拟收购控股子公司江苏奥雷部分股权，助 推防务领域光电产品进一步拓展 核心观点 事件：航天电器董事会决议使用自有资金 5693.33 万元收购中国奥雷持有的江苏奥雷 32.70%股权，本次收购完成后，公司共持有江苏奥雷 96.54%股权。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年业绩预告，由于公司防务产业阶段性需求放缓以及批产任务订单不饱满， 公司的营收受到一定影响，同时考虑到费用存在刚性，调整 24、25、26 年 EPS 为 0.79、1.86、2.32 元（前值为 1.78、2.10、2.60 元），参考可比公司 25 年 37 倍 PE，给予目标价 68.82 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 军品订单下放和收入确认进度不及预期；降价幅度具有不确定性等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 6,020 | 6,210 | 5,043 | 7,375 | 8,915 | | 同比增长 (%) | 17.0% | 3.2% | -18.8% ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time, with a target price of 18.88 CNY based on a 59 times P/E ratio for 2026 [5][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading domestic chromatography manufacturer, entering a new growth cycle, with significant revenue and profit growth expected in the coming years [11][16]. - The industrial purification segment is identified as the core growth driver, with strong downstream demand and plans for new capacity to enhance market share [11][12]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 0.21 CNY, 0.27 CNY, and 0.32 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with revenues expected to grow from 3.15 billion CNY in 2024 to 4.49 billion CNY in 2026 [5][7]. - The report highlights a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% for revenue from 2019 to 2024 and an impressive 86% CAGR for net profit from 2020 to 2024 [25][11]. Company Overview - The company, established in 2002 in the USA, specializes in analytical chromatography and industrial purification chromatography fillers, with a strong R&D and production capability in both fields [11][16]. - The company has a clear ownership structure and has attracted significant strategic investors, enhancing its market position [18][19]. Product Competitiveness - The company’s core products in both industrial purification and analytical chromatography are competitive, with strong performance metrics compared to imported products [11][12]. - The industrial purification segment has rapidly gained traction since 2020, becoming the company's main business and growth engine [25][11]. Market Demand and Growth Potential - There is a robust demand for the company’s products, with a significant increase in early clinical projects and a strong pipeline of late-stage clinical and commercial projects [11][12]. - The report notes a trend towards domestic substitution in the chromatography market, driven by cost pressures and the need for stable supply chains [11][12]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue increased from 0.74 billion CNY in 2019 to 3.15 billion CNY in 2024, with a notable increase in profitability [25][27]. - The gross margin has shown improvement, with the company achieving a leading position in the industry [35][36].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time, with a target price of 18.88 CNY based on a 59 times P/E ratio for 2026 [5][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading domestic chromatography manufacturer, entering a new growth cycle with rapid revenue and profit growth, particularly in the industrial purification segment, which has become the core business [11][25]. - The company has strong competitive advantages in its core products, with both industrial purification and analytical chromatography segments showing robust performance and collaboration with key clients [11][12]. - There is significant growth potential driven by strong downstream demand and a trend towards domestic substitution in the chromatography market, especially in the context of rising cost pressures from drug price reductions [11][12]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 0.21 CNY, 0.27 CNY, and 0.32 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a rapid increase in revenue expected from the industrial purification segment [5][11]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 2.13 billion CNY in 2022 to 4.49 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% from 2019 to 2024 [7][25]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 470 million CNY in 2022 to 1.33 billion CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 86% from 2020 to 2024 [7][25]. Company Overview - The company, established in 2002 in the United States, specializes in analytical chromatography and industrial purification chromatography fillers, and is one of the few companies with R&D and large-scale production capabilities in both fields [11][16]. - The company has a clear equity structure and has attracted significant strategic investors, enhancing its market position and operational capabilities [18][19]. Product Competitiveness - The company’s industrial purification products are primarily used in the clinical research and industrial production phases of drug development, with a comprehensive range of over 100 products covering various separation modes and application scenarios [46][50]. - The analytical chromatography segment has a stable revenue structure, primarily driven by size exclusion chromatography columns, while the industrial purification segment has shown significant growth since 2020 [32][46]. Market Demand and Growth Potential - The company has accumulated a substantial number of early-stage projects, with 106 early clinical projects and 56 late clinical and commercial projects expected to drive demand [11][12]. - The domestic chromatography and industrial purification market has a high concentration and low domestic substitution rate, indicating significant growth opportunities as the trend towards domestic products increases [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [2][6] Core Insights - Alibaba's FY3Q25 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 280.