1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, the broad deficit scale reached 14.36 trillion yuan, a more than 40% increase from 2023. Despite potential pressure on banks' liability sides from government bond supply, the combination of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy has limited the upward movement of bond and certificate of deposit (CD) yields. CDs also face other disturbances, and it's not easy for their yields to remain stable [4][18]. - The short - term trend of CD issuance this year is mainly driven by demand and cost considerations. Next year may see a return to normalcy, but the proportion of 9M and 1Y CD issuance may still be lower than in 2024 [4]. - The year - end CD rally, usually a reflection of the expected decline in the coming year, may be weakened this year. In 2026, the continuation of broad fiscal expansion will still pressure CDs, and the effectiveness of policies like interest rate cuts on CDs is uncertain [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This week (11.24 - 11.28) the bond market adjusted - Bond market adjustment: The bond market adjusted this week, with a slight recovery on Friday. Factors included concerns about the central bank's bond - buying scale in November, the boost to the stock market from the China - US presidential call, concerns about the new public fund fee regulations, and the impact of real - estate bond extensions. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 had significant adjustment pressure on Wednesday and Thursday, and recovered slightly on Friday [7]. - Stable funds during the month - end week: Despite being a month - end week, funds remained stable. DR001 stayed between 1.3% - 1.33% for five consecutive days, and the average DR001 in November was 1.37%, higher than in October but lower than in September [7]. - Narrow - range fluctuation of CD yields: The 1Y AAA CD yield fluctuated within 1 bp this week, ranging from 1.635% - 1.645%, and closed at 1.64% on Friday, up 0.5 bps from last Friday. The driving force mainly came from joint - stock banks, possibly due to the pressure on their NSFR indicators [8]. 3.2 Hot issues in CDs 3.2.1 CDs are in a stalemate of "unable to rise and unable to fall", and it's not easy for them not to rise - Low - volatility oscillation: Since August, CD yields have shown low - volatility oscillation. After the central bank's bond - buying announcement in late October, the impact on CDs was short - lived, and then they entered a new platform for oscillation [17]. - Impact of fiscal expansion: Globally, countries have entered a fiscal expansion cycle. In China, the broad deficit scale in 2025 increased significantly. Although it theoretically pressures banks' liability sides, the central bank's liquidity injection has limited the upward movement of yields. CDs also face other disturbances such as foreign investors' reduction and the activation of funds [4][18]. - Central bank's support: Twice this year, when the 1Y AAA CD yield approached or exceeded 1.7%, the central bank provided support. Also, the relationship between CD yields and MLF operating rates may have reversed after the MLF tender reform [19]. 3.2.2 The short - term trend of CD issuance this year is mainly driven by demand and cost considerations - Demand factor: Since the implementation of interest - rate pricing self - regulation for inter - bank deposits in late November 2024, money market funds have shifted their demand from inter - bank deposits to CDs. To reduce the risk of negative deviation under shadow pricing, money market funds have shortened their CD holding durations and increased their demand for short - term CDs [27]. - Cost factor: In the first quarter of this year, banks issued a large number of short - term CDs to overcome high - cost difficulties. Since the second quarter, the friendly liquidity environment has allowed banks to "roll - issue" short - term CDs to reduce comprehensive costs. Next year may see a return to normalcy, but the proportion of 9M and 1Y CD issuance may still be lower than in 2024 [30]. 3.2.3 The year - end CD rally, usually a reflection of the expected decline in the coming year, may be weakened this year - Weakened bond market rally: In the bond market, factors such as the uncertainty of public bond fund redemption fees, the weakening expectation of interest rate cuts, the low attractiveness of bonds compared to stocks, and concerns about future market changes have weakened the year - end rally [34]. - Weakened CD rally: In 2026, the continuation of broad fiscal expansion will pressure CDs. Although policies like interest rate cuts may be implemented, their impact on CDs is uncertain. The year - end CD rally may be weakened, and the benchmark assumption is that CD yields will remain above 1.6%, with further decline requiring unexpected factors. Attention should be paid to the December Politburo