Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Viewpoints - The military ammunition supply chain is expected to experience unprecedented growth opportunities, particularly in the context of the global geopolitical landscape and China's military development goals by 2027 [1][15]. - The company, Baiao Intelligent, is positioned as a key player in the ammunition supply chain, focusing on the manufacturing of smart equipment for explosive products, which are critical for military operations [1][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Baiao Intelligent specializes in the manufacturing of smart equipment for explosive products, which are essential components in the ammunition supply chain [1][3]. - The company has secured a significant order worth 819 million yuan for explosive products in 2024, indicating a breakthrough in its business operations [3][4]. Market Opportunity - The demand for explosive products is expected to surge due to increased military spending and the need for ammunition replenishment, particularly highlighted by the ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war [2][15]. - The report notes that the average daily consumption of artillery shells during peak conflict periods reached 50,000 rounds, emphasizing the urgent need for production capacity in the explosive products sector [2]. Competitive Advantages - The barriers to entry in the smart equipment manufacturing for explosive products are notably high due to the complex and hazardous nature of the production processes, which require stringent safety and precision controls [2][20]. - Baiao Intelligent's leadership team has extensive experience in engineering and a strong understanding of customer needs, enhancing the company's competitive edge [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 131 million yuan in 2025, with significant growth expected in subsequent years, reaching 250 million yuan by 2027 [4][5]. - Revenue is anticipated to grow from 466 million yuan in 2024 to 1.791 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [5][12]. Industry Trends - The report highlights a shift towards automation and smart manufacturing in the explosive products sector, driven by safety concerns and the need for efficiency [20][22]. - The "black factory" initiative aims to enhance safety and productivity by minimizing human intervention in hazardous operations, which is crucial for the explosive products industry [20][22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock, indicating an expected relative performance exceeding 15% compared to the benchmark index over the next six months [87]. Core Insights - IFBH is a leading player in the coconut water beverage market, with a strong presence in both mainland China and Hong Kong, holding significant market shares of approximately 34% and 60% respectively in 2024 [9][69]. - The company has demonstrated rapid revenue growth, with projected revenues of $15,764.8 million in 2024, reflecting an 80.3% year-on-year increase [6][27]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 34.7% in 2023 to 36.7% in 2024, while the net profit margin is projected to rise from 19.2% to 21.1% in the same period [31][35]. Company Overview - IFBH is rooted in Thailand and has expanded its operations to over 11 countries, focusing on natural and healthy beverage options [9][19]. - The company operates a light-asset model, relying on third-party manufacturers and distributors, which enhances operational efficiency and scalability [48]. - The management team is experienced, with the founder Pongsakorn Pongsak having over a decade of experience in the food and beverage distribution industry [19][20]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of $8,744.2 million in 2023, with a projected increase to $15,764.8 million in 2024, marking an 80.3% growth [6][27]. - Net profit is expected to rise from $1,675.4 million in 2023 to $3,331.6 million in 2024, representing a 98.9% increase [25][27]. - The company’s revenue from coconut water is projected to account for 95.6% of total revenue in 2024, highlighting its dominance in this product category [38]. Business Performance - Coconut water is the primary revenue driver, with sales expected to grow from $8,201.2 million in 2023 to $15,064.2 million in 2024 [38]. - The company has a strong distribution network, with an increase in active distributors from 36 in 2023 to 43 in 2024 [56]. - The majority of revenue is generated from mainland China, which accounted for 92.4% of total revenue in 2024 [41]. Industry Outlook - The global coconut water market is projected to grow from $2.517 billion in 2019 to $4.989 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 14.67% [64]. - The Greater China region is expected to see significant growth, with the market size increasing from $102 million in 2019 to $1.093 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 60.77% [69]. - The coconut water market in Hong Kong is also expanding, with a projected growth from $30.7 million in 2019 to $44.6 million in 2024 [70].