Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the domestic supply is tightening due to restrictions on near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal and the current shutdown of oil mills. Import soybean clearance policies also affect near - month supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and a relatively loose supply - demand pattern of Canadian rapeseed restrain prices. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and generally fluctuates with soybean meal [2]. - For rapeseed oil, domestic oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, which supports prices and keeps the basis at a high level. Import soybean clearance policies affect near - month supply, while the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure. The market is affected by the strengthening of soybean oil [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9,130 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2,390 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 611.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 7.4 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5,448 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is 52 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 47 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 220,345 lots, up 15,404 lots; rapeseed meal is 662,451 lots, up 17,751 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 18,486 lots, up 5,499 lots; rapeseed meal is - 45,495 lots, down 5,351 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 3,297 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,440 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,570 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 10,018.75 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7,456.26 yuan/ton, up 97.53 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 770 yuan/ton, down 236 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is 50 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1,450 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 1,330 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 660 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; domestic rapeseed production annual forecast is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed import volume is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 626 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2]. - Oil mill rapeseed inventory is 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - The weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 26.7 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 16.7 million tons, down 0.3 million tons [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 24.6 million tons, down 1.3 million tons [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 0.4 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - For rapeseed meal: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.06%, down 0.38%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.05%, down 0.39%; the 20 - day historical volatility is 13.87%, down 0.12%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 11.59%, down 0.08% [2]. - For rapeseed oil: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.68%, up 0.05%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.69%, up 0.06%; the 20 - day historical volatility is 17.15%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.21%, down 0.78% [2]. Industry News - On January 5 (Monday), ICE rapeseed futures rose more than 1%, but remained in a narrow range since before Christmas. The March rapeseed futures contract rose 6.90 Canadian dollars or 1.14% to 610.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. Key Points to Follow - Monitor the rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from myagricultural.com on Monday, as well as the development of China - Canada trade relations. Also, pay attention to the possibility of opening commercial purchases of Australian rapeseed [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall index is mainly dragged down by the accelerating decline of inventory. Zinc prices have corrected, the Shanghai-London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off-season, with the real estate sector being a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors also weakening. However, there are some bright spots in areas such as the automotive sector supported by policies. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have been fluctuating and adjusting, with dull trading and on-demand purchases. The spot premium is relatively high and stable, and domestic inventory continues to decline. The accumulation of LME zinc inventory has slowed down, and the spot premium remains at a low level. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment has strengthened, but there is resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will adjust strongly, and attention should be paid to the range of 24,100-24,400 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,295 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan; the 02-03 month contract spread is -50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three-month zinc quotation is 3,195 US dollars/ton, up 68 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 230,243 lots, up 22,571 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,432 lots, up 3,069 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 69,793 tons, down 3,170 tons; the LME inventory is 105,850 tons, down 475 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 24,340 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 24,630 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 45 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the LME zinc cash-to-three-month spread is -36.3 US dollars/ton, down 0.05 US dollars. The ex-factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,850 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan; the price of 85%-86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 16,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply-demand balance is -35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply-demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,600 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, up 40,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons. The social inventory of zinc is 113,900 tons, up 5,000 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles; the air conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options on zinc is 19.72%, down 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options on zinc is 19.72%, down 0.36 percentage points. The 20-day historical volatility of at-the-money options on zinc is 17.29%, up 3.34 percentage points; the 60-day historical volatility of at-the-money options on zinc is 11.81%, up 0.13 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's RatingDog Services PMI was 52, maintaining expansion, but new export orders fell back into contraction. Li Qiang emphasized strengthening the dominant position of enterprises in innovation and promoting the accelerated iteration and upgrading of new technologies and products such as robots and drones in expanded applications. Trump warned Venezuela's "interim president" and reiterated the need for Greenland. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in December unexpectedly contracted the most since 2024, dragged down by inventory [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Each major sugar - producing country is in the process of sugarcane crushing, with India's sugar production increasing significantly year - on - year. As of December 24, 2025, Thailand had produced 100.05 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67 million tons. As of December 15, Indian sugarcane had a cumulative sugar production of 779 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28%. In the domestic market, as of the current incomplete statistics, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 2025/26 season, with a large difference in the current sugar extraction rate; 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, 7 more than the same period last year. However, the market expects a significant year - on - year decrease in Guangxi's sugar production in December, and there are large differences in sales volume estimates. Before the release of December production and sales data, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,259 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2; the main contract's open interest is 427,408 lots, a month - on - month increase of 4,843 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 6,005, unchanged month - on - month; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 65,309 lots. