Core Viewpoint - Tesla is shifting its focus from electric vehicles to robotics, planning to invest $20 billion this year to support this transformation, indicating a significant pivot in its business strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Investment Plans - Tesla's capital expenditure decreased by 24% to $8.6 billion last year, but it is projected to more than double to over $20 billion by 2026 as the company transitions towards artificial intelligence and robotics [1][3]. - The automotive revenue, which constitutes about 70% of Tesla's business, is expected to decline by 10% in 2025 due to the lack of new electric vehicle models and increased competition, particularly from BYD in China and Volkswagen and BMW in Europe [2]. Group 2: Product Development and Future Vision - Tesla plans to end production of the Model S and Model X, which accounted for less than 3% of total deliveries last year, to repurpose the Fremont factory for producing the Optimus robot [2][4]. - Elon Musk envisions that Optimus could eventually make Tesla a $25 trillion company, with 80% of its value derived from robotics [2]. Group 3: Technological Challenges and Competition - The company faces significant competition in both robotics and autonomous driving, with rivals like Waymo and Baidu expanding their services [5]. - Tesla is also planning to establish a large-scale chip manufacturing facility, TeraFab, to ensure it can meet its hardware needs and mitigate geopolitical risks [6]. Group 4: Expansion of Services - Tesla aims to expand its Robotaxi fleet in the U.S. and is testing a fully autonomous ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas, with plans to extend this service to seven additional markets [4].

Group 1: Technology Sector Developments - Alibaba's "Tongyun Ge" concept integrates "Cloud + AI + Chips" as a strategic support triangle for future technology initiatives, emphasizing AI as a core driver of change in cloud computing over the next decade [2] - ByteDance's CEO Liang Rubo announced the company's 2026 focus on "climbing to new heights," highlighting the importance of AI opportunities and the need to enhance talent density and incentives [5] - Waymo plans to launch fully autonomous ride-hailing services in London by Q4 2023, expanding its operations internationally despite regulatory challenges [7] Group 2: Market and Company News - Guizhou Moutai denied rumors of participating in SpaceX's Series A funding, with its stock closing at 1437.72 yuan per share, up 8.61%, and a market capitalization exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan [3] - Byte's new "Doubao" smartphone is expected to be released in late Q2 2026, with significant improvements over its predecessor, developed in collaboration with ZTE Nubia [4] - Meituan's new "one-shot" verification feature requires new restaurant partners to upload unedited videos showcasing their premises, aimed at enhancing platform integrity [8] Group 3: Industry Collaborations - Black Sesame Intelligence and Baidu's "萝卜快跑" signed a strategic cooperation agreement to develop a collaborative ecosystem for autonomous driving, focusing on technology research and product development [11] - Shanghai Xixi Intelligent Technology completed several million yuan in angel financing, aimed at integrating AI with flexible robotics for food processing solutions [12] Group 4: Consumer Electronics - Apple's iPhone 16 was the best-selling smartphone globally in 2025, with Apple and Samsung dominating the top ten list, holding seven and three positions respectively, indicating strong market leadership [10]

证券研究报告 2026.01.29 特斯拉 业绩超出市场预期；首度披露 FSD 订阅数据 汽车及出行设备 SAC 执证编号：S0080521010008 SFC CE Ref：BJV008 xue.deng@cicc.com.cn 维持跑赢行业 | 股票代码 | 股票评级 | 目标价 | | --- | --- | --- | | TSLA.US | → 跑赢行业 | 美元 500.00 | | 股票代码 | TSLA.US | | --- | --- | | 最新收盘价 | 美元 431.46 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 美元 498.83~214.25 | | 总市值(亿) | 美元 14,349.6 | 纵轴：相对股价（%） 49 66 83 100 117 134 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 2026-01 TSLA.US DJIA | (美元 百万) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 97,690 | 94,827 | 111,393 | 1 ...

