2025 年 12 月 06 日 新版行业清单出炉,基础设施 REITs EST FB ! 公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2025.12.1-2025.12.5） 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 REITs 即将迈入商业不 -公募 REITs 周度跟 踪 (2025.11.24-2025.11.28)》 2025/11/29 《市场承压回调，关注超跌品种的 -公募 REITs 周度跟踪 電空机 台 (2025.11.17-2025.11.21)》 2025/11/22 《指数修复，发改委支持民间项目 -公募 REITs 周度跟 发行 REITs- 踪 (2025.11.10-2025.11.14)》 2025/11/15 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yanqxf@swsresearch.com 城市更新设施、高端酒店等纳入基础设施 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that insurance companies have lowered risk factors for long-term holdings in the CSI 300, the China Securities Low Volatility 100, and the STAR Market, with state-owned insurance companies increasing their positions first, followed by the risk factor adjustments. This adjustment provides an additional incentive for other insurance companies to increase equity allocations, with a potential increase in equity investment space amounting to hundreds of billions under unchanged solvency ratios [4][5]. - The report highlights that the spring market's economic and industrial catalysts are not yet clear, and the supply-demand logic of funds may become the main contradiction. Expectations for the insurance "opening red" trading are rising, and high-dividend market trends may begin to emerge before early 2026 [4][5]. - The report suggests that the risk factor adjustments may encourage long-term capital to enter the market, particularly benefiting state-owned insurance companies that have already allocated a high proportion of new premiums to the market. The equity investment risk factor reduction is seen as a delayed policy optimization [5]. Group 2 - The report maintains that the spring market may be a small-scale market, with expectations of a rebound within a high-level oscillation for the overall market. For the oversold technology sector, it may transition into a phase of oscillation after sufficient adjustment [6]. - The mid-term judgment indicates a "two-stage bull market," with the technology structural bull market in 2025 at a high level, and subsequent adjustments may occur. A comprehensive bull market is expected in the second half of 2026 [6]. - The report anticipates that the first half of 2026 will see a "Bull Market 1.0" characterized by oscillation and a focus on cyclical and value styles, while the second half will transition to a "Bull Market 2.0" where technology and advanced manufacturing will dominate [8]. Group 3 - The report identifies potential triggers for the spring market, including the policy layout period starting in mid-December and the "two sessions" in 2026, which may activate policy and industrial themes [6]. - The report emphasizes that the spring market may serve as a foundation for cyclical assets, with a focus on basic chemicals and industrial technology as potential alpha sources. The insurance "opening red" may also highlight high-dividend opportunities [8]. - The report notes that the overall adjustment in technology may lead to a widespread rebound, with particular attention on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense, as well as opportunities in AI computing, storage, energy storage, and robotics [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, highlighting key investment opportunities in AI computing, embodied intelligence, and AI applications [3][4]. Core Insights - The computer sector has seen an 18% increase from early 2025 to December 2, 2025, ranking 12th among all industries, driven by fundamentals and thematic investments [3][4]. - The gap between Chinese and American large models is narrowing, with expectations for further convergence and potential surpassing in certain areas by 2026 [3][20]. - The importance of AI infrastructure is increasing, with a focus on software layers that are rapidly expanding in market size and penetration [3][4]. - The report identifies key companies benefiting from AI advancements, including 合合信息, which is positioned as a leader in intelligent text recognition [3][4]. Summary by Sections 2026 Computer Annual Strategy - The strategy emphasizes the aggregation of computing power and the rise of applications, with AI being the main theme for 2026 [3][4]. - The report notes a significant rebound in revenue and net profit for the computer sector in 2025, confirming a fundamental turning point [9][10]. Large Models - The report discusses the acceleration of monetization for large models in 2025, with a focus on AI programming and multi-modal applications [20][23]. - It highlights that domestic models are catching up in performance and cost-effectiveness compared to their international counterparts [20][23]. Computing Power - The trend towards supernodes is clear, with domestic computing power achieving overall performance improvements [3][4]. - Quantum computing is beginning to move towards commercialization, with several breakthroughs expected in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. Applications - The report indicates that industry know-how serves as a competitive moat, with software entering an optimal layout period [3][4]. - It predicts that many companies will see AI revenue exceed 10%, marking a technological revolution in the software industry [3][4]. Key Companies and Investment Targets - The report lists several companies as key investment targets, including 金山办公, 海康威视, and 浪潮信息, among others, across various segments such as AIGC and digital economy leaders [3][4].

研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 2025 年 12 月 06 日 新版行业清单出炉，基础设施 REITs 再扩围！ ——公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2025.12.1-2025.12.5） 相关研究 《里程碑！REITs 即将迈入商业不 动产新时代——公募 REITs 周度跟 踪（2025.11.24-2025.11.28）》 2025/11/29 《市场承压回调，关注超跌品种的 博弈机会——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2025.11.17-2025.11.21）》 2025/11/22 《指数修复，发改委支持民间项目 发行 REITs——公募 REITs 周度跟 踪（2025.11.10-2025.11.14）》 2025/11/15 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使 ...