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and adjusted net profit of 51.07 billion yuan, up 6.5% [4][6] - The company is entering a new growth cycle driven by AI, with significant capital expenditure planned to enhance cloud computing and AI infrastructure [4][9] - The report highlights improvements in operational efficiency and a reduction in losses across various business segments, particularly in local services and international commerce [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: FY3Q25 revenue was 2801.5 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus of 2774 billion yuan; adjusted net profit was 510.7 billion yuan, significantly above the expected 455 billion yuan [4][6] - **Taobao Group**: Revenue reached 1360.9 billion yuan, a 5.4% year-on-year increase, with adjusted EBITA of 610.8 billion yuan, up 1.9% [4][6] - **Cloud Intelligence Group**: Revenue was 317.4 billion yuan, a 13.1% increase, with adjusted EBITA of 31.4 billion yuan, up 32.7% [4][6] - **International Digital Commerce**: Revenue grew by 32.4% to 377.6 billion yuan, driven by growth in AliExpress and Trendyol [4][6] - **Capital Expenditure**: FY3Q25 capital expenditure was 317.8 billion yuan, a 258.8% increase year-on-year, reflecting a strong commitment to AI and cloud infrastructure [4][6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for FY2025-2027 are 10046 billion yuan, 11230 billion yuan, and 12545 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1577 billion yuan, 1656 billion yuan, and 1863 billion yuan [6][22] - The estimated market capitalization based on segment valuation is 30703 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 175.10 HKD per share [6][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [2][6][22] Core Insights - Alibaba's FY3Q25 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 2801.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and adjusted net profit of 510.7 billion yuan, up 6.5% [4][6] - The company is entering a new growth cycle driven by AI, with significant capital expenditure planned to enhance cloud computing and AI infrastructure [4][9][22] Financial Performance - Alibaba's revenue for FY3Q25 was 2801.5 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg consensus of 2774 billion yuan [4] - Adjusted net profit for FY3Q25 was 510.7 billion yuan, significantly above the expected 455 billion yuan [4] - The company's capital expenditure for FY3Q25 reached 317.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 258.8% [4][9] Business Segments - Taobao Group generated revenue of 1360.9 billion yuan in FY3Q25, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [4] - Cloud Intelligence Group reported revenue of 317.4 billion yuan, up 13.1% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI-related services [4] - International Digital Commerce achieved revenue of 377.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.4% [4] Future Outlook - The report forecasts Alibaba's revenue for FY2025-2027 to be 10046 billion yuan, 11230 billion yuan, and 12545 billion yuan respectively [6][22] - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 1577 billion yuan, 1656 billion yuan, and 1863 billion yuan for FY2025-2027 [6][22] - The company plans to invest over 3800 billion yuan in AI and cloud computing infrastructure over the next three years [9][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve strong revenue and profit growth from 2024 to 2026, with projected earnings per share of 6.24, 8.45, and 10.83 yuan respectively, up from previous estimates of 6.17, 7.69, and 9.57 yuan [2][8] - The stock price has already reflected short-term negative factors, and the impact of major shareholder reductions is gradually being digested by the market [7][8] - The company is expanding its product line with new sugar tea products and enhancing its digital marketing strategies to boost sales [7][8] - The company is also making strides in international markets, with plans to establish a factory in Indonesia to cater to the Southeast Asian beverage market [7][8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 15,981 million, 20,858 million, and 25,631 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 41.9%, 30.5%, and 22.9% [3][8] - Operating profit is forecasted to reach 4,036 million, 5,607 million, and 7,184 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 55.9%, 38.9%, and 28.1% [3][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3,243 million, 4,395 million, and 5,633 million yuan, with growth rates of 59.0%, 35.5%, and 28.2% [3][8] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 43.1% in 2023 to 48.1% in 2026 [3][8] Valuation - The estimated equity value of the company is 157 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 301.88 yuan per share [2][8] - The report employs the FCFF valuation method, with key assumptions including a tax rate of 25%, a perpetual growth rate of 3%, and a WACC of 6.42% [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [8]. Core Insights - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, reflecting a commitment to stable growth amidst balancing risk prevention [8]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, with a total increase in broad fiscal measures by 2.9 trillion