[Table_Reportdate] 2025年02月17日 4 标配 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 于卓楠 S0630524100001 yzn@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王珏人 S0630523100001 wjr@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -21% -10% 1% 12% 23% 34% 45% 24-02 24-04 24-06 24-08 申万行业指数:电力设备(0763) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.光伏节后产业链价格维稳，多地将 海风项目纳入重点建设清单——新 能源电力行业周报（ 2025/02/05- 2025/02/07） 2.以旧换新效果显著，储能景气度持 续 — — 电 池 及 储 能 行 业 周 报 （2025/01/13-2025/01/19） 3.光伏硅片排产有望上行，关注深远 海海风发展进程——新能源电力行 业周报（2025/01/13-2025/01/17） [T ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [12]. Core Insights - In January 2025, social financing (社融) significantly exceeded expectations, driven by increased liquidity demand from enterprises due to the timing of the Spring Festival and a slowdown in the issuance of government bonds [9][10]. - The report highlights a strong performance in corporate credit, with a record increase in RMB loans amounting to 5.13 trillion yuan, marking a significant improvement compared to the weak performance in Q4 2024 [9][10]. - The report suggests that the pressure for credit "opening" in February and March 2025 has eased due to the strong social financing data from January [9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming political meetings for signals regarding monetary policy and fiscal deficit targets, which will clarify the path for policy coordination [7]. Summary by Sections Credit Analysis - Corporate credit showed significant growth in short-term loans, bill financing, and medium to long-term loans, attributed to increased liquidity needs during the Spring Festival [7]. - Personal loans, however, were weaker compared to January 2024, particularly short-term loans, indicating a slowdown in growth for operational loans [7]. - Government bond issuance has shown a remarkable year-on-year performance, reflecting substantial fiscal support, but the pace has slowed compared to the previous quarter [7]. Deposit Trends - The regulation of interbank deposit pricing continues to squeeze non-bank deposits, leading to a decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in non-bank deposits [7]. - The report notes that the decrease in non-financial corporate deposits is consistent with seasonal patterns observed in previous years, primarily due to significant expenditures during the Spring Festival [7]. Interest Rate Trends - The average weighted loan interest rate decreased by 39 basis points to 3.28% in Q4 2024, aligning with the downward trend of benchmark rates [10]. - The report indicates that the decline in deposit rates will alleviate concerns regarding bank interest margins, suggesting that the pressure on margins in 2025 will be less severe than in 2024 [10]. Investment Focus - The report recommends focusing on stable dividends and recovery potential, particularly for leading small and medium-sized banks, as macroeconomic recovery and supportive monetary and fiscal policies are expected to mitigate risks in the banking sector [11].

Group 1: Company Overview - Anhui Heli (600761) has deepened its cooperation with Huawei, leading the technological upgrade in the smart logistics sector [5][6] - Anhui Heli is the leading company in the domestic forklift industry, with core technologies in electric forklifts, hydraulic systems, and control systems [6] - The collaboration aims to enhance digital transformation, smart logistics, artificial intelligence, and talent development [5][6] Group 2: Industry Insights - The forklift industry is transitioning towards automation and unmanned operations, with a significant increase in sales of mobile robots [7] - In 2023, domestic sales of mobile robots reached 19,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 46.6% [7] - The partnership between Anhui Heli and Huawei is expected to set a precedent for traditional manufacturing and technology integration, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape in smart logistics [6] Group 3: Financial Projections - Anhui Heli's projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.415 billion, 1.587 billion, and 1.866 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12.06, 10.75, and 9.15 times [7] - The company is advancing strategies in globalization, electrification, intelligence, and automation, with plans for convertible bond projects to gradually come online [7] Group 4: Fluorochemical Industry - The fluorochemical sector is experiencing a positive outlook, with refrigerant prices expected to rise due to strong demand from the air conditioning market [8][10] - As of January 27, 2024, prices for refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a increased by 1.16%, 2.38%, and 3.53% respectively compared to the end of December [9] - The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to see a continued upward trend in refrigerant prices, supported by robust demand from the air conditioning and refrigeration sectors [10]

谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈芯楠 cxn@longone.com.cn 联系人 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2025年02月17日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250217 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [Table_Authors] ➢ 1.安徽合力（600761）：母公司与华为合作深入，引领智能物流领域技术升级——公司简 评报告 ➢ 2.氟化工企业业绩预增，制冷剂维持高景气——氟化工行业月报 ➢ 1.1月金融数据超预期 ➢ 2.央行：国库现金定存中标利率下降16个基点 ➢ 3.特朗普宣布汽车进口关税计划或于4月2日生效 ➢ 4.美国1月零售销售环比降0.9%，预期降0.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic forklift manufacturer and is advancing into global markets, focusing on digital transformation and intelligent logistics through a partnership with Huawei [7] - The collaboration with Huawei aims to enhance technological capabilities in areas such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing, which will benefit the company's logistics equipment and smart logistics solutions [7] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing trend of automation in the forklift industry, with a significant increase in sales of unmanned mobile robots [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 17,470.51 million yuan in 2023 to 22,888.21 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.72% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1,278.13 million yuan in 2023 to 1,865.54 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 12.15% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.43 yuan in 2023 to 2.09 yuan in 2026, indicating strong profitability growth [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a comprehensive strategy that includes globalization, electrification, intelligence, and automation, with plans for convertible bond projects to be gradually put into production [7] - The partnership with Huawei is expected to set a precedent for traditional manufacturing and technology integration, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape in the logistics sector [7] - The company aims to become a technology leader in the industry by developing unmanned intelligent forklifts and providing comprehensive smart logistics solutions [7]