Report Title - In the Era of Multi - asset Investments, Riding the Waves: Outlook for the Public Offering FOF Business and Product Layout in 2026 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since Q4 2024, the overall scale of public offering FOFs has rebounded, reaching a new high since Q4 2022, mainly due to China Merchants Bank's "Long - term Prosperity Plan" and the increasing market recognition of multi - asset allocation for achieving fixed - income plus returns after the rapid decline in interest rates [10]. - Multi - asset low - volatility FOFs face issues such as potential overcrowding, reliance on the performance of gold and US stocks, and the need to build competitiveness through further asset diversification, strategy specialization, and product differentiation [49][54]. - High - volatility FOFs have a natural advantage in the personal pension Y - share market, and in the new regulatory environment, they can evolve in directions such as building low - volatility products under the same benchmark and making style - based asset allocations [103][114] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Public Offering FOF Industry Status - **Scale and Product Trends**: After years of overall decline, the scale of public offering FOFs started to rebound in Q4 2024, with positive net inflows for three consecutive quarters. The "Long - term Prosperity Plan" of China Merchants Bank brought about a scale of approximately 60 billion yuan, driving the development of the FOF industry. Most FOFs with large scale growth and initial issuance in 2025 belong to the "Long - term Prosperity Plan", mainly bond FOFs or fixed - income plus FOFs [10][12]. - **Asset Allocation**: Multi - asset allocation has become a common choice for FOFs. In Q3 2025, leading fund managers generally increased their allocation to QDII, mutual - recognition funds, and commodities while maintaining their allocation to active equity, fixed - income plus, and pure - bond funds [17]. - **Personal Pension Y - share**: In Q3, the scale of personal pension funds reached 12.817 billion yuan, a significant increase from Q2 2025. Pension target - date funds are more popular, and high - equity - position products in personal pension accounts are more favored. The scale of equity - type and 2050 - series FOFs increased significantly [28][32] 3.2 Next Evolution Direction of Multi - asset Investments - **Asset - side**: To overcome the "reliance on gold and US stocks", multi - asset FOFs should further diversify and increase sources of returns. Public REITs can be considered as a substitute for bonds, and commodity - type funds such as non - ferrous metal futures, chemical futures, and soybean meal futures can enhance the diversification effect of FOFs [56][64]. - **Strategy - side**: The ability to be familiar with alternative assets can be a competitive barrier for multi - asset investment. Multi - asset allocation frameworks can be labeled, transparent, and tool - based. The deployment of various assets under a stable allocation framework tests the tactical ability of fund managers, and the deployment models can be macro - driven, risk - driven, or value - driven [69][82] - **Multi - asset + Multi - strategy**: If bond yields remain low in the long term, multi - asset low - volatility FOFs can reduce bond allocation and adopt a multi - asset + multi - strategy model. By strategizing single assets and combining them with a risk - parity weighting, a quasi - absolute - return strategy can be formed [92] 3.3 Future of High - volatility FOFs - **Natural Battlefield - Personal Pension Y - share**: High - volatility FOFs are more popular in the personal pension Y - share market. The "search for lower points" model can be adopted in the Y - share business to promote the development of the third pillar of pensions [103]. - **Friendly Environment from High - quality Public Offering Development**: The high - quality development of the public offering industry provides a more favorable environment for FOFs. Due to their low - volatility characteristics, FOFs can offer better returns to investors [109]. - **Evolution Direction in the New Regulatory Environment**: In the new regulatory era with clear performance benchmarks, high - volatility FOFs can build low - volatility products under the same benchmark, improve the holding experience, and make style - based asset allocations to adapt to different market conditions [114][117]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 0.79 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.96 billion for FY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, while net profit decreased by 36.9% to RMB 390 million. Adjusted net profit, excluding certain impairments, increased by 6.5% to RMB 740 million, aligning with expectations [3][4]. - The company has optimized its school count and strengthened headquarters management, which is expected to lead to a recovery in profit margins. The average tuition fee increased by 6% to RMB 13,600 per academic year [4][6]. - The company sold eight low-efficiency school assets from FY24 to FY25, aiming to enhance operational efficiency by reducing the number of schools and increasing the proportion of undergraduate students [5][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For FY25, the company’s revenue is projected at RMB 3.96 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 738 million. The adjusted net profit is expected to grow to RMB 764 million in FY26 and RMB 812 million in FY27 [7][10]. - The gross margin for FY25 is reported at 42.1%, slightly lower than the previous year, but operational efficiency is anticipated to improve moving forward [4][6]. - The company’s student enrollment for FY25 is 291,000, with a stable student structure, where undergraduate students account for 48% and vocational students for 3% [4][5].

