2025 年 7 月 31 日 总量研究 全面增持利率品，杠杆久期均回升 ——主动型债券基金 25Q2 持仓分析 要点 1、 25Q2 债券型基金市场总览 截至 2025 年二季度末，全市场公募开放式债券型基金共计 3862 只，较 2025 年一季度末环比增加 54 只/1.4%；市场规模合计 10.93 万亿元，环比增加 0.86 万亿元/8.6%；基金份额合计 9.60 万亿份，净申购 5656.70 亿份，申购比例 6.3%。 除可转债基金外，各类型债券型基金 25Q2 均表现为净申购，市场规模扩张。 2、主动型债券基金季度表现 3、主动型债券基金重仓信用债分析 城投债：截至 25Q2 末，主动债基重仓城投债市值为 724.06 亿元，环比减持 17.94 亿元。分区域来看，浙江省持仓市值居前，广东、广西等区域被增持，湖南、四 川等区域被减持。剩余期限方面，重仓城投债平均剩余期限为 2.43 年，环比减 少 0.17 年，其中西藏、河北等区域剩余期限显著拉长，北京、广东等地有所缩 短。收益率方面，重仓城投债平均估值收益率为 1.93%，环比下行 25.63BP， 其中青海、辽宁等地收益率较高，各省份平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the phosphate chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall operating rate of phosphate ammonium is low, but leading companies have sufficient resources and can achieve considerable profits [1][5] - Since 2022, stricter export policies for phosphate ammonium have led to a decline in domestic operating rates, with the operating rate for monoammonium phosphate remaining below 60% [4][5] - The profitability of the phosphate ammonium segment is under pressure, but leading companies benefit from their upstream resource reserves [5][6] - The price gap between domestic and overseas phosphate ammonium has widened, with expectations for increased exports in Q3 due to high overseas prices [7][16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The phosphate ammonium industry has faced challenges due to export restrictions and regulatory impacts, leading to a significant drop in production and operating rates [4] - The average operating rate for monoammonium phosphate in the first half of 2025 was approximately 53.2% [4] Profitability Analysis - The average gross profit margins for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were negative in the first half of 2025, marking a significant decline compared to previous years [5] - Leading companies have managed to maintain profitability through strategic resource allocation and upstream integration [5][6] Market Dynamics - The average price of domestic phosphate rock has seen a slight increase, with expectations for continued high demand in the medium term [6] - The report highlights the potential for increased exports of phosphate fertilizers in Q3, driven by higher overseas prices [7][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Yuntianhua, Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and others, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated industry consolidation and resource advantages [16]

2025 年 7 月 31 日 总量研究 "抢进口"效应减弱，难掩美国经济隐忧 ——2025 年二季度美国经济数据点评 | | 要点 | | --- | --- | | 作者 | 事件： | | 分析师：高瑞东 | 2025 年 7 月 30 日，美国经济分析局公布 2025 年二季度 GDP 数据初值： | | 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 | | | 010-56513066 | 【1】二季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值+3.0%，预期+2.4%，前值-0.5%； | | gaoruidong@ebscn.com | 【2】二季度实际个人消费支出季率初值+1.4%，预期+1.5%，前值+0.5%； | | 分析师：周欣平 | 【3】二季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值+2.5%，预期+2.3%，前值+3.5%。 | | 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 | | | 010-57378026 | | | zhouxinping@ebscn.com | | | 相关研报 | 核心观点： | | 关税滞胀效应显现，美国经济增速转负—— | | | 2025 年一季度美国经济数据点评（2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (9888.HK) with a target price of HKD 109.4, compared to the current price of HKD 85.50 [6]. Core Insights - Baidu Group is expected to face revenue pressure in Q2 2025, with total revenue projected to decline by 4.2% year-on-year to RMB 32.52 billion, and core revenue expected to decrease by 3.6% to RMB 25.72 billion. The core non-GAAP operating profit is anticipated to drop by 42.5% to RMB 4.03 billion, with an operating margin of 15.7% [1][4]. - The online marketing business is under pressure due to the transitional phase of AI integration, leading to a 15.7% decline in online marketing service revenue. However, as product capabilities improve and commercialization paths expand, revenue is expected to gradually recover [2][4]. - Non-online marketing business revenue is projected to grow by 27% year-on-year to RMB 9.54 billion, driven by strong performance in cloud services and advancements in AI-driven models [3][4]. Summary by Sections Online Marketing Business - The core revenue for Q2 2025 is expected to be RMB 25.72 billion, down 3.6% year-on-year, with online marketing services revenue declining by 15.7% due to the impact of AI transformation [2]. - Baidu's search products and interaction methods are being upgraded, enhancing user experience through multi-modal queries and structured answers [2]. - The launch of the ad-free intelligent search app "TizzyAI" aims to improve content aggregation and logical reasoning capabilities [2]. Non-Online Marketing Business - The core non-online marketing revenue is expected to reach RMB 9.54 billion, a 27% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from cloud services [3]. - The "萝卜快跑" service