Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, among others [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the aviation industry as flight volumes increase, with a focus on the upcoming Spring Festival travel season and the performance of airline ticket pre-sales [6][29]. - SF Holding is noted for its high cash reserves and low valuation, suggesting a strong potential for valuation recovery in the near future [6][21]. - The logistics sector is seeing strong resource integration capabilities, with Shimon Logistics preparing for its upcoming IPO [46]. Summary by Sections 1. SF Holding: High Safety Margin and Low Valuation - SF Holding has substantial cash reserves, with cash accounting for 14.2%, 20.5%, and 16.2% of total market value from 2022 to 2024, providing a strong support for stock prices [9][12]. - The expected shareholder return rate for 2025E and 2026E is projected to reach 3.8%, with dividend yields of 2.57% and 2.88% respectively [12][15]. - The current PE ratio of SF Holding is at 18X, close to the market's historical low, indicating a potential for valuation recovery as market conditions improve [24][21]. 2. Aviation Tracking: Recovery from Off-Season - Domestic flight volumes increased to 89,086 flights from January 10 to January 16, 2026, a 2.7% rise compared to the previous week, reaching 112% of the 2019 levels [29][30]. - The average daily aircraft utilization rate rose to 7.89 hours, reflecting a 2.1% increase from the previous week [30]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see 5.39 billion railway passengers, a 5% increase year-on-year, which may positively influence airline ticket sales [6][29]. 3. Comprehensive Logistics Companies: Shimon Logistics IPO - Shimon Logistics has established a strong competitive advantage in the logistics sector, providing long-term services to leading global manufacturing companies [46][48]. - The company is expected to generate revenues of 9.2 billion yuan in 2025, despite a projected decline due to reduced demand from major clients [48][51]. - The logistics business is segmented into comprehensive supply chain services and trunk transportation services, with the former accounting for 76% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [48][49]. 4. Continuous Improvement in the Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector saw a slight decline in revenue in November 2025, with a total of 1,376.5 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year, while the volume increased by 5% [59][62]. - The average revenue per package in the express delivery industry was 7.62 yuan, reflecting a 1.9% increase from the previous month [62][69]. - Companies like SF Holding, Shentong, and Yunda are recommended for their strong performance and potential for price recovery in the express delivery market [80].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the motorcycle industry, particularly recommending companies like Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle due to the rapid expansion of the mid-to-large displacement motorcycle market [20][21]. Core Insights - The motorcycle industry is experiencing steady growth, with total sales of 952,000 units in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.9% [4]. - The growth in sales is primarily driven by the 125-150cc and 500-800cc segments, with significant contributions from leading companies such as Chuanfeng Power and Longxin General [4][5]. - The export market for motorcycles has shown a robust increase, with a cumulative export of 533,000 units in 2025, up 48.5% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In December 2025, sales of motorcycles above 250cc reached 69,000 units, up 1.8% year-on-year and 12.9% month-on-month [3][4]. - Cumulative sales for the year reached 952,000 units, with a notable increase in domestic sales of 41.9 million units, up 5.4% year-on-year [4]. Market Structure - The 500cc+ segment has shown strong growth, with sales of 13,000 units in December, a year-on-year increase of 63.6% [5]. - The 250cc to 400cc segment also performed well, with December sales of 45,000 units, up 16.3% year-on-year [5]. Competitive Landscape - The top three companies in the 250cc+ segment are Longxin General, Chuanfeng Power, and Qianjiang Motorcycle, with a combined market share of 35.4% in December [6]. - Longxin General maintained a market share of 15.0% in December, while Chuanfeng Power held 14.8% [6]. Company-Specific Insights - Chuanfeng Power's total two-wheeler sales in December reached 38,000 units, with a significant increase in electric motorcycle sales [9]. - Longxin General has focused on expanding its export business, with a cumulative export of 138,200 units in 2025, despite a year-on-year decline in total sales [14]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle has improved its product definition capabilities, launching new models that cater to various market segments [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, among others [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the aviation industry as flight volumes increase, with domestic flights reaching 89,086 flights from January 10 to January 16, 2026, a 2.7% increase from the previous week [29]. - SF Holding is noted for its high safety margin and low valuation, with a current PE ratio of 18X, indicating potential for valuation recovery as market conditions improve [6][24]. - The logistics company Shimon Holdings is preparing for its IPO, showcasing strong resource integration capabilities and a stable revenue growth trajectory [46][48]. Summary by Sections SF Holding - SF Holding has a substantial cash reserve, with cash accounting for 14.2% to 20.5% of its market value from 2022 to 2024, providing a strong support for its stock price [9]. - The company is expected to achieve a shareholder return rate of 3.8% in 2025 and 2026, with dividend yields projected at 2.57% and 2.88% respectively [12][15]. - The current valuation is at a ten-year low, suggesting a potential for recovery as demand in the mid-to-high-end express market improves [21][24]. Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is emerging from a low season, with flight utilization rates improving to 7.89 hours per day, which is 92.6% of the levels seen in 2019 [30]. - The upcoming Spring Festival travel season is anticipated to boost passenger numbers, with a projected 5.39 billion travelers expected on railways, marking a 5% year-on-year increase [6][29]. - The average ticket price for domestic economy class has increased by 3.5% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in pricing power [39]. Logistics Sector - Shimon Holdings is recognized for its strong resource integration and stable revenue growth, with expected revenues of 9.2 billion yuan in 2025, despite a projected decline due to client revenue drops [48][51]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with major clients, ensuring a stable business model and low replacement risk [46][47]. - Revenue from the supply chain logistics service segment is expected to contribute significantly to overall earnings, with a projected revenue of 3.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [48]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is experiencing a gradual improvement in pricing, with single ticket revenue for major companies like SF Holding and Yunda showing positive trends [59][62]. - The overall express delivery business volume has increased by 5% year-on-year, indicating robust demand despite a slight decline in revenue [59]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of express delivery companies as they adapt to market conditions and pricing strategies [80].

Investment Rating - The report provides a neutral investment rating for the industry [59]. Core Insights - Solid State Circuit Breakers (SSCB) represent a significant technological advancement in circuit protection, transitioning from traditional electromechanical structures to power electronic devices, which better meet the demands of DC systems for high-speed, frequent operations, and compact designs [4][21]. - The necessity for SSCBs in AI Data Centers (AIDC) is emphasized, as they are critical components in the 800V DC ecosystem, enhancing the system's capacity to handle high power density loads and ensuring safety and rapid fault protection [5][30]. - The report identifies key players in the SSCB market, including companies like ABB, Eaton, and domestic firms such as Liangxin, Chint, and Taiyong Changzheng, highlighting their innovations and contributions to the industry [32][36][39][41][43]. Summary by Sections 1. What is a Solid State Circuit Breaker? - SSCBs utilize power semiconductor devices like IGBT, MOSFET, and SiC MOSFET to achieve current interruption, addressing challenges faced by traditional mechanical circuit breakers in DC systems [4][21]. - The advantages of SSCBs include extremely fast interruption speeds, no arcing or contact wear, excellent adaptability to DC systems, and high electrical longevity and reliability [16][21]. 2. Why AIDC Needs Solid State Circuit Breakers? - The evolution of data center power supply architecture is moving towards DC systems, which reduce energy conversion losses and improve efficiency [24][26]. - The report outlines the transition from traditional AC systems to a centralized DC supply model, which enhances power density and reliability [26][30]. 3. Related Companies - **ABB**: A leading provider of electrical solutions, ABB's SACE Infinitus solid state circuit breaker offers rapid fault interruption and significant power loss reduction [36]. - **Eaton**: Known for its power management solutions, Eaton's Polaris solid state circuit breaker features fast fault interruption and is designed for data centers and renewable energy applications [39]. - **Liangxin**: A domestic leader in low-voltage electrical products, Liangxin is focusing on smart distribution and has developed solid state circuit breakers for high power density applications [41]. - **Chint**: A major player in the low-voltage electrical industry, Chint is expanding its product line to include solid state circuit breakers to meet the growing demand in renewable energy and data centers [43]. - **Taiyong Changzheng**: This company has been an early adopter of SSCB technology, offering products that enhance the reliability and safety of DC power systems [49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for key companies in the semiconductor and storage sectors, including 拓荆科技, 中微公司, and 中芯国际 [3][4]. Core Insights - TSMC's aggressive capacity expansion reflects strong confidence, with a capital expenditure (Capex) guidance for 2026 reaching up