2026 年 01 月 27 日 固收+规模创历史新高，TMT 板块 配置策略分歧凸显 ——25Q4 固收+基金季报分析 相关研究 证券分析师 肖逸芳 A0230524110001 xiaoyf@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 肖逸芳 A0230524110001 xiaoyf@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 量 化 策 略 - ⚫ 固收+基金规模变化：1）本季度固收+基金规模再度上升，尽管规模变化的斜率不如 2025Q3，但总规模达到 2.18 万亿，已然创历史新高；2）按仓位类型看，中仓位的固收 +基金规模增加较多，按产品类型看，二级债基规模持续增加，一级债基规模小幅下滑； 3）规模上升最多的产品包括景顺长城景盛双息、永赢稳健增强、华夏稳享增利 6 个月滚 动等；4）本季度基金公司累计发行 43 ...

2026 年 01 月 27 日 累计规模创历史新高，四季度 FOF 偏好周期基金 ——25Q4 FOF 季报分析 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 相关研究 - 证券分析师 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 量 化 策 略 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 规模维度： 累计规模创历史新高、Q4 新发规模超过 25Q1~25Q3 总和；四季度 FOF 新 发规模与数量均高度突出：截止 25Q4，FOF 共计 549 只基金，相比 25Q3 存量 FOF 上 升 31 只，上升幅度在近三年中突出。四季度新发规模 454.22 亿元，超过 25Q1~25Q3 三季度的累计新发规模；持营规模略有上升：25Q4FOF 的持营规模略有上升，累计 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 25Q4, most asset performances showed marginal improvement. The revenue and EBITDA of public utilities, consumption, industrial parks, and warehousing logistics all increased, while the EBITDA decline of energy and transportation significantly narrowed year-on-year. However, the rental income and EBITDA of affordable rental housing decreased slightly, and IDC benefited from long - term contracts with major clients, maintaining stable performance [3]. - The performance of different sectors in the future will be affected by various factors. Public utilities are expected to have stable cash - flows, but performance differentiation depends on the active management ability of operators. The consumption sector is expected to have a compensatory increase in 26Q1, and its performance is expected to be stable in the long - term. Affordable rental housing will face new supply shocks in 2026, and different operators need to find a balance between volume and price. The energy sector's revenue stability depends on power trading strategies. The traffic sector's performance is related to road network planning and cost control. The warehousing sector's rent is expected to decline in the short - term, and the industrial park sector will enter a deep adjustment period [3][35][56][80][102][126][147][175]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - In 25Q4, the performance of most assets showed a marginal improvement trend. The revenue and EBITDA of consumption, industrial parks, and warehousing logistics increased quarter - on - quarter, and the revenue of public utilities increased year - on - year. The EBITDA decline of energy and transportation significantly narrowed, and the single - quarter distribution rate of the three major types of operating - rights assets increased significantly in 25H2 [3][6][8]. - The available distribution amount completion rate of REITs established in 2024 and 2025 was 79% and 64% respectively [11][13]. 3.2 Public Utilities - As of January 23, 2026, the expansion project of Shougang Water Service REIT was terminated. The scale and price of the four listed public - utility REITs are regulated by the government [20]. - In 25Q4, the waste treatment volume and power generation of Shougang Biomass REIT increased year - on - year. The sewage treatment volume of Shougang Water Service REIT decreased quarter - on - quarter, and the water supply volume of Shaoxing Raw Water REIT decreased quarter - on - quarter. The actual heat - stop rate of Jinan Energy Heating REIT was lower than expected, and the heating area increased [23]. - The revenue of Shougang Biomass REIT increased by more than 24% year - on - year, and Jinan Energy Heating REIT achieved significant cost - reduction. The revenue, profit, and available distribution amount of Shougang Water Service REIT decreased quarter - on - quarter, and the revenue, EBITDA, and available distribution amount of Shaoxing Raw Water REIT decreased quarter - on - quarter [27]. - In 2026, the cash - flows of public - utility REITs are expected to be stable, but the performance differentiation depends on the active management ability of operators. Attention should be paid to seasonal fluctuations, external interventions, and local new competition [35]. 3.3 Consumption - There are 12 listed consumption REITs, involving four types of sub - assets: shopping centers, outlet malls, supermarkets + community commerce, and agricultural product markets. The project management is generally carried out by high - quality commercial real - estate operating enterprises [39]. - In 25Q4, the eight consumption REITs achieved good operating performance. The rental rate and rent generally increased slightly year - on - year/quarter - on - quarter or remained basically the same, and the collection rate was close to full collection. Half of the projects' rent reached a new high in the past five periods [45]. - The fund revenue generally increased, and the performance of Bailian Consumption REIT significantly improved. The available distribution amount of most consumption REITs increased year - on - year/quarter - on - quarter or remained basically the same, but the available distribution amount of China Green Development Commercial REIT and Huagong Agricultural Market REIT decreased significantly quarter - on - quarter [49][56]. - In 26Q1, the operating performance of consumption REITs is expected to have a compensatory increase. In the long - term, with the implementation of the "national subsidy" policy and the focus on expanding domestic demand, the performance of consumption REITs is expected to be stable [56]. 