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar (within the quota) is 4,085 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 36; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar (within the quota) is 4,131 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 34 [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar (outside the quota, 50% tariff) is 5,177 yuan/ton; the estimated import price of Thai sugar (outside the quota, 50% tariff) is 5,236 yuan/ton. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,340 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10; the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,360 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, a year - on - year increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, a year - on - year increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of Guangxi's cane sugar is 8.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 593.35 million tons. The cumulative production of Yunnan's cane sugar is 4.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 237.4 million tons; Brazil's total sugar exports are 330.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90.3 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within the quota) is 1,226 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (within the quota) is 1,180 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 34. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (outside the quota, 50% tariff) is 134 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 48; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (outside the quota, 50% tariff) is 75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 45. The monthly import volume of sugar is 44 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31 million tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar is 434 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 130.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 42 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1,045.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.5 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.14%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 9.11%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 11.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 [2] Industry News - As of the end of December 2025 in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Guangdong Province was 993,620 tons (1,237,660 tons in the same period last year), the cumulative sugar production was 86,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29,300 tons, the sugar extraction rate was 8.72%, lower than the same period last year, and the sales volume was 17,200 tons. The ICE raw - sugar futures closed higher on Monday, with traders betting that the annual rebalancing of the commodity index would support the market. The most actively traded March raw - sugar futures rose 0.13 cents or 0.89%, settling at 14.73 cents per pound [2]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 139800 | 5700 02-03月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -220 | 110 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 17290 | 530 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 131481 | -3248 | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -49943 | -4234 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 255354 | 72 | | | 上期所 ...

生猪产业日报 2026-01-06 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11810 | 150 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 169630 | -2476 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 918 | 918 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -49421 | 2897 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment is warm, and industrial products mainly rose during the day. BZ2603 closed up at 5433 yuan/ton. Recently, the operating rates of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene have slightly increased, and the domestic pure benzene output has increased month - on - month. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream has slightly increased. The inventory in East China ports continues to accumulate and is much higher than the same period in previous years. The profit of domestic petroleum benzene has recovered from a low level. In January, some devices will be under maintenance while others will restart, and new devices are planned to be put into production, so the domestic pure benzene output is expected to increase slightly. The load of large - scale styrene devices downstream is stable, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable; the overall operating rate of caprolactam is expected to change little; some overhauled devices of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are planned to restart. In terms of cost, the market believes that it will take time for Venezuela's crude oil production to recover, and international oil prices fluctuated and rose yesterday. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5350 - 5520 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene was 5433 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 27 yuan/ton; the main settlement price was 5417 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan/ton. The main trading volume was 9724 lots, a decrease of 6220 lots; the main open interest was 28571 lots, an increase of 797 lots. The mainstream market prices of pure benzene in East China, South China, North China, and Northeast China were 5290, 5300, 5250, and 5233 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 60, 0, 0, and - 3 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream market prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi were 5425 and 5040 yuan/ton respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton in Jiangsu. The spot prices of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) and China (CFR) were 657 and 665.88 dollars/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 9 and 7.28 dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 63.1 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.72 dollars/barrel. The CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 522.5 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.63 dollars/ton [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 75.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%. The weekly output was 43.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 30 tons, an increase of 2.7 tons. The production cost was 4993.25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 115.75 yuan/ton. The production profit was 332 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 131 yuan/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid were 70.23%, 75.52%, 79.73%, 59.81%, and 68.2% respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 0.47%, 1.47%, 1.58%, - 3.17%, and 4.6% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From December 27th to January 2nd, the operating rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.22% to 75.11% week - on - week, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene increased by 1.07% to 60%. