判断模型。 我们的一个观察是，阿里实际上与美国几家大厂的模式更为接近——未来承诺更大规模的资本支出；而拼多多作为其中看似"异类"的代表， 仍专注于C端用户体验、供应链效率和出海。 值得一提的是，它们均拥有大量C端用户， 但有些选择最终将自己凝聚成具备"核心技术"的to B服务商 ，而有些选择持续深耕消费端，并于 其中攫取最强心智和竞争力。 而近期的资本市场表现，也一定程度上反映出其对两种不同方向的预期。截至发稿，阿里巴巴TTM市盈率约19.9倍；拼多多约11.6倍——市 场暂时写好了答案。 拼多多的克制：是「应用」还是做模型 大模型浪潮兴起后，阿里、百度、字节等是最先摆明态度 ...

Core Viewpoint - E-commerce platforms such as Taobao, JD.com, and Pinduoduo continue to sell betel nut as food, which violates regulations set by the National Market Supervision Administration [21][27]. Group 1: Current Status of Betel Nut Sales - As of now, platforms like Taobao still categorize betel nut under "food" sections, such as "snacks" and "confectionery," without any changes from previous months [4][6][8]. - JD.com also lists betel nut under "food and beverages" as "dried fruits," indicating a similar trend in misclassification [9][12]. - Pinduoduo has shown some awareness by removing betel nut from its homepage recommendations but still categorizes it under "local agricultural products" and "dried fruits" [15][16][19]. Group 2: Regulatory Violations - The classification of betel nut as food contradicts the National Market Supervision Administration's regulations, which state that betel nut is not recognized as food and should not be sold as such [21][23]. - The International Agency for Research on Cancer has classified betel nut as a Group 1 carcinogen, linking it to increased risks of oral cancer [25][26]. Group 3: Recommendations for E-commerce Platforms - Legal experts suggest that e-commerce platforms should remove betel nut from food categories and provide clear warnings that it is not a food product [27][28]. - Platforms are encouraged to enhance consumer education regarding the health risks associated with betel nut and to avoid misleading advertising [27].

Core Viewpoint - PDD Holdings Inc. will announce its unaudited financial results for Q4 and the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, on March 20, 2025, before U.S. markets open [1] Group 1 - The earnings conference call is scheduled for 7:30 AM ET on March 20, 2025 [1] - The conference call will be webcast live and available for replay on the company's investor website [2] Group 2 - PDD Holdings is a multinational commerce group focused on integrating businesses and individuals into the digital economy to enhance productivity and create new opportunities for local communities and small businesses [3]

Core Insights - KraneShares has launched a Single-Stock Levered ETF Suite, including the KraneShares 2X Long PDD Daily ETF (KPDD) and the KraneShares 2X Long BABA Daily ETF (KBAB) [1][5] - These ETFs aim to achieve daily investment results of 200% of the daily percentage change of PDD Holdings and Alibaba's US listings or ADRs [2][6] - PDD Holdings is the fourth-largest e-commerce retailer globally, with over 19 countries of operation and $50 billion in annual gross merchandise value in 2024, while Alibaba is the third-largest, with a diversified business model [3][4] Company Overview - PDD Holdings has reshaped global retail through its platform Temu, which surpassed Amazon in monthly active users [3][9] - Alibaba has seen positive stock momentum due to its Qwen2.5 series large language model and a partnership with Apple for AI integration in new iPhones [3][4] - Both companies have higher average historical annual revenue growth rates compared to US counterparts like Amazon [4][10] Investment Strategy - The Single-Stock Levered ETF Suite provides a way for bullish investors to gain leveraged exposure to leading companies in the China internet sector [5] - PDD and Alibaba are significant holdings in the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF, with weights of 6.51% and 12.45% respectively as of March 11, 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a moderate inflow of foreign funds into Chinese equities, with a total inflow of US$3.8 billion in February 2025, following three months of outflows [7]. Core Insights - The inflow was primarily driven by passive funds, which contributed US$5.0 billion, while active funds experienced an outflow of US$1.2 billion, although this was a slowdown from the US$1.7 billion outflow in January [7]. - The recent rally from January 13 to February 28 saw a more moderate passive fund inflow compared to the previous year's rally, with US$5 billion versus US$15 billion, indicating a shift in focus towards AI and tech-related sectors [7]. - Cumulative foreign passive inflows since October 2022 have returned to early October 2024 levels, while cumulative foreign active flows have reached a historical low since late 2022 [7]. - Underweights in China have remained stable across global funds, AxJ funds, and EM funds, with underweights of 1.1 percentage points, 1.6 percentage points, and 3.1 percentage points respectively [7]. Fund Flow Summary - Active fund managers have increased their positions in Consumer Services and Media & Entertainment sectors, while reducing their holdings in Consumer Durables & Apparel and Food Beverage & Tobacco [7]. - Notable additions to active fund positions include Meituan, CCB, Trip.com, and PICC P&C, while Kweichow Moutai and Midea Group saw the most reductions [7]. - Chinese domestic passive funds targeting A-shares experienced a significant net outflow of US$17 billion in February 2025, marking a shift after eight months of inflow [7]. - The Southbound Stock Connect program maintained strong momentum with a net inflow of US$19.6 billion in February 2025, contributing to a total of US$35 billion in the first two months of 2025 [7].

