2025 年 10 月 30 日 公司研究 Q3 归母净利润环比小幅改善，静待炼化景气修复 ——中国石化（600028.SH/0386.HK）2025 年三季报点评 A 股：买入（维持） 当前价：5.52 元 H 股：买入（维持） 当前价：4.22 港元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 分析师：王礼沫 执业证书编号：S0930524040002 010-56513142 wanglimo@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 1211.78 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 6689.00 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 5.25/6.78 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 1.09% | 要点 事件： 公司发布 2025 年三季报，2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业总收入 21134 亿元，同比-10.7%，实现归母净利润 300 亿元，同比-32. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong resilience in performance growth, with a revenue of 9.05 billion and a net profit of 3.36 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.2% and 12.8% respectively [5]. - The report highlights a slowdown in revenue growth while maintaining double-digit profit growth, with net interest income and non-interest income growth rates of 2.4% and 35.3% respectively [6]. - The bank's asset and loan growth rates were 11.6% and 7.1% year-on-year, indicating stable credit growth [7]. - Deposit growth was steady, but there are signs of a slowdown in the trend towards term deposits, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.7% [8]. - The net interest margin (NIM) for the first three quarters was 2.57%, with a narrowing decline in the margin observed [8]. - Non-interest income grew by 35% year-on-year, but its proportion of total revenue decreased to 21.9% [9]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained low at 0.76%, indicating strong risk coverage capabilities [10]. - The capital adequacy ratios showed marginal improvement, with a core Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.14% [11]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.28, 1.42, and 1.50 respectively, with corresponding PB valuations of 0.7, 0.62, and 0.56 [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 90.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, and a net profit of 33.6 billion, up 12.8% [5]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROAE) was 15.02%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Revenue and Profitability - Revenue growth slowed, with year-on-year growth rates for revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit at 8.2%, 10.1%, and 12.8% respectively [6]. - The bank's net interest income and non-interest income growth rates were 2.4% and 35.3%, respectively [6]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The NPL ratio was stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 463% [10]. - The bank's risk compensation ability remains robust, with a decrease in the provision for loan losses [10]. Capital Adequacy - The core Tier 1 capital ratio improved to 11.14%, with a total capital adequacy ratio of 13.66% [11]. Earnings Forecast - The report maintains EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.28, 1.42, and 1.50, with corresponding PB valuations of 0.7, 0.62, and 0.56 [12].

Group 1: Macro and Market Insights - The report outlines three quantitative indicators from the "14th Five-Year Plan" that provide a clear roadmap for economic development over the next five years: steady improvement in total factor productivity, significant increase in household consumption rate, and maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range [1] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to continue strong performance, with a monthly stock selection for November 2025 including companies like Sunking Electronics and Tencent Holdings [1] Group 2: High-end Manufacturing Industry - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a breakthrough year for humanoid robots, with strong optimism for the humanoid robot industry [2] - The liquid cooling industry is expected to see increased penetration driven by improvements in power density and reductions in PUE [2] - The PCB equipment industry is projected to maintain high prosperity as manufacturers accelerate the expansion of high-end PCB capacity [2] - Solid-state battery materials are seeing continuous R&D achievements, with equipment orders expected to increase due to market demand [2] - Recommendations include companies like Ampere Dragon and Giant Star Technology [2] Group 3: Non-ferrous Metals Industry - In Q3 2025, the proportion of non-ferrous metal heavy stocks held by active equity funds increased to 5.72%, with notable increases in copper and tin holdings [3] - Investment suggestions highlight that supply supports price increases for copper, aluminum, and rare earths, while precious metals benefit from a weakened US dollar and a rate cut cycle [3] - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Western Mining [3] Group 4: Banking Sector Insights - China Merchants Bank reported a steady increase in net interest income and a significant rise in wealth management income, with a revenue growth rate improving by 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] - Qingdao Bank achieved a revenue of 11 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 5% year-on-year increase, with a net profit growth of 15.5% [6] - Jiangyin Bank's revenue reached 3.2 billion yuan, growing by 6.2% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 13.4% [7] - China Bank's revenue growth was 2.7%, with a positive trend in profitability and asset quality [8] - Chengdu Bank reported a revenue of 17.8 billion yuan, a 3% increase, with a net profit growth of 5% [9] Group 5: Chemical and Petrochemical Sector - Jiufeng Energy's Q3 performance was impacted by short-term disturbances, leading to a slight downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [10] - Yangnong Chemical reported steady growth in pesticide raw material sales, with a positive outlook for the industry [11] - Satellite Chemical's profit forecasts were adjusted downward due to rising ethane prices, but the company is expected to maintain growth [12] Group 6: Food and Beverage Sector - Ganyuan Foods reported a revenue of 1.533 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a decrease of 4.53% year-on-year, with a significant drop in net profit [22] - Lihai Foods showed strong sales momentum in core customers, with a bright outlook for its cream business [23] - Haitian Flavor Industry achieved a revenue of 21.63 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a slight adjustment in profit forecasts [24] - Yanjinpuzi reported a revenue increase of 14.67% year-on-year, with a notable rise in net profit [25] Group 7: Home Appliance and New Energy Sector - Shun'an Environment is transitioning from a leader in refrigeration components to a benchmark in refrigeration and new energy vehicle thermal management components, with a target price set at 20.39 yuan [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Jiangyin Bank (002807.SZ) with a current price of 4.80 yuan [1]. Core Views - Jiangyin Bank's net interest income has returned to positive growth, and profitability continues to show double-digit high growth. For the first three quarters of 2025, the bank achieved revenue of 3.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.28 billion yuan, up 13.4% year-on-year [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit growth rates for the first three quarters were 6.2%, 10.9%, and 13.4%, respectively, with declines of 4.3, 3.8, and 3.