氢周一见|动量守恒 SP-PTL 实现大尺寸规模化量产 产业研究中心 | | S | 陈磊(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | S | 021-38676666 | | | 登记编号 | S0880522060001 | | 4月7日,北京 | | | | 施首都标准化战 | | | | 61个项目给予 | S | 王浩(分析师) | | 氢能项目入选, | | | | | 2 | 021-38676666 | | | 登记编号 | S0880513090004 | | 色甲醇等绿色能 | | | | 、市国资委、市 | | | | 行动方案(2025- | ર્ | 鲍雁辛(分析师) | | 易集聚区,建设 | | | | | 2 | 021-38676666 | | 能源交易方式。 | | | | 人 + L = 11. '1 · + | | | 摘要: 产业政策及动态 标准和交易机制。支持国内外企业参与绿色能源交易,扩大交易规模。(上 海市商务委员会) 登记编号 0 北京:氢能项目入选石景山区首都标准化战略补助资金。4月7日,北京 市石景山区市场监督管理局发布对 2024年度石 ...

欧洲央行利率决议符合市场预期 [Table_Authors] 王子翌(分析师) ——大类资产配置周度点评（20250421） 登记编号 S0880523050004 021-38676666 本报告导读： 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们维持对 A 股的战术性标配观点，维 持对国债的战术性超配观点，维持对黄金的战术性超配观点。 投资要点： 主 动 量 化 周 报 融 工 程 金融工程/[Table_Date] 2025.04.21 [Table_Summary] 我们维持对 A 股的战术性标配观点。"924"系列政策组合拳有力地 逆转了此前市场极度悲观的预期，并消除了政策的不确定性，市场 风险偏好中枢以及资金流动性得以趋势性提升，A 股定价回归"以 我为主"的主线，而对复杂多变的外部宏观背景逐渐钝化。总量政 策层面，财政积极发力、货币政策维持宽松，市场担忧的债务问题 亦在逐步缓解；产业层面，中国科技的突破有利于企业增加信心并 增加资本开支。特朗普针对中国乃至全球的关税战争压制了全球投 资者的风险偏好，但机构资金购买权益提振股市的行为稳定了市场 情绪，市场对于 A 股定价因子的预期较为稳定。我们认为 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 11.42 CNY [2][6][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Xiangcai Co. possesses competitive advantages in traffic conversion and providing quality wealth management services. The merger with Dazhihui is expected to drive significant growth in the company's performance [3][40]. - The company is transitioning towards an "AI advisory brokerage" model, leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and service offerings [12][31]. Financial Summary - The financial projections indicate a decline in revenue from 3,516 million CNY in 2022 to 2,321 million CNY in 2023, followed by a gradual recovery to 2,966 million CNY by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8% from 2024 to 2026 [5][16]. - Net profit is forecasted to recover from a loss of 326 million CNY in 2022 to a profit of 413 million CNY by 2026, with significant growth expected in 2025 [5][16]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from -0.11 CNY in 2022 to 0.14 CNY in 2026 [5][16]. Business Model and Strategy - Xiangcai Co. has transformed into a financial holding platform focused on securities business, with over 70% of its revenue derived from this sector [23][24]. - The company is enhancing its wealth management capabilities by integrating digital platforms and collaborating with leading financial technology firms [30][37]. - The merger with Dazhihui is anticipated to create synergies that will enhance customer acquisition, service integration, and innovative business offerings [40][41]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a relative valuation approach, using a P/E ratio of 90x for 2025 to arrive at the target price of 11.42 CNY, reflecting the company's growth potential [18][20]. - A P/B ratio of 3x is also considered, leading to an alternative valuation of 13.01 CNY, but the report favors the more conservative P/E valuation [18][22].

业绩符合预期，新能源零组件开始放量 凯中精密(002823) ——凯中精密 2024 年年报点评 [Table_Industry] 资本货物/工业 | [table_Authors] 肖群稀(分析师) | 刘麒硕(研究助理) | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 15.39 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | 登记编号 S0880522120001 | S0880123070153 | | | | | | [当前价格： Table_CurPrice] | 12.53 | 本报告导读： 公司新能源汽车零组件业务进入放量期，看好 2025 年公司新业务持续放量，带动业 绩成长。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 3,024 | 3,050 | 3,648 | 4,107 | 4,653 | | (+ ...

