Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the CPU industry, indicating a cautious outlook on the sector's performance relative to the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The CPU's importance is expected to significantly increase due to advancements in AI and the emergence of new computational scenarios, which demand higher processing speeds and precision [13]. - DeepSeek's recent developments in AI model architecture highlight the potential for CPUs to handle large-scale models more efficiently, reducing reliance on expensive GPU memory [5][6]. - The ongoing shortage of CPU supply, particularly from leading manufacturers like Intel, is projected to peak in the first quarter of 2026, driven by demand exceeding supply [6][7]. Summary by Sections CPU Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for CPUs is anticipated to rise due to the increasing need for processing power in AI applications, with Intel indicating that the shortage may persist as they do not plan to expand production capacity [6][7]. - The report notes that the design of systems that decouple storage and computation can lead to significant efficiency gains, allowing for larger model parameters to be stored in cost-effective CPU memory [5][6]. AI Agent Trends - The report discusses the expected growth in the number of active AI agents, predicting an increase from approximately 28.6 million in 2025 to 2.216 billion by 2030, which will drive CPU demand [12]. - The annual execution of tasks by these agents is projected to rise dramatically, necessitating a substantial increase in CPU supply to meet the demands of AI workloads [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key areas within the CPU ecosystem, including CPU chip manufacturers, advanced wafer fabrication, and related solutions, highlighting companies such as Haiguang Information and SMIC [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major airlines, including China National Aviation (China Air), China Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, and others, based on their projected earnings growth and favorable market conditions [2][3]. Core Insights - The domestic passenger load factor has increased significantly, reaching a historical high of 85.7% in December 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points [7][10]. - The international passenger load factor has shown a slight increase, but the growth rate has slowed due to disruptions in the Japanese route, with December figures reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points [14][15]. - The overall industry demand growth continues to outpace supply growth, with a combined ASK/RPK increase of 6.6% and 9.1% respectively for the six listed airlines in December [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. December International Supply and Demand Trends - The demand growth in December 2025 exceeded supply growth, with both domestic and international load factors reaching historical highs [10][11]. - The domestic routes saw a supply increase of 4.2% in ASK and a demand increase of 7.2% in RPK, while international routes experienced a 12.0% increase in ASK and a 13.3% increase in RPK [7][14]. 2. Aircraft Introductions and Fleet Growth - The total fleet of the six airlines increased by 0.4% in December, with a net addition of 14 aircraft, bringing the total to 3,386 [22][24]. - The A320 series was the primary aircraft introduced, with significant contributions from China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [22][27]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the tight supply-demand relationship in domestic routes will lead to a moderate increase in ticket prices in 2026, supported by regulatory measures to address low pricing [7][11]. - The international routes are expected to benefit from increased inbound tourism, with airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines positioned to gain from this trend [7][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) [2] Core Views - The acquisition of DFS's Greater China business marks a new chapter for China Duty Free Group, enhancing its position in the tourism retail market [8] - The transaction involves a cash purchase of up to $395 million for DFS's assets and equity in the Greater China region, which is expected to strengthen the company's service network in Hong Kong and Macau [8] - The partnership with LVMH is anticipated to optimize product structure and service levels, further enhancing the company's competitive edge [8] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenue for 2024 is 56.47 billion yuan, with a decline of 16.4%, followed by a slight decrease to 54.52 billion yuan in 2025, and growth to 62.18 billion yuan in 2026 and 69.63 billion yuan in 2027 [2][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.27 billion yuan in 2024, decreasing by 36.4%, then recovering to 3.88 billion yuan in 2025, and increasing to 5.18 billion yuan in 2026 and 5.82 billion yuan in 2027 [2][9] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.06 yuan in 2024, 1.88 yuan in 2025, 2.50 yuan in 2026, and 2.81 yuan in 2027 [2][9] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 46 in 2024, increasing to 51 in 2025, and then decreasing to 38 in 2026 and 34 in 2027 [2][9] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 3.6 in 2024, slightly decreasing to 3.5 in 2025, and further to 3.3 in 2026 and 3.1 in 2027 [2][9]

宁波银行（002142.SZ）2025 年度业绩快报点评 中收表现亮眼 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 21 日 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 66,631 | 71,968 | 80,692 | 90,804 | | 增长率（%） | 8.2 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 12.5 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 27,127 | 29,333 | 32,923 | 37,285 | | 增长率（%） | 6.2 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | | 每股收益（元） | 3.95 | 4.29 | 4.83 | 5.49 | | PE（X） | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | | PB（X） | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 20 日收盘价） | 推荐 | 维持评级 | | ...

宁波银行（002142.SZ）2025 年度业绩快报点评 中收表现亮眼 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 21 日 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 66,631 | 71,968 | 80,692 | 90,804 | | 增长率（%） | 8.2 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 12.5 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 27,127 | 29,333 | 32,923 | 37,285 | | 增长率（%） | 6.2 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | | 每股收益（元） | 3.95 | 4.29 | 4.83 | 5.49 | | PE（X） | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | | PB（X） | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | [Table_Author] | 分析师 王先爽 | | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525120014 | | 邮箱 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in profits due to industry fluctuations, with a projected total profit of 9.72 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 37.59% [1][2]. - The company's sales remain the highest in the industry, with a signed sales amount of 253 billion yuan in 2025, despite a year-on-year decrease of 21.67% [3]. - The company has announced a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to annual cash dividends of no less than 40% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's expected revenue for 2025 is 308.26 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.09% year-on-year [1][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.03 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant decline of 79.49% compared to the previous year [1][6]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.09 yuan, with expected growth rates of -79.5% for 2025, +67.9% for 2026, and +63.0% for 2027 [5][6].

