[Table_Title] 研究报告 2025 年 5 月 13 日 雷诺瓦（9519 JP） 业绩稳健；2026 财年指引释放强劲盈利增长信号 Scott Darling Catherine Li 事件 尽管 RENOVA2025 财年第四季度息税折摊前利润因超预期营收表现优于一致预期，但其 2025 财年第四季度业绩仍可 能被市场视作利好。根据公司新公布的 2026 财年指引，营收、息税折摊前利润及盈利分别为 905 亿日元、316 亿日 元和 15 亿日元，仅略低于一致预期。公司项目总体进展顺利，并进一步披露了已通过最终投资决策的储能项目细 节。 点评 营收超出一致预期：RENOVA 的息税折摊前利润为 67 亿日元（一致预期约为 55 亿日元），主要受益于超预期的营 收表现。 2026 财年盈利指引低于一致预期；但盈利能力稳健提升：根据 RENOVA 公布的 2026 财年（截至 2026 年 3 月止财 年）新指引，营收为 905 亿日元（一致预期为 923 亿日元）、息税折摊前利润为 316 亿日元，同比增长 36%（一致 预期为 346 亿日元）、盈利为 15 亿日元（一致预期为 28.8 亿日 ...

wo[Table_Title] Research Report 13 May 2025 中国互联网 China (Overseas) Internet T86 未被纳入中美谈判议题，跨境电商税负压力持续 [Table_summary] 事件： 截至 2025 年 5 月 12 日，中美在日内瓦举行的高层经贸谈判取得了实质性进展。但此次联合声明并没有提及 T86 政 策，意味着 T86 政策照常取消。自从 2025 年 5 月 2 日美国正式取消 T86 免税政策，标志着中国跨境电商在美"低价 直邮"时代的终结，尤其对跨境电商 Temu,TikTok, Shein 等产生影响。 点评： T86 取消带来成本飙升与履约难题 1）Temu： 模式受限，市场份额下滑。Temu 原本依赖于中国直邮和低价策略在美国市场迅速扩张。然而，T86 政策的取消迫 使 Temu 停止从中国直接向美国客户发货，转而依赖美国本地卖家和仓储系统。这一转变导致其在美国的下载量下 降了 73%，活跃用户减少了 43%。此外，Temu 还削减了在美国的广告支出，并计划在美国建立本地仓储和物流运 营，以适应新的贸易环境。 T86 policy ...

姚书桥 Barney Yao [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 13 May 2025 [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 中国政府以及美国政府发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，双方承诺将于 2025 年 5 月 14 日前将降低关税。美国对中国 商品关税税率从 145%降至 30%，为期 90 天。中国对美国商品关税税率从 125% 降至 10%，为期 90 天。 点评 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology 中美关税合理化，科技硬件估值修复 China-U.S. Tariff Easing Supports Valuation Recovery In Tech Hardware barney.sq.yao@htisec.com 半导体：短期降税红利与长期国产替代并行。美国半导体企业短期成本压力将显著缓解。德州仪器（TI）与 ADI 在 华收入占比分别为 18%和 15%，关税下调后模拟芯片出口 ...

24 年减值影响业绩，25 年期待成本下行 2024 年报及 25Q1 季报点评 本报告导读： 24 年业绩受减值影响承压，看好 25 年成本改善。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 9,508 | 9,271 | 9,571 | 10,050 | 10,552 | | (+/-)% | 16.8% | -2.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | | 净利润（归母） | 431 | 248 | 618 | 706 | 831 | | (+/-)% | 316.9% | -42.3% | 148.7% | 14.3% | 17.6% | | 每股净收益（元） | 0.31 | 0.18 | 0.45 | 0.51 | 0.60 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 5.8% | 3.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | | 市盈率(现价&最新股本摊薄） | 22.20 | 38.5 ...