3.4 Affordable Rental Housing - As of 25Q4, 8 affordable rental housing REITs were listed, and China Resources Youchao REIT completed its expansion and issuance [58]. - Government - led projects had stable volume and price, while market - oriented projects exchanged price for volume. The overall rental rate remained stable, but the rental rate of some projects decreased significantly, and the bottom - floor business recruitment progress of some projects was slow [61][64]. - The overall revenue increased, but the profit margin generally decreased quarter - on - quarter. The available distribution amount of most projects changed little or increased year - on - year, but the available distribution amount of some projects decreased significantly [65][69][74]. - In 2026, affordable rental housing REITs will face new supply shocks. First - tier cities' rents are expected to be more resilient, while second - and third - tier cities' rents may face greater pressure. Different operators need to find a sustainable balance between volume and price [80]. 3.5 Energy - As of January 23, 2026, 9 energy infrastructure REITs had been recruited. In 25Q4, China National Nuclear Power Clean Energy REIT was newly issued, and Beijing Energy Photovoltaic REIT completed its expansion [82]. - More than half of the energy REITs' power generation decreased year - on - year, and the power price generally declined year - on - year. The revenue slightly decreased, and the EBITDA stabilized, but the profit indicators were differentiated [84][88][94]. - About 67% of the REITs' available distribution amount increased year - on - year, driving the overall and unit available distribution amount to increase by 3.0% year - on - year [97]. - In 2026, the mechanism power generation will set a floor for revenue. The stability and elasticity of project revenue depend on power trading strategies and capabilities [100][102]. 3.6 Transportation - As of January 23, 2026, 13 transportation infrastructure REITs were listed, and 3 projects were queuing up [104]. - In 25Q4, most projects' daily average traffic volume decreased quarter - on - quarter/year - on - year, and the toll revenue decreased quarter - on - quarter but increased year - on - year. More than half of the projects' EBITDA profit margin was at the lowest level in the year [108][111][115]. - 40% of the REITs' available distribution amount increased year - on - year. The available distribution amount of some projects increased significantly, while that of some projects decreased due to high maintenance costs [122]. - In 2026, the traffic performance of projects affected by diversion in 2025 is expected to improve year - on - year, and the performance of projects still facing diversion pressure depends on refined cost control [126]. 3.7 Warehousing Logistics - As of January 23, 2026, 11 warehousing logistics REITs had been issued, mainly located in first - tier cities and their surrounding areas and logistics hub cities [128]. - In 25Q4, the national warehousing logistics rental market still faced rent adjustment pressure, with "regional differentiation and overall pressure". The rent of market - oriented rental projects decreased, and the overall rental rate increased slightly. The rent of whole - lease projects was relatively stable, with small fluctuations [131][135][136]. - The revenue and profit margin generally weakened, but the available distribution amount increased quarter - on - quarter on average due to the year - end centralized dividends of newly - listed REITs [138][142]. - In the short - term, the national warehousing rent is expected to continue to decline. The performance of projects will vary according to regional levels and rental operation models, and some projects with improved supply - demand conditions may recover first [147]. 3.8 Industrial Parks - As of 25Q4, 20 industrial park REITs were listed, involving 50 projects, mainly in the east of the Hu Line, with a continuous increase in R & D/office and manufacturing projects [149]. - The rental rate and collection rate of business parks increased, but the rent was still at the bottom. The rental rate and collection rate of manufacturing parks were high, but the rent still faced downward pressure [155][159]. - The marginal improvement of fund revenue began to appear, but the EBITDA was still under pressure. The change trend of the available distribution amount of individual bonds was differentiated, and some industrial park REITs' secondary - market net value dropped to a low level, with the distribution rate reaching a new high in the past five periods [163][167][171]. - In 2026, the supply of industrial parks is expected to be at a high level, and the rental downward pressure will continue. Attention should be paid to high - quality projects with a good supply - demand pattern, marginal improvement in operating fundamentals, and a stable rent trend [175]. 3.9 IDC - Two listed IDC - REITs operate under long - term agreements with major clients. In 25Q4, their operation was stable, and the financial indicators increased significantly quarter - on - quarter [177][181]. - In 2026, the basic business of the two IDC projects is expected to be stable due to long - term agreements. Attention should be paid to cost - side changes, such as the construction progress of surrounding substations and the control of energy - efficiency indicators [185].