Company Performance - PDD Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR (PDD) closed at $113.41, reflecting a +0.72% change, outperforming the S&P 500's 1.22% loss [1] - Over the last month, PDD shares increased by 6.99%, while the Retail-Wholesale sector and S&P 500 experienced losses of 4.52% and 2.31% respectively [1] Earnings Projections - PDD is projected to report earnings of $2.56 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 6.67% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $15.68 billion, representing a 25.24% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Analyst Estimates - Changes in analyst estimates for PDD are crucial as they reflect short-term business trends and analysts' confidence in the company's performance [3] - Positive revisions in estimates are associated with potential stock price performance [4] Valuation Metrics - PDD has a Forward P/E ratio of 9.22, which is a discount compared to the industry average of 22.21 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.27, significantly lower than the industry average PEG ratio of 1.29 [6] Industry Context - The Internet - Commerce industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 35, placing it in the top 14% of over 250 industries [7] - The top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Temu, a Chinese e-commerce platform, is expanding its local shipping services to reduce reliance on cross-border delivery, aiming to adapt to increasing tariffs and protectionist measures globally [1][5][6] Group 1: Expansion and Market Position - Temu has entered approximately 90 countries since its launch in the U.S. in September 2022, with a significant increase in monthly users, surpassing Amazon in December 2024 [1][3] - The "Local-to-Local" service, initiated in March 2024, allows local sellers to offer products from domestic warehouses, covering 16 countries including the U.S., U.K., France, Italy, and Mexico [2][3] - Local products account for over 20% of Temu's gross merchandise volume (GMV) in the U.S., indicating a shift from primarily low-cost Chinese goods to a broader product range [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - In 2024, Temu's GMV in the U.S. reached $23.2 billion, which is only about 5% of Amazon's GMV, highlighting the challenges in achieving profitability [3] - Pinduoduo, Temu's parent company, reported a 61% year-on-year increase in net profit to 24.9 billion yuan in Q3 2024, but Temu is still considered to be operating at a loss [3][4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Regulatory Environment - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with Amazon launching a section for products priced under $20 to counter Temu's low-cost strategy [5] - Regulatory challenges are emerging, including potential tariffs on low-value imports from China and proposed taxes on imports below €150 in the EU, which could impact Temu's pricing strategy [5][6]

Group 1: Stock Performance - PDD Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR closed at $119.77, reflecting a +0.5% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.01% [1] - Over the past month, PDD shares have appreciated by 6.23%, significantly outperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 0.76% and the S&P 500's loss of 2.26% [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - The upcoming earnings report for PDD is expected to show an EPS of $2.56, representing a 6.67% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to reach $15.68 billion, indicating a 25.24% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] Group 3: Analyst Projections - Recent shifts in analyst projections for PDD are important as they often indicate changes in near-term business trends, with positive revisions reflecting optimism about the company's profitability [3] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - PDD's current Forward P/E ratio is 9.76, which is a discount compared to its industry's Forward P/E of 23.53 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.29, significantly lower than the Internet - Commerce industry's average PEG ratio of 1.18 [7] Group 5: Industry Ranking - The Internet - Commerce industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 45, placing it in the top 18% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Rank system indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Viewpoint - PDD Holdings' stock experienced a significant rally following Alibaba's earnings report, which exceeded analyst expectations on both revenue and profit metrics [1] Company Summary - PDD Holdings is positioned favorably in the market as its stock performance is positively influenced by competitor Alibaba's strong earnings results [1] Industry Summary - The competitive landscape in the e-commerce sector is highlighted by Alibaba's recent earnings, which may set a benchmark for other companies like PDD Holdings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The average brokerage recommendation (ABR) for PDD Holdings Inc. is 1.53, indicating a consensus leaning towards a "Strong Buy" [2] Brokerage Recommendations - The ABR is based on recommendations from 16 brokerage firms, with 11 ratings as "Strong Buy" and 1 as "Buy," accounting for 68.8% and 6.3% of total recommendations respectively [2] - Despite the positive ABR, reliance solely on brokerage recommendations for investment decisions may not be wise, as studies show limited success in guiding investors [4][5] Zacks Rank Comparison - Zacks Rank categorizes stocks from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell) and is based on earnings estimate revisions, which are correlated with near-term stock price movements [7][10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PDD remains unchanged at $11.39, suggesting stable earnings prospects [12] - PDD currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a cautious approach despite the favorable ABR [13]