海外商业航天产业追踪 SpaceX：新型空间态势感知系统使让卫星"睁开眼" glmszqdatemark 为什么空间态势感知系统越来越重要？核心在于近年来卫星发射的"井喷式"发 展。近年来，随着低地球轨道（LEO）内卫星数量的增加，太空交通拥堵和碰撞风 险已成为全球航天界关注的重大问题。我们在前期报告《SpaceX：百万卫星计划 暗示低轨空间稀缺如"黄金"》中曾论述过，在低轨空间容量有限的背景下，全球提 交的星座计划越来越多，发生节奏或倾向于加速。火箭残骸长期滞留轨道、部分 运营商机动时不共享轨迹预测、某些国家进行反卫星测试，这些行为都显著加剧 了太空碎片和碰撞威胁。传统地面雷达系统观测频率有限，轨道预测不确定性较 大，尤其受空间天气影响，预警往往滞后。在此背景下，能显著提高低地球轨道 （LEO）卫星运行的安全性和可持续性的 SSA 技术自然得到各国重点关注。 近期 SpaceX Stargaze 系统的引用，或为马斯克"百万卫星计划"保驾护航。与 传统的地面系统相比，Stargaze 的探测能力或提高了几个数量级。Stargaze 使 用近 3 万个星体跟踪器收集的数据，每个跟踪器都对附近的物体进行持续观测 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that in the Agent era, the ability to transform strong capabilities into high-frequency productivity at lower costs is crucial, highlighting MiniMax's advantages in this regard [4][7]. - Clawdbot has rapidly gained traction, with over 130,000 stars on GitHub and more than 2 million visits to its official website, marking it as one of the fastest-growing open-source technology projects [7]. - The M2.1 model from MiniMax is noted for its efficiency and cost-effectiveness, addressing the high token costs faced by developers in automated programming [7][14]. - The report discusses the importance of multi-modal capabilities in understanding visual information, which enhances the functionality of Agents in various workflows [4][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the transition of large models from mere chat tools to autonomous employees, suggesting that companies with core algorithms and industry interfaces will benefit significantly from the trend towards intelligent automation [14]. Model Performance - MiniMax's M2.1 model is designed to reduce token costs to approximately 8% of Claude Sonnet's pricing, with an innovative billing mechanism that allows for high-frequency usage [7][14]. - The model's long-text capabilities enable it to handle complex workflows, accommodating more extended documents and reducing logical breaks due to truncation [7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a significant increase in API call frequency and token throughput, driven by the emergence of AI-only communities like Moltbook, which has rapidly amassed a million agent accounts [7]. - The M2.1 model's reasoning and programming capabilities make it a suitable choice for production systems, emphasizing its high cost-performance ratio [7].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, China Jushi (600176.SH), with a current price of 20.15 CNY [2]. Core Views - China Jushi is a leading player in the global fiberglass industry, with a strong focus on innovation and cost advantages. The company has maintained a solid growth trajectory, with significant increases in revenue and net profit over the years [6][14]. - The company is expected to continue its expansion and product high-endization, which will enhance its profitability and growth momentum. The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 20%, 11%, and 10% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - China Jushi is recognized as a pioneer in the fiberglass industry in China, evolving into a global leader with the largest production capacity for both fiberglass roving and electronic fabrics [14]. - The company has a market share of approximately 34% in the domestic fiberglass sector and 25% in the electronic fabric sector, both ranking first globally [14]. 2. Production Capacity and Innovation - The company has consistently expanded its production capacity, with a focus on high-end products. As of October 2025, it has the largest production capacity for fiberglass roving and electronic fabrics globally [30][31]. - The report highlights that the company has maintained high capital expenditures to support its growth, with production capacity increasing from 210,000 tons in 2004 to 2.74 million tons by the end of 2024 for fiberglass roving [31]. 3. Cost Advantages and Profitability - China Jushi has a significant cost advantage, with its production cost per ton being 1,017 CNY lower than the average of its competitors in 2024. The company has successfully reduced its production costs from 5,888 CNY per ton in 2001 to 3,563 CNY per ton in 2024 [47][51]. - The company's gross margin for fiberglass products is projected to be 24.3% in 2024, which is 9.1 percentage points higher than the average of its competitors [51]. 4. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report projects that the company's revenue will reach 15.86 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.6%. By 2027, revenue is expected to grow to 23.13 billion CNY [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 2.45 billion CNY in 2024, with a significant increase of 39.3% expected in 2025 [2]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the growth potential of China Jushi should not be underestimated, and it recommends a "Buy" rating based on the company's strong market position and ongoing product high-endization efforts [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for BYD (002594.SZ) with a current price of 87.05 CNY per share [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by high-end product offerings and international expansion, with projected revenues of 777.1 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 1,104.5 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.6% [3][20]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 40.