市场化改革及财富管理引领，ROE 向上拐点 兴业证券(601377) 兴业证券更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 吴浩东(分析师) | 010-83939780 | wuhaodong@gtht.com | S0880524070001 | 本报告导读： 公司当前推进市场化改革，有望进一步发挥财富管理优势，ROE迎来向上拐点，维 持"增持"评级。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 10,627 | 12,354 | 12,207 | 13,994 | 15,255 | | (+/-)% | -0.3% | 16.2% | -1.2% | 14.6% | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yum China (9987) is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Same-store sales continue to show positive growth, with KFC's transaction average stabilizing [2] - The report forecasts a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with a target price set at 500.00 HKD based on a 22x PE for 2026 [10] - The company is experiencing an increase in delivery sales, which now account for 53% of total sales, up from 51% in the previous quarter [10] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 11,303 million USD in 2024 to 14,137 million USD in 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.4% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 911 million USD in 2024 to 1,143 million USD in 2028, with a notable increase of 10.2% in 2024 [4] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 19.02 in 2025 to 14.32 in 2028, indicating improving valuation metrics [4] Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.823 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 9% [10] - Operating profit for Q4 2025 was 187 million USD, up 25% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 6.6% [10] - The total number of stores reached 18,101 by the end of 2025, marking a 10% year-on-year increase [10] Profitability Metrics - The restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0% in Q4 2025, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by reduced costs in food, packaging, and rent [10] - KFC's restaurant profit margin was 14.0%, while Pizza Hut's was 9.9%, both showing improvements compared to the previous year [10]

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.05 如何择时股债对冲效率 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 寻找跨资产定价的共振系数 本报告导读： 对冲效率看联动强度，联动强度看风险溢价。股息率是适合跟踪的风险溢价信号， 关键看股息率的边际变动。 投资要点： | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙飞帆(研究助理) | | | 021-23185647 | | | sunfeifan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125042242 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 "做陡曲线"还是"宏观对冲"，基金参与国债期 货的两面 2026.02.01 如何理解 ONRRP 类工具与双向隔夜回购 2026.01.30 承接"存款搬家"，理财投了什么，收益如何 2026.01.30 债券 ETF 规模跃升之后：业绩归因、策略优化与 未来挑战 2026.01.29 强者恒强，关注业绩筑底走向 2026.01.27 证 券 研 究 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the fiber optic cable industry [1]. Core Insights - The fiber optic industry is experiencing a significant price increase trend, driven by a surge in demand due to computational power competition and the growth of special and multimode fibers. The export performance of fiber optic cables is strong, confirming the industry's upward pricing trend [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Fiber Optic Industry Cycle and Price Trends - After being under pressure in the first half of last year, the price of fiber optic cables has been gradually recovering, particularly with increased demand for G657A2 overseas, leading to a reduction in G652D supply and longer delivery times. The price of G652D fiber has seen significant increases, with expectations for continued price hikes as major telecom operators prepare for procurement [8][9]. 2. Factors Driving Price Increases - The demand for fiber optic cables is continuously growing, with G652D fiber experiencing a structural shortage. Prices have risen significantly, with the latest market quotes reaching 30-40 yuan per core kilometer, reflecting a more than 50% increase over the previous year [16][22]. - The competition for computational power is a core driver of fiber demand, with data centers requiring significantly more fiber than traditional setups. The global demand for fiber optic cables is expected to increase by 75.9% in 2025, particularly for high-end products like G.654.E and OM5 multimode fibers [20][22]. - The supply side is constrained, with a slow growth in global fiber preform capacity and a shift towards high-demand AI and specialty fibers, leading to a more orderly supply of traditional products [30]. 3. Export Performance and Growth Opportunities - The export of fiber optic cables has become a crucial growth point for companies in the industry, with significant increases in overseas demand. In 2025, the total export volume of fiber optic products reached 454,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, with export value rising by 44.1% [12][10]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading domestic fiber optic manufacturers such as Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company, Hengtong Optic-Electric Co., Ltd., and Zhongtian Technology Co., Ltd., which are expected to benefit from the price increase trend and growing demand [51].