Group 1: High Growth Portfolio Construction - The high growth profit stock pool is selected from the top 80% of stocks by market capitalization and average daily trading volume, excluding those with negative net profit from the previous year, and then selecting the top 50% based on analyst consensus profit growth expectations[6] - During the backtesting period from August 31, 2011, to October 31, 2025, the average number of stocks in the high growth profit stock pool was 571[11] - The high growth profit portfolio achieved an annualized return of 13.32% compared to the CSI 500 total return index's 7.31% during the same period, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.50[13] Group 2: Performance Attribution and Comparison - The median profit growth rate of the high growth profit portfolio was 99% during the period from April 27, 2012, to October 31, 2024, significantly higher than the median profit growth rate of 36.86% for the stock pool[29] - The high growth profit portfolio consistently ranked in the top two deciles of market profit growth during the same period, indicating strong performance relative to the market[32] - The portfolio's performance was primarily driven by growth and analyst factors, aligning with the portfolio construction logic[23] Group 3: Factor Analysis and Selection Methodology - The analysis identified that the analyst factor, growth factor, and profitability factor had significant predictive power for annual profit growth, with average RankIC values of 37.81%, 30.22%, and 33.46% respectively[41] - The sequential selection of factors in constructing the portfolio outperformed parallel selection methods, with the sequential method winning in 9 out of 14 years from 2012 to 2025[59] - The high growth profit portfolio's average market capitalization during the backtesting period was 15.8 billion yuan, indicating it is a mid-cap growth portfolio[20]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. [2][7] Core Views - The company has established an integrated layout across the entire new energy industry chain, enhancing the flexibility of its cobalt and lithium businesses [6][7] - The report forecasts significant profit growth driven by the company's nickel, cobalt, and lithium projects, with expected net profits of 57.91 billion, 101.08 billion, and 156.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [5][7] Summary by Sections 1. Integrated Layout Progress - Huayou Cobalt has developed a comprehensive industry chain from resource development to recycling, evolving from primary product processing to upstream resource expansion and integrated layout [17][18] 2. Nickel: Continuous Expansion of Wet Process Capacity - The company has established a significant presence in the Indonesian nickel industry, with a current capacity of 245,000 tons and plans for further expansion [60][67] - The wet process nickel production has a cost advantage over traditional methods, allowing the company to maintain profitability even during price downturns [62][66] 3. Cobalt: Supply Control and Price Increase - The report highlights the impact of the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) export control policies on cobalt prices, which are expected to rise due to reduced supply [6][7] - The company benefits from diversified cobalt sources, mitigating supply chain risks [6][7] 4. Lithium: Improving Supply and Cost Optimization - Huayou Cobalt is developing a lithium sulfate project in Zimbabwe, which is expected to significantly increase lithium recovery rates and reduce costs [6][7] - The anticipated rise in lithium prices due to growing demand in energy storage applications is expected to enhance profitability [6][7] 5. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company reported total revenue of 60.95 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected increase to 106.3 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][6] - The report indicates a significant increase in net profit margins, driven by strategic product focus and cost management [31][33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.96 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.1%. However, net profit decreased by 36.9% to 390 million RMB. Adjusted net profit, excluding goodwill impairment and convertible bond disposal costs, was 740 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 6.5% [5] - The company has optimized its school count and strengthened headquarters management, which is expected to lead to a recovery in profit margins. The number of enrolled students remained stable at 291,000, with a slight increase of 0.1% compared to the previous fiscal year [5][6] - The average tuition fee increased by 6% to 13,600 RMB per academic year. The company effectively controlled cost growth, with main operating costs rising by 6.2% to 2.29 billion RMB, slightly above the revenue growth rate [5][6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company expects adjusted profits for fiscal year 2026 to be 760 million RMB, down from an earlier forecast of 1.27 billion RMB. Adjusted profits for fiscal years 2027 and 2028 are projected to be 810 million RMB and 880 million RMB, respectively [7][8] - The financial data shows a steady increase in revenue and adjusted net profit over the forecast period, with revenue expected to reach 4.55 billion RMB by fiscal year 2028 [8][11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong high dividend index has a dividend yield of 5.63%, significantly higher than the average yield of 2.96% from 10-year Chinese and U.S. government bonds, indicating strong investment value[11] - The Hong Kong dividend sector is approximately 5-6% cheaper than the overall A-share market after considering a 20% dividend tax[12] - From October 2 to December 1, the high dividend index outperformed the market, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect China Central Enterprise Dividend Index rising by 7.62%[3] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The banking sector is expected to enter a stable profit cycle, with a potential reversal of the downward trend in interest margins by 2026[4] - In the transportation sector, the road freight volume growth improved quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with key companies like Sichuan Chengyu H, Zhejiang Hu-Hangzhou-Ningbo, and Ninghu Expressway showing promise[3] - Coal companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy are projected to have dividend yields of 4.7% and 4.44%, respectively, with Yancoal Australia potentially improving its yield to 7.65%[4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The utility sector is benefiting from cost reductions and expected capacity price increases in 2026, with Huaneng International Power and China Resources Power forecasted to have dividend yields of 6.65% and 5.73%[4] - Real estate companies such as Hang Lung Properties, Swire Properties, and Kerry Properties are projected to yield 7.20%, 5.99%, and 6.53%, respectively, due to the recovery of the Hong Kong economy[4] - Environmental companies like China Everbright Water are expected to have a dividend yield of 8.14%, highlighting opportunities in the sector[4]