Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting that quality developers will benefit from the expected policy support in the coming year [2][18]. Core Insights - Last week, major cities experienced a rebound in real estate transactions, driven by strong expectations for next year's policies, which will aid market consolidation and the development of new real estate models [2][18]. - In the 51st week of 2025, new home sales in 30 major cities reached 2.27 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 30.3% [19]. - First-tier cities sold 520,000 square meters, up 10.4% week-on-week but down 42% year-on-year, while second-tier cities sold 1.27 million square meters, up 13.45% week-on-week but down 30% year-on-year [19]. - The cumulative sales from December 1-18, 2025, in 30 cities totaled 5.27 million square meters, up 33% from November 2025 but down 30% year-on-year [19]. - Second-hand home sales in 24 cities also saw a rise, with 2.13 million square meters sold, up 1.71% week-on-week but down 25.3% year-on-year [20]. - The land transaction growth in 100 cities rebounded, with land supply at 11.48 million square meters and transactions at 46.03 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 0.25 [21]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In the 51st week of 2025, new home sales in major cities showed a significant week-on-week increase, with first-tier cities experiencing a 10.4% rise and second-tier cities a 13.45% rise [19]. - The cumulative sales from December 1-18, 2025, indicate a positive trend compared to the previous month, although year-on-year comparisons remain negative [19]. Second-hand Home Sales - Second-hand home sales also increased slightly, with a 1.71% rise week-on-week across 24 cities, although year-on-year figures still reflect a decline [20]. Land Transactions - The report highlights a rebound in land transactions, with a notable increase in both supply and sales, indicating a more active land market [21]. - The cumulative land transfer revenue for the year shows a decline compared to the previous year, but the recent week’s performance suggests a potential recovery [21]. Inventory and Clearance Cycle - The inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities has increased, indicating a longer time required to sell existing inventory, which may impact future sales dynamics [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the coal sector, recommending a focus on key players such as China Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, while also keeping an eye on Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding [3]. Core Insights - The coal price is expected to stabilize, with a bottom range projected between 680-700 RMB/ton. The demand is currently at a median level compared to the past five years, and port inventories are showing a downward trend. The report anticipates a rebound in coal prices to over 800 RMB/ton by November [3][4]. - The coal sector is believed to have reached a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics. A new upward cycle for coal and downstream thermal power demand is expected to begin in the second half of 2026 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of December 19, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 721 RMB/ton, down 42 RMB/ton (-5.5%) from the previous week. The price of Q5000 coal at the same port is 620 RMB/ton, also down 42 RMB/ton (-6.3%) [6][12]. - Domestic coal prices are generally declining, while international prices are mixed, with Newcastle coal prices showing a slight increase [41][49]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic coal supply remains stable, with imports expected to decrease. The report notes that the demand for coal is improving significantly during the off-peak season, with Q3 profits anticipated to rebound [3][4]. - As of December 19, 2025, the total inventory of coking coal at three major ports is 279.7 million tons, down 7.1% from the previous week [58]. Long-term Contracts and Pricing - The annual long-term contract price for Q5500 coal at Northern Ports is 694 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10 RMB/ton (1.5%) [34]. - The report indicates that the long-term contract prices for coking coal have remained stable compared to the previous week [59]. Key Market Events - The report highlights significant developments in coal transportation infrastructure in Inner Mongolia, which is expected to enhance coal logistics efficiency and capacity [81]. - It also notes that coal prices have continued to decline in early December, with various types of coal experiencing price drops [81].