yuan year-on-year, including a deficit rate raised to 4% and an increase in local special bonds [8]. - Monetary policy will continue to adopt a moderately loose stance, with potential for timely adjustments in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates [8]. - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, which is likely to boost credit demand and investment [8]. - The report emphasizes the gradual resolution of risks in development, particularly in the real estate sector, which is expected to improve the banking sector's balance sheets [8]. - The banking sector is anticipated to benefit from increased fiscal support and improved asset quality, particularly in real estate and local government debt management [8]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The GDP growth target for 2025 is approximately 5%, consistent with the previous year [9]. - The inflation target is adjusted to 2%, aligning more closely with current realities [8]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will be more aggressive, with a total increase in broad fiscal measures by 2.9 trillion yuan year-on-year [8]. - The deficit rate is set to rise to 4%, with a total deficit scale increasing by 1.6 trillion yuan [8]. - Local special bonds are planned to be issued at 4.4 trillion yuan, with a focus on investment and debt resolution [8]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose tone, with potential for timely adjustments in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates [8]. - There is an emphasis on supporting key sectors, including real estate and small businesses, to promote healthy market development [8]. Banking Sector Implications - The banking sector is expected to see a significant impact from the implementation of stable growth policies, with fiscal measures supporting credit and economic expectations [8]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: high-dividend stocks and those with improved risk expectations [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music (09899.HK) with a target price of HKD 167.81, equivalent to RMB 154.80 [4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the continuous optimization of its music library and the strengthening of its online music operations, leading to an increase in monthly active users (MAU) [4]. - The introduction of well-known Korean music labels and the promotion of original music are anticipated to enhance online music revenue, with projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 being RMB 1.56 billion, RMB 1.72 billion, and RMB 2.18 billion respectively [4]. - The report highlights a strategic shift towards core music business, with a reduction in social entertainment revenue due to a more cautious operational approach [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was RMB 8.995 billion, with a projected decline to RMB 7.867 billion in 2023, followed by a slight recovery to RMB 8.015 billion in 2024 [6][12]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 734 million in 2023, with expectations of RMB 1.562 billion in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 112.7% [6][12]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 26.7% in 2023 to 33.7% in 2024, driven by increased online music revenue and cost optimization measures [6][12]. Revenue Breakdown - Online music revenue is projected to reach RMB 28 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20%, primarily due to enhanced membership services and content offerings [9]. - Social entertainment revenue is expected to decline to RMB 11 billion in 2024, down 33% year-on-year, as the company focuses on its core music business [9]. Valuation Metrics - The report uses a comparable company analysis, suggesting an average adjusted P/E ratio of 20 times for 2025, which supports the target price of HKD 167.81 [4][10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is RMB 7.21, increasing to RMB 10.06 by 2026 [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 174.20 HKD / 160.69 CNY [3][6]. Core Views - The new games "燕云十六声" and "七日世界" are expected to drive revenue growth for the company. The forecasted net profit for the years 2024 to 2026 is 297 billion, 326 billion, and 348 billion CNY respectively, adjusted from previous estimates due to changes in game launch schedules and sales expense rates [3][9]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 96,496 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 10.15%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 105,295 million CNY, reflecting a modest growth of 1.77% [4][15]. - The operating profit for 2022 was 19,629 million CNY, with a significant year-on-year increase of 19.56%. The forecast for 2024 is 29,584 million CNY, indicating a growth of 6.77% [4][15]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 20,338 million CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 20.65%. The projected net profit for 2024 is 29,698 million CNY, with a minimal growth of 0.96% [4][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2022 was 5.89 CNY, expected to rise to 8.60 CNY in 2024 [4][15]. - The gross margin for 2022 was 54.68%, projected to improve to 62.50% in 2024 [4][15]. - The net margin for 2022 was 21.08%, expected to be 28.20% in 2024 [4][15]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2022 was 20.33%, projected to decrease to 22.59% in 2024 [4][15]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 25 in 2024 to 17 in 2025 and further to 15 in 2026 [4][15].