to $56 billion, a 37% increase from 2025 [10][12]. - The AI segment is expected to grow significantly, with TSMC revising its AI processor revenue CAGR to mid-high 50% [12][13]. - The storage market is experiencing price increases, with DRAM prices projected to rise by 40%-50% in Q1 2026 and NAND prices by 20% in the same period [15][18]. - The packaging and testing sector is seeing price hikes due to tight capacity and rising raw material costs, with increases expected to reach 30% [21][26]. Summary by Sections TSMC's Expansion and AI Growth - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.73 billion, a 25.5% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 62.3% [10][12]. - The company anticipates continued high growth into 2026, with Q1 revenue guidance of $34.6-$35.8 billion, representing a 37.9% YoY increase [10][12]. - Advanced process nodes (3nm, 5nm, 7nm) accounted for 77% of revenue, with high-performance computing (HPC) leading the growth [10][12]. Storage Market Dynamics - The storage market is benefiting from increased demand driven by AI and server capacity, leading to a historical high in supplier bargaining power [15][18]. - Specific DRAM products are expected to see significant price increases, with 64GB RDIMM DDR5 projected to rise by 40% in Q1 2026 [16][18]. Packaging and Testing Price Increases - The packaging sector is experiencing price increases due to high demand and raw material cost surges, with major Taiwanese firms reporting near-full capacity utilization [21][26]. - Companies like 力成 and 华东 are seeing increased orders and revenue visibility, indicating a positive outlook for the packaging sector [21][26].

Economic Growth Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 14,018.79 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year[5] - Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4, with Q4 showing a 1.2% quarter-on-quarter increase[5] Industrial Performance - Industrial capacity utilization has been improving since Q2 2025, particularly in coal mining, electrical machinery, and automotive sectors[3] - December 2025 industrial production growth accelerated to 5.2% year-on-year, up from 4.8% in November[5] Investment and Consumption Trends - Investment and consumption growth slowed in December 2025, with investment showing a decline of -10.6% year-on-year[5] - However, high-frequency data indicates early signs of stabilization in investment, supported by new policy financial tools and increased special bond issuance[5] Export and Government Consumption - Exports are expected to be a key support for economic growth in Q1 2026, with net exports showing improvement[5] - Government consumption is also anticipated to play a significant role in boosting the economy, with recent policy measures aimed at promoting consumption[5] Real Estate Sector - Real estate investment saw a further decline to -17.2% year-on-year in December 2025, reflecting high base effects from the previous year[8] - Despite the current downturn, a gradual recovery in real estate investment is expected as the high base effect diminishes[8] Risks and Future Outlook - Potential risks include policy measures falling short of expectations and unexpected changes in domestic economic conditions[8] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to show a recovery in infrastructure investment, supported by a higher proportion of special bonds directed towards infrastructure projects[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for key companies in the semiconductor and storage sectors, including 拓荆科技, 中微公司, and 中芯国际 [3][4]. Core Insights - TSMC's aggressive capacity expansion reflects strong confidence, with a capital expenditure (Capex) guidance for 2026 reaching up to $56 billion, a 37% increase from 2025 [10][12]. - The AI sector is expected to grow significantly, with TSMC revising its AI processor revenue CAGR to a mid-high 50% [12][13]. - The demand for advanced packaging is high, with TSMC allocating 10%-20% of its 2026 Capex to this area, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [12][13]. - The storage market is experiencing price increases, with DRAM prices expected to rise by 40%-50% in Q1 2026 and an additional 20% in Q2 2026 [15][18]. - Micron's board member recently purchased shares worth approximately $7.8 million, indicating strong internal confidence in the company's future [18]. - The tight capacity and rising raw material costs are driving price increases in packaging services, with some companies raising prices by up to 30% [21][26]. Summary by Sections TSMC's Expansion and AI Growth - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.73 billion, a 25.5% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 62.3% [10][12]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, reflecting a 37.9% year-over-year growth [10][12]. Storage Market Trends - The storage market is projected to see significant price increases, with DRAM and NAND products expected to rise substantially in early 2026 [15][18]. - The demand for storage is driven by AI and server capacity needs, leading to a historical high in supplier bargaining power [15][18]. Packaging Price Increases - The packaging sector is experiencing price hikes due to increased demand and rising raw material costs, with some companies reporting utilization rates nearing full capacity [21][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [4] Core Insights - A new growth trend driven by the AI technology revolution is emerging, with significant development opportunities in areas such as domestic computing power, AI applications, commercial aerospace, and embodied intelligence [3][12] - The demand for domestic AI computing power remains a key focus, with specific companies recommended for attention, including Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Inspur Information, China Great Wall, and Loongson Technology [3][12] - The report highlights expected revenue or profit growth rates for key companies in 2025, with some companies projected to achieve over 30% year-on-year growth in net profit, such as Zhuoyi Information (yoy +150%) and Zhongke Information (yoy +40%) [12][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - During the week of January 12-16, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.57%, while the small and medium-sized board index rose by 1.55%, and the ChiNext index increased by 1.00%. The computer sector (CITIC) saw a rise of 4.31% [22] - The top five gainers in the sector included Shiji Information (+28.69%), Guangyun Technology (+28.43%), and Wanxing Technology (+19.64) [22][28] - The top five decliners were Aerospace Changfeng (-21.02%), Aerospace Information (-14.46%), and Haixia Innovation (-13.40%) [22][28] Industry News - The U.S. Department of Commerce has relaxed export restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chips to China, shifting to a case-by-case review mechanism, which marks a significant policy change [16] - Alibaba's Qianwen app has launched a "Task Assistant" feature, enabling AI agents to manage daily tasks across various services [17] - Zhiyuan AI has partnered with Huawei to open-source the GLM-Image model, marking a significant step in the domestic computing power ecosystem [15] Company News - Hanbang High-Tech is progressing with a major asset restructuring plan, intending to acquire a 51% stake in Anhui Yilu Micro-Travel Technology [18] - The report notes various shareholder actions, including share reduction plans by major stakeholders in companies like Anheng Information and Bosi Software, which are not expected to impact company governance [19][20]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Hotspot Trend ETF Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy identifies ETFs with upward trends in both highest and lowest prices, further selecting those with high short-term market attention based on turnover rates[28] - **Model Construction Process**: - Select ETFs where both the highest and lowest prices exhibit an upward trend - Construct a support-resistance factor based on the relative steepness of the 20-day regression coefficient of the highest and lowest prices - Choose the top 10 ETFs with the highest ratio of 5-day turnover rate to 20-day turnover rate from the long group of the factor - Build a risk parity portfolio using these ETFs[28] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy achieved a cumulative return of 52.22% since 2025, with an excess return of 28.36% over the CSI 300 Index[28] 2. Model Name: Three-Strategy Fusion ETF Rotation - **Model Construction Idea**: This model combines three industry rotation strategies—fundamental-driven, quality low-volatility, and distressed reversal—to achieve factor and style complementarity, reducing the risk of single-strategy dependence[31] - **Model Construction Process**: - Fundamental-driven strategy: Uses factors like unexpected prosperity, industry momentum, and inflation beta - Quality low-volatility strategy: Focuses on individual stock quality and low volatility - Distressed reversal strategy: Captures valuation recovery and performance reversal opportunities using factors like PB z-score and analyst long-term expectations - Combine the three strategies equally to form a diversified ETF rotation portfolio[31][32] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy achieved a cumulative return of 12.18% from April 10, 2017, to January 16, 2026, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.74[36] 3. Model Name: All-Weather Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy aims to achieve stable returns by avoiding reliance on predictions, using asset selection, risk adjustment, and structural hedging to smooth volatility[50] - **Model Construction Process**: - High-volatility version: Utilizes a four-layer structured risk parity approach across stocks, bonds, and gold - Low-volatility version: Employs a five-layer structured risk budgeting approach - Both versions are designed to bypass macroeconomic assumptions and achieve absolute returns without leverage[50][54][56] - **Model Evaluation**: - High-volatility version: Annualized return of 11.8%, maximum drawdown of 3.6%, and Sharpe ratio of 2.3 as of 2025 - Low-volatility version: Annualized return of 8.8%, maximum drawdown of 2.0%, and Sharpe ratio of 3.4 as of 2025[60][61] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Hotspot Trend ETF Strategy - Cumulative return since 2025: 52.22% - Excess return over CSI 300 Index: 28.36%[28] 2. Three-Strategy Fusion ETF Rotation - Cumulative return (2017.04.10–2026.01.16): 12.18% - Sharpe ratio: 0.74 - Annualized return (2025): 27.29% - Maximum drawdown (2025): 7.18%[36][37] 3. All-Weather