Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that Shanghai zinc will experience a moderately strong oscillation, and it is recommended to monitor whether it can break through 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,865 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation was 3,062 US dollars/ton, up 6.5 US dollars [3]. - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc was 201,973 lots, an increase of 6,148 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 15,926 lots, an increase of 3,565 lots [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 95,916 tons, a decrease of 4,431 tons; the LME inventory was 52,450 tons, an increase of 75 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,990 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 23,090 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract was 125 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was 186.85 US dollars/ton, down 64.13 US dollars [3]. - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 19,470 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 16,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production was 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume was 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume was 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume was 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The social zinc inventory was 137,500 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area was 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production was 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production was 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc was 11.64%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc was 11.64%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 10.09%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 9.1%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 3, the State Council conducted its 17th special study on "deeply promoting people - centered new urbanization and focusing on building a new pattern of integrated urban - rural development" [3]. - The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined by 32,000 people, the largest drop since March 2023, with a sharp increase in unemployment among small businesses [3]. - The US ISM services PMI index in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high, with an expected value of 52.0 [3]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - The upstream zinc ore import volume declined due to the worsening internal - external price ratio and increased losses in importing zinc concentrates in China [3]. - Domestic smelters have started winter raw material reserves, preferring domestic zinc concentrates, leading to increased competition and a significant decline in processing fees at home and abroad, squeezing smelter profits and restricting production in some smelters [3]. - Overseas supply remains tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has remained low, imports are at a loss, and the export window is open, expected to turn into a net export situation to ease domestic supply pressure [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening, while the automotive sector shows some bright spots due to policy support [3]. 3.9 Technical Analysis - Open interest has increased along with rising prices, indicating a warming up of the bullish sentiment [3].

Summary of Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The butadiene rubber market this week was mainly affected by news factors of natural rubber and butadiene. With no clear positive factors in the supply - demand fundamentals, downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly. As the production of previously - overhauled enterprises gradually returned to normal, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased week - on - week, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise was slow. In the short term, the production control behavior of enterprises still exists, and the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,400 - 10,900 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 10,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 32,069, a decrease of 6,917; the 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber was 5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber was 3,340 tons, a decrease of 10 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 62.67 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.22 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan was 567.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.25 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 740 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged; WTI crude oil was 58.95 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.31 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market was 7,425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.94 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.97%, a decrease of 1.56 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 47,300 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 54.99%, an increase of 0.73 percentage points; the monthly output of butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 70.19%, a decrease of 2.45 percentage points; the weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was 434 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton; the social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,400 tons, an increase of 900 tons; the manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,900 tons, an increase of 270 tons; the trader inventory of butadiene rubber was 5,540 tons, an increase of 660 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 69.19%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.33%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.42 million pieces, a decrease of 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 51.68 million pieces, a decrease of 8.57 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 39.95 days, a decrease of 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 45.23 days, a decrease of 0.63 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. The production of overhauled sample enterprises gradually resumed during the week, driving the overall capacity utilization rate. In November, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in November was 68.13%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 0.53 percentage points from the same period last year. As of December 4, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. Some tight - supply spot resources were replenished this period. However, due to continuous downstream price - pressing, the trading performance was weak [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Industry Daily Report 2025-12-04 [1] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] - Futures Qualification Number: F03139610 [2] - Investment Consultation Certificate Number: Z0021558 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this week, driven by the replenishment of previous reserve demand, the recovery of compound fertilizer industrial demand, and the promotion of some export demand. Considering the supply reduction caused by the shutdown of some gas - head enterprises and the continuous advancement of downstream reserve demand, the inventory of urea enterprises is expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1660 - 1720 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was 1688 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] - The position of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was 209,271 lots, down 282 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 18,433 lots, up 