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the Chinese staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yanjing Beer among others [1]. Core Insights - The global beer industry is undergoing a profound transformation, shifting from cyclical fluctuations to structural changes, driven by health consciousness and generational shifts in consumption [3][10]. - In China, the beer market faces unique challenges, including a transition to value-driven consumption, the failure of traditional distribution models, and intensified cross-industry competition [17][18]. Summary by Sections Global Beer Industry Transformation - Global beer sales are projected to decline by 1% in 2024, remaining below pre-pandemic levels, with significant shifts in consumer behavior noted, particularly among younger generations [10][12]. - Health awareness is leading to a reduction in alcohol consumption, with 49% of American consumers planning to drink less, a trend that is even more pronounced among Generation Z [12][17]. Strategic Directions for Chinese Beer Companies - **Leadership and Efficiency**: Establishing a dominant position in the local market is crucial for global expansion. Companies should focus on high-end product quality, optimizing cost structures, and building strong regional brands before expanding nationally [4][19]. - **Diversification**: Successful diversification should focus on product synergy, channel reuse, and brand extension, with a high success rate in expanding into related categories like low-alcohol and soft drinks [5][37]. - **Internationalization**: Companies should adopt a cautious approach to internationalization, starting with exports and partnerships in Belt and Road countries to mitigate risks [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Chinese beer companies should enhance operational efficiency, innovate product offerings tailored to local tastes, and pursue diversification and internationalization strategies that are risk-controlled [7][34]. - Key investment lines include operational improvements leading to value reassessment, beneficiaries of structural upgrades, and pioneers in emerging categories [7][34].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to BaiRong Cloud, indicating an expected relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [14]. Core Insights - BaiRong Cloud launched its ResultsCloud platform, which aims to transform the business model from "selling tools" to "selling outcomes" through three major technological innovations and a RaaS (Results-as-a-Service) model [1][6]. - The introduction of silicon-based employees (AI Agent-like applications) represents a fundamental shift in production factors, moving from human reliance to human-machine collaboration [1][6]. - The company plans a three-phase strategy: consolidating fintech advantages and improving silicon-based employee standards from 2025-2026, expanding into vertical sectors like healthcare and education from 2027-2028, and becoming a global leader in silicon-based productivity by 2029-2030 [2][6]. Summary by Sections Technological Innovations - The ResultsCloud platform features a three-layer architecture: AI Infra reasoning engine, AgentOS lifecycle management, and AgentStore commercialization applications [2]. - The AI Infra reasoning engine enhances inference performance by 300% compared to general frameworks, while AgentOS allows for rapid deployment of silicon-based employees within two weeks [2]. Product Offerings - The AgentStore has launched four key products: 1. BaiYing for customer service and marketing, improving customer satisfaction by 40% 2. BaiCai for recruitment, reducing hiring cycles to 28 days and increasing productivity by 5 times 3. BaiJian for cross-border legal and tax services, enhancing efficiency by 90% and reducing costs by 70% 4. BaiZhi for knowledge production, compressing cycles to 4 days and boosting efficiency by 400% [2]. Strategic Importance - The large-scale application of silicon-based employees is expected to redefine core competitiveness in enterprises, with early adopters of human-machine collaboration gaining a competitive edge in the digital economy [3][6]. - BaiRong Cloud's transition from a model service provider to a rental provider of AI employees could lead to a disruptive transformation in the B-end AI and software industries, expanding its business scope beyond finance [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for H&H International Holdings, targeting a price of HK$17.00 from the current price of HK$13.45 [1][2]. Core Insights - H&H International Holdings is a leading global enterprise in high-end family nutrition and health products, established in 1999 and headquartered in Hong Kong. The company operates in three main segments: Baby Nutrition and Care (BNC), Adult Natural Health Nutrition and Care (ANC), and Pet Nutrition and Care (PNC), with products sold in over 20 countries [3][9]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a