29 January 2026 | 1:03AM EST Equity Research Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Stronger 4Q margins; Autonomy and AI in focus, especially given large increase in capex; 4Q25 wrap TSLA 12m Price Target: $405.00 Price: $431.46 Downside: 6.1% 4Q results were better than we had expected driven by higher margins. Tesla reported revenue/non-GAAP diluted EPS (excluding SBC and non-cash gains/losses from digital assets) of $24.9 bn/$0.50, which was 1% above/$0.05 above the Street (FactSet), and 1% below/$0.05 above GS. The automoti ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the AI/data center sector, electric vehicles (EVs), and autonomous vehicles (AVs), highlighting the rising power demand and innovations in these areas [1][2] Core Insights - **Reliability Imperative**: There is a strong emphasis on increasing investments in power, water, and broader infrastructure to meet rising demand and mitigate risks associated with aging infrastructure [1] - **AI Capital Expenditure**: The growth in AI capital expenditure (capex) is a significant topic, with expectations of continued strong demand for AI compute and data center power [5][6] - **Power Demand Growth**: Global power demand from data centers is projected to grow by 175% by 2030 compared to 2023 levels, which is equivalent to adding another top 10 power-consuming country [35] - **Investment Themes for 2026**: Key investment themes identified include Reliability (Power/Water Infrastructure, Critical Materials, Skilled Labor Scalers), Livelihood (Labor Reskillers, Affordability Solutions), and Quality (companies with favorable returns and operational sustainability) [10][9] Financial and Market Dynamics - **Investor Sentiment**: Investors are focused on the longevity of the AI capex cycle and scrutinizing financial flexibility and spending in the data center power supply chain [6][7] - **Supply Chain Concerns**: There is rising interest in redundancy of supply for critical parts and materials, particularly in rare-earth extraction and refining in the US [7] - **Labor Market Disruptions**: Ongoing AI deployment is expected to disrupt the labor market, with implications for productivity and workforce restructuring [8] Power and Energy Insights - **Power Sourcing Strategies**: An all-of-the-above approach to power sourcing is being adopted, with a focus on renewables, battery storage, and natural gas solutions [27] - **Nuclear Power Support**: There is continued support for nuclear power development, with significant announcements related to AI-related nuclear capacity [34] - **Chiller Deployment**: Despite advancements in energy efficiency, data centers are expected to continue deploying chillers to manage overheating risks [28] Future Projections - **Investment Tailwinds**: The report anticipates substantial investment tailwinds driven by the Reliability and Livelihood imperatives, with over $1 trillion of corporate spare capacity available for additional annual investment [9][15] - **Labor Demand**: An estimated 300,000 additional jobs will be needed in the US across manufacturing, construction, and operations to meet power demand by 2030 [45] Additional Considerations - **Regulatory and Policy Environment**: There are ongoing concerns regarding permitting and policy alignment among corporates, governments, and customers, which will be crucial for achieving greater grid flexibility and efficiency [31] - **Emerging Battery Technologies**: New battery technologies, including semi-solid and solid-state batteries, are on the verge of large-scale deployment, which could enhance the reliability and cost-effectiveness of energy storage solutions [55] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the AI/data center and EV/AV industries.

兄弟们，特别是在加拿大的兄弟们，恭喜了！往后，你们买中国电车能便宜一大波，搞不好直接打5折都有可能。 这到底是啥情况？ 因为加拿大给中国造的电车亮绿灯了，直接砍掉了100%的关税。在之前的2024年，加拿大跟着美国搞事情，给中国电车加了100%的关税，综合税率干到 106.1%。 这有多夸张呢，相当于1台在中国卖15万的电车，拉到加拿大去高低得卖30万起。对比其他正常税率的车，咱中国造的电车铁定没啥竞争力。 现在好了，降到就剩下6.1%的最惠国关税，彻底减负了。 看到这，估计不少兄弟会说，这不得一夜之间让中国电车跑遍加拿大街头？ 别急着高兴，这事没那么简单。 这关税优惠目前就管未来5年，而且只有配额内的车，才能享6.1%的优惠税。这个配额也不多，2026年先给4.9万辆额度，之后逐年涨到7万辆就保持不变 了。 更关键的是，配额当年用不完就作废，不能留到明年。如果超额呢，那对不起了，超过的部分继续承受106.1%的超高关税。 所以这4.9万辆的名额很宝贵，肯定不是谁先到港口排队就给谁，门槛不少。 比如车企得在加拿大当地有建好的售后网点，得向中国商务部争取出口的配额，最后在加拿大海关那验明正身，这一关一关都过了， ...

特斯拉 20260129 摘要 特斯拉 CyberCab 测试稳步推进，已在奥斯汀、旧金山等六地进行测试， 预计车辆制造成本低于 3 万美元，每英里运营成本降至 0.2 美元，计划 2026 年 4 月开始大规模量产。 特斯拉 Robotaxi 于 2026 年 1 月在奥斯汀正式面向公众运营，显著降 低人力成本，加速车队扩张。截至 1 月 28 日，奥斯汀和旧金山分别有 72 辆和 168 辆 Robotaxi 投入运营。 特斯拉持续升级 AI 芯片，从 HW 1.0 到 HW 4.0，算力提升至 500 TOPS。未来 AI5 芯片算力预计达 2000-2,500 TOPS，采用 3 纳米工 艺，并计划每 9 个月推出新一代 AI 芯片。 特斯拉积极拓展中东和欧洲市场，在荷兰等欧洲国家进行 FSD 测试，预 计荷兰 2026 年 2 月授予国家批准，意大利、德国和法国已开放 FSD 体 验项目，阿联酋成为中东市场重点。 特斯拉 FSD 订阅用户数量显著增长，截至 2025 年底达 110 万，每月 订阅人数 33 万，全球车队每日收集数据相当于 500 年以上连续驾驶数 据，为自动驾驶技术迭代提供支持。 ...