研究报告 Research Report 12 May 2025 五粮液 Wuliangye Yibin (000858 CH) 行业调整期不改核心资产本色 盈利预测与投资建议：公司分红率由 23 年的 60%提升至 24 年的 70%，显著高于 A 股平均水平，持续提振市场信心。鉴于公司收入 增速指引从过去几年的双位数下调至中个位数，我们预计 2025- 2027 年公司收入为 938/989/1032 亿元，归母净利润分别为 335/348/360 亿元，对应 EPS 分别为 8.6/9.0/9.3 元（原 2025 预测 为 10.3 元）。参考可比公司估值水平，我们给予公司 20x 2025e PE （此前为 2024 年 22x），目标价由 194 下调至 172 元，维持"优于 大市"评级。 风险提示：食品安全风险，市场竞争加剧，经营策略成效不及预 期。 [Table_Author] 闻宏伟 Hongwei Wen 吴岱禹 Jasmine Wu Industry adjustment period does not change the nature of the core assets [Tab ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 45.91, reflecting a slight decrease of 2% from previous estimates [4][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 5.62 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 2.65 billion, up 31.72% year-on-year [9]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 1.21 billion, a 3.57% increase year-on-year but a 20.27% decrease quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 0.56 billion, down 1.15% year-on-year and 3.63% quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The revenue growth in Q1 2025 fell short of expectations due to tariff adjustments and increased overseas warehouse shipments affecting delivery timelines [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are updated to RMB 2.90 billion, RMB 3.24 billion, and RMB 3.58 billion for net profit, with corresponding EPS of RMB 2.30, RMB 2.56, and RMB 2.83 [9]. - The company’s revenue from desktop communication terminals is RMB 3.08 billion, with a gross profit margin of 67.55%. Conference products generated RMB 1.99 billion in revenue, with a gross profit margin of 65.67% [9]. - The total cash dividends for 2024 are projected at RMB 2.40 billion, with a payout ratio of 90.59% [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 57.92, representing a potential upside of 19% from the current price of RMB 49.40 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth in its Q1 2025 performance, with revenue reaching RMB 220 million, up 14.97% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 71 million, up 15.82% YoY [10]. - The nucleating agent industry is expected to experience significant growth, with the global market projected to reach approximately USD 1.2 billion by 2030, driven by increasing demand for high-performance resin materials [10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 882 million, a 10.31% increase YoY, and a net profit of RMB 250 million, up 10.68% YoY [10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 2.32, with further growth expected in subsequent years, reaching RMB 3.36 by 2027 [4][9]. - The company has maintained a strong return on equity (ROE), projected to be 19.9% in 2025, with a steady increase in net profit margins [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report rates the thermal power sector as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - Thermal power remains the most promising yet controversial sector, with significant market performance observed in the week of May 5-9, 2025, including Huaneng Power International up by 4% and Longyuan Power up by 6.3% [4] - Despite a significant decline in thermal power output in Q1, fixed costs per unit remained stable due to lower interest rates and enhanced cost control measures [4] - The report anticipates four new characteristics for the power industry in 2025: 1. Electricity prices exceeding expectations; 2. Coal prices exceeding expectations; 3. Fixed costs exceeding expectations; 4. State-owned enterprise reform and market capitalization management exceeding expectations [4] - China's Q1 electricity elasticity coefficient is reported at 0.46%, but it is expected to exceed 1 in 2025, indicating a potential increase in electricity demand relative to GDP growth [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The power sector showed strong performance in early May 2025, with notable increases in stock prices for major companies [4] Cost Dynamics - Q1 thermal power output saw a significant decline, but fixed costs per unit remained stable, attributed to lower interest rates and improved cost management [4] Future Expectations - The report outlines expectations for 2025, highlighting potential increases in electricity and coal prices, as well as fixed costs, alongside anticipated reforms in state-owned enterprises [4] Auxiliary Services - The introduction of the "Basic Rules for Power Auxiliary Service Market" is expected to enhance the value of thermal and hydropower sources, promoting a shift from policy-driven to market-driven development [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Kweichow Moutai [2][10][16] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai is expected to significantly benefit from the revaluation of Chinese assets due to economic transformation, a favorable policy environment, low valuations compared to global markets, and increased capital inflows [3][4][13][14] - The company is viewed as a core asset with enhanced attractiveness for investment, supported by strong strategic holdings from state-owned funds and increasing public fund allocations [4][14] - Kweichow Moutai demonstrates strong performance stability across economic cycles, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% for revenue and 15.2% for net profit from 2019 to 2024, alongside high dividend payouts [5][15][16] Financial Summary - Current price is Rmb1,591 with a target price of Rmb1,972, reflecting a potential upside [2][16] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are Rmb190,868 million, Rmb208,285 million, and Rmb228,087 million respectively, with net profit estimates of Rmb98,561 million, Rmb108,443 million, and Rmb120,373 million [2][11][15] - The company maintains a gross profit margin (GPM) of around 92% and a return on equity (ROE) of approximately 36% [5][11][15] Investment Thesis - The investment thesis highlights the company's high dividend payout ratio of 75% and a dividend yield of 3.5%, providing a solid return cushion [16] - The management's confidence is further demonstrated by share repurchases totaling Rmb3.039 billion, supporting the stock price [16] - The report adjusts the earnings forecast and target price due to a decrease in growth guidance from 15% to 9% for 2025, with a revised PE ratio of 26 times for 2025 [16]

Group 1: 2011-2014: Overseas Liquidity and Mobile Internet Wave - The Hong Kong stock market significantly outperformed the A-share market from late 2011 to mid-2014, with the Hang Seng Index achieving an excess return of 62 percentage points relative to the CSI 300 [9][10][22] - Key drivers included abundant overseas liquidity, gradual appreciation of the Renminbi, and a weak recovery in domestic fundamentals supported by government policies [10][11][22] - The mobile internet wave catalyzed the market, with hardware investments transitioning to software applications, leading to substantial gains in the technology sector [22][23] Group 2: 2016-2018: Supply-Side Reform and Capital Inflow - The Hong Kong stock market continued to outperform the A-share market from 2016 to 2018, with the Hang Seng Index outperforming the CSI 300 by 38 percentage points during this period [29][30] - The market was driven by supply-side structural reforms that improved fundamentals, alongside significant inflows of capital from mainland investors [30][36] - In 2016, the Hong Kong market was notably undervalued, with the Hang Seng Index trading at a historical low price-to-book ratio, which attracted investment [30][43] Group 3: 2019-2021: Rapid Recovery and Liquidity Expansion - From late 2019 to early 2021, the core assets of the Hong Kong stock market significantly outperformed the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Technology Index achieving a 137 percentage point excess return over the CSI 300 [60][61] - This performance was supported by a favorable overseas liquidity environment and rapid recovery of the domestic economy post-COVID-19, leading to improved corporate earnings [61][62] - The influx of Chinese concept stocks returning to Hong Kong also enhanced market liquidity and attractiveness, further driving investment [63][64]