基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 硫磺-硫酸继续上涨，关注具有长期逻辑的 涨价品种 核心观点 原油相关信息： ⚫ 原油及相关库存：2025 年 3 月 7 日美国原油商业库存 4.352 亿桶，周增加 140 万 桶；汽油库存 2.411 亿桶，周减少 570 万桶；馏分油库存 1.176 亿桶，周减少 160 万桶；丙烷库存 0.45259 亿桶，周减少 339.5 万桶。美国原油产量及钻机数：2025 年 3 月 7 日美国原油产量为 1357.5 万桶/天，周度增加 6.7 万桶/天，较一年前增加 47.5 万桶/天。2025 年 3 月 14 日美国钻机数 592 台，周度不变，年减少 37 台；加 拿大钻机数 199 台，周减少 35 台，年度减少 8 台。其中美国采油钻机 487 台，周度 增加 1 台，年减少 23 台。 价格变化： 价差变化： 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外销售不及预期；原材料价格大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 17 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*75 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve steady growth despite a warm winter, with a projected close to 10% growth in its down jacket business for FY25 [4][5] - The target price is set at 5.26 HKD, based on a 14x PE valuation for FY26 [4][5] - The company has actively repurchased shares, reflecting management's confidence, with a total of 56.21 million shares repurchased since January 15, amounting to 209 million HKD [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY23A was 16,774 million HKD, with a projected increase to 25,545 million HKD in FY25E, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [4][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 2,139 million HKD in FY23A to 3,515 million HKD in FY25E, representing a 14.3% increase [4][8] - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 0.30, 0.35, and 0.40 HKD for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E respectively [4][5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is deepening its strategic cooperation with Harbin to enhance its brand presence in Northeast China [4][5] - A new concept store was opened in Beijing, aimed at boosting brand visibility and consumer engagement [4][5] - The company is leveraging digital innovations such as AI in product design, significantly reducing development time [4][5]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 基本面改善已有呈现，供需两端均有亮点 ——2 月经济数据点评 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 17 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 结构上的积极变化有待政策进一步巩固— —2025 年 2 月通胀数据点评 2025-03-12 是否真的有"抢出口"？——1-2 月进出口 点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the market by 0.18 percentage points, while the paper sub-sector rose by 0.21%, underperforming the market by 1.38 percentage points [1][13] - The report highlights that the prices of double-sided paper have slightly increased, while packaging paper prices have decreased [39] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 1.76%, ranking 13th among 28 first-level industries, with the paper sub-sector increasing by 0.21% [1][13] - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing, ranked by growth, are furniture, packaging printing, cultural products, and paper, with respective increases of 2.66%, 2.30%, 0.55%, and 0.21% [1][13] Industry Chain Data Tracking - The national waste price increased by 27 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices remained stable [25] - The average market price for double-sided paper rose by 5 CNY/ton to 5450 CNY/ton, while white cardboard prices fell by 8 CNY/ton to 4310 CNY/ton [39] - The report notes a mixed profitability among finished paper products, with double-sided paper profitability increasing by 1-18 CNY/ton, while white cardboard profitability decreased by 3-9 CNY/ton [49][51] Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the integrated pulp and paper industry, such as Sun Paper (002078, Buy), and suggests that special paper companies typically experience profit expansion within six months after pulp price increases [3] - It also recommends companies like Xianhe Shares (603733, Buy) and Huawang Technology (605377, Buy) in the specialty paper sector, as well as Wuzhou Special Paper (605007, Hold) in the food packaging paper segment [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the market by 0.18 percentage points, while the paper sub-sector rose by 0.21%, underperforming the market by 1.38 percentage points [1][13] - The report highlights that the prices of double-sided paper have slightly increased, while packaging paper prices have decreased [8][39] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 1.76%, ranking 13th among 28 first-level industries, with the paper sub-sector increasing by 0.21% [1][13] - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing, ranked by growth, are furniture, packaging printing, cultural products, and paper, with respective increases of 2.66%, 2.30%, 0.55%, and 0.21% [1][13] Industry Chain Data Tracking - The national waste price increased by 27 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices remained stable [25] - The average market price for double-sided paper rose by 5 CNY/ton to 5450 CNY/ton, while white cardboard prices fell by 8 CNY/ton to 4310 CNY/ton [39] - The report notes a mixed profitability among finished paper products, with double-sided paper profitability increasing by 1-18 CNY/ton [49] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Suzano announced a price increase of 20 USD/ton for broadleaf pulp, supporting the price recovery of cultural paper and white cardboard [3] - Recommended stocks include Sun Paper Industry (002078, Buy), Xianhe Shares (603733, Buy), Huawang Technology (605377, Buy), and Wuzhou Special Paper (605007, Hold) [3] - The report anticipates a slowdown in the growth of new supply in the industry by 2025, leading to gradual improvement in overall supply and demand, recommending Jiulong Paper (02689, Buy) and Shanying International (600567, Hold) [3]