Tesla Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla - **Date of Call**: January 29, 2026 Key Financial Metrics - **Overall Gross Margin**: 20.1%, up 3.8% year-over-year and 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2][3] - **Automotive Gross Margin**: 20.4%, up over 3 percentage points year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter [2][3] - **Energy Business Gross Margin**: 28.6%, up 3 percentage points year-over-year, slight decline quarter-over-quarter [3][10] - **Reported Profit**: $840 million, down 60% year-over-year and 40% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to a $600 million loss from Bitcoin fair value changes [3] Production and Product Development - **Robot Production**: Plans to launch the third-generation Optimus robot (V3) in Q1 2026, with a target production of 1 million units by the end of the year [2][4] - **Factory Transition**: The California factory will cease production of Model S/X in H1 2026 to prepare for V3 robot production [4] - **AI Computing Facility**: Plans to double the scale of the AI computing facility in Texas, with A15 chip performance expected to be 50 times that of the A14 chip, projected for production in 2027-2028 [3][8] Full Self-Driving (FSD) Updates - **FSD Launch**: FSD launched in South Korea, achieving over 1 million kilometers driven in one month; expansion to Italy, Germany, and France is underway [5] - **China Market Entry**: Expected entry into China in February, likely at L2+ level [5] - **FSD Subscription Growth**: 1.1 million new subscribers in Q4, totaling 8.9 million, a 40% year-over-year increase [5] Robotaxi Project - **Deployment**: Robotaxi service launched in Austin, with plans to expand to seven U.S. cities, including the San Francisco Bay Area [6][7] - **Cybercab Production**: Expected to begin mass production in April, with anticipated sales exceeding all previous models combined [7] Capital Expenditure and Investment - **2026 Capital Expenditure**: Expected to exceed $20 billion, the highest in history, primarily for robot training computing needs [3][9] - **XAI Investment**: A $2 billion investment plan for XAI to enhance AI collaboration, expected to be completed in Q1 [8] Industry Insights - **Energy Business Challenges**: Facing pressure on profit margins due to increased low-cost competition, with gross margins declining from over 30% to 28.6% [10] - **Robot Industry Focus**: Emphasis on refining the robot supply chain, with a focus on production and profitability similar to the automotive industry [12][13] - **Technological Upgrades**: V3 version will feature significant technological advancements, including component sales and innovations akin to breakthroughs in the electric vehicle sector [14] Recommendations - **Investment Focus**: Recommended focus on leading Tier 1 suppliers such as Topband, Sanhua, Hengli, and Rongtai, while also monitoring new entrants in niche markets [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Musk plans to build 100GW of photovoltaic capacity, which may extend upstream to silicon materials and wafers, benefiting core equipment in silicon materials, wafers, batteries, and modules, with long-term market expansion potential for material companies [1][4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) of China has reiterated the "anti-involution" theme in the photovoltaic industry, indicating a high probability of self-imposed production limits, which will optimize the battery and module landscape [1][4] - The meeting held by MIIT on January 28, 2026, emphasized the need for market-based and legal measures to promote healthy competition and rational development in the photovoltaic industry, aiming to prevent monopolistic risks and ensure price rationalization across the industry chain [1][3] Group 2 - Musk's announcement of expanding photovoltaic capacity is not limited to batteries and modules but may also include upstream silicon materials and wafers, which could lead to increased orders for domestic photovoltaic equipment manufacturers [2][4] - China's space photovoltaic industry is accelerating its commercialization, with various technological routes such as gallium arsenide, crystalline silicon, and perovskite being explored, indicating a diverse development landscape [3] - The report recommends several companies, including Foster, JinkoSolar, and LONGi Green Energy, as potential beneficiaries of the expanding photovoltaic market, while also suggesting to pay attention to other companies like Aotaiwei and Shuangliang Energy [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Elon Musk indicated during Tesla's Q4 2025 earnings call that chip production capacity is likely to become a bottleneck for Tesla's mid-term growth over the next 3 to 4 years, as external supply from companies like TSMC, Samsung, and Micron is insufficient to meet demand [1] - Tesla is considering the construction of its own TerraFab super-sized wafer factory to integrate various semiconductor manufacturing processes, which would help the company mitigate external risks [1] Group 2 - Musk mentioned that AI4 (HW 4.0) has been utilized in Tesla's data centers for AI training workloads, and the gap between AI5 and AI6 chip generations will be less than one year [3]