数字人民币重大调整,利好金融 IT 和三方支付 [Table_Industry] 综合金融 ——金融科技行业双周报第二十期 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 孙坤(分析师) | 021-38038260 | sunkun@gtht.com | S0880523030001 | 本报告导读： 数字人民币迎利好，允许数币付息和部分准备金制度落地、跨境支付政策落地，利 好金融 IT 和三方支付；部分金融科技行业持续严格监管。 投资要点： 综合金融《数币余额开始付息，供需双向促规模 增长》2026.01.03 综合金融《数币体系升级，规模有望加速增长》 2025.12.29 综合金融《大模型第一股将上市,百融云发布 RaaS 战略》2025.12.22 综合金融《投融资再平衡持续，股权融资逐步回 暖》2025.12.22 股 票 研 究 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 ...

苹果暂停后，2025 Micro LED 涅槃重生 [Table_Industry] 电子元器件 新型显示行业系列观察报告之二 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舒迪(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shudi@gtht.com | S0880521070002 | | 肖隽翀(分析师) | 021-23154139 | xiaojunchong@gtht.com | S0880525040064 | 本报告导读： Micro LED 行业经历了 2024 年"至暗时刻"，2025 年不断解决巨量转移良率问题， 开始搭载在智能手表/AR 智能眼镜上，此外 AI 数据中心光互连的巨大吸引，我们认 为 Micro LED 行业已迎来涅槃重生，并有望在未来不断扩大应用场景、市场规模。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 电子元器件《长鑫科技科创板 IPO 获受理》 2026.01.02 电子元器件《Mini LED 技术的渗透率预计将不断 提升》202 ...

Core Insights - The REITs market is expected to enter a phase of "strong supply and demand," highlighting its medium to long-term investment value, focusing on quality operators to share in market growth [1][5]. Supply Side Summary - Continuous expansion efforts are underway, including broadening the range of original rights holders to include well-governed financial institutions with asset management experience [2][8]. - Encouragement for asset diversification is emphasized, promoting REITs to hold complementary or synergistic asset combinations and facilitating cross-sector asset integration [2][8]. - The establishment of more flexible yield requirements linked to risk-free rates is being researched, with guidelines suggesting that net cash flow distribution rates for real estate projects primarily relying on rental income should not be less than 150 basis points above the 10-year government bond yield [2][8]. Demand Side Summary - The investor structure is anticipated to diversify further, including REIT index funds, public funds, and REIT ETFs, with a push to attract long-term capital from insurance, social security, and pension funds [5][9]. - The market is expected to benefit from significant incremental capital, which may enhance market valuation and mitigate risks [5][10]. Market Performance Summary - The REITs index experienced a decline of 0.49% in the week ending December 31, 2025, with notable drops in consumer and municipal environmental REITs [7][14]. - Specific sector performance varied, with storage REITs declining by 0.07%, while municipal environmental REITs saw a drop of 1.40% [7][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Short-term negative factors are repaired, but medium-term structural optimization is not yet complete. The new regulations on fund fees have a positive impact on the bond market in the short term, and the sentiment in the bond market is expected to recover. Medium and long-term credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds are expected to benefit, while the benefits for short-term bond funds are limited, and bond ETFs may expand in scale but shorten in duration. [1][3][9] Summary by Directory 1. Redemption Fee Regulations Change: Partial Exemption for Bond and Index Funds, Transition Period Extended to 12 Months - On December 31, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission revised and issued the "Regulations on the Administration of Sales Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds," which came into effect on January 1, 2026. Compared with the draft for comments, the official version gives partial exemption for the redemption fees of bond funds and index funds. For individual investors who hold index funds and bond funds for 7 days or more, and institutional investors who hold bond funds for 30 days or more, fund managers can negotiate the redemption fee standards separately. The transition period for adjusting non-compliant existing funds is set to 12 months, which is more lenient and eases potential market disruptions. [7] 2. Impact of the New Redemption Regulations on the Bond Market: Short-term Negative Factors Repaired, Medium-term Structural Optimization Incomplete 2.1 Short-term Benefits: Uncertainty of the Impact of the New Regulations on the Bond Market Resolved, Market Sentiment Expected to Recover - The new regulations were implemented in a more moderate way, significantly reducing the short-term passive redemption pressure on bond funds and providing support for the bond market at the liability end. If the central bank accelerates treasury bond trading and insurance funds enter the market for allocation in the future, ultra-long bonds will be supported to some extent, and certificate of deposit rates are expected to decline slowly. [9] 2.2 Medium and Long-term Credit Bonds/Tier 2 Capital Bonds Benefit: More Obvious Repair of Liability End Stability - The enhanced stability of the liability end of bond funds is beneficial to medium and high-grade medium and long-term, highly liquid credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds. After the new regulations, the benefits to the liability end are more obvious compared to interest rate bonds and short-term credit bonds, and the spreads caused by previous fluctuations are expected to recover. [10] 2.3 Limited Benefits for Short-term Bond Funds, Bond ETFs May Expand in Scale but Shorten in Duration - The exemption threshold for institutional investors of short-term bond funds has been raised from 7 days to 30 days, weakening their liquidity advantage. Funds may flow to money market funds or bond ETFs. However, the current characteristics of the ETF market, such as "expanding scale, shortening duration, and concentrating on the short end," may continue, and long-duration credit bond/Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs may face more instability. [11] 3. Weekly Data Overview of Bond Funds - The ETF market shows the characteristics of "shortening duration and concentrating on the short end." The PCF duration of various ETFs generally shortens slowly. At the same time, the