Market Overview - The cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market increased to 3.2428 million tons, with a transaction amount of 225.8395 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 30.17% and 23.92% respectively compared to the previous week[18] - The average daily transaction price of carbon emission allowances (CEA) was 69.59 yuan/ton, down by 4.85% from the previous week[18] International Carbon Market Trends - In the European market, EUA spot prices rose by 3.36% to 72.56 euros/ton, while trading volume decreased by 55.17% to 104,000 tons[6] - The EUA futures price increased by 3.35% to 73.22 euros/ton, with a slight decrease in trading volume of 0.07% to 2.87 million tons[6] - In the US market, EUA futures prices rose by 3.33% to 73.21 euros/ton, with trading volume increasing by 0.75% to 136.29 million tons[9] Domestic Market Insights - The trading volume in domestic pilot carbon markets decreased by 64.00% to 211,700 tons, with major trading concentrated in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hubei, and Guangdong, accounting for 97.47% of total trading volume[24] - The average transaction price in Guangdong's carbon market dropped by 4.53%, marking the largest decline among pilot markets[22] Policy Developments - The People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to support new industrialization, focusing on enhancing technological innovation and supply chain resilience[25] - Shanghai's new policy for market-oriented pricing of renewable energy will ensure that all new energy projects will participate in market trading by the end of 2025, promoting a sustainable energy system[28] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may not meet expectations, and there are risks associated with unexpected policy relaxations and climate anomalies[29]

- The Black-Litterman model (BL model) is used for asset allocation, combining investor views with market equilibrium[17][20] - The construction process of the BL model involves adjusting the expected returns based on investor views and then optimizing the portfolio using mean-variance optimization[17][20] - The Risk Parity model aims to allocate risk equally across all assets in a portfolio, rather than allocating capital equally[27][30] - The construction process of the Risk Parity model involves calculating the risk contribution of each asset and solving an optimization problem to equalize these contributions[28][29][30] - The Counter-Cyclical Allocation model adjusts asset allocation based on economic cycles, aiming to reduce risk during downturns and increase exposure during upturns[11][43] - The Macro Momentum Timing model uses macroeconomic indicators to time market entries and exits, aiming to capture trends and avoid downturns[11][60] - The Sentiment Timing model uses investor sentiment indicators to time market entries and exits, aiming to capitalize on market overreactions[67] Model Performance Metrics - **Black-Litterman Model**: Annualized return 6.58%, maximum drawdown 3.18%, annualized volatility 2.15%, Sharpe ratio 1.86, Calmar ratio 2.07[22][24] - **Risk Parity Model**: Annualized return 6.07%, maximum drawdown 3.78%, annualized volatility 2.26%, Sharpe ratio 1.58, Calmar ratio 1.61[31] - **Counter-Cyclical Allocation Model**: Annualized return 7.36%, maximum drawdown 8.85%, annualized volatility 6.12%, Sharpe ratio 1.13, Calmar ratio 0.85[43][47] - **Macro Momentum Timing Model**: Annualized return 7.06%, maximum drawdown 6.60%, annualized volatility 6.06%, Sharpe ratio 1.13, Calmar ratio 1.97[60] - **Sentiment Timing Model**: Annualized return 7.74%, maximum drawdown 24.91%, annualized volatility 17.49%, Sharpe ratio 1.01, Calmar ratio 0.62[67][87]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 29.19 [5][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company focuses on high-quality fat reduction and muscle gain in weight loss, as well as unmet needs in oncology, indicating a globally competitive pipeline in these areas [2][10]. - The company is positioned as a science-driven, clinical-stage biopharmaceutical firm, aiming to provide innovative therapies for metabolic diseases, cancer, and liver fibrosis [20][19]. Financial Summary - The projected financials for the company indicate no revenue until 2025, with expected revenues of RMB 280 million in 2027. The net profit is forecasted to be negative in the coming years, with estimates of -RMB 369 million in 2023, improving to -RMB 190 million by 2027 [4][15]. - The company’s financial ratios show a significant increase in the price-to-book (PB) ratio from 9.66 in 2024 to 429.89 in 2027, reflecting the anticipated growth in valuation as the company progresses [4][11]. Pipeline and Market Focus - The company’s pipeline includes several clinical trials targeting obesity and cancer, with a focus on LAE102, LAE002 (afuresertib), and LAE001, which are positioned to address unmet medical needs in these therapeutic areas [23][24]. - The report emphasizes the growing global market for weight loss drugs, projected to exceed USD 115 billion by 2030, driven by increasing obesity rates and demand for effective treatments [34][32]. Management and Team Experience - The management team possesses extensive experience in the pharmaceutical industry, with key members having backgrounds in leading global pharmaceutical companies, which enhances the company’s capability in drug development and clinical trials [30][25]. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the company is innovating in the "fat reduction + muscle gain" space, which is becoming a critical focus in the weight loss drug market, with several multinational corporations also investing in this area [45][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company's revenue faced short-term pressure in H1 2025; however, profit performance remained strong due to improved gross margins and one-time gains. The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards [2][9]. - The company achieved a revenue of 40.092 billion RMB in H1 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 2.7%. Despite this, the gross margin improved by 1.84 percentage points, leading to a net profit of 2.271 billion RMB, which is a year-over-year increase of 20.46% [9][10]. - The beverage segment showed a revenue of 26.359 billion RMB in H1 2025, with a gross margin increase of 2.5 percentage points to 37.7%. The carbonated drinks segment experienced a revenue growth of 6.3% [9][10]. - The instant noodle business reported a revenue of 13.465 billion RMB in H1 2025, down 2.5% year-over-year, but the gross margin increased by 0.7 percentage points to 27.1% [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024A to 2027E are as follows: 80.651 billion RMB (2024A), 79.618 billion RMB (2025E), 82.494 billion RMB (2026E), and 84.277 billion RMB (2027E) [4][10]. - Net profit projections are: 3.734 billion RMB (2024A), 4.380 billion RMB (2025E), 4.934 billion RMB (2026E), and 5.566 billion RMB (2027E), with growth rates of 19.8%, 17.3%, 12.7%, and 12.8% respectively [4][10]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 17.21 in 2024A to 11.54 in 2027E, indicating an improving valuation over time [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry operating entity loan interest subsidy policies is expected to stimulate consumption potential and enhance market vitality by reducing financing costs [4] - The report highlights the collaboration of two subsidy policies with other measures in the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan," aiming to boost consumption from both demand and supply sides [5] - The fiscal subsidies are projected to lower the financing costs for entities, benefiting retail small and micro loan demand and alleviating credit risks to some extent [5] Summary by Sections Policy Implementation - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have issued specific implementation plans for the subsidy policies, which will be effective from March 16, 2025, to December 31, 2025, for service industry loans, and from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, for personal consumption loans [5] - The subsidy for service industry loans will cover 90% of the interest from central and provincial finances, with a maximum subsidy of 10,000 yuan per entity [5] - For personal consumption loans, the annual subsidy rate is set at 1 percentage point, with a maximum limit of 3,000 yuan for individuals [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that state-owned and joint-stock banks will directly benefit from the policies, enhancing their competitiveness in retail products [5] - It recommends focusing on high-quality regional city commercial banks such as Hangzhou Bank, Chengdu Bank, and others, as well as joint-stock banks with recovery potential and attractive dividend yields like China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank [5] - The report anticipates a trend of increased capital allocation in the sector, although short-term fluctuations are expected [5] Earnings Forecasts and Valuation Levels - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and book value per share (BVPS) forecasts for various banks, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [6] - Specific banks such as China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank are highlighted with their respective EPS and valuation metrics, all rated as "Overweight" [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 9.10 CNY, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 7.88 CNY [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated stable double-digit growth in revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders, with a proposed interim dividend for the first time, increasing the dividend payout ratio by 5.47 percentage points to 25.24% compared to 2024 [2][3]. - The net