【智能车产业跟踪】比亚迪发布第五代 DM-p 产业研究中心 混动技术,广汽发布具身智能核心部件 摘要:产业最新趋势跟踪,点评产业最新风向 Q 信息速递 新能源汽车周度销量榜: 新车发布: 上周(4月5日至4月11日)新发布的汽车:风云 A8、零跑 B10、江淮 X8E 家、比亚迪汉 L、唐 L、大通 G50 混动、大道 EV、捷途 X90 C-DM、北京 BJ40 增程、创维 EV6。 | S | 王浩(分析师) | | --- | --- | | S | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880513090004 | 政策与热点事件: 0 锂电资讯 据 Wind,SMM 数据,近期电芯、模组、PACK 价格平衡震荡,电池级碳酸锂 价格震荡小幅下行,4月11日均价报 7.16万元/吨。预计碳酸锂价格在短期内 仍将维持震荡偏弱走势。 乘联分会崔东树:美增加关税将使中国电动汽车在海外有更大发展空间 发改委:赴广东等开展新能源汽车及相关行业专题调研 四川:首次针对汽车后市场出台专项政策 长安汽车:2024年营业收入 1597.33 亿元,同比增长 5.58% 上汽与 OPPO 深化战略合作 长城汽 ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.17 | "开门红"的经济：结构如何 | [Table_Authors] | 李林芷(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 021-38676666 | | 2025 年一季度经济数据点评 | 登记编号 | S0880525040087 | | 本报告导读： | | 梁中华(分析师) | | 一季度经济中生产、消费、投资全面改善，政策受益板块表现更加强劲，下阶段预 | | 021-38676666 | | 计积极政策会继续逐步发力稳增长。 | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 专 题 [Table_Summary] 2025 年一季度经济实现"开门红"，GDP 实际同比增长 5.4%，与去 年四季度持平且高于年度增长目标。一方面，促消费、稳地产等政 策叠加春节假期效应，居民各类需求集中性释放；另一方面，外需 仍有韧性，尤其是 3 月"抢出口"现象再现，对国内生产有一定支 撑。 从分项看，生产、消费、投资增速均有回升，这主要 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market has witnessed significant selling of US Treasuries, mainly by global central banks and hedge funds. China and Japan have been reducing their US Treasury holdings, while the UK has been increasing its holdings. The short - term sharp decline in US Treasuries is mainly due to the liquidation and selling by basis - trading related institutions. Hedge fund liquidation can trigger a spiral decline. [3][7] - In 2025, the US has a large debt repayment pressure in the second quarter. The total unpaid debt in 2025 has increased by 4.68% ($1.61 trillion) compared to 2024, with about $6 trillion of debt maturing from April to June, increasing debt risks. [4][21] - In the short term, US Treasury yields may remain high, and liquidity risks need to be vigilant. In the long term, as the impact of tariffs on the economy becomes more apparent, the US economy faces a risk of recession, and with the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, US Treasuries are expected to strengthen. The 10Y US Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 4% - 5% in the short term and may decline to below 4% in the long term. [4][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Recent Sellers of US Treasuries - In the past week (April 4 - 11), US Treasuries fell significantly, and yields climbed. The 10Y US Treasury yield rose by a maximum of 47bp to 4.48% within the week, while the 2Y/1Y yields rose by a maximum of 28/18bp. [8] - Among the major US Treasury - holding countries, China and Japan have been reducing their holdings since 2018 and 2021 respectively. In 2024, China and Japan reduced their holdings by $572.9 billion and $554.4 billion respectively. The UK has been increasing its holdings since 2016 and is about to overtake China as the second - largest holder. In 2024, the UK increased its holdings by $342.0 billion. Some financial institutions, such as Japan's Norinchukin Financial Group, sold US Treasuries due to liquidity problems. [9] - The short - term sharp decline in US Treasuries is mainly due to the liquidation and selling by basis - trading related institutions. Hedge funds hold US Treasury spot in basis trading. When US Treasury yields rise sharply in the short term, losses in spot positions can trigger margin calls, leading to further selling of US Treasuries and a spiral decline. [3][14] 3.2 Another Risk Point of US Treasuries - In 2025, the total unpaid debt in the US has increased by 4.68% ($1.61 trillion) compared to 2024. As of April 3, 2025, the total national debt was $36.22 trillion, with about $6 trillion maturing from April to June. The average interest rate on US debt has risen significantly since 2021, increasing the proportion of debt - repayment expenditures. [4][21] - The US Treasury term structure is mainly mid - term notes (2 - 10 years). As of March 2025, mid - term notes accounted for 51.22% ($14.81 trillion) of the total outstanding public debt. [27] 3.3 US Treasury Outlook - In the short term, US Treasury yields may remain high because US hedge funds hold a large number of long positions in basis trading, and there is a negative feedback mechanism between basis trading and rising US Treasury yields. Short - term liquidity risks need to be vigilant, as high yields for a long time may lead to extreme situations such as an increase in loan default rates, a collapse of the high - yield bond market, and a crisis among small and medium - sized banks. [4][31] - In the long term, as the impact of tariffs on the economy becomes more obvious, global economic activities and trade slow down, and the US economy faces a risk of recession. Coupled with the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, US Treasuries are expected to strengthen. The 10Y US Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 4% - 5% in the short term and may decline to below 4% in the long term. [4][31]

