Core Insights - In 2025, only two of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, Alphabet and Nvidia, outperformed the S&P 500, while the other five (Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Tesla) lagged behind [1][2] - The Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index rose by 25% in 2025, compared to a 16% increase for the S&P 500, primarily driven by the strong performance of Alphabet and Nvidia [2] - As of January 23, 2026, the CNBC Magnificent 7 Index is slightly down, contrasting with a 1% increase in the S&P 500, indicating potential ongoing challenges for the Magnificent 7 stocks [3] Performance Analysis - The majority of the Magnificent 7 stocks underperformed the S&P 500 for the first time since 2022, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [2] - Experts suggest that the sluggish performance may continue due to slowing profit growth and concerns regarding heavy investments in artificial intelligence [3] Investment Strategy - Investors are cautioned against viewing the Magnificent 7 as a single investment entity, as this approach may lead to concentrated risks rather than diversification [5] - Nvidia and Microsoft are identified as the best positioned for potential growth in 2026, contingent on sustained enterprise AI spending [6]

Macro Research - The report highlights a "double hit" moment for US dollar assets due to Trump's comments on Greenland and tariff threats, alongside the early dissolution of the Japanese House of Representatives leading to a sell-off in Japanese bonds [3][4][22] - The US dollar's credit breakdown is re-emerging, with significant impacts on US stocks, bonds, and currencies, resulting in a strong performance of safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while cryptocurrencies face pressure [3][4][22] Strategy Research - In Q4 2025, active funds significantly reduced their holdings in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on increasing allocations to cyclical and financial value stocks, while reducing exposure to technology and healthcare sectors [7][26] - The report indicates a clear rotation in fund styles, with a notable shift towards large-cap cyclical and financial stocks, while growth and consumer sectors saw reductions in allocations [26][27] Fixed Income Research - The appreciation of the RMB and increased foreign exchange settlements may tighten interbank liquidity, depending on whether the central bank will actively increase the supply of base currency [11][14] Industry Research: Photovoltaic Equipment - The report anticipates a new cycle for the photovoltaic equipment industry driven by SpaceX and Tesla's plans to deploy a combined 200GW of solar capacity, with key equipment manufacturers expected to benefit [15][16] - The demand for solar expansion is expected to rise due to the increasing need for low-orbit satellites and the commercialization of space computing, which will drive the demand for core equipment [15][16] Fund Allocation Insights - The report notes a significant increase in allocations to cyclical and financial sectors, particularly in upstream industries like metals and chemicals, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions [27][28] - The technology sector shows a marked divergence, with communication equipment receiving substantial increases due to AI infrastructure investments, while many tech segments faced reductions [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the industry sectors mentioned [2]. Core Insights - The overall industry strategy focuses on the simultaneous rise in energy storage volume and price, with ongoing themes in space and AI [3]. - The new energy vehicle supply chain is entering an upward cycle, benefiting companies like CATL and EVE Energy due to the electrification upgrade and optimization of energy storage patterns [3]. - By the end of December 2025, China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure is expected to reach 20.092 million units, a year-on-year increase of 49.7% [3]. - Global energy storage battery shipments are projected to reach 640 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 82.9%, with CATL maintaining a leading position [3][25]. - The solid-state battery sector is entering a critical phase of engineering and industrialization, with companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Peking University Technology benefiting [4]. Summary by Sections Energy Storage and New Energy - The energy storage trend continues to improve, with companies like Sungrow Power and Huaneng Power benefiting from a significant increase in domestic procurement, which exceeded 100 GWh for the first time [5]. - The average price of lithium battery storage systems has rebounded by 6.39% to 0.5226 yuan/Wh [5]. - AI expansion and global grid upgrades are driving demand for power equipment, benefiting companies like TBEA and Sanyuan Electric [5]. Lithium Carbonate and Battery Materials - The supply and demand for lithium carbonate are exceeding expectations, with companies like Salt Lake Potash and Hunan Youneng benefiting from favorable market conditions [4]. - The cost of phosphoric iron lithium cathode materials has increased, with processing fees rising by 318.7 yuan/ton compared to November averages [4][27]. AI and Robotics in New Energy - The integration of AI and humanoid robots in the new energy sector is gaining traction, with companies like Zhejiang Rongtai and Keda Li benefiting from advancements in robotics [7]. - Tesla's shift towards becoming a robotics company is expected to create new growth cycles, with significant implications for the automotive industry [7][26]. Market Trends and Projections - The report highlights that the global energy storage battery shipment is expected to reach 1,090 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 70% [25]. - The market for commercial energy storage products is evolving, with larger capacity batteries becoming mainstream and driving innovation in the sector [29].

