非银金融 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 联系人 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 险资入市再迎"强心针"，A 股险企 潜在股票增配空间达 789 亿元 金管局再次调降险资股票投资风险因子，为险资入市注入新的"强心针"。周五 盘后，金管局发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》（简称"《通 知》"），明确：1）险资持仓时间超过三年的沪深 300 指数成分股、中证红利低 波动 100 指数成分股的风险因子从 0.3 下调至 0.27，持仓时间根据过去 6 年加 权平均持仓时间确定。2）险资持仓时间超过两年的科创板上市普通股的风险因 子从 0.4 下调至 0.36，持仓时间根据过去 4 年加权平均持仓时间确定。3）保险 公司出口信用保险业务和中国出口信用保险公司海外投资保险业务的保费风险 因子从 0.467 下调至 ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies' investments, specifically the reduction of risk factors for stocks held for over three years in the CSI 300 and the low-volatility dividend index from 0.3 to 0.27, and for stocks held for over two years in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board from 0.4 to 0.36 [3][4][17] - The adjustment is seen as a marginal impact, with the potential for a significant increase in equity allocation by insurance funds in the long term [17][21] Quantitative Assessment of Risk Factor Adjustment - The report provides three scenarios for the proportion of stocks held for over three years in the CSI 300 and low-volatility dividend index: current situation at 13.0%, mid-term neutral at 42.1%, and optimistic at 50.3% [7][15] - For stocks held for over two years in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, the current situation is at 0.6%, mid-term neutral at 1.9%, and optimistic at 2.9% [7][15] - The minimum capital released from the risk factor adjustment is estimated at 141 billion, 457 billion, and 554 billion under the three scenarios, respectively, with potential increases in stock investment of 514 billion, 1669 billion, and 2015 billion [15][17] Encouragement of Long-term Capital Market Entry - The adjustment is viewed as a supportive policy for encouraging long-term capital entry into the market, particularly for state-owned insurance companies that have already increased their equity investment ratios [17][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing the equity allocation ratio of insurance funds as the main source of potential market entry space, estimating a potential increase of 32,431 billion if the equity and fund investment ratio reaches the regulatory cap of 30% [17][20] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The report notes that the spring market's economic and industrial catalysts are yet to be clarified, with supply-demand logic becoming a primary concern [21] - The adjustment of risk factors may lead to a favorable environment for insurance companies to engage in high-dividend stock investments while maintaining a focus on cost-effectiveness [21]

Group 1: AI Impact on Employment - AI adoption in the U.S. has increased from 3.7% to 10% in two years, with significant impacts on high-exposure industries and young workers[1] - The number of layoffs in October 2025 reached 153,000, a 175% increase year-on-year, with 21.7% of layoffs occurring in the tech sector[1] - Despite concerns, AI is not the primary cause of the employment downturn; the correlation between AI adoption and employment growth is weak (R²=0.09)[2] Group 2: Employment Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market has experienced a "low recruitment, low layoffs" state, with non-farm employment numbers showing a significant decline since early 2025[3] - Illegal immigration net inflow decreased by 1.6 to 2 million in 2025, explaining about 50% of the employment slowdown[3] - Government layoffs and tariff impacts contributed to 37% of the employment decline, while the influence of AI on white-collar jobs was only 7.6%[3] Group 3: Future Outlook - In 2026, the labor supply may continue to contract while demand stabilizes, maintaining a low equilibrium in employment levels[4] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slowly, with a risk of triggering the "Sam Rule" at around 4.7%[4] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing monetary policy amid a "K-shaped" economic recovery, where labor shortages could enhance labor share while surpluses may lead to economic divergence[4]