4,195 lots [2] - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts was 9,353, up 1,588 [2] 3.2现货市场 - The spot prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shandong remained unchanged at 1710, 1680, and 1680 yuan/ton respectively; the prices in Henan and Anhui increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1690 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained unchanged at 357.5 and 397.5 US dollars/ton respectively [2] - The basis of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was - 12 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory was 100,000 tons, unchanged; the enterprise inventory was 1.2905 million tons, down 73,400 tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate was 83.71%, down 0.2%; the daily urea output was 202,400 tons, down 500 tons [2] - The urea export volume was 1.2 million tons, down 17%; the monthly urea output was 5.87127 million tons, up 132,600 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate was 37.06%, up 2.45%; the melamine operating rate was 60.8%, down 1.4% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 44 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was 100 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 3.6287 million tons, down 1.0331 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 31,500 tons, down 500 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 3, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 73,400 tons or 5.38% [2] - As of December 4, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 105,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons or 5%. The current export has a continuous expectation of container shipping, but the container shipping rhythm is still slow [2] - As of December 4, due to the maintenance of some new urea production devices, the domestic urea output continued to decline. It is expected that 2 enterprises' devices will stop production next week, and 3 - 5 stopped enterprises' devices may resume production [2] 3.6 View Summary - The output of urea enterprises was 1.3851 million tons, down 31,900 tons or 2.25% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 81.83%, down 1.88% from the previous period [2] - The compound fertilizer operating rate increased month - on - month, and enterprises continued to produce winter - storage fertilizers. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to increase slightly in the short term. With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand is gradually increasing [2] 3.7提示关注 - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/12/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | | 1585.000 | 51.0↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1090.1 | +11.60↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 +37.90↑ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 494.90 | | 329.90 | +44.30↑ | | EC合约基差 | -200.62↓ | -101.35 | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 34222 | -786↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -155.72↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1483.65 | | 948.77 | -159.08↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 9.57↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1403.13 | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） -0.99 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November, economic indicators may continue to decline, putting slight pressure on the fundamentals and supporting the bond market. However, the central bank's Treasury bond trading volume in November was significantly lower than market expectations. Considering the continuous increase in MLF and outright repo operations, the market liquidity gap is small, and the need to supplement long - term liquidity through direct Treasury bond trading is not urgent. In this context, market sentiment is weak, and Treasury bond futures prices have fallen to the level before the central bank announced bond purchases in October, and may continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.35%, 0.24%, 0.05%, and 1.04% respectively, while their trading volumes increased to 69,656, 34,142, 15,568, and 113,661 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Most of the spreads between different contracts showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2] - **Futures Positions**: T and TF main contract positions decreased, while TS and TL main contract positions increased. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS decreased, while that of TL increased [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Net Prices**: The net prices of most CTD bonds decreased, except for 250017.IB(2y) which increased slightly [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: Yields of 1y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds increased by 0.35bp, 0bp, 0.10bp, and 0.15bp respectively, while the 3y yield decreased by 0.40bp [2] 3.3 Short - term Interest Rates - Short - term interest rates such as silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates, as well as Shibor overnight and 7 - day rates, showed different degrees of increase or decrease [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - In November, the central bank achieved a net capital injection through various tools, including a net injection of 500 billion yuan in open - market Treasury bond trading, 254 billion yuan in PSL, 1150 billion yuan in other structural monetary policy tools, and 1000 billion yuan in MLF, despite a net withdrawal in 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [2] 3.5 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission encourages private enterprises to seize investment opportunities, and the Ministry of Commerce promotes the construction of new consumption scenarios [2] 3.6 Economic Indicators - **Domestic**: In November, the manufacturing PMI slightly recovered to 49.2%, but the composite PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time this year. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and indicators such as social retail sales, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed different trends [2] - **Overseas**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2, and the ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in November, increasing the risk of a decline in the labor market and solidifying the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - On December 4th at 21:30, pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week; on December 5th at 23:00, pay attention to the US core PCE price index for September [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the shock correction of the precious metal market may continue due to some long - profit - taking funds leaving the market after the previous strong rally driven by interest - rate cut expectations. In the long term, platinum prices may maintain strong resilience supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, structural supply - demand deficits, the continuous progress of "platinum replacing palladium", and long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium demand faces significant downward pressure during the "platinum replacing palladium" process in the gasoline purification catalyst field, and the palladium market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. However, the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and the subsequent catch - up rally of palladium prices is expected to continue [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 439.65 yuan/gram, down 2.