Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 198.4 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.32 billion yuan, a significant increase of 109% year-on-year [3][11] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 50.6 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 1.61 billion yuan, up 64% year-on-year [3][11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2023A: 174,543 - 2024A: 198,381 (13.7% growth) - 2025E: 223,692 (12.8% growth) - 2026E: 242,846 (8.6% growth) - 2027E: 263,808 (8.6% growth) [6] - Operating Profit (in million yuan): - 2023A: 1,519 - 2024A: 4,931 (224.7% growth) - 2025E: 9,170 (86.0% growth) - 2026E: 13,570 (48.0% growth) - 2027E: 18,707 (37.9% growth) [6] - Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (in million yuan): - 2023A: 2,547 - 2024A: 5,323 (109.0% growth) - 2025E: 8,380 (57.4% growth) - 2026E: 11,471 (36.9% growth) - 2027E: 14,776 (28.8% growth) [6] - Earnings Per Share (in yuan): - 2023A: 0.07 - 2024A: 0.14 - 2025E: 0.22 - 2026E: 0.30 - 2027E: 0.39 [6] Market Position and Product Development - The company remains a global leader in semiconductor display technology, with its LCD products maintaining the highest shipment volume globally [11] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and enhancing its market position in innovative applications, particularly in high-end LCD solutions [11] - The company achieved a flexible OLED shipment volume of nearly 140 million units in 2024, ranking second globally, with a target of 170 million units for 2025 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 30 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 7.1%, and a net profit of 11.9 billion yuan, down 3.1% year-over-year. For the full year 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 123 billion yuan, an increase of 3% year-over-year, and a net profit of 51.6 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-over-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 4.8 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 92%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.69% [1] - The company forecasts net profits of 54.5 billion yuan, 57.8 billion yuan, and 61.6 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.38, 0.40, and 0.43 yuan [2] - The target price for the stock is set at 8.31 yuan per share based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 28.6 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, and a net profit of 11.4 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-over-year [1] - The company’s revenue from elevator media reached 115 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 3.87%, while cinema media revenue was 6.9 billion yuan, down 10.4% [7] - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2024 was 66.4%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-over-year, and the net profit margin was 39.6%, up 1.6 percentage points year-over-year [7] - The company’s historical PE ratio over the past three years has been analyzed, indicating a stable valuation trend [8] Market Position and Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on the acquisition of New Wave Media, which aligns with its core business in elevator media, potentially enhancing operational efficiency and expanding its user base [7] - The company has seen a 13.4% year-over-year increase in revenue from the daily consumer goods sector, contributing 62% of total revenue [7]

| 消费增长的量价拆解——月度宏观经济回 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 顾与展望 | | | 积极迎战外部风险——4 月政治局会议解 | 2025-04-26 | | 读 | | 外贸冲击的衍生影响开始显现——4 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 事件：4 月 30 日统计局公布最新 PMI，其中制造业 PMI 录得 49.0%，较上月下降 1.5 个百分点；非制造业 PMI 录得 50.4%，保持在荣枯线以上。 风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 03 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 198.4 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.32 billion yuan, a significant increase of 109% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 50.6 billion yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.61 billion yuan, up 64% year-on-year [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023: 174.54 billion yuan - 2024: 198.38 billion yuan (13.7% growth) - 2025E: 223.69 billion yuan (12.8% growth) - 2026E: 242.85 billion yuan (8.6% growth) - 2027E: 263.81 billion yuan (8.6% growth) [6] - **Net Profit**: - 2023: 2.55 billion yuan - 2024: 5.32 billion yuan (109% growth) - 2025E: 8.38 billion yuan (57.4% growth) - 2026E: 11.47 billion yuan (36.9% growth) - 2027E: 14.78 billion yuan (28.8% growth) [6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 0.07 yuan - 2024: 0.14 yuan - 2025E: 0.22 yuan - 2026E: 0.30 yuan - 2027E: 0.39 yuan [6] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: - 2024: 15.2% - 2025E: 16.6% - 2026E: 17.6% - 2027E: 18.4% [6] - Net Margin: - 2024: 2.7% - 2025E: 3.7% - 2026E: 4.7% - 2027E: 5.6% [6] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: - 2024: 27.2 - 2025E: 17.3 - 2026E: 12.6 - 2027E: 9.8 [6] Market Position and Product Development - The company remains a leader in the global semiconductor display market, with its LCD products maintaining the highest shipment volume globally. The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and enhancing its market position in innovative applications, particularly in high-end LCD solutions [11] - The company has seen an increase in OLED shipments, with a target of 170 million units for 2025, and has made significant technological advancements in high-end folding products [11] - The company is expanding its influence in the Internet of Things (IoT) market, achieving record sales in high-end TV and gaming products, and has made breakthroughs in self-developed products for educational and office use [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.64 CNY [5][2] Core Views - The industry is at a bottom and is expected to recover, with the company showing resilience despite recent challenges [1][10] - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 to 0.31 CNY, down from the previous estimate of 1.02 CNY, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at 0.39 CNY and 0.49 CNY respectively [2] - The report