External Factors - Trump's tariffs remain a hot topic, with a shift towards using tariffs as a negotiation tool for trade agreements and to alleviate domestic pressures[4] - In 2025, tariff revenues increased by approximately $118 billion, which could have led to a larger fiscal deficit without these tariffs[10] - The geopolitical strategy shows a tendency towards strategic withdrawal, with a focus on Latin America and limited military intervention, potentially weakening the U.S.'s global institutional advantages[8] Internal Factors - The fiscal policy is characterized by a struggle to effectively reduce the deficit, with projections indicating that the fiscal deficit for FY 2025 may expand without significant changes[6] - The 2026 fiscal year is expected to face challenges in implementing substantial fiscal tightening, with a projected deficit rate higher than in 2024[10] - Trump's policy shift towards resource redistribution may increase volatility in U.S. asset prices, particularly affecting financial and large tech companies while benefiting smaller firms[10] Market Implications - The combination of expansionary fiscal policy and a coordinated monetary policy may support global liquidity, favoring risk assets[10] - Non-U.S. assets may benefit from spillover effects, while U.S. assets could experience structural differentiation, with a tendency for the dollar to depreciate[10] - The focus on resource redistribution may lead to increased scrutiny on consumer goods and essential sectors, impacting inflation concerns among voters[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for JD Group (9618.HK) with a current price of HKD 113.60 [2][8]. Core Views - The fourth quarter performance is expected to stabilize, supported by favorable policies and business optimizations, leading to a recovery in 2026 [2][8]. - Revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to decline by 0.7% year-on-year to RMB 344.7 billion, influenced by high base effects and the timing of the New Year holiday [8]. - The retail business structure is being optimized, with growth contributions from daily necessities and third-party (3P) ecosystems, while new business losses are on a clear reduction path [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for JD Group are as follows: - 2024: RMB 1,158.8 billion - 2025: RMB 1,301.5 billion (growth rate of 12.3%) - 2026: RMB 1,367.8 billion (growth rate of 5.1%) - 2027: RMB 1,433.6 billion (growth rate of 4.8%) [7][8]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2024: RMB 47.8 billion - 2025: RMB 26.0 billion (decline of 46%) - 2026: RMB 28.0 billion (growth of 8%) - 2027: RMB 31.3 billion (growth of 12%) [7][8]. - The report anticipates a recovery in revenue and profit in Q1 2026 due to policy implementation and consumption recovery [8]. Business Segment Insights - The report highlights that the daily necessities category is expected to maintain growth, driven by synergies from delivery services and supply chain optimizations [8]. - The performance of the electronics and digital products categories is anticipated to decline due to the reduction of government subsidies [8]. - The report emphasizes that the commission and advertising revenues are expected to grow at double-digit rates, benefiting from increased activity among third-party merchants [8].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity environment may face pressure due to the upcoming expiration of nearly 1 trillion yuan in pledged reverse repos, accelerated government bond issuance, and tax payment deadlines around January 20, which is a significant tax month [6][9][12] - The central bank has stated it will continue to increase liquidity injection and flexibly use various tools in open market operations to maintain ample liquidity, aiming to guide overnight rates close to the policy rate level of 1.40% [6][9][12] - The report highlights that local government bond issuance plans for January to March 2026 total 21,180 billion yuan, with 8,145 billion yuan planned for January, 4,424 billion yuan for February, and 8,611 billion yuan for March [14][37] Group 2 - The report notes that local bond supply has been notably slow, attributed to the delayed timing of local legislative sessions, which affects the actual issuance of new bonds [14][37] - As of January 18, 2026, local government bonds issued totaled 4,241 billion yuan, with 2,458 billion yuan in ultra-long bonds, accounting for 58% of the total, and 1,799 billion yuan in debt-restructuring bonds, accounting for 42% [14][37] - The report suggests that the current market conditions may lead to a focus on market-oriented issuance for ultra-long bonds, particularly in regions like Xinjiang, where the bidding spread is set significantly higher than secondary market spreads [41][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for JD Group (9618.HK) [2][8] Core Views - The fourth quarter performance is expected to stabilize, with policy benefits and business optimization contributing to a recovery in 2026 [2][8] - Revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to decline by 0.7% year-on-year to 344.7 billion RMB, influenced by high base effects and the timing of the New Year festival [8] - The retail business structure is being optimized, with growth supported by daily necessities and service revenues, while new business losses are on a clear reduction path [8] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenues for JD Group from 2025 to 2027 are 1,301.5 billion RMB, 1,367.8 billion RMB, and 1,433.6 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 12.3%, 5.1%, and 4.8% respectively [7][8] - Adjusted net profits for the same period are expected to be 25.98 billion RMB, 28.05 billion RMB, and 31.32 billion RMB, with growth rates of -46%, 8%, and 12% respectively [7][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) based on adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 8.15 RMB, 8.80 RMB, and 9.83 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][8] Business Performance Insights - The online retail sector is expected to show resilience, with a projected growth of 8.6% year-on-year in online retail sales for 2025, while physical goods online retail sales are expected to grow by 5.2% [8] - The daily necessities category is anticipated to maintain double-digit growth, driven by strong performance in supermarkets, health, and fashion segments [8] - The report highlights that the new business segments are on a path to reduce losses, with improvements in user experience and customer retention in the food delivery service [8]