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 0.27% to 71.34% week - on - week. As of January 5th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 31.8 tons, a 6.00% increase from the previous period. As of January 4th, the weekly profit of petroleum benzene was 371 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous period [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The current stage of the breeding side is still in a loss state, and the market's enthusiasm for replenishment is still lower than the same period last year, which is beneficial for long - term prices [2] - However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the enthusiasm for culling old hens has slightly slowed down recently. High production capacity still restricts the performance of near - month market prices [2] - Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, near - month contracts may be in a wide - range low - level oscillation state. In the long term, with the expectation of declining production capacity, the performance of far - month contracts is expected to be better than that of near - month contracts. One can lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [2] Summary by Relevant Categories 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3000 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 8 [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 32401 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 12996 hands [2] - The monthly spread (May - September) of egg futures is - 425 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 34 [2] - The trading volume of the active egg futures contract is 231586 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 12061 hands [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 23 hands, with no week - on - week change [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.18 yuan per catty, with a week - on - week increase of 0.07 yuan [2] - The basis (spot - futures) is 179 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 66 [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 112.03 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 2.21 [2] - The national culling laying hen index is 101.18 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 13.26 [2] - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan per chick, with no weekly change [2] - The national new - born chick index is 93.62 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 26.53 [2] - The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan per kilogram, with no weekly change [2] - The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.39 yuan per hen, with a weekly increase of 0.08 [2] - The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 7.9 yuan per kilogram, with a weekly increase of 0.16 [2] - The national average age of culled hens is 500 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 days [2] 4. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.99 yuan per kilogram, with a daily increase of 0.03 [2] - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.61 yuan per kilogram, with a daily decrease of 0.04 [2] - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.72 yuan per kilogram, with a daily decrease of 0.08 [2] - The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, with a weekly increase of 0.09 [2] - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, with a weekly increase of 0.09 [2] - The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, with an increase of 178.74 tons [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7147 tons, with an increase of 124 tons [2] 6. Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.30 yuan per kilogram, up 0.18 from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.88 yuan per kilogram, up 0.22 from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 6.87 yuan per kilogram, up 0.14 from yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.30 yuan per kilogram, up 0.14 from yesterday [2] - The continuous losses of the breeding side have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens culled. The inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved [2]

线订单表现稳定，多选择刚需补货，部分地区仓库库存小幅下降，整体出库良好，预计全国商业库存仍呈 数据来源第三方(wind、同花顺、棉花信息网、棉花协会网)，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 增加之势。不过2026年新疆植棉面积调减预期升温，加之目标价格补贴新周期预期给与托底，短期棉价向 上驱动持续。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 棉花(纱)产业日报 2026-01-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14855 | 200 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20875 | 300 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -180066 | -1730 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -2248 | -130 | | | 主力合约持仓量: ...

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 难以形成需求支撑。成本方面，市场认为委内瑞拉原油产量恢复需要时间，昨日国际油价震荡上涨。短期L 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 塑料产业日报 2026-01-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6579 | 130 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6329 | 89 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6579 | 130 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6618 | 122 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 457863 | 60422 持仓量(日,手) | 507885 | -1038 | | | 1-5价差 | -250 | -41 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 432078 | 8010 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 6, 2026, most yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened, and treasury bond futures declined across the board. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.43%. In December, the central bank's net investment through treasury bond trading was 500 million yuan, lower than market expectations. Domestically, the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December both rebounded and returned above the boom - bust line. Overseas, the US raid on Venezuela and the arrest of Maduro caused geopolitical shocks. The Fed's December meeting minutes indicated a divergence among officials, with most expecting looser monetary policy in the future if inflation declines as expected. Overall, the rebound in December's manufacturing PMI suggests a possible marginal improvement in economic indicators. The new regulations on fund redemptions have relaxed requirements for bond funds, alleviating market concerns and reducing redemption pressure. Interest rates may enter a phased repair window but are still subject to the suppression of a strong equity market and the supply pressure of government bonds in the first quarter. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: On January 6, 2026, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main - contracts decreased by 0.13%, 0.11%, 0.05%, and 0.31% respectively [2]. - **Futures Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of T, TS, and TL main - contracts increased by 1165, 4332, and 14958 respectively, while the trading volume of TF main - contract decreased by 327 [2]. - **Futures Price Spreads**: Most price spreads showed an upward trend [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, and TL main - contracts increased by 3499, 3110, and 3705 respectively, while the position of TS main - contract decreased by 1428. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS decreased by 3807, 701, and 2250 respectively, while the net short position of TL increased by 639 [2]. 3.2 Cash Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of most CTD bonds declined [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 10 - year active treasury bonds all increased, with increases ranging from 0.25bp to 1.38bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - Term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates were 1.2435%, 1.4057%, and 1.4300% respectively. Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates were 1.2630%, 1.4220%, and 1.4650% respectively. The silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates decreased by 0.65bp, 3.43bp, and 1.00bp respectively, Shibor overnight and 7 - day interest rates decreased by 0.10bp, and Shibor 14 - day interest rate increased by 0.80bp [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - On January 6, 2026, the issuance scale of open - market operations was 16.2 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 312.5 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 296.3 billion yuan. The interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In December 2025, the central bank had a net investment of 500 million yuan through open - market treasury bond trading, 1000 million yuan through MLF, and a net investment of 71 million yuan through SLF [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to allocate over 100 billion yuan in funds to support Yangtze River protection projects and will establish a unified cross - regional ecological compensation mechanism in the Yangtze River mainstream [2]. - On January 5, local time, Venezuelan President Maduro was arrested by the US and pleaded "not guilty" in court. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting, and China called on the US to ensure Maduro's safety and resolve the issue through dialogue [3]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - January 7, 18:00, Eurozone CPI preliminary value for December 2025 - January 9, 21:30, US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for December 2025 [5]