highlights the company's ongoing development projects, including new production facilities that are expected to drive future growth [10] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 325,112 million CNY, with a projected increase to 326,475 million CNY in 2024, and further growth to 355,946 million CNY in 2025 [4] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline from 1,158 million CNY in 2023 to 724 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 3,131 million CNY in 2025 [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.5% in 2023 to 12.9% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to rise from 0.4% to 0.9% over the same period [4] - The report indicates a significant increase in operating profit from 1,560 million CNY in 2023 to 9,141 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 356.1% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.67 CNY, based on a calculated equity value of 180 billion CNY [3][11][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in its base market, with significant cost control measures yielding results in 2024. The operating profit growth target for 2025 is set at 12% [2][10]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 5.36 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 790 million CNY, up 18.2% year-on-year [10][4]. - The company aims for a revenue target of 5.47 billion CNY in 2025, with a corresponding year-on-year growth target of 2.1% [2][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 5.26 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 5.36 billion CNY in 2024 and further to 5.61 billion CNY in 2025, indicating a growth trajectory [4][14]. - The net profit for 2023 was 666 million CNY, expected to rise to 787 million CNY in 2024 and 890 million CNY in 2025, showcasing a consistent growth pattern [4][14]. - The company's gross margin is projected to be 65.9% in 2024, with a slight increase to 66.6% in 2025 [4][14]. Regional Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 31.2 million CNY in Hebei, 2.1 million CNY in Shandong, 5.5 million CNY in Anhui, and 11.0 million CNY in Hunan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 2.6%, 31.4%, 0.5%, and 12.3% [2][10]. - For Q1 2025, revenues in Hebei, Shandong, Anhui, Hunan, and other provinces were 7.2 million CNY, 0.4 million CNY, 1.3 million CNY, 2.1 million CNY, and 0.6 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.0%, 7.9%, 2.5%, 9.7%, and -36.6% respectively [2][10]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 14.7%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points from the previous year [2][4]. - The company’s operating profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.06 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.8% [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57.29 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the earnings for 2025 [3][11]. Core Views - Short-term growth is under pressure, but the company is expected to achieve healthy long-term growth [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2026 while raising gross margin and expense ratios [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.37 CNY, 3.91 CNY, and 4.46 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 6,771 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 23.0%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to be 7,344 million CNY, reflecting an 8.5% growth [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 2,282 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 33.9%. The forecast for 2024 is 2,589 million CNY, a growth of 13.4% [8]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 73.9%, up from 71.0% in 2023, indicating an improvement in profitability [10][8]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the company expects mid-to-high-end liquor revenue to reach 57.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. However, ordinary liquor revenue is projected to decline by 6.5% to 12.9 billion CNY [10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 20.5 billion CNY, down 12.3% year-on-year, primarily due to an earlier Spring Festival and weak consumer demand [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a total of 1,379 distributors as of Q1 2025, indicating stable channel management [10]. - The company’s regional performance shows that domestic market revenue is 50.9 billion CNY, growing by 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province is 19.1 billion CNY, with a modest growth of 1.3% [10].

- The report discusses the impact of dividends on stock index futures, specifically for the contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices[1][2][3] - The latest dividend prediction model estimates the dividend points for the May contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices to be 0.00, 5.16, 3.54, and 4.58 respectively[7][10] - The annualized hedging costs (excluding dividends, calculated on a 365-day basis) for the May contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices are 5.16%, 8.11%, 15.43%, and 15.39% respectively[7][10] - The report provides detailed calculations of the impact of dividends on the futures contracts, including the remaining impact of dividends on the contracts and the annualized hedging costs[11][12][13][14] - The process for predicting dividends involves estimating the net profit of constituent stocks, calculating the total pre-tax dividends for each stock, and then determining the impact of dividends on the index and each futures contract[24][27][28][29][30][31][32][33] - The theoretical pricing model for stock index futures is also discussed, including both discrete and continuous dividend distribution scenarios[35][36] Model and Factor Construction - **Model Name**: Dividend Prediction Model - **Construction Idea**: The model predicts the impact of dividends on stock index futures by estimating the net profit of constituent stocks and calculating the total pre-tax dividends[24][27] - **Construction Process**: 1. Estimate the net profit of constituent stocks using available information such as annual reports, quick reports, warnings, and analyst forecasts[26][27] 2. Calculate