Core Insights - The report discusses the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies' investments, specifically the reduction of risk factors for stocks held for over three years in the CSI 300 and the low-volatility 100 index from 0.3 to 0.27, and for stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board held for over two years from 0.4 to 0.36 [4][17][21] - The adjustment is seen as a marginal impact, with the potential for a significant increase in equity allocation by insurance funds in the long term [21][26] Quantitative Assessment of Risk Factor Adjustment Impact - The report presents three scenarios for the proportion of stocks held for over three years in the CSI 300 and low-volatility 100: current situation at 13.0%, mid-term neutral at 42.1%, and mid-term optimistic at 50.3% [9][19] - For stocks held for over two years in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, the current situation is at 0.6%, mid-term neutral at 1.9%, and mid-term optimistic at 2.9% [9][19] - The minimum capital released due to the risk factor adjustment is estimated at 141 billion, 457 billion, and 554 billion under the three scenarios, respectively, with potential increases in stock investment of 514 billion, 1669 billion, and 2015 billion [17][19][21] Insurance Fund Allocation Trends - As of Q3 2025, insurance companies' investment in stocks and funds exceeded 15%, nearing a new high since 2015, but still below the regulatory cap of 30% [21][22] - If the allocation to stocks and funds were to increase to the 30% cap, an additional 32,431 billion could be invested in stocks [25][21] - The report emphasizes that the increase in equity allocation by insurance companies is a gradual process, with significant potential for future growth [21][26] Policy Implications - The adjustment of risk factors is viewed as a supportive policy for encouraging long-term capital market participation, particularly for state-owned insurance companies that have already increased their equity allocation [21][26] - The report suggests that the adjustment will provide additional incentives for other insurance companies to increase their equity investments [21][26] - The overall impact of the risk factor adjustment is considered marginal compared to the potential for long-term increases in equity allocation by insurance funds [21][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights the expansion of REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) projects, which is expected to support the revitalization of existing assets [4]. - The construction industry experienced a slight decline of -0.07% last week, underperforming compared to major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (+0.37%) and the CSI 300 Index (+1.28%) [5][4]. - Key sectors showing positive performance include international engineering (+2.08%), central state-owned enterprises (+2.05%), and professional engineering (+0.47%) [4][7]. - The report emphasizes that investment opportunities are anticipated in emerging sectors as national strategic initiatives are implemented, particularly in the central and western regions [4]. Industry Performance - The construction industry saw a weekly decline of -0.07%, lagging behind the performance of major indices [5][4]. - The best-performing sub-sectors for the week were international engineering (+2.08%), central state-owned enterprises (+2.05%), and professional engineering (+0.47%) [4][7]. - Year-to-date, the highest gains were observed in private infrastructure (+59.52%), ecological landscaping (+52.35%), and decorative curtain walls (+45.77%) [4][7]. Key Company Developments - China Aluminum International won a joint bid for a new electrolytic aluminum project with a total value of 3.03 billion yuan, representing 31.24% of its projected 2024 revenue [14]. - Dongzhu Ecology secured a bid for an environmental project valued at 397 million yuan, which exceeds its projected 2024 revenue by 105.59% [14]. - The report notes significant contract wins for several companies, including China Railway and China Communications Construction Company, indicating robust activity in the sector [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the equity and convertible bond markets were weak first and then strong. Due to the relatively weak performance of the underlying stocks, the valuation in the high - parity area rose against the trend to support the convertible bond price, and the median convertible bond price remained stable above 130 yuan. The convertible bonds showed strong resistance to decline during the equity market's volatile period, and the good supply - demand pattern still strongly supported the valuation. The convertible bond market still has overall opportunities, but in terms of structure, risks such as the decay of the time value of short - duration convertible bonds and unexpected forced redemptions should be guarded against [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Viewpoint and Outlook - The equity and convertible bond markets were weak first and then strong this week. The high - parity area valuation supported the convertible bond price. The convertible bonds had strong anti - decline ability, and the supply - demand pattern supported the valuation. Pay attention to the decline in the valuation of debt - oriented convertible bonds and the potential impact of forced redemptions. The equity market outlook is optimistic, but risks in convertible bonds need to be guarded against [1][5] 2. Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the underlying stocks performed weakly, while the convertible bond valuation rebounded against the trend, with the 100 - yuan premium rate rising by 0.5% week - on - week to 29.9%. The current quantile level is at the 99.4% percentile since 2017. The valuation performance in the equity - oriented area was better than that in the debt - oriented area. The conversion premium rate in the 130 - 140 yuan parity range increased significantly, and that in the 100 - 120 yuan parity range also increased slightly. In the debt - oriented area, the conversion premium rate and the bottom - support premium rate in the 80 - 100 yuan parity range mainly declined. The median convertible bond price and the yield to maturity were reported at 131.61 yuan and - 6.56% respectively, with changes of + 0.51 yuan and - 0.01% from last week. Their current quantile levels are at the 98.10 and 1.30 percentiles since 2017 [4][6][10] 3. Terms Tracking 3.1 Redemption - This week, Nenghui, Xinhua, and Limin Convertible Bonds announced redemptions, and 3 convertible bonds announced non - redemptions, with a forced - redemption rate of 50%. Currently, there are 19 convertible bonds that have issued forced - redemption or maturity - redemption announcements but have not delisted. The potential conversion or maturity balance of these convertible bonds is 5.2 billion yuan. There are currently 31 convertible bonds in the redemption process. Next week, 7 are expected to meet the redemption conditions, and 9 are expected to issue announcements of potential redemption triggers. In addition, 12 convertible bonds are expected to enter the forced - redemption counting period within the next month [4][21][24] 3.2 Downward Revision - No convertible bond proposed a downward revision this week. As of now, 100 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 20 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 39 are accumulating days for downward revision, and 2 have issued board - of - directors' proposals for downward revision but have not yet held a general shareholders' meeting [4][27] 3.3 Put Option (Back Sale) - This week, Leger Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option (back - sale) announcement. As of now, 6 convertible bonds are accumulating days to trigger the put - option condition. Among them, 1 proposed a downward revision, 1 is accumulating days for downward revision, and 4 are in the non - downward - revision period [4][30] 4. Primary Issuance - This week, Puxun Convertible Bond was issued. Maolai, Ruike, and Puxun Convertible Bonds have been issued but are pending listing. As of now, there are 8 convertible bonds in the approval - for - registration process, with a pending issuance scale of 7.1 billion yuan, and 8 in the listing - committee - approval process, with a pending issuance scale of 9.8 billion yuan [4][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for quality companies in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the liquor segment [4][9]. Core Insights - The report indicates that major liquor companies have experienced significant revenue declines year-on-year, with high-end liquor prices continuing to drop as the market seeks a balance between volume and price. It anticipates a double-digit decline in sales for Q1 2026, with a potential stabilization in Q2 and a fundamental turnaround in Q3 2026 as inventory clears and demand recovers [4][9]. - The report highlights that if the fundamentals improve as expected, the end of 2026 to 2027 could see a dual boost in valuation and performance for quality companies, marking a strategic allocation period for long-term investors [4][9]. - The report emphasizes a systemic opportunity in mass consumer goods, with a focus on CPI as a core observation indicator. It predicts a gradual improvement in food CPI throughout the year, driven by structural demand improvements and a shift in competitive strategies from price to quality [4][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Perspective on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.90% last week, with liquor down 2.59%, underperforming the market by 2.27 percentage points. The top gainers included companies like Anji Food and Haixin Food, while the biggest losers were ST Yanshan and Yantang Dairy [8]. 2. Market Performance by Sector - The report notes that the average price of Moutai has dropped to 1545 RMB per bottle, a decrease of 25 RMB week-on-week, while the price for Wuliangye remains stable at approximately 825 RMB. The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to increased shipments by distributors to meet annual targets amid weak seasonal demand [10][12]. 3. Industry Matters - The report suggests focusing on the restaurant supply chain, particularly in condiments and frozen foods, with recommendations for companies like Anji Food and Qianhe Flavoring. It anticipates continued improvement in operational performance for these companies as the restaurant sector recovers [11][12]. 4. Valuation Table - As of December 5, 2025, the food and beverage sector has a dynamic PE of 20.19x, with a premium rate of 24%, while the liquor segment has a dynamic PE of 18.87x, with a premium rate of 16% [32].