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年02月14日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250214 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 任晓帆 S0630522070001 [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 rxf@longone.com.cn [Table_Report] ➢ 1. 美国通胀反弹，降息预期推迟——海外观察：2025年1月美国CPI ➢ 2. 氟化工企业业绩预增，制冷剂维持高景气——氟化工行业月报 ➢ 3. 挖机开年销量受假期影响仍维持增长，全年有望复苏提速——机械设备行业简评 ➢ 1.国家发改委：2025年要加大宏观政策逆周期调节，全方位扩大国内需求。 ➢ 2.央行2024年四季度货币政策执行报告：根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况， 择机调整优化政策力度和节奏。 ➢ 3.美国总统特朗普签署备忘录，将引入对等关税。 ➢ 4.美国1月PPI同比升3.5%，预期升3.2%1. 美国1月CPI超预期。 | 1.1. 美国通胀反弹 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the refrigerant industry, indicating a high level of confidence in the sector's performance in the near future [8]. Core Insights - The refrigerant prices have shown an upward trend, with R32, R125, and R134a prices increasing by 1.16%, 2.38%, and 3.53% respectively as of January 27, 2024 [8]. - The production capacity for refrigerants is expected to remain tight due to strong demand from the air conditioning market, with significant increases in production forecasts for 2025 [8]. - The report highlights that major air conditioning manufacturers have seen an increase in long-term order prices, which supports the overall pricing structure of refrigerants [8]. - The demand for household air conditioners and refrigerators is robust, with production figures for February 2025 showing significant year-on-year growth [8]. Refrigerant Tracking - As of January 2024, the prices for R32, R125, and R134a are reported at 43,500 CNY/ton, 43,000 CNY/ton, and 44,000 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting a positive price movement [8]. - The production of R22 has remained stable, with a price of 33,000 CNY/ton, while the overall market for refrigerants is expected to maintain a favorable trend [8]. Performance Forecast - Companies like Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd. are projected to see significant profit increases in 2024, with expected net profits rising by 98% to 123% and 150.87% to 191.01% respectively [75][79]. - The growth in profits is attributed to rising prices and improved sales volumes of refrigerants, alongside a favorable market structure [75][79]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant sector and those with a well-established industrial chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Jinshi Resources [8].

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年02月13日 [上证指数 Table_NewTitle]或有进一步震荡盘升动能 ——技术分析上证指数简评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [相关研究 Table_Report] 1.《波浪里前行 上证指数目前或处 于黎明的曙光中——运用波浪理论 对上证综指技术分析》 2.《上证指数或酝酿反弹动能——技 术分析上证指数系列》 3.《上证指数短线或有反弹需求—— 技术分析上证指数简评》 策 略 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 核心观点：上证指数中长期趋势在2024年10月中旬之后已经扭转向上，目前调整充分，短 线技术条件修复，或有进一步震荡盘升动能。上证指数经过2024年9月18日到10月8日大 涨后，突破了长达三年半的下降趋势，中长期均线趋势已经修复向上。指数在2024年10月 8日创波段高点3674点之后，宽幅震荡超80余个交易日，最 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data - In January 2025, the US CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.9% and matching the previous value of 2.9%[4] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.5%, higher than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.4%[4] - Core CPI year-on-year increased by 3.3%, above the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3.2%[4] Group 2: Market Implications - The market's expectation for the first interest rate cut of the year has been pushed back to after September 2025 due to the inflation data exceeding expectations[4] - Following the data release, US Treasury yields and the US dollar index rose, while US stocks fell and gold prices increased[4] Group 3: Price Components - Energy prices saw a narrowing increase, with a month-on-month rise of 1.1%, down from 1.3% in the previous month[4] - Used car prices provided support for core goods, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% compared to 0.0% previously[4] - Transportation services within core services rose significantly by 1.8% month-on-month, potentially influenced by seasonal price adjustments[4] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The high inflation and interest rate environment may negatively impact consumer spending, which is crucial for maintaining economic resilience[4] - The implementation pace of fiscal policies under Trump could become a significant variable affecting future economic conditions[4]

shangjian@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -19% -8% 2% 13% 24% 35% 45% 24-02 24-05 24-08 24-11 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [Table_NewTitle 挖机开年销量 ] 受假期影响仍维持增长， 全年有望复苏提速 [table_invest] 超配 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [Table_Reportdate] 2025年02月13日 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 联系人 商俭 ——机械设备行业简评 [table_main] 投资要点： 装载机：2025年1月销售各类装载机7920台，同比增长1.51%。其中国内3706台，同比下 降1.01%；出口4214台，同比增长3.84%。2024年1月销售电动装载机1086台。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 研 究 备 机 械 设 [table_product] ➢ 事件：中国工程机械工业协 ...