the total pre-tax dividends for each stock based on the estimated net profit and the dividend rate[28][31] 3. Determine the impact of dividends on the index by calculating the dividend points and the weight of each stock in the index[29] 4. Predict the impact of dividends on each futures contract by estimating the ex-dividend dates and summing the dividends before the contract's delivery date[30][32][33] - **Formula**: $$\mathrm{w_{it}={\frac{w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\scriptsize{\boldmath~(~1+R~)}~}}{\sum_{1}^{n}w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\scriptsize{\boldmath~(~1+R~)}~}}}}$$ - \( w_{it} \): Estimated weight of stock \( i \) at time \( t \) - \( w_{i0} \): Accurate weight of stock \( i \) at initial time \( t0 \) - \( R \): Return rate of stock \( i \) from \( t0 \) to \( t \)[29] - **Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to predict the impact of dividends on stock index futures, considering various factors such as net profit estimates and dividend rates[24][27][28][29][30][31][32][33] Model Backtest Results - **SSE 50 Futures (IH2505)**: - **Dividend Points**: 0.00 - **Actual Spread**: -5.96 - **Dividend-Adjusted Spread**: -5.96 - **Remaining Impact**: 0.00% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (365 days)**: 5.16% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (243 days)**: 6.11%[11] - **CSI 300 Futures (IF2505)**: - **Dividend Points**: 5.16 - **Actual Spread**: -18.57 - **Dividend-Adjusted Spread**: -13.41 - **Remaining Impact**: 0.14% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (365 days)**: 8.11% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (243 days)**: 9.60%[12] - **CSI 500 Futures (IC2505)**: - **Dividend Points**: 3.54 - **Actual Spread**: -41.62 - **Dividend-Adjusted Spread**: -38.09 - **Remaining Impact**: 0.06% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (365 days)**: 15.43% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (243 days)**: 18.26%[13] - **CSI 1000 Futures (IM2505)**: - **Dividend Points**: 4.58 - **Actual Spread**: -44.72 - **Dividend-Adjusted Spread**: -40.14 - **Remaining Impact**: 0.08% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (365 days)**: 15.39% - **Annualized Hedging Cost (243 days)**: 18.21%[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.64 CNY, based on historical valuation methods and adjusted earnings forecasts [2][5]. Core Insights - The industry is at a bottom and is expected to recover, with the company showing resilience despite a challenging environment [1][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 0.31 CNY, down from a previous estimate of 1.02 CNY, with projections for 2026 and 2027 set at 0.39 CNY and 0.49 CNY respectively [2]. - The report highlights the impact of fluctuating oil prices and the company's strategic projects aimed at enhancing profitability and market position [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 326,475 million CNY in 2024, with a slight growth of 0.4% year-on-year, and is expected to reach 355,946 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a 9.0% increase [4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline to 724 million CNY in 2024, a decrease of 37.4%, but is expected to rebound significantly to 3,131 million CNY in 2025, marking a growth of 332.1% [4]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.5% in 2024 to 14.0% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is projected to increase from 1.6% in 2024 to 8.9% by 2027, reflecting improved efficiency and profitability [4]. Industry Outlook - The refining industry is anticipated to see a recovery due to regulatory changes and improved operational efficiencies, particularly in the domestic market [10]. - The company is actively pursuing strategic projects in new materials and refining, which are expected to drive future growth and enhance its competitive edge [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.67 yuan, based on a calculated equity value of 180 billion yuan [3][11][5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in its base market, with significant cost control measures showing results in 2024. The operating profit target growth for 2025 is set at 12% [2][10]. - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts due to the ongoing adjustment phase in the liquor industry, predicting earnings per share of 0.97, 1.07, and 1.15 yuan for 2025-2027 [3][11]. - The company achieved a net profit margin of 14.69% in 2024, an increase of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year, with total expense ratio decreasing by 4.12 percentage points [2][10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 53.6 billion yuan (up 1.9% year-on-year) and a net profit of 7.9 billion yuan (up 18.2% year-on-year) [10]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 56.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth target of 2.1% and total operating costs controlled under 43.59 billion yuan [2][10]. - The company’s financial metrics show a gross margin of 65.9% for 2024, with a forecasted increase to 66.6% in 2025 [4][10]. Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue by region was as follows: Hebei 31.2 billion yuan (+2.6%), Shandong 2.1 billion yuan (+31.4%), Anhui 5.5 billion yuan (+0.5%), Hunan 11.0 billion yuan (+12.3%), and other provinces 3.3 billion yuan (+20.7%) [2][10]. - In Q1 2025, revenue from Hebei, Shandong, Anhui, Hunan, and other provinces was 7.2 billion yuan (+8.0%), 0.4 billion yuan (+7.9%), 1.3 billion yuan (+2.5%), 2.1 billion yuan (+9.7%), and 0.6 billion yuan (-36.6%) respectively [2][10]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 0.97, 1.07, and 1.15 yuan, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [3][11]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve to 15.9% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 17.3% by 2027 [4][10]. Market Performance - The company’s stock price as of April 30, 2025, was 17.36 yuan, with a 52-week high of 25.54 yuan and a low of 15.81 yuan [5]. - The absolute performance over the past week, month, and three months showed declines of -1.92%, -6.42%, and -7.56% respectively [6].