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 379.25 yuan/gram, down 2.70 yuan. The position of the platinum main contract was 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the position of the palladium main contract was 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 428.00 yuan, up 1.00 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price was 372.00 yuan, down 2.50 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 11.65 yuan/gram, up 3.75 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 7.25 yuan/gram, up 0.20 yuan [2]. Supply - Demand Situation - The CFTC non - commercial long positions of platinum were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; those of palladium were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. Macro Data - The US dollar index was 98.87, down 0.45; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.82%, down 0.03%. The VIX volatility index was 16.08, down 0.51 [2]. Industry News - The US ISM services PMI index in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high. The new order growth declined from a one - year high, and the payment price index dropped to a seven - month low. The employment index rose to a six - month high. The US ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in November, against an expected increase of 10,000. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 11%. The US has invited the Ukrainian delegation to the US for peace - negotiation consultations. The platinum and palladium main contracts fluctuated weakly during the session, with the London platinum spot price significantly corrected and the London palladium spot price relatively resilient [2]. Key Points to Watch - On December 4th at 20:30, the number of Challenger corporate layoffs in the US in November; at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 29th; the US PCE personal consumption expenditure data for September (time to be determined) [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the precious metals industry. 2. Core View The precious metals market was previously boosted by interest rate cut expectations, leading to some long - position profit - taking and causing the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver to oscillate and correct, with increased intraday volatility. Silver continues its strong trend supported by the tight spot market, and the squeeze trading may not ease quickly in the short term. The macro data shows a mixed picture of the US economy, strengthening the narrative of a weakening labor market. Interest rate futures indicate an 89% probability of a Fed rate cut in December. The macro expectation of rate cuts continues to be positive for the gold and silver markets. In the short term, precious metals may maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend after the Fed confirms the rate - cut tone, but short - term correction risks should be noted. The London gold price has a resistance level of $4300 per ounce and a support level of $4100 per ounce; the London silver price has a resistance level of $59 per ounce and a support level of $54 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 953.42 yuan/gram, down 3.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 13424 yuan/kg, down 158 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 197,638 hands, down 161 hands; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract was 27,706 hands, down 3818 hands [2]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai gold main contract was 310,489 hands, up 10393 hands; the trading volume of the Shanghai silver main contract was 2,280,887 hands, down 383516 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 90870 kg, down 3 kg; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver was 654,098 kg, up 27465 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 949.32 yuan/gram, down 0.74 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 13,705 yuan/kg, up 13 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.10 yuan/gram, up 2.54 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 281 yuan/kg, up 171 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1046.58 tons, down 1.71 tons; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,998.55 tons, up 135.40 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 176609 contracts, down 27307 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 37,259 contracts, down 5922 contracts [2]. - **Supply**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total quarterly demand for gold was 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.87, down 0.45; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.82%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The VIX volatility index was 16.08, down 0.51; the CBOE gold volatility index was 21.96, down 0.53 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.63, up 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 72.14, down 1.24 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US ISM Services PMI in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high. New order growth declined from a one - year high, the payment price index dropped to a seven - month low, and the employment index rose to a six - month high. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, far below expectations [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in December is 89%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 11%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 64.8%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 7.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 27.6% [2]. - The US has invited the Ukrainian delegation to the US for peace - negotiation consultations. The US believes the Moscow talks between the US and Russia have "positive significance" for the peace process [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - US Challenger job cuts in November on December 4 at 20:30 - US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 on December 4 at 21:30 - US September PCE personal consumption expenditure data (time to be determined) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 4, 2025, the SM2603 contract was reported at 5,796, up 0.69%, with Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot at 5,520. The EU will ban Russian natural gas imports from autumn 2027. Fundamentally, inventory is rising fast, production is slightly falling, and inventory has risen for 9 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 87,000 tons, and iron - water demand is seasonally falling. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 582 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is 380 yuan/ton. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term trend of bottom rebound and volatile operation [2]. - On December 4, 2025, the SF2603 contract was reported at 5,546, up 1.65%, with Ningxia silicon - iron spot at 5,250, up 50 yuan/ton. From January to November, consumer goods trade - in drove related sales over 2.5 trillion yuan. Market transactions are mainly for end - user rigid demand restocking, and inventory continues to decline this period. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 270 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 565 yuan/ton. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term trend of bottom rebound and volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,724元/吨，环比上涨2元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,446元/吨，环比下跌2元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为634,165手，环比增加6,439手；SF期货合约持仓量为456,023手，环比减少26,448手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 35,230手，环比减少8,566手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 30,529手，环比减少9,615手 [2]. - SM5 - 1月合约价差为50元/吨，环比上涨2元；SF5 - 1月合约价差为38元/吨，环比上涨24元 [2]. - SM仓单为21,116张，环比增加5,265张；SF仓单为13,235张，环比增加1,980张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古、贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格均为5,520元/吨，环比无变化；云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,550元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,300元/吨，环比上涨50元；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,180元/吨，环比上涨30元；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,250元/吨，环比上涨50元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5,499元/吨，环比下跌16.75元；SF主力合约基差为 - 196元/吨，环比上涨52元；SM主力合约基差为 - 204元/吨，环比下跌2元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为32元/吨度，环比无变化；硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1,250元/吨，环比无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为870元/吨，环比下跌10元 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为438.3万吨，环比增加8.7万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为38.09%，环比下降1.04个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为33.41%，环比下降0.40个百分点 [2]. - 锰硅供应为194,775吨，环比减少2,135吨；硅铁供应为107,200吨，环比减少1,100吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为368,000吨，环比增加5,000吨；硅铁厂家库存为71,830吨，环比减少1,220吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.84天，环比增加0.14天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.80天，环比增加0.13天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为121,727吨，环比增加320吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为19,660吨，环比增加117吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.07%，环比下降1.10个百分点；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为87.96%，环比下降0.60个百分点 [2]. - 粗钢产量为7,199.7万吨，环比减少149.31万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 国务院总理李强指出新型城镇化是扩大内需等的重要载体，“十五五”时期发展空间大 [2]. - 经合组织称G20经济体通胀率将从2025年的3.4%降至2027年的2.5%，多数经济体通胀将在2027年年中回归目标水平，OECD经济体公共债务率预计2027年达113%，美国国债规模已突破36万亿美元 [2]. - 欧盟将从2027年秋季开始全面禁止进口俄罗斯天然气 [2]. - 1 - 11月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次，其中汽车以旧换新超1120万辆，家电以旧换新超12844万台 [2].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 4, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Daily Report on the Pig Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Supply is at a relatively high level and difficult to reverse in the short - term, and supply and demand are in a game stage, so prices will remain under pressure overall. Although winter is the peak consumption season for pork, with some regional pickling and sausage - making activities starting sporadically and overall demand improving, the supply pressure persists. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 11,385 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 90,529 lots, down 1,229 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 85 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 42,823 lots, down 1,872 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Prices - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 11,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Jilin Siping is 10,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Guangdong Yunfu is 12,200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The main live pig basis is - 185 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly live pig inventory is 43,680 million heads, an increase of 1,233 million heads. The inventory of breeding sows is 3,990 million heads, up 0.5%. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,060 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The corn spot price is 2,348.63 yuan/ton, up 8.73 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 917.37, up 3.58. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of feed is 29.57 million tons, down 1.717 million tons. The weekly price of binary breeding sows is 1,449 yuan/head, down 4 yuan. The weekly breeding profit for purchased piglets is - 248.82 yuan/head, down 14.19 yuan, and for self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 147.99 yuan/head, down 12.09 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 70,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The weekly average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 13.9 yuan/kg (unchanged). [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,834 million heads, an increase of 250 million heads. The monthly value of catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail sales is 519.9 billion yuan, an increase of 69.04 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Industry News - On December 4, the daily slaughter volume of key provincial sample slaughtering enterprises was 155,535 heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.12%. To meet the annual output target, large - scale farms are expected to continue normal slaughter, and the supply of large pigs from small - scale farmers will increase, so the supply side still faces pressure. [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - The live pig 2601 contract fell 0.83%, and the live pig 2603 contract fell 0.44%, both under pressure from the moving average system. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of breeders and pickling activities. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic sugar market has digested previous negative factors, and the pessimistic sentiment has eased. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate in the future. The delayed start of sugar cane pressing in Guangxi and the faster pressing progress in Yunnan compared to the same period last year, along with the entry of low - priced new sugar from Guangxi into the market, have affected the price of Yunnan sugar. However, the relatively stable prices of processed sugar and beet sugar provide some support for the sugar price in Guangxi [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar decreased by 38 yuan/ton, and the main contract position decreased by 941 hands to 329,240 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 6,915 hands to - 45,977 hands. The number of warehouse receipts was 0, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 183 [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 4,106 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 4,152 yuan/ton. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 5,203 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 5,264 yuan/ton. The spot prices of sugar in Yunnan Kunming, Guangxi Nanning, and Guangxi Liuzhou all decreased, with decreases of 30 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area increased by 60 thousand hectares, and the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi increased by 5.24 thousand hectares to 840.33 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production reached 1,116.21 million tons, with a monthly increase of 5.49 million tons. The cumulative sales of cane sugar in Guangxi reached 602.29 million tons, with a monthly increase of 26.66 million tons. The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan was 241.88 million tons. The total sugar exports from Brazil reached 420.5 million tons, with a monthly increase of 95.92 million tons. The monthly sugar import volume was 75 million tons, and the cumulative import volume was 390 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar was 34.39 million tons, and the monthly production of soft drinks was 1,096.2 million tons, a decrease of 495.5 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for sugar decreased by 0.9%. The 20 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.38%, and the 60 - day historical volatility increased by 0.01% [2] Industry News - As of October 21, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 140,401 hands, an increase of 350 hands from the previous week. The long position was 165,348 hands, a decrease of 8,626 hands from the previous week, and the short position was 305,749 hands, a decrease of 8,976 hands from the previous week. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the ICE fell 0.05 cents or 0.30% to settle at 14.93 cents per pound [2]