meeting and the subsequent Central Economic Work Conference [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for high-quality companies in the food and beverage sector, indicating that it has entered a strategic allocation period [6][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in revenue for major liquor companies, with high-end liquor prices continuing to drop, leading to a search for a balance between volume and price [6][7]. - It emphasizes the need for patience regarding fundamentals and notes that the performance of individual stocks will vary during this adjustment phase [6][8]. - The report anticipates that stock price returns will primarily come from valuation contributions in the upcoming year, suggesting reasonable expectations for price movements [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview of Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of 0.07% last week, with the liquor segment declining by 0.73%, underperforming the broader market by 1.33 percentage points [5]. - The top gainers included Hai Xin Food (up 45.38%), Jia Long Co. (up 16.29%), and Yan Tang Dairy (up 15.25%) [5]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Segments - The report provides detailed pricing data for major liquor brands, noting that Moutai's bottle price is 1570 RMB, down 80 RMB week-on-week, and Wuliangye's price is approximately 825 RMB, down 5 RMB [7][25]. - It discusses the strategic direction of Moutai, focusing on quality over quantity and maintaining stable cash dividend policies [7]. 3. Industry Indicators and Future Outlook - The report predicts a gradual improvement in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2026, which could lead to a recovery for companies with pricing power in various sub-sectors [8]. - It recommends focusing on sectors such as seasoning, frozen foods, and dairy, highlighting companies like Anjiu Food, Qianhe Flavor, and Yili Group as key players [8]. 4. Valuation Levels - As of November 28, the food and beverage sector has a dynamic PE of 20.59x, with a premium rate of 28%, while the liquor segment has a dynamic PE of 19.35x, with a premium rate of 20% [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, recommending stocks such as Dongfang Securities, GF Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Galaxy [4][3][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the brokerage sector is expected to benefit directly from the increased attractiveness of the equity market, particularly in wealth management and asset management businesses [4][3]. - The insurance sector is anticipated to undergo a systematic value reassessment in 2026, driven by rising long-term interest rates and continued investment from insurance funds [4][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4,526.66 with a weekly increase of 1.64%, while the non-bank index rose to 1,932.15, up 0.68% [7][4]. - The brokerage sector index increased by 0.74%, while the insurance sector index saw a rise of 0.20% [7][4]. Key Data Points - As of November 28, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 19,147.38 billion [18][46]. - The financing balance in margin trading reached 24,720.45 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.6% [18][49]. - The insurance industry reported a total premium income growth, with significant contributions from new business value (NBV) [4][3]. Individual Stock Highlights - In the insurance sector, notable A-share performances included China Life (0.09%) and New China Life (0.41%), while AIA Group in H-shares saw a significant increase of 4.95% [9][4]. - Among brokerages, Guosheng Securities led with a weekly increase of 3.68%, followed by Industrial Securities (3.36%) and Northeast Securities (2.45%) [9][4]. Regulatory and Market Developments - The report notes the expansion of the pilot program for optimizing brokerage account management, which now includes 20 qualified brokerages [21][4]. - The private equity fund sector reached a record high of 22.05 trillion, with a notable increase in new registrations [19][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting that the demand during the peak season remains resilient, and coal prices are expected to rise after adjustments [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the supply side is constrained due to increased safety and environmental inspections, while demand is bolstered by winter heating needs, leading to an anticipated rebound in coal prices [2][8]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with elastic demand for thermal coal, such as Jinkong Coal Industry, Huayang Co., and TBEA, as well as undervalued stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal and Huaibei Mining [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The 2026 National Coal Trading Conference is scheduled for December 3-5 in Rizhao, Shandong [7]. - The Longwanggou Coal Mine's capacity replacement plan has been approved, marking a significant development in coal production capacity [7]. - Shanxi has established 281 green mines, enhancing the province's coal production capabilities [7]. 