Group 1: Company Overview - 易思维 is a pioneer in automotive machine vision in China, with over 90% of its revenue coming from the automotive manufacturing sector[4] - The company achieved a market share of 22.5% in the automotive machine vision products sector by 2024, making it the leading player in the industry[18] - The domestic localization rate for automotive machine vision products reached 31.7% in 2024, with 22.5% attributed to 易思维[18] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to be CNY 3.92 billion and CNY 860 million, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.6% and 274% from 2022 to 2024[24] - The gross profit margin for the company has remained high, ranging from 62% to 66% during the same period[4] - R&D expenses accounted for over 30% of revenue, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation and development[33] Group 3: Market Trends and Growth Potential - The Chinese automotive machine vision market is expected to grow to CNY 7.4 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 18% from 2025 to 2029[15] - In the rail transit maintenance sector, the market size is projected to reach CNY 5.34 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 8%[19] - The company has established a global presence, with significant sales growth in overseas markets, reporting CNY 17.38 million in foreign sales for 2024, nearly doubling year-on-year[15] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to market competition and performance volatility, which could impact revenue and profit margins[46] - Long payment cycles in the automotive industry may lead to increased accounts receivable and cash flow pressures[46] - There is a risk of declining gross margins due to intensified competition and rising costs[47]

2026 年 01 月 27 日 寻找下一个明星 ——港股通 2026 年 3 月调整名单预测 相关研究 《港股通 25 年 9 月调整回顾及 26 年 3 月调整测算——2025 年 9 月 港股通月报》 2025/09/23 《寻找下一个明星——港股通 2025 年 9 月调整名单预测》 2025/07/07 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 董易 A0230519110003 dongyi@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 汪琦阳 A0230125070006 wangqy@swsresearch.com ⚫ 恒生指数公司将在 2026 年 2 月 13 日公布 2025 年第四季度的恒生指数系列成分股检 讨结果，其结果将自 2026 年 3 月 9 日起生效。由于恒生综合指数的成分股可能将发生 变化，这一检讨亦将影响港股通标的。我们预计本轮将有 45 个标的有望获得港 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 "制造强国"实干系列周报(26/01/25期) 证券分析师： 韩强 A0230518060003 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 王珂 A0230521120002 刘正 A0230518100001 马天一 A0230525040004 戴文杰 A0230522100006 黄莎 A0230522010002 武雨桐 A0230520090001 李蕾 A0230519080008 穆少阳 A0230524070009 李冲 A0230524070001 沈呈熹 A0230524070004 苏萌 A0230524080011 联系人：何佳霖 A0230523080002 2026.1.27 核心观点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 商业航天：1）制造及发射端关注份额或价值量在降本趋势下有望维持相对稳定或具备提升潜力的核心标的；2）应用 端关注通信终端基带、射频芯片及相控阵天线配套标的；3）航天科技集团拥有较多体外资产，有较强并购重组预期。 重点关注标的：1）卫星载荷：信科移动+烽火通信+航天电子+上海瀚迅+臻镭科技，2）卫星平台：复旦微电+智明 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the AHP score is 2.84, placing it in the 46.9% percentile of the AHP model, indicating a relatively lower position in the upstream segment [4][10]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in automotive machine vision equipment in China, holding a market share of 22.5% in the automotive manufacturing machine vision product sector as of 2024, making it the only Chinese enterprise with annual revenue exceeding 100 million yuan in this field [4][20]. - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix covering all process stages of automotive manufacturing, including stamping, welding, painting, assembly, battery, and die-casting, and has developed a complete automated solution for paint defect detection and polishing [4][15]. - The company is expanding into the rail transit maintenance sector, which is expected to reach a market size of 5.34 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 8% from 2025 to 2029 [4][21]. - The company has formed partnerships with major automotive manufacturers, including FAW-Volkswagen, BYD, and NIO, and has begun to see significant growth in overseas sales, with a reported revenue of 17.38 million yuan in 2024, nearly doubling year-on-year [4][18]. Summary by Sections AHP Score and Expected Allocation Ratio - The AHP score for the company is calculated to be 2.84, indicating a position in the lower upstream segment of the AHP model [4][10]. Company Fundamentals and Highlights - The company is a leader in the domestic automotive machine vision equipment market, with over 90% of its revenue derived from the automotive manufacturing sector [4][11]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with a high R&D expense ratio exceeding 30%, which is above its peers [4][35]. - The company has a significant presence in the rail transit maintenance sector, with ongoing projects and a growing order book [4][22]. Financial Comparison with Peers - The company’s revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to be 392 million yuan and 86 million yuan, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 32.6% and 274% from 2022 to 2024, significantly outperforming its peers [4][26]. - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies is 119.83, while the company operates in a sector with a static P/E of 43.50 [4][25]. Fundraising Projects and Development Vision - The company plans to raise funds for a machine vision product industrialization base project and a machine vision R&D center, which are expected to enhance its production capacity and R&D capabilities [4][43].