profit growth forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 13.6%, 13.4%, and 13.3%, respectively, with the book value per share (BVPS) projected to be 9.57 CNY, 10.90 CNY, and 12.28 CNY [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023A is 9,870 million CNY, with a projected growth of 12.1% for 2024A and 10.5% for 2025E, reaching 12,032 million CNY [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is 3,282 million CNY, with expected growth rates of 19.6% for 2024A and 16.2% for 2025E, reaching 4,331 million CNY [5]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 366,582 million CNY in 2024A to 408,249 million CNY in 2025E [14]. Growth Potential - The company is positioned as a rare asset with both stability and growth potential, focusing on small and micro enterprises, with a customer base expected to reach 570,000 by mid-2025 [4]. - The company is actively merging village banks to enhance its market presence, with plans to add 2 and 4 new branches through village reform in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [4][3]. Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.02% as of the end of Q2 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the beginning of the year [13][15]. - The company maintains a high provision coverage ratio of 490%, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [13][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Accumulate" with a target price of 2163.23 CNY [5][12]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in performance in Q2 2025, with total revenue for H1 2025 reaching 91.094 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 45.403 billion CNY, up 8.9% year-on-year [2][12]. - The report indicates that the company plans for a total revenue growth of 9% for the entire year [2]. - The company is actively taking measures to boost market confidence, including product launches and share buybacks [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Guizhou Moutai are as follows: - 2023A: 150.56 billion CNY - 2024A: 174.14 billion CNY - 2025E: 189.78 billion CNY - 2026E: 203.68 billion CNY - 2027E: 217.15 billion CNY - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2023A: 74.73 billion CNY - 2024A: 86.23 billion CNY - 2025E: 92.28 billion CNY - 2026E: 98.78 billion CNY - 2027E: 105.59 billion CNY - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023A: 59.49 CNY - 2024A: 68.64 CNY - 2025E: 73.46 CNY - 2026E: 78.63 CNY - 2027E: 84.05 CNY [4][12]. Market Performance - As of August 12, 2025, the stock price was 1437.04 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 1261.00-1748.00 CNY [6]. - The market capitalization is approximately 1,805.206 million CNY [6]. - The dividend yield is reported at 3.6% [2][12]. Sales and Revenue Insights - In Q2 2025, the revenue from Moutai liquor was 32 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11%, while series liquor revenue was 6.7 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7% [12]. - The company is focusing on capturing market demand and has initiated a share buyback program, completing 5.3 billion CNY of buybacks as of August 4, 2025 [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company with a target price of 42.00 CNY [5][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in visitor numbers due to the opening of the Shenbai High-Speed Railway and the expansion of Changbai Mountain Airport, which are expected to enhance accessibility and attract more tourists [2][40]. - The connection between the popular IP "Tomb Raider Notes" and Changbai Mountain is emphasized, suggesting that the upcoming "ten-year agreement" will further boost tourism and revenue [17][28]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 620 million CNY in 2023 to 1,156 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.4% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 138 million CNY in 2023 to 301 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 340.6% in 2023 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.52 CNY in 2023 to 1.13 CNY in 2027 [4]. Visitor Growth Potential - The report anticipates that the opening of the Shenbai High-Speed Railway will significantly increase visitor numbers, with an expected annual capacity of over 10 million passengers [41][43]. - The expansion of Changbai Mountain Airport is projected to enhance its annual passenger capacity to 1.8 million, further broadening the tourist base [69][71]. Cultural and Tourism Integration - The integration of the "Tomb Raider Notes" IP into the tourism strategy is expected to create a unique cultural experience, attracting a younger demographic and enhancing visitor engagement [17][28]. - Various events and activities related to the "Tomb Raider Notes" are planned to coincide with the second "ten-year agreement," aiming to stimulate interest and increase foot traffic [31][28].