Economic Structure Insights - The primary industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region remains below 10% of GDP, with a slow decline observed from 2019 to 2024[10] - The secondary industry is also below 40%, with notable differences among provinces; Hebei and Tianjin maintain over 30% while Beijing is below 20%[16] - The tertiary industry has become the dominant sector, exceeding 50% in all provinces, with Beijing reaching 85.27% in 2024, an increase of 0.96 percentage points since 2019[21] Regional Development Strategies - Beijing focuses on high-end industries, with the information transmission and software services sector as a key pillar, contributing 22.2% to GDP in 2024[47] - Tianjin emphasizes application scenarios to empower industrial chains, with the information technology application innovation industry as a leading sector[5] - Hebei aims to accommodate industrial transfers with a focus on traditional industries like steel and emerging sectors such as biomedicine[5] Future Industry Focus - Beijing's "2441" high-precision industry system targets strategic emerging industries, including integrated circuits and artificial intelligence, with a projected scale of nearly 6 trillion yuan by 2024[39] - Tianjin's modern industrial system upgrade includes biomedicine as a top emerging industry, with significant early investments in biomanufacturing[5] - Hebei's strategic plan highlights biomedicine as a priority emerging industry, alongside traditional sectors like steel[5] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include policy implementation delays, ineffective coordination mechanisms, and economic slowdown, which could hinder regional development and industrial opportunities[5]

Strategy Research - The macroeconomic landscape shows a divergence in performance, with strong demand for technology hardware driven by AI infrastructure investment, while chemical prices remain robust due to supply constraints [2][3] - High-end liquor prices are stabilizing, indicating some recovery in consumer spending, although the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [3][4] Food and Beverage Research - The company Sobo Protein is expected to maintain rapid profit growth in Q4 2025, with projected net profit for 2025 ranging from 178 to 191 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.89% to 57.62% [8][36] - The company is focusing on high-end manufacturing and energy optimization, which is expected to enhance profitability [37] Automotive Research - The Robotaxi market in China is projected to reach a value of 50 billion yuan, with hardware cost reductions and software iterations driving demand [11][29] - The commercial viability of Robotaxi is approaching a critical point, with both L2 and L4 participants accelerating market penetration [11][29] Consumer Sector - The price of high-end liquor, such as Moutai, has increased by 3.9% for original and 3.0% for bulk, likely due to pre-holiday gifting demand [4][16] - The real estate market remains weak, with significant declines in transaction volumes across major cities, although policies to stabilize the market are being implemented [4][16] Technology and Manufacturing - The price of DRAM storage has shown signs of stabilization, with a slight decrease in DDR4 prices and a slight increase in DDR5 prices, while overall prices remain high [5][17] - Chemical prices continue to be strong, with PX prices increasing by 5.2% [5][17] Logistics and Transportation - Passenger transport demand remains stable ahead of the holiday season, with a slight increase in logistics demand reflected in highway and rail freight volumes [18] - Shipping rates have shown mixed trends, with domestic port throughput increasing, indicating a potential recovery in export activity [18] Industry Tracking: Machinery - The company Hangzhou Steam Turbine has signed its first commercial contract for a self-developed gas turbine, marking a significant step towards industrial application [19][20] - The company is also advancing its "B to A" strategy to enhance financing channels for high-investment R&D projects [21] Industry Research: Pharmaceuticals - The total market value of publicly held pharmaceutical stocks decreased from 397.7 billion to 316.1 billion yuan, indicating a decline in investor confidence [23][24] - The chemical preparation sector remains the largest segment within pharmaceutical holdings, accounting for 37.5% of total holdings [23] Industry Research: Information Technology - The median profit growth for computer companies is significantly higher than revenue growth, indicating a trend of improving profitability despite stagnant sales [25][26] - A notable number of companies are experiencing significant profit declines, highlighting a polarized performance within the sector [26][28]