continues to grow, with a 75% increase in order volume year-on-year, and a strategic partnership with Uber aims to expand autonomous driving services [3]. - The continuous evolution of the Wenxin large model technology enhances multi-modal and reasoning capabilities, potentially increasing enterprise deployment willingness [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Due to ongoing pressures in advertising demand and intense industry competition, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with non-GAAP net profit estimates adjusted to RMB 18 billion, RMB 19.8 billion, and RMB 22.3 billion respectively [4][5]. - The valuation multiples for advertising, smart cloud, and other businesses have been lowered to 10.0x PE, 2.5x PS, and 2.5x PS, respectively [4]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand for AI models and anticipates continued growth in Baidu's cloud business, highlighting the importance of AI search monetization progress [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in Q2 2025, with a revenue of 9.91 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing an 8.09% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.17 billion yuan, up 14.18% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from improving orders in special industries and new growth driven by emerging industries in the second half of 2025 [3]. - The operating cash flow has shown continuous improvement, with a net inflow of 98.84 million yuan in H1 2025, a 29.32% increase year-on-year [4]. Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, revenue from the electronics and electrical sector, aerospace, and research and testing institutions was 3.85 billion, 1.47 billion, and 2.19 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.86%, 46.24%, and 1.84% [2]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 41.88% and a net margin of 13.51% in H1 2025, despite a decline in gross margins due to reduced expense ratios and the reversal of credit impairment losses [2]. Business Segments - Revenue from testing equipment, environmental reliability testing services, and integrated circuit verification and analysis services in H1 2025 was 3.10 billion, 4.87 billion, and 1.55 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.32%, 5.75%, and 21.01% respectively [2]. - The company is focusing on R&D for new products and technologies in sectors such as new energy, commercial aerospace, and integrated circuits, which is expected to drive further growth [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 3.04 billion, 3.81 billion, and 4.62 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.60, 0.75, and 0.91 yuan [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 28x for 2025, 22x for 2026, and 18x for 2027, indicating potential for future growth [4].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasizes the continuation of supportive economic policies, focusing on breaking the "involution," promoting service consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade, aiming to consolidate the economic recovery and capital market stability [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The coal chemical industry is undergoing structural adjustments and industrial upgrades, with an optimistic outlook for supply and demand optimization, benefiting related companies such as Baofeng Energy, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, Chengzhi Co., and China Xuyang Group [4] Group 3: Company Research - Baowu Magnesium Industry's performance is impacted by declining magnesium prices, but the magnesium-aluminum price ratio has remained below 1 for the past 11 months, indicating growth potential in automotive lightweight applications and robotics [5] - Sujiao Technology reported a decline in traditional business but is seeing rapid growth in emerging sectors, with a focus on deepening low-altitude business layouts despite financial pressures [6] - WuXi AppTec's half-year report shows significant revenue growth, with operating income reaching 20.799 billion yuan and a non-net profit of 5.58 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" initiative is fully underway, with supply-side reforms ongoing, indicating a focus on optimizing the market competition landscape [5] - The government is emphasizing the development of modern coal chemical industries, aiming for a clean and efficient utilization of coal by 2030 [4] - Structural adjustments and industrial upgrades are expected to proceed in parallel, with a balanced supply-demand situation anticipated for 2025 [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Anti-Involution Actions - The central government has been vocal about preventing "involution" in industry competition, emphasizing market mechanisms for eliminating inefficient capacities and promoting self-discipline among industries [5] Section 2: Government Support for Coal Chemical Development - The government has issued guidelines to enhance the clean and efficient use of coal, aiming to establish a comprehensive clean utilization system by 2030 [4] Section 3: Industry Structural Adjustments - The coal chemical industry is expected to see a shift towards higher capacity concentration and accelerated smart technology adoption, with a balanced supply-demand dynamic and a downward price trend [5] - In 2024, the coal chemical industry is projected to achieve a revenue of approximately 202.