投资策略 | 定期报告 A 股延续强势，建议关注科技产业趋势的反 弹行情 ——策略周报 0316 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 赵越峰 | 021-63325888*7507 | | | zhaoyuefeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860513060001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPU173 | | 港股表现强势，继续关注科技股中长期行 | 2025-03-09 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and components industry [5] Core Insights - February saw impressive year-on-year growth in overall passenger car sales, with a significant increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs). According to the China Passenger Car Association, wholesale/retail sales of narrow-sense passenger cars reached 1.767 million/1.386 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.8%/26.0%. However, there was a month-on-month decrease of 16.0%/22.8%. NEV wholesale/retail sales were 830,000/686,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 79.6%/79.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.7%/7.8%. The penetration rates for NEVs reached 47.0%/49.5%, up 12.0/15.0 percentage points year-on-year and 4.7/8.0 percentage points month-on-month [10][29][35]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests continued focus on investment opportunities in the humanoid robot supply chain, with related companies expected to see both profit and valuation increases. By 2025, competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology are anticipated to expand their market share. Some central state-owned enterprises are expected to reverse their difficulties through reforms and enhanced external cooperation. Recommended companies include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, GAC Group, Yutong Bus, and several others in the humanoid robot and technology supply chains [2][13][14][15]. Market Trends - The automotive sector's performance this week showed a 0.7% increase, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.6%. Among the secondary industries, the automotive sales and service sector (+1.98%), passenger vehicle sector (+1.69%), and motorcycle sector (+1.26%) performed well, while the automotive parts sector (+0.31%) yielded positive returns. The commercial vehicle sector saw a decline of 0.84% [17]. Sales Tracking - Preliminary statistics from the China Passenger Car Association indicate that from March 1-9, wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 403,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 26% and an 84% increase compared to the previous month. Cumulatively, wholesale sales for the year reached 4.268 million units, up 14% year-on-year. Retail sales during the same period were 364,000 units, a 14% year-on-year increase and a 52% increase month-on-month, with cumulative retail sales of 3.539 million units, up 2% year-on-year [27]. Industry Developments - Figure AI launched its humanoid robot factory BotQ, with an initial production capacity of 12,000 units per year, expected to expand to 100,000 units over the next four years. The factory's automation level will increase as the number of humanoid robots on the production line grows, laying the foundation for large-scale production. Additionally, the report highlights the launch of new models from various companies, including the Wanjie M8 and M9, which have received strong pre-order interest [11][12][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and components industry [5]. Core Insights - February saw impressive year-on-year growth in overall passenger car sales, with a significant increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs). According to the China Passenger Car Association, wholesale/retail sales of narrow-sense passenger cars reached 1.767 million/1.386 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.8%/26.0%. However, there was a month-on-month decrease of 16.0%/22.8%. NEV wholesale/retail sales were 830,000/686,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 79.6%/79.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.7%/7.8%. The penetration rates for NEVs reached 47.0%/49.5%, up 12.0/15.0 percentage points year-on-year and 4.7/8.0 percentage points month-on-month [10][29][35]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests continued focus on humanoid robot supply chain investment opportunities, with related companies expected to see both profit and valuation increases. By 2025, competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology are anticipated to expand their market share. Some central state-owned enterprises are expected to reverse their difficulties through reforms and enhanced external cooperation. Recommended companies include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, GAC Group, and Yutong Bus, among others [2][13][14]. Market Trends - The automotive sector's performance this week showed a 0.7% increase, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.6%. Among the secondary industries, the automotive sales and service sector (+1.98%), passenger vehicle sector (+1.69%), and motorcycle sector (+1.26%) performed well, while the automotive parts sector (+0.31%) yielded positive returns. The commercial vehicle sector saw a decline of 0.84% [17]. Sales Tracking - Preliminary statistics from the China Passenger Car Association indicate that from March 1-9, wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 403,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 26% and an 84% increase compared to the previous month. Cumulatively, wholesale sales for the year reached 4.268 million units, up 14% year-on-year. Retail sales during the same period were 364,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14% and a 52% increase compared to the previous month [27].