Strategy - High-volatility version: - Annualized return (2025): 11.8% - Maximum drawdown (2025): 3.6% - Sharpe ratio (2025): 2.3 - Low-volatility version: - Annualized return (2025): 8.8% - Maximum drawdown (2025): 2.0% - Sharpe ratio (2025): 3.4[60][61] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Beta, Growth, and Momentum Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: These style factors capture market preferences for high-beta, high-growth, and high-momentum stocks[62] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Beta factor: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market returns - Growth factor: Evaluates the growth potential of a stock based on metrics like earnings growth - Momentum factor: Assesses the continuation of a stock's price trend over a specific period[62] - **Factor Evaluation**: - Beta factor: Weekly return of 3.33% - Growth factor: Weekly return of 1.97% - Momentum factor: Weekly return of 0.45%[62][66] 2. Factor Name: Volume Mean and Volume Standard Deviation Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: These alpha factors leverage trading volume trends over different time horizons to identify stocks with strong liquidity and trading activity[64] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Volume mean factors: Calculate the average trading volume over 1, 3, 6, and 12 months - Volume standard deviation factors: Measure the volatility of trading volume over the same time horizons - Normalize the factors by market capitalization and industry[64][67] - **Factor Evaluation**: - 1-month volume mean factor: Weekly excess return of 1.69% - 3-month volume mean factor: Weekly excess return of 1.66% - 6-month volume mean factor: Weekly excess return of 1.65%[67] 3. Factor Name: R&D to Assets and R&D to Sales Ratios - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors highlight the importance of research and development (R&D) in driving company performance, particularly in small-cap stocks[68] - **Factor Construction Process**: - R&D to assets ratio: Total R&D expenditure divided by total assets - R&D to sales ratio: Total R&D expenditure divided by total sales - Normalize the factors by market capitalization and industry[68] - **Factor Evaluation**: - R&D to assets ratio: Excess return of 35.64% in the CSI 800 Index - R&D to sales ratio: Excess return of 29.45% in the CSI 1000 Index[68] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Beta, Growth, and Momentum Factors - Beta factor: Weekly return of 3.33% - Growth factor: Weekly return of 1.97% - Momentum factor: Weekly return of 0.45%[62][66] 2. Volume Mean and Volume Standard Deviation Factors - 1-month volume mean factor: Weekly excess return of 1.69% - 3-month volume mean factor: Weekly excess return of 1.66% - 6-month volume mean factor: Weekly excess return of 1.65%[67] 3. R&D to Assets and R&D to Sales Ratios - R&D to assets ratio: Excess return of 35.64% in the CSI 800 Index - R&D to sales ratio: Excess return of 29.45% in the CSI 1000 Index[68]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the education industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [3]. Core Insights - The education industry is experiencing a "three-dimensional resonance" with policy improvements, supply clearing, and demand release, shifting the investment logic from policy-driven to performance-driven. The industry is expected to benefit from a "Davis Double Play" in terms of performance and valuation under policy support [7][26]. - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into education is highlighted as a key investment theme, with leading education companies likely to benefit from the "AI + Education" trend [7][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Policy Dynamics - On January 12, the Ministry of Education announced the approval of 14 new higher education institutions, including 7 public and 1 private vocational colleges [10][12]. - Guangdong plans to increase 200,000 ordinary high school seats by 2026 as part of its educational enhancement initiatives [10][12]. - Jiangsu's "AI + Education" action plan aims for over 70% penetration of new intelligent terminals by 2027 and a trillion-yuan industry scale by 2030 [10][12]. - The "China-UK Study Tour Pilot Program" was launched, facilitating deeper educational cooperation between the two countries [10][12]. 2. Company Dynamics - Zhonggong Education launched the "Zhonggong AI Interview" training product, enhancing its offerings in AI-driven education [13]. - Huatu Education held an "AI Transformation Upgrade Conference," marking its transition to an AI-driven growth model [13]. 3. Industry Performance - The education sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the CITIC Education Index increasing by 1.69% compared to a decline of 0.57% in the CSI 300 [7][15]. - The best-performing stocks in the education sector included Action Education (+9.65%), *ST Guohua (+7.99%), and Huatu Shanding (+4.73%) [19][20]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. "AI + Education" with companies like Kevin Education and Kede Education as potential leaders 2. Performance and valuation resonance with Action Education, Xueda Education, and Angli Education showing significant valuation advantages 3. Companies like Botong Co. and Huatu Shanding are actively seeking new growth avenues [26].