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [4]. - The annualized weighted average return on equity (ROAE) was 9.05%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Income Structure Summary - Net interest income and non-interest income growth rates for the first three quarters were 1.2% and 17.7%, respectively, with changes of +1.4 and -12.5 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025 [4]. - Non-interest income accounted for 33.2% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 17.7% [7]. Asset and Liability Management Summary - As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, the bank's interest-bearing assets and loans grew by 4.5% and 8.6% year-on-year, respectively, showing slight acceleration compared to the second quarter [5]. - The bank's deposit growth remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 12.4% in deposits [6]. Risk Management Summary - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 0.85%, with a slight decrease from the previous quarter [8]. - The bank's capital adequacy ratios were robust, with the core tier one capital ratio at 13.77% [8]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation Summary - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 0.91, 0.98, and 1.05 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.58, 0.53, and 0.49 [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 491.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 177.7 billion yuan, up 1.1% year-on-year [4][5] - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) stands at 8.98%, reflecting a decrease of 0.57 percentage points year-on-year [4] Revenue and Profit Performance - Revenue growth is primarily driven by non-interest income, which increased by 16.2% year-on-year, while net interest income decreased by 3% [5][8] - The contribution from overseas operations has been steadily increasing, supporting the overall profitability [5][10] Asset and Loan Growth - As of Q3 2025, interest-earning assets grew by 10.3% year-on-year, with loans contributing significantly to this growth [6] - Key sectors such as strategic emerging industries and green finance saw loan growth rates exceeding the overall customer loan growth of 8.2% [6] Deposit and Liability Management - Interest-bearing liabilities and deposits grew by 10% and 8.1% year-on-year, respectively, with deposits accounting for 65.4% of the increase in interest-bearing liabilities [7] - The net interest margin remained stable at 1.26%, with expectations for continued support from the management of funding costs [7] Non-Interest Income and Other Metrics - Non-interest income accounted for 33.7% of total revenue, with net fee and commission income increasing by 8.1% year-on-year [8] - The company reported a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.24%, stable compared to the previous quarter [9] Capital Adequacy and Risk Management - The capital adequacy ratio as of Q3 2025 is 18.66%, indicating a solid capital position [9][29] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.76, 0.79, and 0.81 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.69, 0.64, and 0.60 [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 20.39 CNY, indicating a significant upside potential from the current price of 13.81 CNY [5][7]. Core Insights - The company, Shun'an Environment, is a leading player in the global refrigeration components industry, with a clear strategy focusing on the synergy of three main business areas: refrigeration components, refrigeration equipment, and automotive thermal management [2][23]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 12.7 billion CNY in 2024, with a net profit of 1.04 billion CNY, reflecting a net profit margin of 8.2% [2][5]. - The company has a strong balance sheet, with cash holdings of 1.7 billion CNY, representing 12% of its market value, which is higher than its peers [2][47]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shun'an Environment is recognized as the global leader in refrigeration components, with the highest market share in shut-off valves and the second highest in four-way and electronic expansion valves as of 2024 [2][23]. - The company has undergone significant restructuring since becoming a subsidiary of Gree Electric Appliances, which has helped stabilize its operations and improve financial performance [29][32]. Future Outlook 1: Refrigeration Business - The refrigeration business is expected to provide stable growth, with short-term drivers including increased orders from Gree and a rebound in orders from Midea [3][57]. - The company aims to enhance its product structure by expanding into the commercial refrigeration sector and increasing its market share in overseas markets [3][4]. Future Outlook 2: Automotive Thermal Management - The automotive thermal management segment is projected to grow significantly, with revenues expected to reach 810 million CNY in 2024, marking a 72% increase from 2023 [4][5]. - The company has secured substantial orders from major clients such as BYD and Geely, indicating strong demand for its products in the electric vehicle market [4][5]. Future Outlook 3: Long-term Incentive Mechanism - The company has implemented a long-term incentive plan to enhance employee engagement and retention, which is expected to support its growth trajectory [4][5]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.09 billion CNY, 1.26 billion CNY, and 1.47 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 4%, 16%, and 16% [5][6]. - The report highlights that Shun'an Environment's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is significantly lower than its peers, suggesting that the market undervalues the company [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that will outperform the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.597 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.45%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 425 million yuan, up 43.64% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.638 billion yuan, a 3.06% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 153 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 90.49% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is a leading player in the vehicle power supply industry, holding a 16.2% market share in China's vehicle power supply shipments for Q3 2025, despite a slight decline from the previous year [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 23.02%, an increase of 4.94 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 9.37%, up 4.11 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 610 million yuan, a substantial increase of 69% year-on-year [2]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company invested 107 million yuan in R&D in Q3 2025, with an R&D expense ratio of 6.52%. The sales of the next-generation integrated products accounted for over 20% of total sales [2]. - The company is focusing on emerging markets, including low-altitude economy and AI server power supply, leveraging its R&D capabilities and customer base [2]. Global Strategy - The company has established strong ties with Stellantis Group and is benefiting from the ramp-up of new electric vehicle platforms. It is also expanding its production base in Thailand [3]. - The company is expected to continue increasing its market share through product structure adjustments and accelerated globalization efforts [1][3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 649 million yuan, 872 million yuan, and 1.042 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 18, and 15 [4][3].

