债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.24 压力测试下转债具备韧性 [Table_Authors] 顾一格(分析师) 转债事件点评 债 券 本报告导读： 预计未来一到两周，转债市场预计将延续震荡格局，为年末行情夯实基础。建议利 用市场震荡进行布局，耐心等待"春季躁动"行情的展开。 投资要点： | | 021-38038201 | | --- | --- | | | guyige@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522120006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 REIT 打新策略数据跟踪 2025.10.29 买卖国债如何理解：从"长"计议 2025.10.28 把握反击窗口期 2025.10.26 不惧扰动，保持定力 2025.10.20 存款流向非银为何减速——9 月金融数据点评 2025.10.16 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 研 究 事 件 点 评 [Table_Summary] 过去一周（11 月 17 日-11 月 21 日），A 股市场经历了全线深度调 整，转债相对具备韧性。此次调整主要受内外因素交织影响。外部 而言，市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 13.44 CNY based on a PE of 11.79 for 2025 [13]. Core Insights - The company is actively responding to legal challenges, specifically a lawsuit from Ajinomoto Co., Inc., with an involved amount of 130 million CNY for two cases [13]. - The consolidation of Xiehe Fermentation is expected to enhance earnings, with an estimated increase in non-recurring income of approximately 780 million CNY for the fiscal year 2025 [13]. - The company is accelerating its overseas capacity expansion, having successfully completed the acquisition of Xiehe Fermentation's related businesses, which will enhance its product pipeline and international market presence [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline slightly from 27,761 million CNY in 2023 to 25,069 million CNY in 2024, before recovering to 30,048 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 4.5% from 2024 to 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 3,181 million CNY in 2023 to 2,740 million CNY in 2024, with a recovery to 3,728 million CNY by 2027 [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.14 CNY in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 9.09 [4][14]. Market Data - The current stock price is 10.37 CNY, with a market capitalization of 29,080 million CNY [6][7]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of 9.14 CNY to 11.65 CNY [7]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 5.75 CNY, resulting in a price-to-book ratio of 1.8 [8].

Group 1: Cross-Asset Overview - Global risk appetite has decreased, leading to a synchronized decline in both equity and commodity markets. As of the week ending November 21, the VIX and MOVE indices have shown significant increases, indicating heightened market volatility. Major global stock indices have generally retreated, with technology and growth sectors underperforming. Precious metals and crude oil have also recorded declines, while the Chinese bond market saw a slight increase. The US dollar index has surpassed 100, and the Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, approaching the 160 mark against the dollar [7][12][40]. Group 2: Equity Market Performance - The technology sector has faced notable declines, with the MSCI Global Index down by 2.5%. In developed markets, US stock indices experienced a slight rebound due to dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, but overall, they closed lower for the week. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell by 1.9%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 2.7%. European indices also retreated, with the STOXX50 down by 3.1% and the German DAX by 3.3%. In the emerging markets, the A-share small-cap, ChiNext, and STAR Market indices fell more than the overall A-share index, which was down by 5.1%. Conversely, the Russian RTS index surged by 9.1% [20][27][40]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The Chinese bond market is characterized by a "bear steepening" yield curve, with the overall yield curve shifting upward. The 10Y-2Y yield spread has widened, indicating a marginal increase in long-term yields. In contrast, the US bond market is exhibiting a "bull steepening" trend, with the yield curve moving downward. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to 71%, reflecting a shift in market expectations [40][42][51]. Group 4: Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity prices have generally declined, with the South China and CRB commodity indices falling by 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively. Among 13 major commodity futures, only three recorded price increases, with iron ore leading the gains. The US dollar index has risen by 0.9%, surpassing 100, while the Japanese yen has depreciated by 1.2%, nearing the 160 mark against the dollar. This depreciation benefits Japanese exporters but increases inflationary pressures [4][12][40].