燃启寰宇智，气贯全球芯（更新） 潍柴动力(000338) 潍柴动力（000338.SZ）AIDC 发电设备深度报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 张予名(研究助理) | 021-23154145 | zhangyuming@gtht.com | S0880125042241 | 本报告导读： 新兴的 AIDC 发电设备——往复式燃气发电机组、SOFC 将是潍柴动力的重要业绩 增长点。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 213,958 | 215,691 | 236,480 | 258,350 | 277,184 | | (+/-)% | 22.2% | 0.8% | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ASML is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant surge in demand for ASML's products, with Q4 orders exceeding expectations and a positive revenue guidance for 2026, driven by increased EUV capacity and a favorable pricing environment for lithography machines [3][11] - The company is expected to benefit from a long-term trend of increasing lithography intensity, particularly in the context of AI infrastructure investments [3][11] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for ASML are adjusted as follows: FY2026E at €37.126 billion, FY2027E at €45.428 billion, and FY2028E at €46.648 billion, reflecting growth rates of 13.6%, 22.4%, and 2.7% respectively [5][11] - GAAP net profit estimates have been revised to €11.207 billion for FY2026E, €14.707 billion for FY2027E, and €15.383 billion for FY2028E, indicating growth rates of 16.6%, 31.2%, and 4.6% respectively [5][11] - The projected PE ratio for FY2027 is set at 38x, leading to a target price of $1675 for ASML shares [11][12] Order and Revenue Insights - In Q4, ASML reported revenue of €9.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with equipment sales contributing €7.6 billion, including 14 EUV and 37 ArFi systems [11] - New orders reached €13.158 billion in Q4, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 85.6%, with 56% of orders from memory customers and 44% from foundry customers [11] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the demand from data centers and AI-related infrastructure is driving simultaneous growth in both foundry and memory sectors, leading to increased demand for advanced logic and DRAM capacity [11] - Price adjustments in the downstream market, such as a 15% increase in AWS EC2 machine learning capacity, are expected to provide ASML and other upstream equipment manufacturers with room for price increases [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - In January, the ship price structure showed differentiation, with new ship prices experiencing weak fluctuations while second-hand ship prices continued to strengthen [3][4]. - The global new ship price index stood at 184.29 points in January, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.69% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.19%. Notably, the prices for oil tankers and bulk carriers saw slight month-on-month increases of 0.44% and 0.63%, respectively, while container ship prices decreased by 0.38% and gas carrier prices increased by 1.19% [4]. - The second-hand ship price index reached 195.96 points, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.53% and a month-on-month increase of 2.56%. Prices for second-hand ships aged 5 and 10 years increased by 2.79% and 4.25% month-on-month, respectively [4]. - On the cost side, the comprehensive price index for steel in China was 91.19 points, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.74% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.20% [4]. - Demand-wise, the global new order value in January was $17,784.70 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.75%. The new orders and deliveries in terms of tonnage increased by 26.68% and decreased by 4.70% year-on-year, respectively. In China, new orders and deliveries increased by 134.27% and 8.95% year-on-year, corresponding to global market shares of 66.64% and 61.11% [4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - New ship prices are weak, with a global index of 184.29 points, down 2.69% year-on-year and 0.19% month-on-month [4]. - Second-hand ship prices are strong, with an index of 195.96 points, up 12.53% year-on-year and 2.56% month-on-month [4]. Cost Analysis - China's steel price index is at 91.19 points, down 0.74% year-on-year and 0.20% month-on-month [4]. Demand Insights - Global new orders in January reached $17,784.70 million, up 38.75% year-on-year, with significant increases in China's new orders [4].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.04 印尼削减产量配额，搅动全球煤炭贸易 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 行 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： 印尼出口政策调整，大幅削减产量配额；全球煤炭 2026 年起供给收缩需求抬升，看 好上升周期；2026 年中国进口煤量或将进一步下降，国内煤价有望恢复增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《持仓略有提升，焦炭第一轮提价》 2026.02.02 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260202》2026.02.02 煤炭《Q4 基金持仓持续回升，板块拐点确认》 2026.01.30 煤炭《地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有 望修复》202 ...