scale of medium and short-term varieties has expanded, and funds have gradually flowed into short-term treasury bond and credit bond varieties. The overall trading volume in the market has decreased in the past week, and trading activity has converged. [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the media industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in the gaming sector [5]. Core Insights - The media index saw a maximum increase of over 40% in 2025, with the gaming index nearly doubling, indicating strong growth potential in the gaming sector [2][9]. - The film market is experiencing a trend of increasing concentration among top films, with imported films leading the box office during the New Year period [18][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Media Index Performance - The media index achieved a maximum increase of 42.24% in 2025, with a notable rise of 30% from January 2 to December 31 [8][9]. - The gaming sector outperformed all other sub-sectors, with a maximum increase of 98.45% in 2025, while other sectors like film exhibition benefited from the Spring Festival, nearing a 50% increase [9][17]. 2. Film Market Trends - The total box office for 2025 reached 51.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with over 1.2 billion admissions [18][20]. - The number of imported films exceeded 100 for the first time in five years, reaching 106, contributing significantly to box office revenues [21][22]. - The concentration of box office revenue among top films is increasing, with a few high-grossing films supporting the market [21][23]. 3. Recommendations for Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies in the gaming sector such as Giant Network, Century Huatong, and Perfect World, which are expected to perform well due to the release of new games and the performance of existing titles [17][27]. - For the film sector, companies involved in upcoming films for the Spring Festival, such as Maoyan Entertainment and Wanda Film, are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [27][28].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the agricultural industry [9] Core Insights - In 2026, the pig and beef cattle farming sectors are expected to reach a cyclical turning point, with clear growth potential in the pet sector and significant opportunities in specialty planting [2][13] - Companies with complete production, sales, and research capabilities in the pet industry are likely to succeed amid competitive pressures [8] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Price: The pig price is expected to remain low in the first half of 2026, leading to continued low profits in the industry [3] - Capacity: Policy and cyclical adjustments are driving capacity reduction, with a focus on cost improvement and growth potential in pig farming enterprises [3][27] - Debt Reduction: The average debt-to-asset ratio for listed pig farming companies has decreased to 56.27%, indicating improved financial health [27] Poultry Farming - White Chicken: The industry is experiencing deep price declines, with a return to supply-demand balance expected to take time [4][30] - Yellow Chicken: Prices may see slight recovery, supported by promotional activities for native chicken varieties [35] Beef Farming - Long Cycle: The beef farming cycle is lengthy, with a fragmented supply structure impacting pricing dynamics [39] - Price Outlook: A supply contraction is expected to support continued price increases for beef from 2025 onwards [46] Feed and Animal Health - Feed: The feed sector is anticipated to see growth in sales, with a positive outlook for 2026 as livestock numbers remain high [49] - Animal Health: Demand for animal health products may face pressure due to low profits in farming, but breakthroughs in key products are worth monitoring [58][59] Planting - Grain Prices: Grain prices are expected to trend upwards, driven by increased focus on food security and innovation in seed varieties [7][64] - Specialty Planting: Opportunities in specialty crops like blueberries and mushrooms are highlighted, with a focus on innovation and market demand [7][70] Pet Industry - Growth Potential: The pet market is thriving, with strong consumer willingness to spend, indicating clear growth prospects [8][13] - Competitive Landscape: Companies with integrated production, sales, and research capabilities are rare and likely to outperform in the competitive environment [8][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [4][21]. Core Insights - The continuation of the "old-for-new" vehicle policy is expected to benefit mid-to-high-end models, with subsidies adjusted based on vehicle price ratios [2][18][19]. - Polestar, a high-end electric vehicle company, secured $300 million in financing, indicating strong interest in the European electric vehicle market [20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of differentiating vehicle models in a competitive market, particularly as the effects of the "old-for-new" policy diminish [21]. Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Market Review - The automotive index rose by 1% in the past week, while the new energy vehicle index remained flat. The automotive parts index increased by 2%, and the commercial vehicle index also rose by 1% [11][12]. - In the past month, the automotive index increased by 5%, with the automotive parts index up by 7% [11][12]. "Old-for-New" Vehicle Policy Continuation - The policy will continue into 2026, with subsidies for scrapping and replacing vehicles adjusted to a percentage of the vehicle price, benefiting mid-to-high-end models [18][19]. Financing for High-End Electric Vehicle Companies - Polestar announced a $300 million investment from Bilbao Bizkaia Kutxa and NATIXIS, highlighting the growing interest in electric vehicles in Europe [20]. Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high cost-performance ratios and emerging technologies, recommending leading firms such as 德昌电机控股 and 豪能股份 [21]. - It also highlights the importance of differentiation in vehicle models, recommending 长城汽车, 上汽集团, and 零跑汽车 [21]. - The report identifies opportunities in the data center power supply sector, recommending 潍柴动力 and 玉柴国际 [21]. - In the automotive parts sector, it suggests investing in耐世特 and 亚太股份 due to their growth potential [21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a projected performance that exceeds the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by more than 15% [4][10]. Core Insights - Major banks, including ICBC, ABC, CCB, BOC, and PSBC, announced that starting January 1, 2026, digital RMB wallets will earn interest based on the current deposit rate, which is expected to enhance the promotion of digital RMB and drive its growth [2][4]. - The introduction of interest on digital RMB wallets marks a transition from a cash-like version (1.0) to a deposit currency version (2.0), addressing previous limitations that hindered user adoption and bank promotion [4]. - The interest policy is anticipated to activate both supply and demand sides of the digital RMB ecosystem, enhancing banks' willingness to promote digital RMB and increasing user interest due to the potential for earning interest on idle funds [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the shift in digital RMB from a non-interest-bearing currency to an interest-bearing asset, which is expected to attract more users and expand the ecosystem [4]. Policy Implications - The interest payment policy aligns with the central bank's action plan, facilitating the integration of digital RMB into the banking system and allowing banks to utilize wallet balances for lending, thus generating interest income [4]. User Engagement - The report notes that the interest incentive will likely increase user retention of funds in digital RMB wallets, encouraging merchants to expand acceptance scenarios and promoting the continuous growth of the digital RMB ecosystem [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that digital RMB is transitioning into a digital deposit currency era, with banks likely to actively participate in its development. Companies providing compatible digital RMB terminal devices and services, such as Lakala, Yika, and Lianlian Digital, are recommended for investment [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 73.08 CNY [5][15]. Core Insights - The company focuses on laser technology for photovoltaic cells, contributing to cost reduction and efficiency improvements in the industry, and is well-positioned to benefit from the expansion wave in the BC (Back Contact) segment [2][15]. - The company is actively expanding into the semiconductor sector, accelerating the launch of new products through multidimensional applications of laser technology [2][15]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1,609 million CNY in 2023 to 3,333 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.9% [13][14]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 461 million CNY in 2023 to 889 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 24.8% in 2027 [13][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.41 CNY, 2.60 CNY, and 3.24 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [13][15]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is a leading precision equipment manufacturer specializing in laser technology, primarily serving the photovoltaic, new display, and semiconductor sectors [13][15]. - Major clients include prominent photovoltaic manufacturers such as Longi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., and JinkoSolar, indicating a strong market presence [13][15]. - The company’s laser micro-etching equipment for BC cells is designed to replace traditional photolithography, simplifying processes and reducing costs, which is crucial for scaling up production [13][15]. Product Development and Innovation - The company is developing laser processing equipment for consumer electronics, new displays, and integrated circuits, including TGV laser micro-hole equipment for advanced packaging applications [13][15]. - The TGV laser micro-hole equipment is capable of processing various glass materials and achieving precise specifications, which positions the company well in the semiconductor packaging market [13][15].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In December 2025, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from November, marking the first time it entered the expansion zone since April 2025[8] - Among the 21 surveyed industries, 16 reported an increase in PMI compared to November, driven by improved trade conditions and proactive inventory preparations ahead of the Spring Festival[8] - The production index and new orders index contributed 0.43 and 0.48 percentage points to the PMI, respectively, indicating a positive shift in manufacturing activity[10] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The new orders index reached 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points from November, marking its return to the expansion zone for the first time since the second half of the year[14] - The production index also increased to 51.7%, reflecting a 1.7 percentage point rise, driven by stronger demand and improved business sentiment[14] - The raw material purchase price index decreased to 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points, alleviating cost pressures for downstream manufacturing[17] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The service sector's business activity index slightly increased to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from November, with significant variation across industries[20] - The construction sector saw a notable rise, with the business activity index reaching 52.8%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points, attributed to favorable weather and upcoming holidays[23] Policy Outlook and Risks - Macro policies are expected to be more proactive in 2026, with early issuance of local government debt limits and investment plans totaling approximately 295 billion yuan[27] - A risk remains in the real estate sector, where demand still needs to be stimulated to support broader economic recovery[28]