【AI 产业跟踪】 谷歌版「氛围编程」全栈平产业研究中心 台发布,2028年中国 AI 总投资突破千亿美元 必 摘要:产业最新趋势跟踪,点评产业最新风向 Q AI 行业动态 IDC 发 AI 支出指南:2028年中国 AI 总投资将突破千亿美元 Cerebras CEO: 3-5 年后对 Transformer、英伟达依赖将降低 前 OpenAI 研究员团队发布《AI 2027》预测报告 456 页 2025 年斯坦福 HAI 报告重磅发布 Q AI 应用资讯 国内资讯 字节跳动提出 DreamActor-M1 框架 米哈推出 AI 游戏《Whispers From The Star》 AI 硬件领域推出现象级项目"小智 AI" | ت S | 李嘉琪(分析师) | | --- | --- | | S | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880524040001 | | S | 刘峰(研究助理) | | S | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880124060013 | 海外资讯 NVIDIA 推出 NIM 微服务,简化 RTX AI PC 等智能体工作流 Meta ...

观研究 E 泰 周 曲止 茶 "开门红"的经济:结构如何 2025 年一季度经济数据点评 本报告导读: 一季度经济中生产、消费、投资全面改善,政策受益板块表现更加强劲,下阶段预 计积极政策会继续逐步发力稳增长。 李林芷(分析师) 021-38676666 S0880525040087 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 S0880525040019 投资要点: (券研究报生 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏观研究 / 2025.04.17 登记编号 y 登记编号 公观专 ● 2025年一季度经济实现"开门红",GDP 实际同比增长 5.4%,与去 年四季度持平且高于年度增长目标。一方面,促消费、稳地产等政 策叠加春节假期效应,居民各类需求集中性释放;另一方面,外需 仍有韧性,尤其是3月"抢出口"现象再现,对国内生产有一定支 撑。 从分项看,生产、消费、投资增速均有回升,这主要是由于消费补 O 贴、地产托底政策支撑,叠加春节假期效应共振。下一阶段,预计 政策仍会继续逐步积极发力稳增长。 O 风险提示:贸易摩擦影响超预期,海外经济不确定风险。 国泰海通证券 GUOTAI HAITONG SECURIT ...

策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.16 略 研 究 "中国版平准基金"的加法与方向 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 本报告导读： 中央汇金明确资本市场"国家队"、"平准基金"的定位，起到了稳定指数、提振信 心的积极效果。在大盘价值板块持续布局外，其在科技成长方向的定价权也在攀升。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 A 股 策 略 专 题 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880520120005 黄维驰(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880520110005 [Table_Summary] 在外部环境扰动的背景下，"中国版平准基金"的入市起到了稳定指数、 提振信心的积极作用。近期，中央汇金公司明确表示将发挥类"平准基 金"作用，看好中国资本市场发展前景，并再次增持指数基金。这一举 措不仅向市场传递了底线思维信号，还凝聚了市场共识，推动投资者从 短期波动中聚焦长期价值。中央汇金公司作为资本市场的"国家队"， 其增持行为有利于快速稳定市场情绪，助力市场底部企稳。此外，央行 也明确表示，必要时将向中央汇金公司提供充 ...