Core Insights - Lemonade has announced a new insurance policy for self-driving cars, starting with Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, leading to a significant stock market reaction with LMND shares increasing by 9% on January 21 and 13% on January 22 [1] - The company promises to reduce per-mile insurance rates by approximately 50% with FSD enabled, based on data showing a substantial decrease in accident rates when FSD is engaged [2] - Lemonade expects its insurance premiums to continue decreasing as Tesla enhances its FSD software, betting that improved autonomy will lead to lower risk assessments for policyholders [2] Company Overview - Lemonade is a tech-enabled insurance company that offers various insurance products, including auto insurance, and utilizes AI, automation, and behavioral economics to differentiate itself from traditional insurers [4] - The company has a market capitalization of around $7 billion and is based in New York [4] - LMND stock has risen by 181% over the past year, trading around $93 per share, close to its high of $99.90, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 Index [5] Valuation Insights - Despite the impressive stock performance, Lemonade remains unprofitable, trading at 10.35 times sales and over 13 times book value, which are valuations that exceed those of traditional insurance companies [6] - The unique business model of Lemonade, powered by AI underwriting and a rising loss ratio, presents a different case compared to conventional insurers [6]

Elon Musk admitted something Tesla bulls didn't want to hear: the Cybercab and Optimus rollout will be "agonizingly slow.†While Tesla stumbles on promises made years ago, Waymo (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is already operating robotaxis in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin. Tesla's delay isn't just a missed deadline. It's a market share transfer to competitors who moved faster. The Companies Fighting for Autonomous Dominance Four companies stand to gain from Tesla's admission that full autonomy remains dist ...

Microsoft will help launch the Big Tech earnings season on Wednesday - ronny hartmann/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images The ongoing fourth-quarter corporate earnings season has gotten a mixed reception. By Friday, 75% of the S&P 500 companies that had reported delivered a positive earnings-per-share surprise, which is below the five-year average of 78%, according to FactSet. This may partly explain — along with geopolitical angst — why the S&P 500 SPX has been struggling to burst above the 7,000 level. ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets are entering a pivotal week with cautious premarket trading, significant corporate earnings reports, and an anticipated Federal Reserve meeting [1] - Investors are weighing geopolitical developments against robust technological advancements and ongoing economic data releases [1] Premarket Activity and Futures Movements - U.S. stock futures indicate a slightly lower open, with Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures fractionally lower, S&P 500 (SPX) futures down by approximately 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures down around 0.4% [2] - This subdued sentiment follows a mixed performance last week for major indices [2] Safe-Haven Assets Performance - Gold futures have surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time, trading up more than 2% at about $5,080 an ounce [3] - Silver futures have hit a new record high above $110 an ounce, marking an almost 9% increase [3] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has slipped to 4.21% from over 4.23% [3] - Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $87,700, showing a slight uptick from overnight lows [3] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures are settling around $60.90 a barrel [3] Current Performance of Major Market Indexes - The S&P 500 (SPX) experienced a slight decline of 0.3%, marking its second consecutive weekly loss [4] - The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) generated a return of 0.3%, while the DJIA finished the week down by 0.5% [4] - On January 26, the DJIA fell 0.6% to 49,098.71 points, the SPX edged up 0.03% to close at 6,915.61, and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) advanced 0.3% to 23,501.24 [4] Upcoming Market Events - A significant week for market participants with a heavy slate of corporate earnings and a crucial Federal Reserve meeting [5] - The Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting concludes on Wednesday, with expectations to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% [6] - Investors will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference for guidance on potential rate cuts and the Fed's stance on inflation and economic growth [6] Economic Data Releases - Investors are closely watching the release of U.S. durable goods orders, expected to have risen by 0.5% in November, and the Producer Price Index (PPI), forecasted to increase by 0.2% in December with core PPI expected to rise by 0.3% [7] Major Earnings Reports - A critical wave of earnings reports from major technology companies, including Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Tesla (TSLA), is scheduled for this week [8] - Other notable companies reporting include IBM (IBM), Boeing (BA), General Motors (GM), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Chevron (CVX), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) [8] Individual Stock Developments - USA Rare Earth (USAR) shares soared over 20% after announcing a non-binding letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce for $1.6 billion in federal funding [10] - CoreWeave (CRWV) stock surged 10% due to an expanded partnership with Nvidia (NVDA), which invested $2 billion in CoreWeave [11] - Intel (INTC) shares were down approximately 2% after a soft outlook and concerns over potential supply issues [12] - Revolution Medicines (RVMD) stock dropped roughly 20% after reports that Merck (MRK) is no longer in acquisition discussions [12] Industry Sentiment - Bill Gates warned about the hype surrounding AI investments, suggesting that not all AI stocks may justify their elevated valuations in a hypercompetitive market [13] - Airline stocks, including Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines (UAL), American Airlines (AAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV), are pointing modestly lower due to over 20,000 flight cancellations caused by a winter storm [14] Future Expectations - Analysts are keenly watching Tesla (TSLA) for updates on full self-driving (FSD) approval and robotaxi deployment [15] - Apple (AAPL) is anticipated to report a record sales quarter driven by strong iPhone sales and growth in services revenue [15] - Microsoft (MSFT) earnings will be closely monitored for updates on AI developments, while Meta Platforms (META) will provide insights into capital expenditures related to its metaverse ambitions [15]