Group 1: Strategic Overview - China is transitioning from a global rule adapter to a co-builder and responsible stakeholder in international governance[3] - The 14th Five-Year Plan (14th FYP) focused on economic security, while the 15th Five-Year Plan (15th FYP) emphasizes "development and security" across all sectors[3] - The 15th FYP identifies emerging industries as "pillar industries," focusing on new energy and new materials, with a core strategy of cluster development and large-scale application[3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The 15th FYP highlights ten key investment areas: 1) Artificial Intelligence, 2) Robotics, 3) Aerospace, 4) Drones/Low-altitude Economy, 5) Strategic Resource Metals, 6) Shipping, 7) Controlled Nuclear Fusion, 8) Energy Storage, 9) Brain-Machine Interfaces, 10) Innovative Pharmaceuticals[3] - The Chinese robotics industry is transitioning from product definition to commercialization, with AI expected to empower various sectors by 2026[3] - The aerospace industry is a key focus, with the establishment of a new space administration and a three-year action plan for commercial aerospace development[3] Group 3: Economic and Security Considerations - The 15th FYP emphasizes the strategic importance of national defense and security, with a focus on political security as a priority[3] - The plan includes new initiatives for the development and reserve of strategic mineral resources, enhancing the national security framework[3] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and slower-than-expected industry capacity adjustments, influenced by international geopolitical changes[3]

2025 年 12 月 06 日 相关研究 《AI Infra：重点关注数据层软件及 MaaS——计算机行业周报 20251124- 20251128》 2025/11/29 《谷歌大模型超预期了吗? 国内 AI 2026 年策略! 华为容器热点! ——计算机行业 周报 20251117-20251121 》 2025/11/22 证券分析师 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资后了 2026 计算机年度策略：算力聚沙成塔，应用乘风而起。 ● 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 刘洋 A0230513050006 liuyang2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 崔航 A0230524080005 cuihang@swsresearch.com 徐平平 A0230525080002 xupp@swsresearch.com 曹峥 A0230525040002 caozheng@swsresearch.com 陈晴华 A0230525100001 chenqh@swsres ...

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