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 58.6 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 34.0% in 2024, followed by a decrease of 7.5% in 2025, and then a recovery with growth rates of 27.4% and 23.4% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [3][20]. - The report highlights a significant decline in January's sales figures, with wholesale sales of new energy vehicles dropping by 30.1% year-on-year and 50.0% month-on-month, indicating a challenging market environment [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2027 are as follows: - 2024: 777.1 billion CNY - 2025: 866.5 billion CNY - 2026: 981.3 billion CNY - 2027: 1,104.5 billion CNY - The expected growth rates for these years are 29.0%, 11.5%, 13.3%, and 12.6% respectively [3][20]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 40.3 billion CNY - 2025: 37.2 billion CNY - 2026: 47.5 billion CNY - 2027: 58.6 billion CNY - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 4.42 CNY in 2024 to 6.43 CNY in 2027 [3][20]. Sales Performance - In January, BYD's wholesale sales of new energy vehicles totaled 210,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 50.0% [8]. - The report notes that the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles also saw significant declines, with respective year-on-year decreases of 28.5% and 33.6% [8]. - The high-end brand, Fangchengbao, has shown strong sales momentum, with cumulative sales surpassing 300,000 units, indicating a successful high-end strategy [8]. International Expansion - BYD's international sales have shown a positive trend, with January exports reaching 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 51.5% [8]. - The company is expanding its overseas manufacturing capabilities, with new factories in Brazil and plans for additional facilities in Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia, which are expected to enhance profitability [8].

| 单位 / 百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 240,194 | 404,783 | 489,688 | 572,828 | | 增长率（%） | 34.0 | 68.5 | 21.0 | 17.0 | | 净利润 | 16,632 | 16,208 | 22,085 | 25,971 | | 增长率（%） | 213.3 | -2.6 | 36.3 | 17.6 | | EPS | 1.53 | 1.49 | 2.03 | 2.38 | | P/E | 10 | 10 | 7 | 6 | | P/B | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 吉利汽车（0175.HK）系列点评三十七： 插混+出口双增托底 极氪引领增长 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 03 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：崔琰 执业证书：S0590525110023 邮箱：cuiyan@glms.com.cn 风险提示：新车销量不及预期；"价格战"加剧；欧盟关税影响出海销量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile (0175.HK) [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing growth driven by both plug-in hybrid and export sales, with Zeekr leading the growth [9] - The report highlights a differentiated development in the new energy sector, with plug-in hybrid vehicles showing a 37% year-on-year increase, while pure electric vehicle sales declined by 15% [9] - The export market has seen a significant increase of 121% year-on-year, indicating a successful transition from simple product exports to localized operations [9] - The establishment of a joint venture for core technology research and testing services is expected to enhance long-term competitiveness [9] Financial Forecasts and Indicators - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 240,194 million, 404,783 million, 489,688 million, and 572,828 million RMB respectively, with growth rates of 34.0%, 68.5%, 21.0%, and 17.0% [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 16,632 million, 16,208 million, 22,085 million, and 25,971 million RMB, with growth rates of 213.3%, -2.6%, 36.3%, and 17.6% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.53, 1.49, 2.03, and 2.38 RMB for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 10, 10, 7, and 6 for the respective years [4] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected at 1.8, 1.6, 1.3, and 1.1 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for BYD (002594.SZ) with a current price of 87.05 CNY per share [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by high-end product offerings and international expansion, with projected revenues of 777.1 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 1,104.5 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.6% [3][20]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 40.