2. Price Trends of Thermal and Coking Coal - As of November 28, thermal coal prices have decreased slightly, with prices reported at 619, 713, and 816 RMB/ton for different grades [2]. - Coking coal prices have shown stability with minor declines, such as the price for low-sulfur coking coal at 1580 RMB/ton [2][11]. 3. International Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil futures settled at 63.2 USD/barrel, reflecting a 1.02% increase [14]. 4. Inventory Levels in the Bohai Rim - The average daily coal inflow in the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 2.0511 million tons, while the outflow increased to 1.9854 million tons, indicating a supply-demand adjustment [18]. - The total coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports rose to 26.671 million tons, marking a 2.65% increase [18]. 5. Coastal Shipping Rates - Domestic coastal shipping rates have decreased to 42.62 RMB/ton, a drop of 9.84% [27]. - International shipping rates have seen an increase, with Indonesian coal prices rising to 10.36 USD/ton [27]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating stock prices and market capitalizations, such as China Shenhua at 41.14 RMB with a market cap of 817.4 billion RMB [33].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The company is a leading supplier in the intake system sector, with a diversified layout in PEEK materials, opening new growth avenues [6][20] - The company has a strong historical performance in the intake system and is expanding into new business areas such as thermal management systems and intelligent instruments [6][15] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by its automotive and motorcycle segments, with a projected revenue of 1.05 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 21.5% [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 865 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.2% [6] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is 152 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.2% [6][7] - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 30% and a net profit margin of around 15% [6][28] Business Overview - The company has established itself as a key player in the intake system market, with a market space of nearly 5 billion yuan in 2024 for automotive and motorcycle intake systems [6][48] - The company has a stable market share of 16.3% in the overall intake system market, with a significant presence in the motorcycle segment [49][50] - The company is actively expanding its product offerings to include lightweight materials and automotive interior components, enhancing its competitive edge [6][20] PEEK Business Potential - PEEK is identified as a high-potential material with applications in high-end manufacturing, particularly in humanoid robots, where its properties offer advantages over metals [6][22] - The company has formed a joint venture to enhance its capabilities in PEEK materials, positioning itself favorably in the market [6][22] Valuation and Market Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.52 billion yuan by 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 68x [7][8] - The target market capitalization for 2026 is estimated at 12.6 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 22% from current levels [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, rating it as "看好" (Overweight) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of seasonal demand for coal, suggesting that coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound [2] - It notes that while there has been a decrease in the prices of thermal coal, the demand from power plants remains strong due to cold weather [2] - The report emphasizes the impact of regulatory inspections on coal production, which is expected to limit overall output [2] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The 2026 National Coal Trading Conference is scheduled for December 3-5 in Rizhao, Shandong [8] - A significant coal mine in Inner Mongolia has received approval for a capacity replacement plan, enhancing production capabilities [8] - Shanxi province has established 281 green mines, contributing to sustainable coal production [8] Price Trends of Coal - As of November 28, thermal coal prices have decreased slightly, with specific prices reported for various grades [9] - The report indicates that the price index for thermal coal remains stable, with some fluctuations noted [9][10] - Coking coal prices are also showing a mixed trend, with some prices decreasing while others remain stable [12] Inventory and Supply Chain Dynamics - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports has decreased, while outflow has increased, indicating a shift in supply dynamics [20] - Coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports has risen, reflecting changes in demand and supply [20] Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have decreased, while international shipping rates have seen an increase [30] Company Valuation - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings projections [34]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report indicates that the food and beverage sector is entering a strategic allocation period, particularly for high-quality companies, as the market is expected to reach a predictable bottom in the near future [2][6][8] - Key recommendations for the liquor sector include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, while for consumer goods, the focus is on Yili, Qingdao Beer, Anjui Food, Qianhe Flavor Industry, Tianwei Food, and New Dairy [2][6][8] Group 2: Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of 0.07% last week, with the liquor segment declining by 0.73%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.33 percentage points [5] - Moutai's bottle price is reported at 1570 RMB, down 80 RMB week-on-week, while the box price is 1580 RMB, down 85 RMB [7][30] Group 3: Industry Trends - The report highlights that the high-end liquor prices are declining, indicating a search for balance between volume and price in the market [6][7] - For the consumer goods sector, the core observation for 2026 is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to improve gradually, leading to potential recovery for companies with pricing power [8][31] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - As of November 28, 2025, the food and beverage sector has a dynamic PE of 20.59x, with a premium rate of 28%, while the liquor sector has a dynamic PE of 19.35x, with a premium rate of 20% [31]

2025 年 11 月 30 日 如何理解存单"利率刚性化+期限短 期化" 相关研究 - 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 研究支持 杨琳琳 A0230124120001 yangll@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨琳琳 A0230124120001 yangll@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 周 评 ⚫ 存单在"上不去"和"下不来"的僵持之中，没有上去可能已经来之不易。 ◼ 2025 年广义赤字规模（国债、地方债合计，含 9 月下达的地方债结存限额）达到 14.36 万亿元，较 2023 年提升超过 40%，考虑到银行是承接政府债最主要的机构 主体，这在理论上会对银行的负债端形成较大冲击。但更加积极的财政政策与适度 宽松的货币政策有机结合，央行通过投放大规模的流动性，支撑银行体系负债端， 使国债、地方债、以及存单收益率在大规模供给的背景下，上行幅度都比较有限。 ◼ 此外，存单还面临其他多重扰动 ...

2025 年 11 月 30 日 渐行渐近：转债到期和时间价值衰 减压力分析 ——转债凸性与定价系列报告之四 ⚫ （1）剩余期限已缩短至 2.5 年附近，金融、消费转债"老龄化"严重 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 策 略 - ⚫ 随着时间自然流失，转债市场剩余期限天然存在缩短趋势，而新券发行是改善转债剩余期 限的核心手段，2024 年以来随着转债新发大幅放缓，转债剩余期限明显缩短。截止到 2025/11/21，转债加权剩余期限仅为 2.53 年左右，剩余期限在 2 年以内的转债余额占 比已逼近 40%。参照历史数据来看，如果转债发行短期不明显放量，每自 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, particularly highlighting the potential benefits for brokerage firms and insurance companies in the upcoming year [3][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the expected inflow of passive funds into newly included stocks in major indices, which could enhance liquidity and market performance for these stocks [4]. - It identifies key trends for 2026, including a shift in insurance companies' focus towards asset-liability matching and the stabilization of core business indicators due to new regulatory standards [4]. - The report recommends specific brokerage firms such as Dongfang Securities, GF Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Galaxy, as well as insurance companies like China Life and Ping An, based on their competitive positioning and growth potential [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,526.66 with a weekly increase of 1.64%, while the non-bank index rose to 1,932.15, reflecting a 0.68% increase [7]. - The brokerage sector index reported a 0.74% increase, and the insurance sector index saw a 0.20% rise [7]. Brokerage Sector Insights - Notable stocks in the brokerage sector included Guosheng Securities and Xinyi Securities, which saw increases of 3.68% and 3.36%, respectively [9]. - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 17,370.85 billion, a decrease of 6.87% week-on-week, but a year-to-date increase of 61.11% [20]. Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance sector is expected to experience a systematic revaluation in 2026, driven by long-term interest rate increases and continued investment from insurance funds into the stock market [4]. - The report highlights the performance of major insurance companies, with A-shares like China Life and Ping An showing modest increases [9]. Key Data Points - As of November 28, 2025, the average daily trading volume was 19,147.38 billion, and the margin trading balance was 24,720.45 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.6% [51][20]. - The report notes that the total market value of private equity funds reached 22.05 trillion, marking a historical high [21].