projected increase in net profit from a loss of RMB 54 million in 2024 to RMB 641 million in 2026, reflecting a substantial recovery and growth trajectory [7][12]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB 14.13 billion, representing an 8% increase from 2024, with net profit expected to reach RMB 415 million, marking an 873% increase year-on-year [7][12]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 60.6% in 2024 to 61.8% by 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [7]. Business Segment Performance - The ANC segment has shown robust growth, with revenue reaching RMB 52.4 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a 6% year-on-year increase. Swisse, a key brand in this segment, maintains the number one market share in China [4][44]. - The BNC segment has experienced a remarkable recovery, with revenue increasing by 24% year-on-year to RMB 39.7 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong sales of infant formula [5][45]. - The PNC segment also demonstrated steady growth, achieving RMB 15.9 billion in revenue, up 8.2% year-on-year, with brands like SolidGold and ZestyPaws leading the market [6][12]. Market Dynamics - The high-end nutrition and health products market in China is driven by economic growth, urbanization, and rising disposable incomes, leading to increased consumer demand for premium health products [19][25]. - The adult nutrition segment is benefiting from heightened health awareness among consumers, while the baby nutrition market is expected to continue growing due to increasing quality demands from parents [26][32]. Strategic Initiatives - H&H has adopted a multi-brand strategy to enhance its global presence, with significant investments in R&D and marketing to support product innovation and market penetration [10][12]. - The company is focusing on digital health ecosystems and sustainable development, aiming to leverage technology for improved consumer engagement and operational efficiency [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to RENOVA, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark by more than 10% [17]. Core Insights - RENOVA is positioned to benefit from strong growth prospects in renewable energy, particularly in Asia, which currently has the highest growth rate for renewable energy globally [2][3]. - The company aims to achieve a cumulative installed capacity of 5 GW and an EBITDA of 60 billion yen by 2030, reaffirming its guidance for fiscal year 2026 with expected revenues of 90.5 billion yen and an EBITDA of 31.6 billion yen, representing a 36% year-on-year increase [2][3]. - RENOVA's project development is progressing as planned, with significant advancements in biomass and energy storage projects, including a 15 MW operational storage project in Himeji and a 200 MW BESS project in Texas expected to commence operations in FY2027 [3][2]. Summary by Sections Company Background - RENOVA is an independent renewable energy company in Japan, focusing on expanding its renewable energy capacity across Japan and Asia, leveraging a favorable policy environment for clean energy development [2]. Mid-term Plans and FY2026 Guidance - The company has reiterated its mid-term development plan announced in May, targeting 5 GW of installed capacity and 60 billion yen in EBITDA by 2030, with specific guidance for FY2026 including revenues of 90.5 billion yen and an EBITDA of 31.6 billion yen, exceeding market expectations [2]. Capacity Expansion Progress - RENOVA's project timelines are on track, with the biomass power plant in Osaka recovering from previous operational issues and the Himeji storage project performing well. The company also highlighted its involvement in three additional storage projects with a total capacity of 215 MW [3][2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific company. Core Insights - Volcengine is transitioning "Agent deployment" from conceptual discussions to practical engineering and production, creating a comprehensive support system that includes model services, training optimization, context and memory management, enterprise foundations, and developer efficiency tools [2][16] - The launch of the Responses API and Developer Mode marks significant advancements in the engineering capabilities of the Volcano Ark platform, enabling reduced response latency and failure rates, and improving overall production efficiency [3][17] - The AgentKit platform is designed to address enterprise bottlenecks by allowing existing assets to be orchestrated by Agents securely and measurably without extensive system overhauls [4][18] - The developer ecosystem is expanding, with over 3 million monthly active developers on the Coze platform and 1.6 million on TRAE, indicating strong user engagement and community