Quantitative Factors and Models Summary Quantitative Factors and Their Construction - **Factor Name: Trend** - **Construction Idea**: Measures market preference for trend-following strategies, using exponential weighted moving averages (EWMA) with different half-lives [12] - **Construction Process**: - **Trend_120**: $ EWMA(halflife=20) / EWMA(halflife=120) $ - **Trend_240**: $ EWMA(halflife=20) / EWMA(halflife=240) $ [12] - **Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance in short-term market rebounds, indicating increased preference for trend-following strategies [9] - **Factor Name: Certainty** - **Construction Idea**: Captures market confidence through institutional holdings and analyst coverage [12] - **Construction Process**: - **Instholder Pct**: Proportion of public fund holdings - **Cov**: Analyst coverage adjusted for market capitalization - **Listdays**: Number of days since listing [12] - **Evaluation**: Shows recovery in market confidence during the observed period [9] - **Factor Name: Value** - **Construction Idea**: Measures valuation attractiveness using metrics like book-to-price (BP) and earnings yield (EP) [12] - **Construction Process**: - **BP**: $ Net\ Assets / Market\ Capitalization $ - **EP**: $ Earnings / Market\ Capitalization $ [12] - **Evaluation**: Underperformed during the observed period, reflecting reduced market preference for value stocks [9] - **Factor Name: Volatility** - **Construction Idea**: Captures market risk perception through historical and idiosyncratic volatility measures [12] - **Construction Process**: - **Stdvol**: Standard deviation of daily returns over 243 days - **Ivff**: Idiosyncratic volatility from Fama-French 3-factor model over 243 days - **Range**: $ (High\ Price - Low\ Price) / Low\ Price $ over 243 days [12] - **Evaluation**: Declined significantly, indicating increased market aversion to high-volatility assets [10] - **Factor Name: Size** - **Construction Idea**: Measures the impact of company size on returns using logarithmic market capitalization [12] - **Construction Process**: $ Log(Market\ Capitalization) $ [12] - **Evaluation**: Continued to underperform, reflecting negative sentiment towards smaller companies [10] Factor Backtesting Results - **Trend Factor** - Weekly return: 1.49% [9] - Monthly return: -4.81% [11] - Year-to-date return: -10.89% [11] - Historical annualized return: 13.86% [11] - **Certainty Factor** - Weekly return: 1.35% [9] - Monthly return: -2.32% [11] - Year-to-date return: -3.44% [11] - Historical annualized return: 3.20% [11] - **Value Factor** - Weekly return: 0.35% [9] - Monthly return: -2.42% [11] - Year-to-date return: -10.53% [11] - Historical annualized return: 7.28% [11] - **Volatility Factor** - Weekly return: -0.51% [10] - Monthly return: 5.01% [11] - Year-to-date return: 16.90% [11] - Historical annualized return: -12.84% [11] - **Size Factor** - Weekly return: -4.61% [10] - Monthly return: -12.65% [11] - Year-to-date return: -22.68% [11] - Historical annualized return: -29.42% [11] Composite Factor Portfolio Construction - **Model Name: Maximized Factor Exposure (MFE) Portfolio** - **Construction Idea**: Optimizes portfolio to maximize exposure to a single factor while controlling for industry, style, and turnover constraints [52] - **Construction Process**: - Objective function: $ max\ f^{T}w $ - Constraints: - Style exposure: $ s_{l} \leq X(w-w_{b}) \leq s_{h} $ - Industry exposure: $ h_{l} \leq H(w-w_{b}) \leq h_{h} $ - Stock weight deviation: $ w_{l} \leq w-w_{b} \leq w_{h} $ - Turnover limit: $ \Sigma|w-w_{0}| \leq to_{h} $ [52][53] - **Evaluation**: Provides a robust framework for testing factor effectiveness under realistic portfolio constraints [53] MFE Portfolio Backtesting Results - **MFE Portfolio for Trend Factor** - Weekly return: 1.49% [9] - Monthly return: -4.81% [11] - Year-to-date return: -10.89% [11] - Historical annualized return: 13.86% [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HKD 75.96 per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - Kuaishou's Keling technology is positioned to lead in the multi-modal video generation space, with significant competitive advantages and ongoing technological iterations [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring of video generation model advancements and AI empowerment in existing business operations [4][8]. - Kuaishou's revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at CNY 127.19 billion, CNY 141.03 billion, and CNY 154.13 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of CNY 15.22 billion, CNY 19.05 billion, and CNY 23.42 billion [9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Video Generation Model Development - The video generation model is entering a rapid development phase, with Kuaishou's Keling technology being a top player globally, particularly in core evaluation metrics such as consistency and precise control [22][31]. - The DiT architecture is identified as the mainstream framework for video generation, with Kuaishou quickly achieving technological breakthroughs [22][23]. Section 2: Kuaishou's Competitive Position - Keling's technological capabilities and data resource advantages position it favorably for future developments in the AI-driven content community [8][19]. - Kuaishou's strategic focus and unified organizational structure enhance its execution efficiency [8][19]. Section 3: Financial Performance and Market Position - Kuaishou's user engagement metrics remain strong, with MAU and DAU showing consistent growth, and daily average usage time maintained at high levels [8][9]. - The e-commerce GMV is expected to grow by 13.5% in 2025, outpacing the market, while online marketing services are projected to increase by 15.6% [8][9].