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Increase" for key stocks such as Xianle Health and Tongrentang [6]. Core Insights - The health consumption trend is rising, with the nutrition and health product category maintaining rapid growth. The total sales for nutrition and health products during the 618 shopping festival in 2025 are projected to reach 14.3 billion yuan, a 55% increase from 9.2 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - Emerging channels like instant retail are performing well, with Meituan reporting over a 200% year-on-year increase in orders for health supplements [1]. - Traditional categories are expanding steadily, with high-growth segments like anti-aging and liver protection showing significant sales growth [2]. - Leading brands such as Swisse and Tongrentang maintain their positions, while new brands are emerging with competitive pricing and niche market strategies [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The nutrition and health product sector is experiencing robust growth, driven by health-conscious consumer behavior and the rise of e-commerce and new retail channels [1]. Product Categories - Key categories with strong sales during the 618 festival include infant nutrition products, special medical foods, and fish oil. Anti-aging products are among the fastest-growing segments [2]. Brand Analysis - The top brands on platforms like Tmall and JD remain consistent, with Swisse and Tongrentang leading. New entrants are gaining traction by focusing on quality and cost-effectiveness [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear competitive advantages in the contract manufacturing segment, such as Xianle Health and Baihe Shares, and high-quality brand operators like H&H International Holdings and Tongrentang [4].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the industries showing signs of economic prosperity based on medium-term data and profit forecasts, indicating potential investment opportunities [3][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and sector performance to identify favorable investment sectors [3][6]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The top-performing industries in January, March, and over the past year include Communication (7.9%, 0.3%, 28.0%), Banking (6.0%, 11.2%, 33.4%), and Media (4.6%, 0.2%, 42.6%) [1]. - Conversely, the bottom-performing industries include Food & Beverage (-7.3%, -7.6%, -1.7%), Automotive (-6.9%, -6.7%, 27.4%), and Household Appliances (-6.6%, -8.0%, 9.0%) [1]. Group 3: Environmental Sector Insights - The environmental sector is experiencing stricter monitoring standards, with leading companies positioned to benefit from these changes, particularly in waste management and recycling [5][7]. - The report identifies specific companies such as Huaneng Environment and Huicheng Environmental as key players benefiting from carbon neutrality initiatives and significant project wins [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, including Huicheng Environmental, Gaoneng Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [4]. Core Insights - The environmental monitoring industry is experiencing stricter entry standards, which is expected to benefit leading companies and improve service pricing, promoting a shift towards high-quality development [1][18]. - The establishment of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's growth layer is designed to support unprofitable but technologically innovative companies, addressing financing challenges in sectors like membrane materials and carbon capture [1][19][28]. - The current macroeconomic environment features historically low interest rates, making high-dividend and growth-oriented assets attractive [2][30]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - New regulations for ecological environment monitoring institutions are being introduced to enhance market entry standards, focusing on technical capabilities and data integrity [10][18]. - The establishment of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's growth layer aims to support technology-driven companies that are currently unprofitable but have significant potential [19][28]. - The environmental sector is positioned for a rebound as institutional holdings and valuations are at historical lows, suggesting a favorable investment environment [30]. Market Performance - The environmental sector underperformed the broader market, with a weekly decline of 1.11%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51% [3][34]. - Key sub-sectors showed varied performance, with monitoring and waste management sectors experiencing declines [3][34]. Industry News - Recent developments include the release of service pricing for ecological monitoring in Shanghai and investment guidance for hazardous waste disposal facilities in Zhejiang [46]. - New regulations on waste classification management are set to take effect in Shaanxi Province, promoting sustainable waste management practices [46]. Key Companies - Huicheng Environmental is focusing on hazardous waste projects and has made significant technological advancements, with expectations for revenue growth from new projects [32][33]. - Gaoneng Environment aims to become a leading environmental system service provider, benefiting from increased project orders due to regulatory changes [32]. - Hongcheng Environment is recognized for its stable growth and high dividend yield, with a strong focus on expanding its water treatment and waste management services [31][33].