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with total profits expected to reach about 11.93 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 178.1% [5][6] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Baofeng Energy, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, Chengzhi Co., and China Xuyang Group, as they are likely to benefit from the ongoing structural adjustments and industry upgrades [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Views - The company's performance is negatively impacted by declining magnesium prices, with projected revenues of 8.983 billion and 10.110 billion for 2024 and 2025 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 17.39% and 12.55%. However, net profits are expected to decrease significantly, with a forecast of 1.6 billion and 0.28 billion for the same periods, reflecting a decline of 47.91% and 53.58% [1]. - The magnesium-aluminum price ratio has remained below 1 for nearly 11 months, indicating a growing application space for lightweight materials in the automotive sector. Major automotive manufacturers are increasing their use of magnesium products, with potential usage in vehicles expected to rise significantly in the future [1]. - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain from mining to magnesium alloy production, ensuring raw material supply and cost efficiency. Current production capacities include 100,000 tons of raw magnesium and 200,000 tons of magnesium alloy, with additional capacity expansions planned [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 89.83 billion and 20.33 billion in Q1 of 2024 and 2025, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 17.39% and 9.08%. However, net profits are expected to decline to 1.6 billion and 0.28 billion, down 47.91% and 53.58% [1]. - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2026 has been revised downwards to 2.11 billion and 2.83 billion, reflecting a decrease of 64.7% and 68.1% respectively, with a new projection for 2027 at 4.23 billion [3]. Market Trends - The magnesium price has decreased by 17.2% since the beginning of 2024, with the current price at 18,210 yuan per ton [1]. - The magnesium-aluminum price ratio is currently at 0.90, indicating a shift towards magnesium in automotive applications, with significant penetration from companies like Seres and Geely [1]. Industry Position - The company benefits from an integrated layout that includes mining, raw magnesium smelting, and magnesium alloy production, which helps in securing raw material supply and reducing production costs [3]. - The company has significant resource reserves, with subsidiaries holding substantial quantities of dolomite resources, ensuring long-term supply stability [3].

美欧达成贸易协议 欧元逢低吸纳 ---- 2025 年 7 月 30 日大公報 https://www.takungpao.com/finance/236135/2025/0730/1108140.html ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company reported significant revenue growth of 20.64% year-over-year, reaching 20.799 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 101.92%, amounting to 8.561 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2][3]. - The strong performance is attributed to the focus on the CRDMO business model, improved production efficiency, and a substantial increase in orders, which reached 56.69 billion yuan, up 37.2% year-over-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.14 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 20.37%, and a net profit of 4.89 billion yuan, reflecting a 112.78% increase [2]. - The non-IFRS gross margin improved to 44.5%, an increase of 4.7 percentage points year-over-year [3]. Business Segments - The chemical business generated revenue of 16.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a significant growth of 33.5% [4]. - The TIDES business showed exceptional performance, with revenue reaching 5.03 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 141.6% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 15.14 billion yuan, 15.54 billion yuan, and 18.02 billion yuan, representing increases of 37.9%, 24.1%, and 27.3% respectively [5]. - The corresponding P/E ratios for A-shares are projected to be 19, 18, and 16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5].