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 58.6 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 34.0% in 2024, followed by a decrease of 7.5% in 2025, and then a recovery with growth rates of 27.4% and 23.4% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [3][20]. - The report highlights a significant decline in January's sales figures, with wholesale sales of new energy vehicles dropping by 30.1% year-on-year and 50.0% month-on-month, indicating a challenging market environment [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2027 are as follows: - 2024: 777.1 billion CNY - 2025: 866.5 billion CNY - 2026: 981.3 billion CNY - 2027: 1,104.5 billion CNY - The expected growth rates for these years are 29.0%, 11.5%, 13.3%, and 12.6% respectively [3][20]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 40.3 billion CNY - 2025: 37.2 billion CNY - 2026: 47.5 billion CNY - 2027: 58.6 billion CNY - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 4.42 CNY in 2024 to 6.43 CNY in 2027 [3][20]. Market Performance - The report notes that BYD's high-end brand, Fangchengbao, has seen significant sales growth, with the Ti 7 model alone achieving sales of 100,000 units, marking it as a key growth driver for the company's high-end strategy [8]. - International sales are also on the rise, with January exports of new energy vehicles reaching 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 51.5%, despite a month-on-month decline of 24.5% [8]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on enhancing its high-end brand positioning and expanding its international footprint, with new factories being established in Brazil and plans for further expansion in Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancement and brand loyalty in solidifying BYD's position in the high-end market [8].

中国巨石（600176.SH）深度报告 玻纤全球龙头，产品持续向上攀登 glmszqdatemark 相对走势 -10% 30% 70% 110% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/2 中国巨石 沪深300 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 15,856 | 18,964 | 20,947 | 23,125 | | 增长率（%） | 6.6 | 19.6 | 10.5 | 10.4 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 2,445 | 3,405 | 3,871 | 4,387 | | 增长率（%） | -19.7 | 39.3 | 13.7 | 13.3 | | 每股收益（元） | 0.61 | 0.85 | 0.97 | 1.10 | | PE | 33 | 24 | 21 | 18 | | PB | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2 ...

Group 1 - The liquidity situation in February is expected to be better than in January, with MLF and reverse repos maturing decreasing from 1.9 trillion to 1.5 trillion yuan, and net financing of government bonds estimated at around 1.2 trillion yuan [9][15] - The issuance of local government bonds is significantly front-loaded in February, with an expected issuance of 906.7 billion yuan in the first week, and net financing of 720.9 billion yuan, including 579.7 billion yuan in local bonds [15][45] - By February 8, the cumulative issuance of local bonds is expected to reach 1.443 trillion yuan, with 778.7 billion yuan of ultra-long local bonds issued, accounting for 54% of the total [15][45] Group 2 - The local bond issuance plan for Q1 2026 totals 2.6549 trillion yuan, with monthly plans of 809 billion, 884.9 billion, and 960.9 billion yuan for January, February, and March respectively [15][49] - There is a strong willingness among regions to maintain a lower limit for bonds with maturities under 10 years, reflecting considerations for fiscal cost control, while there is less intervention for ultra-long bonds [16][46] - In January 2026, insurance companies had a net purchase of local bonds amounting to 135.4 billion yuan, compared to 120.6 billion yuan in the same period last year [16][46]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - In 2026, real estate policies remain "stable". Policies for the resident sector focus on "burden - reduction", while those for real - estate enterprises prioritize risk prevention. The phasing - out of the "Three Red Lines" policy and other measures may have contributed to a certain repair of the trading sentiment of real - estate entities [5][10][12]. - Although real - estate bonds have increased in trading volume and average trading duration, the high - valuation ratio remains above 60%. It is recommended to trade real - estate entities cautiously and choose short - duration state - owned enterprises within 1Y [20]. - The credit bond market is active this week. Considering the possible stable and loose funds and the allocation demand of amortized debt funds, the spreads of each term are likely to remain low and may narrow further. Investment strategies include basic allocation of short - term credit products and enhancing returns by considering 5 - 10Y secondary perpetual bonds or 5Y urban investment and industrial bonds [27]. - Different regions' urban investment platforms have different investment logics. For example, "economic powerhouses" can appropriately extend the duration to 5 years, regions with debt - resolution policies can consider a duration of less than 3 years, and prefecture - level cities with strong industrial bases can choose a 3 - 5Y duration [41][42][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Real - Estate Hot Events 1.1 The Gradual Exit of the "Three Red Lines" Policy - On January 28, 2026, regulatory authorities no longer required real - estate enterprises to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly. The "Three Red Lines" policy was introduced in August 2020, which set standards for real - estate financing and implemented differentiated debt - scale management based on enterprises' "line - crossing" situations [5][8]. 