Group 1: Core Insights - The mechanical equipment index increased by 3.19% during the week of January 19-23, 2026 [1] - SpaceX and Tesla plan to achieve an annual solar manufacturing capacity of 100GW within three years, with a focus on space as a key application scenario [2] - The commercialization of Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is progressing, with capabilities expected to expand significantly by the end of 2026 and 2027 [1][2] Group 2: Industry Developments - The third Beijing Commercial Aerospace Industry High-Quality Development Promotion Conference is set to take place, highlighting local efforts to enhance capabilities in research, manufacturing, and support services for commercial aerospace [3] - The "Yizhuang Arrow" is projected to complete 24 launches and carry over 160 satellites in 2025, with the aerospace industry revenue exceeding 32 billion yuan [3] - The conference will focus on various technical directions such as launch vehicles and space infrastructure, indicating a shift in commercial aerospace development from "engineering validation" to "scale delivery and industrial collaboration" [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market focus is shifting from geopolitical crises to macroeconomic factors, fiscal and monetary policies, and corporate earnings disclosures as the last trading week of January 2026 approaches. Key events include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and earnings reports from major tech companies like Tesla and Apple, alongside global storage leaders such as Samsung and SK Hynix [1] Economic and Market Overview - The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase of less than 0.1% on Friday but experienced a weekly decline of 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.7% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite, primarily driven by tech stocks, also entered negative territory with an overall drop of approximately 0.1% [2] - A significant price surge occurred in the U.S. natural gas futures market, with prices skyrocketing by 75% over five trading days due to a winter storm impacting over 1.5 million people [2] - The World Economic Forum in Davos highlighted increasing divisions between the U.S. and its Western allies, alongside intense domestic political confrontations that could lead to a government shutdown [2] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Investors expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the current interest rate range of 3.5%-3.75%, with a 98% probability of this outcome according to CME data. The focus will be on Chairman Powell's outlook on inflation, the job market, and future interest rate paths [6][18] - The nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair is anticipated to be announced soon, with Rick Rieder from BlackRock emerging as a leading candidate [6][19] Corporate Earnings and Tech Sector - Approximately one-fifth of S&P 500 companies will report quarterly earnings this week, including four of the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants: Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla. This earnings season is crucial for assessing the continuation of the current bull market [5][10] - The tech sector has issued nearly $700 billion in investment-grade debt over the past quarter, reflecting a significant shift in the credit market driven by AI investments [8] - Analysts are closely monitoring the earnings reports from major storage companies like SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate, as well as semiconductor giants Samsung and SK Hynix, to gauge the impact on the overall market [9][15] Geopolitical and Regulatory Developments - The Senate Agriculture Committee is set to hold hearings on the CLARITY Act, a significant step in the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory process, which has become increasingly complex amid election year dynamics [7] - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with concerns about the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency and the potential for a more divided and dangerous geopolitical world [3] AI and Market Sentiment - The ongoing "AI faith" narrative is a driving force behind the current bull market, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and applications. The upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies will serve as a critical test for this narrative [10][11] - The market is particularly focused on how AI investments translate into actual productivity growth and revenue, with companies like Tesla and Meta under scrutiny for their AI-related revenue streams [12][13]

Group 1: AI Leadership and Competitiveness - The European Union (EU) is lagging behind the US and China in the global AI leadership race, which poses a threat to its long-term competitiveness and industrial growth [1] - Politicians and tech leaders at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos emphasized the need for Europe to change its course to remain tech competitive and stimulate economic growth [1] Group 2: Regulatory and Economic Challenges - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz highlighted that Europe has wasted growth potential due to excessive regulation and bureaucracy, calling for substantial reductions in these areas [2] - High electricity costs, over-regulation, and geopolitical instability have significantly impacted Europe's AI and tech adoption [2] Group 3: Energy Market Dynamics - The prolonged Russia-Ukraine war has led to increased natural gas prices in Europe, which surged by 30% in the week ending January 21 [3] - European spot electricity prices are currently 2-3 times higher than those in the USA, exacerbating the region's energy challenges [8] Group 4: Data Center Demand and Energy Sources - Europe's data center power demand is projected to grow by 2.7% to 5% of total electricity use between 2025 and 2030, with a forecasted rise to 236 TWh by 2035 [11] - Renewable energy accounted for 46% of total EU energy production in 2023, with nuclear energy contributing 29% [17] Group 5: Investment in Infrastructure - US tech giants are investing heavily in European data centers, with Microsoft planning to invest €3.2 billion in German data centers by 2025 [22] - Elon Musk suggested that space could become a viable solution for AI data centers due to its cooling advantages and solar energy potential [29] Group 6: Structural Issues and Future Opportunities - Tech leaders, including Palantir's CEO, warned that Europe's tech adoption gap is a serious structural problem that needs addressing [9] - Jensen Huang, founder of NVIDIA, urged Europe to leverage its factories for AI and robotics, viewing it as a significant opportunity for job creation [30]