Group 1 - Recent macro data indicates a positive trend for the semiconductor industry, with April sales in China showing a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, marking a significant improvement compared to previous periods [1][18]. - The white goods sector, particularly Midea Group, has demonstrated strong revenue and performance growth, with a 45% increase in revenue from new energy and industrial technology, likely influenced by the consumption upgrade policy [3][35]. - The gaming industry is experiencing varied performance among companies, with some achieving growth through overseas expansion and new game launches, while others focus on cost control [4][39]. Group 2 - The precious metals sector is benefiting from rising gold prices, which have positively impacted company profits, as indicated by the performance of leading firms in this industry [3][34]. - The home goods industry has seen profitability improvements primarily due to cost control measures, with companies like Gujia Home and Qumei Home reporting reductions in labor and material costs [3][36]. - In the beverage and dairy sector, companies such as Miaoke Landuo and Beiyinmei have reported improved profitability, driven by product structure optimization and revenue growth [3][38]. Group 3 - The leisure food industry has shown significant upward revisions in profit forecasts, indicating strong growth potential [2][30]. - The motorcycle and other sectors are experiencing revenue growth driven by increased sales of various products and an optimized revenue structure [4][30]. - The non-metal materials sector has also seen positive performance, attributed to the rise in both volume and price of prebaked anodes [6][30].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Six-Cycle Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model characterizes macroeconomic states based on three dimensions: monetary, credit, and growth. It identifies different economic phases to guide asset allocation strategies[1][7] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model divides the economic cycle into six stages, with stages 4-6 representing credit contraction and stages 1-3 representing credit expansion[1][7] - Historical data shows that during credit contraction, bonds, gold, and value styles perform better, while credit expansion favors stocks, commodities, and growth styles[7][10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures macroeconomic trends and provides actionable asset allocation insights[7] 2. Model Name: Credit Pulse Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the three-month difference of the year-over-year trailing twelve-month (TTM) growth rate of new medium- and long-term loans to identify the direction of the credit cycle[11] - **Model Construction Process**: - The credit pulse indicator is calculated as the three-month difference of the TTM growth rate of new medium- and long-term loans[11] - Historical analysis shows that during credit expansion, A-shares exhibit high return elasticity, while performance is weaker during credit contraction[11] - Timing based on this model yields an annualized excess return of 6.9%, annualized volatility of 15.2%, maximum drawdown of 24.1%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.03[11] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong timing ability, significantly improving risk-adjusted returns during credit expansion phases[11] 3. Model Name: CDS-Based Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the level and direction of China’s sovereign CDS (Credit Default Swap) as a proxy for overseas sentiment towards China’s fundamentals, which is negatively correlated with A-share performance[14] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model assigns different A-share allocation weights based on the rolling 4-year z-score of CDS levels and the 20-day difference in CDS direction[14] - Allocation rules: - CDS declining and at low levels: 100% A-share allocation - CDS declining and at high levels: 75% A-share allocation - CDS rising and at low levels: 25% A-share allocation - CDS rising and at high levels: 0% A-share allocation[15] - Backtesting results show an annualized excess return of 6%, annualized volatility of 14.2%, maximum drawdown of 25.7%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.03 relative to the CSI 800 index[14] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures overseas sentiment and provides a systematic approach to adjusting A-share exposure[14] 4. Model Name: Six-Cycle FOF Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates the six-cycle framework into a risk-budgeting approach to dynamically allocate assets across