Core Viewpoints - In 2026, high-end manufacturing will remain a key focus for the market, with significant breakthroughs expected in humanoid robots, liquid cooling equipment, and solid-state battery equipment industries. The PCB equipment sector is anticipated to see increased demand driven by the growth in AI computing power [3][4]. Group 1: Technology - The humanoid robot industry is expected to achieve mass production breakthroughs in 2026, with a focus on high-complexity dexterous hands, screw rod mass production, and the reducer supply chain [4][21]. - Liquid cooling technology is projected to evolve from single-phase cooling plates to dual-phase and immersion cooling systems, driven by increased chip power density and reduced PUE in data centers [4][49]. - The PCB equipment market is set to benefit from the rising demand for AI-related PCBs, with domestic manufacturers actively expanding their high-end PCB production capacity [4][50]. Group 2: External Demand - The impact of tariffs is expected to stabilize, leading to a recovery in external demand, particularly in tool & OPE and mining machinery exports [4][5]. - The mining equipment sector is highlighted with two main investment lines: the inflation of consumables due to declining copper ore grades and the acceleration of capital expenditures driven by supply gaps [4][5]. Group 3: Internal Demand - The recovery of the manufacturing sector is likely to boost demand for machine tools and automation equipment, with a focus on domestic replacements [4][5]. - The automation upgrade pace among manufacturing enterprises is accelerating, indicating a strong trend towards domestic automation equipment [4][5]. Group 4: Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies in the humanoid robot sector include Zhaowei Electromechanical, Mingzhi Electric, and others focusing on various components of humanoid robots [4][21]. - In the liquid cooling equipment space, companies such as Invec, Highlan, and others are suggested for investment [4][49]. - For PCB equipment, leading firms like Dazhu Laser and Dongwei Technology are highlighted as key players to watch [4][50][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit have declined due to intensified competition in the photovoltaic adhesive market, with a significant drop in sales of BC battery insulation adhesives [2][4]. - The company is focusing on ramping up production capacity at its Longnan base and promoting new products, which are expected to provide new growth opportunities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 348 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.77 million yuan, down 76.65% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 115 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.78% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.52%, with a net profit of -4.77 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 159% [1]. Cost and Expenses - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 34.7% due to price reductions on some products [2]. - Total expenses slightly decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, but the sales expense ratio increased by 2.4 percentage points to 26.9% due to reduced revenue [2]. Production Capacity and New Products - The company is developing a project in Longnan, Jiangxi, with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of electronic photosensitive materials, which includes several new products expected to enter trial production in the second half of 2025 [3]. - The high-performance industrial functional coating brand HIPRO Graphene has passed the NORSOK M-501 standard test, with plans for large-scale applications in the offshore and high-end equipment manufacturing sectors [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 2.6 million yuan, 4.8 million yuan, and 8.5 million yuan respectively [4]. - The report anticipates that the release of production capacity at the Longnan base and breakthroughs in new products will lead to new performance growth points [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.72 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.9%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 13.4% to 280 million yuan. The non-recurring net profit increased by 13.8% to 260 million yuan, with an EPS of 1.17 yuan [1][4] - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue growth slowed down sequentially, but profit growth turned positive [1] - The company's B2B revenue accounted for 86.4% of total revenue in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 37.2%. The B2C revenue, which accounted for 12.6% of total revenue, saw a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's gross margin improved by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to 24.4% in the first three quarters. The quarterly gross margins for Q1, Q2, and Q3 were 24.7%, 24.6%, and 23.8%, respectively [3] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters increased by 258.7% to 430 million yuan [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates of 366 million yuan, 438 million yuan, and 513 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding EPS estimates are 1.53 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 2.14 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 16, 13, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]