1.2 A Review of Real - Estate - Related Policies Since 2026 - For the resident sector, policies since January 1, 2026, include VAT adjustments for housing sales, tax - refund policies for home - replacement, and interest - rate cuts for existing housing loans. For real - estate enterprises, policies focus on risk prevention, such as loan extensions for projects on the "white list" and the implementation of project - company systems and host - bank systems [10][12]. 2. How Far Has the Sentiment of Real - Estate Bonds Recovered? 2.1 Recent Trading Conditions in the Real - Estate Bond Market - In January 2026, the trading volume of industrial urban investment real - estate bonds gradually increased, while that of urban investment real - estate bonds fluctuated. The high - valuation trading ratio of both industrial and urban investment real - estate entities remained between 60 - 70%. The daily peak trading volume of industrial real - estate bonds was 9.332 billion yuan on January 26, and that of urban investment real - estate bonds was 5.344 billion yuan on January 13. The trading activity of industrial real - estate entities increased significantly within the month [14]. 2.2 How Far Has the Trading Sentiment of Popular Industrial Real - Estate Entities Recovered? - Except for Vanke, the average YTM of popular industrial real - estate entities increased in January 2026. Some entities showed a phenomenon of trading pulling up the duration, which may explain the increase in average trading YTM. However, entities like Cinda Investment and Huafa Co., Ltd. had significant increases in trading yields without a significant increase in average duration at the end of the month, and their trading deviated significantly from the valuation, indicating that there may still be a large number of sell - offs [19][20]. 3. Investment Strategies - The credit bond market is active this week, with the trading volume increasing to about 1.74 trillion yuan. The average trading duration of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds in the secondary market has increased. In the primary market, the issuance of urban investment financial bonds has decreased. Considering the possible stable and loose funds and the allocation demand of amortized debt funds, the spreads of each term are likely to remain low and may narrow further [27]. - Allocation plans include basic allocation of short - term credit products with relatively controllable credit risks and enhancing returns by considering 5 - 10Y secondary perpetual bonds or 5Y urban investment and industrial bonds. Some 5 - 10Y secondary perpetual bonds still show certain relative value, and attention can also be paid to 5Y securities company subordinated bonds and 10Y secondary capital bonds [27][31]. - For urban investment platforms in different regions, different investment logics are proposed. For "economic powerhouses" such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, etc., the duration can be appropriately extended to 5 years; for regions with significant debt - resolution policies, a duration of less than 3 years can be considered; for prefecture - level cities with strong industrial bases, a 3 - 5Y duration is recommended [41][42][43]. 4. Primary Market Tracking - Relevant figures are provided, including this week's credit bond issuance, financial bond issuance, credit bond exchange review and registration, and credit bond association registration completion, but specific data analysis is not elaborated in the summary part [56][59][63][66]. 5. Secondary Market Observation 5.1 The "Volume" of Secondary Market Transactions - Figures show this week's credit bond trading scale and quantity, urban investment bond trading scale by province, industrial bond trading scale by industry, and the weighted trading duration of urban investment and industrial bonds by province [68][72][79][80]. 5.2 The "Price" of Secondary Market Transactions - Figures show this week's urban investment bond yields by term and implied rating, industrial bond yields by enterprise type (state - owned and private enterprises), and financial bond yields by province and variety [81][82][83][84][85].