equities, bonds, and gold[18] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model adjusts asset risk budgets monthly, targeting a volatility level of 3%[18] - Equity allocation is based on the six-cycle phases: - Phase 1: Growth - Phases 2-3: Manufacturing - Phase 4: Cyclical sectors - Phases 5-6: Dividend-paying stocks[18] - Backtesting from 2013 shows an annualized return of 8%, annualized volatility of 2.6%, maximum drawdown of 2.9%, and a Sharpe ratio of 3.04[18][19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model achieves stable returns with low volatility, making it suitable for conservative investors[18][19] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Six-Cycle Model - Annualized Return: Not explicitly provided - Annualized Volatility: Not explicitly provided - Maximum Drawdown: Not explicitly provided - Sharpe Ratio: Not explicitly provided 2. Credit Pulse Timing Model - Annualized Return: 6.9% (excess return) - Annualized Volatility: 15.2% - Maximum Drawdown: 24.1% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.03[11] 3. CDS-Based Timing Model - Annualized Return: 6% (excess return) - Annualized Volatility: 14.2% - Maximum Drawdown: 25.7% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.03[14] 4. Six-Cycle FOF Allocation Model - Annualized Return: 8% - Annualized Volatility: 2.6% - Maximum Drawdown: 2.9% - Sharpe Ratio: 3.04[18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, it is a good window for non - bank institutions to take long positions. They should maintain long - term durations and seize the bull market around the end of the quarter. It is expected that long - term bond yields will hit new lows around the end of the quarter, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fall to the 1.4% - 1.5% level in the third quarter [6][21]. 3. Summary by Related Content Bond Market Performance - This week, the bond market continued to strengthen in a volatile manner, with more significant declines in the yields of non - active varieties. The overnight rate remained around 1.4%, and R007 stayed within 1.6%. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.4bps and 1.2bps to 1.64% and 1.84% respectively. The yields of other varieties declined more notably, such as the 1 - year certificate of deposit yield dropping by 3.3bps to 1.64%, and the yields of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds falling by 2.7bps and 2.4bps to 1.81% and 1.91% last week [1][9]. Narrowing of Yield Spreads - Recently, non - active bonds or non - active varieties have outperformed active bonds or active varieties, with significant narrowing of relevant yield spreads. For example, the yield of the 50 - year Treasury bond dropped from 2.08% at the end of last month to 1.95% on June 20, a decrease of 12.3bps, and the yield spread between the 50 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds narrowed by 6.4bps. The yield spread between 30 - year local government bonds and Treasury bonds also narrowed by 2.8bps this week, and the yield spread between 10 - year AAA medium - term notes and 10 - year Treasury bonds narrowed by 4.2bps to 41.4bps last week. The yield spread between non - active and active bonds also significantly narrowed, such as the spread between the 30 - year active bond (2500002.IB) and the second - active bond (2400006.IB) narrowing by 2.2bps this week. The narrowing is mainly due to two reasons: first, after the yields approach previous lows, key varieties receive more attention, and before key points are broken through, the market compresses non - active varieties and tenors; second, strong long - buying sentiment and improved liquidity of relevant varieties compress the premium of ultra - long bonds, which is most evident in the 50 - year Treasury bond [2][10]. Selling Pressure from Banks - If the market space is to be further expanded, active varieties need to break through key points, which may occur around the end of this quarter. The key force is banks, especially city and rural commercial banks. Due to the pressure of quarter - end indicator assessments such as average duration and liquidity indicators, as well as the need to realize floating profits when banks' profitability is insufficient, banks usually face significant bond - selling pressure at the quarter - end. Currently, small and medium - sized banks may face greater selling pressure than large - sized banks. On one hand, the central bank's care for liquidity and the significant decline in the liability costs of large - sized banks have alleviated their pressure; on the other hand, the profitability of small and medium - sized banks may be weaker than that of large - sized banks. In the first quarter, the year - on - year net profit growth rate of city commercial banks declined the most, at - 6.7%, while those of joint - stock banks and rural commercial banks were - 4.5% and - 2.0% respectively, and large - sized banks had a slight positive growth of 0.1%. Seasonally, small and medium - sized banks usually reduce their bond holdings in May or June, and this reduction is more obvious considering