growth [5][19] Summary by Sections Event Overview - On December 18, 2025, Volcengine introduced a series of upgrades at the FORCE Conference, focusing on scaling Agents for multi-modal applications and enhancing its developer ecosystem [1][15] Engineering and Production Capabilities - The integrated product portfolio aims to shift Agents from proof-of-concept to scalable applications, providing clear value to enterprises by lowering integration costs and defining engineering boundaries [2][16] - The Responses API allows for multi-turn context carryover and reduces overhead from traditional methods, while Developer Mode enhances observability and debugging of the Agent decision-making process [3][17] Enterprise Solutions - The AgentKit platform features a modular architecture that emphasizes governance, compliance, and sustainable operations, addressing key enterprise challenges [4][18] - TRAE CN Enterprise enhances the stability and security of enterprise AI coding, supporting large codebases and ensuring data compliance [4][18] Ecosystem Development - The conference emphasized a dual approach of product releases and community engagement to foster sustainable growth, with plans to expand community initiatives across multiple cities [5][19] - The focus on strengthening technical foundations and exploring cross-disciplinary opportunities provides developers with a clear methodological framework [5][19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, Huazhu Hotels, Haidilao, and others, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the F&B, designer toys, and home appliance sectors, including Pop Mart's opening of a Pop Bakery store at Beijing Capital International Airport and the launch of new HPP fruit juices by Guming [7]. - The domestic production scheduling of air conditioners is reported to have increased by 32.0% year-on-year, while export production scheduling rose by 14.0% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in both domestic and export markets [7]. - The implementation of a full-menu transparent classification system by Tai Er aims to enhance consumer awareness and choice by categorizing dishes based on their freshness and preparation methods [7]. Weekly Performance of Key Companies - Notable performers in the F&B sector include Guangzhou Restaurant (+8.8%) and Tongqinglou (+6.2%), while Zhejiang Meida in the home appliance sector saw a rise of 12.2% [2][8]. - Underperformers included Xiaocaiyuan (-5.9%) and Chagee (-8.8%) in the F&B sector [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved. Core Insights - The launch of Doubao Large Model 1.8 and Seedance 1.5 Pro at the Volcengine FORCE Conference indicates significant advancements in AI capabilities, particularly in multimodal applications and audio-video synchronization [1][13] - Doubao's average daily token usage has exceeded 50 trillion, reflecting a more than 10-fold year-over-year increase, and it serves over 100 enterprise customers, indicating successful scaling in production environments [1][14] - The introduction of the "AI Savings Plan" aims to transition AI model consumption from fragmented trials to centralized procurement, reducing friction costs for enterprises [4][17] Summary by Sections Doubao Large Model 1.8 - Doubao 1.8 focuses on solving the "last mile" issue for enterprise Agent deployment, enhancing multi-tool orchestration and reliable execution under complex instructions [2][15] - The model's capabilities are designed to support high-value scenarios such as quality inspection and retail operations, directly impacting ROI considerations for enterprise clients [2][15] Seedance 1.5 Pro - Seedance 1.5 Pro offers high-fidelity audio-visual synchronization and multilingual lip-sync capabilities, addressing common challenges in AI video generation [3][16] - The "Draft Preview" mechanism introduced in Seedance 1.5 Pro significantly improves creation efficiency by approximately 65%, facilitating standardized production processes in various sectors [3][16] Enterprise Solutions - The AgentKit and HiAgent platforms are designed to streamline deployment and integration costs for enterprises, addressing challenges in permission management and system observability [4][17] - The combination of model capabilities, platform tools, and pricing mechanisms aims to lower the total cost of ownership (TCO) for enterprises, fostering customer loyalty and reducing barriers to AI deployment [4][17]

周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 20 Dec 2025 中国策略 China Strategy 缩量蓄势延续，逢低布局春季行情 Volume Contraction Signals Consolidation; Buy the Dips Ahead of the Spring Rally 上周我们认为，中国市场将由反弹后期转入震荡蓄势阶段，但整体回调空间有限，仍属于逢低布局的窗口。行业 层面，我们认为内需消费获得利好支撑，在震荡环境下有望跑出相对收益。本周港股和 A 股探底回升，恒生指数跌 1.1%，恒生科技跌 2.8%，上证综指基本持平，创业板指跌 2.3%，科创 50 跌 3%；其中必需消费和非银领涨。 海外市场方面，美 CPI ...