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Value Smart Beta Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The Value Smart Beta Portfolio is constructed based on the goal of achieving high beta elasticity and long-term stable excess returns, focusing on the value style[7] - **Model Construction Process**: - The portfolio includes two variations: the "Value 50 Portfolio" and the "Value Balanced 50 Portfolio" - The "Value 50 Portfolio" is designed to capture the value factor, while the "Value Balanced 50 Portfolio" aims to balance the exposure to the value factor with reduced risk through diversification[7] - **Model Evaluation**: The Value Balanced 50 Portfolio demonstrated superior performance compared to the Value 50 Portfolio, with higher weekly and monthly returns, indicating better risk-adjusted returns[4][8] 2. Model Name: Growth Smart Beta Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The Growth Smart Beta Portfolio is constructed to capture the growth style, targeting high beta elasticity and stable excess returns over the long term[7] - **Model Construction Process**: - The portfolio includes two variations: the "Growth 50 Portfolio" and the "Growth Balanced 50 Portfolio" - The "Growth 50 Portfolio" focuses on growth factor exposure, while the "Growth Balanced 50 Portfolio" balances growth exposure with diversification to reduce risk[7] - **Model Evaluation**: The Growth Balanced 50 Portfolio outperformed the Growth 50 Portfolio in terms of weekly and annual returns, suggesting better performance under the balanced approach[4][8] 3. Model Name: Small-Cap Smart Beta Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The Small-Cap Smart Beta Portfolio is designed to capture the small-cap style, emphasizing high beta elasticity and long-term stable excess returns[7] - **Model Construction Process**: - The portfolio includes two variations: the "Small-Cap 50 Portfolio" and the "Small-Cap Balanced 50 Portfolio" - The "Small-Cap 50 Portfolio" targets small-cap factor exposure, while the "Small-Cap Balanced 50 Portfolio" balances small-cap exposure with diversification to mitigate risk[7] - **Model Evaluation**: The Small-Cap Balanced 50 Portfolio achieved the highest returns among all portfolios, demonstrating the effectiveness of the balanced approach in capturing small-cap factor returns[4][8] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Value Smart Beta Portfolio - **Value 50 Portfolio**: - Weekly Return: 2.19% - Monthly Return: 2.40% - Annual Return: 14.90% - Excess Return (Annual): 9.41% - Maximum Relative Drawdown: 2.35%[8] - **Value Balanced 50 Portfolio**: - Weekly Return: 3.14% - Monthly Return: 3.64% - Annual Return: 13.62% - Excess Return (Annual): 8.13% - Maximum Relative Drawdown: 3.99%[8] 2. Growth Smart Beta Portfolio - **Growth 50 Portfolio**: - Weekly Return: 1.67% - Monthly Return: 0.95% - Annual Return: 6.11% - Excess Return (Annual): 2.48% - Maximum Relative Drawdown: 3.61%[8] - **Growth Balanced 50 Portfolio**: - Weekly Return: 2.16% - Monthly Return: 2.22% - Annual Return: 10.54% - Excess Return (Annual): 6.91% - Maximum Relative Drawdown: 6.11%[8] 3. Small-Cap Smart Beta Portfolio - **Small-Cap 50 Portfolio**: - Weekly Return: 3.34% - Monthly Return: 4.45% - Annual Return: 41.08% - Excess Return (Annual): 21.26% - Maximum Relative Drawdown: 6.23%[8] - **Small-Cap Balanced 50 Portfolio**: - Weekly Return: 3.85% - Monthly Return: 4.49% - Annual Return: 31.48% - Excess Return (Annual): 11.66% - Maximum Relative Drawdown: 4.56%[8]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Consumer spending shows improvement in automotive and service sectors, while textile and apparel remain weak due to seasonal factors[6] - CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, with core CPI rising to 0.8%, the highest since March 2024[10] - The overall PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, indicating persistent downward pressure on industrial prices[12] Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - A-share and U.S. stock markets are recommended for tactical overweight due to improving risk appetite and stable liquidity[15] - The strategic asset allocation (SAA) proposal suggests a 45% allocation to equities, 45% to bonds, and 10% to commodities, with an expected annualized return of 9.1%[15] - The tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy anticipates a 55% equity weight, 40% bond weight, and 5% commodity weight, with a projected annualized return of 55%[17] Group 3: Sector-Specific Developments - The Hong Kong IPO market is projected to raise approximately HKD 1,300-1,500 billion this year, with a significant portion from A-share companies listing in Hong Kong[18] - The household service robot market is expected to grow significantly, with various companies showcasing products at the 2025 World Robot Conference[40] - The mini-LED television market is anticipated to reach a 25% penetration rate in China by 2025, with Haier's market share at 29.3% in Q1 2025[41]