government bond supply. They will then increase their bond allocations in July and August [3][13]. Asset Shortage Situation - The current market is in an asset shortage situation. On one hand, the supply of government bonds is slowing down, and it is expected to slow down in the second half of the year. From the perspective of year - on - year increase, government bonds may enter a stage of year - on - year decrease in the third quarter. Due to the accelerated credit投放 in the previous period and the increase in real interest rates, the credit rhythm has also slowed down, as reflected by the year - on - year decrease in new credit in April and May of the second quarter. On the other hand, the supply of funds remains abundant, and the liability side of banks remains stable. The current capital price is significantly lower than the same period in previous years, and even when the quarter - end shock occurs, the funds are not significantly tightened. The liability side of small and medium - sized banks is stable, with a deposit growth rate of 7.7% in May, an increase from April, indicating that small and medium - sized banks are generally under - allocated in the context of asset shortage [4][16]. Future Bond - Buying Behavior of Banks - For banks, the bonds sold before the quarter - end may be bought back after the quarter - end. Small and medium - sized banks find it difficult to continuously sell bonds in the context of asset shortage. After the quarter - end indicator pressure eases, banks are more likely to buy back bonds. If not, the funds obtained from selling bonds will continue to exist in the form of excess reserves or short - term capital lending, which will lead to looser funds after the quarter - end, and the capital price may fall more than expected. The decline in short - term interest rates will lead to a steeper yield curve and increase the cost - effectiveness of long - term bonds. In a market where supply is lower than demand, the shift of small and medium - sized banks from large - scale selling to buying may lead to a further rapid strengthening of the market, and bond yields may experience a new downward trend [5][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector is experiencing a demand season that is not significantly weak, supported by delayed renovations in the second-hand housing market [2] - The glass market is facing a contradiction between supply and demand, with a continuous decline in demand expected post-2025, although there has been marginal improvement since March [2] - The cement industry is in a phase of seeking a bottom, with increased off-peak production efforts by companies, leading to fluctuating prices around unprofitable levels [2] - The fiberglass market has shown signs of bottoming out, with price wars ending and prices beginning to recover, particularly in the wind power sector [2] - Carbon fiber demand is slowly recovering, with growth expected in downstream sectors such as wind power and hydrogen bottles [2] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of June 20, 2025, the national cement price index is 362.67 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the previous week, with a total cement output of 2.781 million tons, a decrease of 2.88% [3][16] - The cement market is currently in a phase of "weak reality" and "weak expectations," with potential for weak recovery by the end of Q3 if policies are strengthened or the rainy season ends [16] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1209.75 yuan/ton, down 1.64% from the previous week, with inventory levels increasing [32] - The market is expected to experience short-term price fluctuations downward, with ongoing challenges in meeting demand during the seasonal downturn [32] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali roving has shown a stable decline, with demand for high-end products like wind power yarn performing relatively well [6] - The overall price of fiberglass is expected to maintain a weak and stable trend in the short term [6] Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market price remains stable, with a weekly production of 1781 tons and an operating rate of 60.13% [7] - The industry continues to face losses, with a production cost of 106,500 yuan/ton and a negative gross margin [7] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Beixin Building Materials (Buy), Weixing New Materials (Overweight), and China Jushi (Buy) with respective EPS forecasts for 2024A to 2027E [8]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 宏观定期 政策半月观—下半年政策有 4 大节点 近半月，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在伦敦举行，陆家嘴论坛召开。我们对每 半月重大政策进行跟踪：1）中央、部委重要会议与政策；2）地方政策；3） 行业与产业政策。本期为近半月（2025.6.9-6.22）的政策跟踪。 核心结论：总体看，近半月政策延续聚焦稳增长、扩内需，具体有 6 大焦点： 一是 6.9-10 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在伦敦举行，聚焦关税和稀土，本次 会议后中美关税水平保持现状，但随着 7.9（对全球）和 8.12（对中国）两个 暂缓期结束，继续紧盯后续美国与中国、欧盟等关税谈判。二是 6.17 总书记 出席第二节中国-中亚峰会并作主旨发言，继 4 月东南亚之行、5 月访问俄罗 斯，6 月来到中亚，也是今年以来第三次元首出访聚焦周边，此次峰会聚焦共 建"一带一路"、人员往来便利化、绿色矿产、贸易畅通等领域。三是 6.18 陆 家嘴论坛开幕，"一行一会一局"一把手出席开幕式并发表主题演讲，其中， 央行将在上海实施 8 项金融开放政策，金监总局聚焦支持上海金融开放，证 ...