策 略 研 究 噤若寒蝉：风偏下行压制全球权益表现 [Table_Authors] 王子翌(分析师) 战术性资产配置周度点评（20251124） 本报告导读： [Table_Report] 相关报告 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们建议战术性超配 A/H 股，战术性标 配美股、美债、黄金与人民币。 鸽声渐起：超配权益待新高，债券迎配置时机 2025.08.24 各项大类资产本周波动较大，国内资产 BL 策略 本周录得正收益 2025.04.16 引火烧身：特朗普政策反复削弱美元信用 2025.04.14 美债遭遇抛售潮，A 股消费风格估值回升 2025.04.13 紧急避险：关税战争压制全球风险偏好 2025.04.07 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.24 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | | 021-38038293 | | --- | --- | | | wangziyi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050004 | | | 方奕(分析师) | | | 021-38031658 | | | fangyi2 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the AI industry Core Insights - The AI industry is witnessing significant advancements, with China emerging as the largest provider of open-source AI models globally, as highlighted by a statement from an academic expert [16] - Major companies like Alibaba and BMW are making strides in AI technology, with Alibaba launching the Qwen App and BMW introducing its self-developed AI platform "GAIA" in China [7][15] - The AI sector is experiencing a surge in applications, including AI-powered educational tools and digital assistants, indicating a trend towards commercialization of AI technologies [10][14] Summary by Sections AI Industry Dynamics - Zhejiang Commercial Bank has formed a strategic partnership with Alibaba to enhance financial services through AI and cloud technology [6] - BMW has launched its self-developed AI platform "GAIA" in China, aiming to democratize AI capabilities across its organization [7] - The Kimi K2 Thinking model has been integrated into the Perplexity AI search application, marking a significant achievement for domestic AI models [8] - The "2025 AI+" conference was held in Beijing, leading to the establishment of the Beijing AI Association to foster collaboration and innovation in the AI sector [9] AI Application Insights - Shanghai Steel Union has developed the "Xiao Gang" digital assistant using AIGC technology, marking a step towards the commercialization of AI models [10] - Youdao has upgraded its audio and video translation capabilities with a new AI workflow system [11] - The "HKChat" app has been launched in Hong Kong, providing comprehensive AI-driven life services [13] - Zebra has introduced its first AI foreign teacher product, enhancing English learning for children [14] AI Large Model Insights - Alibaba's Qwen App has been launched, achieving over 600 million downloads and showcasing competitive performance against top global AI models [15] - China is recognized as the largest provider of open-source AI models, with notable models like Qwen and DeepSeek ranking highly in evaluations [16] - Gartner's report indicates that Huya Engine leads the global challengers quadrant in AI application development platforms, with Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud also recognized [17] Technology Frontiers - Alibaba's first AI glasses, the Quark AI Glasses S1, have been pre-sold over 6,000 units, featuring advanced optical technologies [20] - Ant Group has open-sourced the Awex framework for high-performance reinforcement learning, addressing key challenges in parameter synchronization [22] - The launch of the "Hongjun" humanoid robot by Yifei Technology showcases advancements in robotics with multi-modal capabilities [23] - The CHASING L1 Ultra, a smart pool cleaning robot, represents a significant technological leap in the cleaning industry by integrating AI vision and laser radar [24]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.24 聚焦中药创新，系列产品加速推广 方盛制药(603998) 方盛制药首次覆盖 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 张澄(分析师) | 010-58067988 | zhangcheng5@gtht.com | S0880525040130 | | 彭娉(分析师) | 021-23185619 | pengping@gtht.com | S0880525040080 | | 郑琴(分析师) | 021-23219808 | zhengqin@gtht.com | S0880525040108 | | 余文心(分析师) | 021-38676666 | yuwenxin@gtht.com | S0880525040111 | 本报告导读： 公司业务以中药创新药为核心，重点打造心脑血管、骨骼肌肉与儿童用药等多品类 产品系列矩阵，近年来医疗等非核心主业逐步剥离，重点产品集采后快速入院放量。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [6][9]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on growth and market share, steadily expanding its store count to lay a solid foundation for long-term development [2][9]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and gross merchandise volume (GMV) for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 15.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 50.2% [9]. - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on profit margins due to a significant increase in delivery costs, which has impacted operating profit margins [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 24,903 million RMB - 2024: 34,475 million RMB (growth of 38.44%) - 2025E: 50,340 million RMB (growth of 46.02%) - 2026E: 59,811 million RMB (growth of 18.82%) - 2027E: 66,341 million RMB (growth of 10.92%) [4] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 2,848 million RMB - 2024: 2,932 million RMB (growth of 2.94%) - 2025E: 3,853 million RMB (growth of 31.44%) - 2026E: 4,713 million RMB (growth of 22.30%) - 2027E: 5,320 million RMB (growth of 12.90%) [4] - The company’s operating profit margin (OPM) for Q3 2025 was reported at 17.5%, a decrease of 6.0 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Store Expansion and Sales Performance - As of Q3 2025, the company operates 29,214 stores, an increase of 36.88% year-on-year, with a net addition of 3,008 stores in Q3 [9]. - Same-store sales for self-operated stores increased by 14.4% in Q3 2025, driven by a surge in demand from delivery services [9]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The company is facing challenges with rising delivery costs, which have negatively impacted profit margins. The delivery cost ratio increased to 18.90%, a