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4133 | -0.09 | 4.26 | 0.45 | | 深证综指 | 2721 | -0.92 | 7.04 | 0.77 | | 风格指数 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (％) | | | | | 大盘指数 | 0 | 0.36 | 13.54 | | 中盘指数 | -0.39 | 11.93 | 34.07 | | 小盘指数 | -1.66 | 10.48 | 26.75 | | 涨幅居前 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | 行业(％) | | | | | 贵金属 | 10.24 | 46.38 | 97.93 | | 动物保健Ⅱ | 5.27 | 16.4 | 31.45 | | 工业金属 | 5.24 | 23.79 | 96.1 | | 小金属Ⅱ | 4.86 | 31.59 | 73.96 | | 饰品 | 4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage sector is "Buy" for key companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [44]. Core Insights - The report indicates a continued decline in the holdings of the food and beverage sector within mutual funds, with the top 20 holdings' market value as a percentage of total fund equity investments decreasing to 16.31% in Q4 2025, down 0.47 percentage points from Q3 2025 [5][21]. - Kweichow Moutai's market value as a percentage of total fund equity investments is 1.31%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous quarter, while Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also saw declines [9][10]. - The food and beverage sector's weight in the total A-share market capitalization has decreased to 4.04%, down 0.66 percentage points [25]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q4 2025, the number of funds holding Kweichow Moutai remained stable at 1,048, while Wuliangye saw a decrease of 109 funds to 175, and Luzhou Laojiao's holdings dropped by 18 to 128 [21]. - The concentration of holdings in the food and beverage sector is low, with only one company (Kweichow Moutai) in the top 20 holdings [7][8]. Sector Allocation - The food and beverage sector's heavy stock holdings accounted for 6.10% of total fund equity investments, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points from the previous quarter [25]. - The white liquor sector's heavy stock holdings accounted for 5.13%, also down 0.4 percentage points, indicating a position close to levels seen in Q1 2010 [25][39]. Individual Stock Performance - The report highlights that Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are currently below their average allocation levels since 2009, indicating potential undervaluation [9][10]. - The report notes that the allocation coefficient for the white liquor sector is 1.92, which is below the historical average of 2.11, suggesting a potential for recovery [25][39]. Northbound Capital Changes - In Q4 2025, the northbound capital holdings for major food and beverage stocks showed a mixed trend, with Shuanghui Development seeing an increase of 0.13 percentage points, while Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye experienced declines of 0.48 and 0.58 percentage points, respectively [44][45].

Group 1 - The total market value of convertible bonds decreased to approximately 725.5 billion yuan in Q4 2025, a decline of 57.8 billion yuan from the previous quarter, primarily due to the maturity and delisting of certain bonds [2][3] - The proportion of convertible bonds held by public funds increased to 42.5% of the total market value, up by 2.1% from the previous quarter, despite the overall market contraction [2][3] - The growth rate of public fund assets slowed down, with the total net value of funds reaching 22 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.7 trillion yuan, while the ratio of convertible bond market value to total fund value was about 3.3%, down by 0.4% from Q3 2025 [2][3] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, the secondary bond funds and primary bond funds were the main contributors to the increase in convertible bond holdings, while two convertible bond ETFs significantly reduced their holdings due to asset shrinkage [4][7] - The growth rates of various fund types showed significant variation, with commodity funds growing by 46%, bond FOF funds by 31%, and passive index bond funds by 21%, while ordinary stock funds and convertible bond funds saw declines of 6% and 4% respectively [4][10] - The overall position of secondary bond funds decreased the most, with a decline of 1.1%, while primary bond funds and convertible bond funds increased their positions by 0.4% and 0.5% respectively, indicating a selective optimism towards convertible bonds [12][17] Group 3 - The industry showed a clear "high cut low" trend, with increased holdings in convertible bonds from sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, banking, electronics, and steel, while holdings in communications, media, and computing sectors decreased [24][30] - The price selection for convertible bonds shifted towards more elastic ranges, with increased holdings in the price ranges of 115-130 yuan and above 170 yuan, while holdings in the ranges of 150-170 yuan and below 115 yuan saw a decline [30][32] - The report highlighted a preference for newly issued bonds and a reduction in holdings of bonds nearing maturity, indicating a cautious approach by public funds in their investment strategies [24][28]