year-on-year increase of 9.79% [9]. - The company plans to optimize its cost structure through refined operations and digital capabilities to maintain healthy profit margins despite rising costs [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a continued upward trend in liquid argon prices, while rare gases are experiencing low price fluctuations. The weekly operating load rate for China's industrial gas sector has slightly increased. Notable events include the commissioning of a 45,000 standard cubic meters per hour oxygen air separation unit by Messer in Xichang and a strategic cooperation agreement between Shaanxi鼓 Group and Dalian Hope Group [3][4] Summary by Sections Price Trends - Liquid argon has an average price of 859 RMB/ton, showing a 3.62% increase week-on-week and a 26.13% increase year-on-year. In contrast, liquid oxygen and liquid nitrogen prices have decreased by 3.3% and 1.6% respectively [4][6] - Rare gases show varied price movements: high-purity helium in bundles remains stable, while bottled high-purity helium (40L) increased by 0.89% week-on-week. Xenon and krypton prices have decreased by 3.08% and remained stable respectively [4][6] Operating Load Rates - The average weekly operating load rate for China's industrial gas sector is reported at 69.72%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points [4][7] Important Events - Messer has successfully commissioned a new large air separation unit in Xichang, increasing its total oxygen production capacity in the region to over 100,000 standard cubic meters per hour. Additionally, Shaanxi鼓 Group has entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Dalian Hope Group [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the innovative pharmaceutical and medical device industry chain [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing high prosperity, with a recommendation for companies like Heng Rui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Sanofi Pharmaceutical, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and Enhua Pharmaceutical to maintain an "Overweight" rating. The report also suggests that Biopharma/Biotech companies such as Kelun Biotech, BeiGene, Baillie Gifford, Yimeng Biotech, Jingxin Pharmaceutical, Teva Biotech, WuXi Biologics, and Ailisi should also be rated "Overweight" as their innovative pipelines are gradually being realized and their performance is entering a growth phase. Additionally, it recommends CXO and upstream pharmaceutical companies like Haoyuan Medicine, Baipusais, WuXi AppTec, WuXi AppTec, and Tigermed to maintain an "Overweight" rating. The report highlights leading medical device companies such as United Imaging, Lepu Medical, Spring Medical, and Huatai Medical as having potential for recovery, also maintaining an "Overweight" rating [5][6]. Summary by Sections - **A-Share Market Performance**: In the third week of November 2025, the A-share pharmaceutical sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 3.9% and the SW Pharmaceutical and Biological Index declining by 6.9%, ranking 23rd among Shenwan's primary industries [7][9]. - **Hong Kong and US Market Performance**: The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector also underperformed, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index and the Hong Kong Biotechnology Index both down by 7.5%, while the US healthcare sector outperformed, with the S&P Healthcare Select Sector Index rising by 1.8% [17]. - **Valuation Metrics**: As of November 21, 2025, the pharmaceutical sector's premium level relative to the entire A-share market is at a normal level, with a current relative premium rate of 71.8% [13][16].

- The SAR indicator shows that the Wind All A Index broke below the reversal point on November 17, indicating a bearish signal for the market[3][10][13] - The moving average strength index, calculated using Wind secondary industry indices, scored 80, placing it at the 25.9% percentile since 2023, suggesting further downside potential in the market[3][10][13] - The sentiment model, constructed using factors related to limit-up and limit-down board data, scored 0 out of 5, indicating weak market sentiment. Both the trend model and weighted model signals are negative[3][10][13] Sentiment Model Construction - **Name**: Sentiment Model - **Construction Idea**: The model uses limit-up and limit-down board data to measure market sentiment strength[10][13] - **Detailed Process**: Factors such as net limit-up ratio, next-day return after limit-down, limit-up board ratio, limit-down board ratio, and high-frequency board trading returns are calculated to derive the sentiment score[13] - **Evaluation**: The sentiment model indicates weak market sentiment, with a score of 0 out of 5[10][13] Sentiment Model Backtest Results - **Sentiment Model**: Sentiment score = 0[13] Factor Crowding Observations - **Name**: Factor Crowding Metrics - **Construction Idea**: Factor crowding is measured to predict potential factor failure due to excessive capital tracking or investing in specific factors[14] - **Detailed Process**: Metrics such as valuation spread, pairwise correlation, long-term return reversal, and factor volatility are used to calculate crowding levels for common factors like small-cap, low valuation, high profitability, and high growth[14][15] - **Evaluation**: Low valuation factor shows the highest negative crowding score (-0.69), indicating potential instability, while small-cap factor has a positive crowding score (0.39), suggesting moderate stability[15][17] Factor Crowding Backtest Results - **Small-cap Factor**: Crowding score = 0.39[15][17] - **Low Valuation Factor**: Crowding score = -0.69[15][17] - **High Profitability Factor**: Crowding score = -0.02[15][17] - **High Growth Factor**: Crowding score = 0.05[15][17]