Group 1: Currency and Policy Changes - The offshore RMB exchange rate surpassed the 7 mark for the first time in 15 months on December 25, 2025, indicating a continuous appreciation since mid-October[1] - The central bank is expected to implement a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate reduction in Q1 2026, alongside the introduction of more structural tools[1] Group 2: Real Estate and Sales Trends - The average weekly land transaction area in 100 cities increased by 102.8% month-on-month in December, although it remains at a five-year low with a year-on-year decline of 3.4%[1] - New home sales in 30 major cities saw a month-on-month increase of 45.8%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 25.6%[3] - Second-hand home sales in 18 key cities increased by 13.7% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 22.7%[3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 78.4%, while the operating rate of coking enterprises fell by 2.4 percentage points to 66.1%[2] - The operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 1.6 percentage points to 29.5%, and cement dispatch rates rose by 0.3 percentage points to 31.6%[2] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Prices for copper, rebar, and coking coal have risen, with LME copper prices increasing by 2.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 33.8%[5] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.7% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 17.2%[4] Group 5: Inventory and Logistics - Energy inventories, including coal at coastal power plants, decreased by 1.8% month-on-month, while U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories fell by 525,000 barrels to 1.687 billion barrels[6] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 20.6% month-on-month, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) rose by 1.7%[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhejiang Rongtai [5] Core Views - Zhejiang Rongtai plans to establish a joint venture with Weichuang Electric in Thailand to develop key components for robotics, aiming to enhance its product layout in the mechatronics market [1] - The company has made significant progress in its robotics strategy, with steady delivery of lead screws and successful collaborations with major robotics firms [1] - The financial outlook remains strong, with projected revenue growth and high profitability levels, particularly in the mica insulation materials sector [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 800 million - 2024: 1,135 million - 2025: 1,518 million - 2026: 2,059 million - 2027: 2,805 million - Year-over-year growth rates are expected to be 19.9% in 2023, 41.8% in 2024, 33.7% in 2025, 35.7% in 2026, and 36.2% in 2027 [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - 2023: 172 million - 2024: 230 million - 2025: 308 million - 2026: 415 million - 2027: 576 million - Year-over-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 28.4% in 2023, 34.0% in 2024, 34.0% in 2025, 34.5% in 2026, and 38.9% in 2027 [4][2] - The expected P/E ratios for 2025 to 2027 are 122, 91, and 65, respectively [2][4]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that since 2000, there have been five rounds of PPI recovery, with A-shares generally trending upwards during these periods, particularly in the first phase when PPI shows a month-on-month bottom, leading to a valuation recovery in A-shares, especially in small and mid-cap growth stocks, TMT, and media sectors [4] - In the second phase, as PPI rises year-on-year from the bottom to positive territory, the market continues to rise with a more balanced style, benefiting growth, consumption, and cyclical sectors such as electronics, communications, and power equipment [4] - The report anticipates that in 2026, PPI will be in the second phase, suggesting investment opportunities in growth, consumption, and cyclical sectors [4] Group 2: Financial Engineering - The market is expected to confirm its direction before the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.88% over the week, indicating a potential upward trend in sectors like small-cap, electronics, and machinery [6] - The report notes that while some indices are confirming downtrends, half of the industries are still showing upward trends, particularly in sectors like non-bank financials and energy [6] - A500 Index is projected to have a 12.9% expected return over the next year, supported by strong earnings and valuation growth, making it a suitable asset for risk diversification [12] Group 3: Coal Industry - The coal price is expected to stabilize around 750 RMB/ton for thermal coal and 1550-1600 RMB/ton for coking coal in 2026, with a focus on domestic capacity exit and overseas demand driven by AI [28] - The report warns of potential supply shortages in coal for power plants due to the risk of coal mine shutdowns in Indonesia, which could impact the coal supply for Java Island [31] - Current market conditions show a complete inversion between spot and long-term coal prices, indicating a potential bottoming out, with expectations for policy intervention to stabilize prices [34] Group 4: Electronics Industry - The report emphasizes the promising outlook for high-speed optical chips, driven by AI demand and the expected growth of the global EML laser chip market from 3.71 billion RMB in 2024 to 7.41 billion RMB by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.23% [18] - The demand for silicon photonic modules is expected to rise significantly, driven by the need for higher transmission rates in data centers and networks, with major companies ramping up production to meet this demand [21] - Companies like Coherent and Lumentum are expanding their production capacities to meet the growing demand for optical components, with significant orders for high-speed products expected to drive revenue growth [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a collective price increase across the component segment, with three lithium iron phosphate cathode manufacturers announcing production line maintenance [4] - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing price increases in polysilicon, silicon wafers, and batteries, providing a bottom support for price stabilization and recovery across downstream segments [14][15] - The report identifies three key focus areas: supply-side reform price increase opportunities, long-term growth opportunities from new technologies, and industrialization opportunities from perovskite GW-level layouts [15] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The electric power equipment and new energy sector saw a 4.1% increase from December 22 to December 26, 2025, with a cumulative increase of 42.1% for the year [10] 2. Core Insights of the Week 2.1 New Energy Generation 2.1.1 Photovoltaics - Polysilicon prices increased, with the average transaction price for n-type polysilicon at 53,900 RMB/ton, up 1.32% week-on-week [14] - N-type battery prices rose to 0.34 RMB per watt, with a price range of 0.32-0.34 RMB per watt for various sizes [14][15] - Major component manufacturers have responded to industry self-discipline by raising component prices, with increases of 0.02-0.04 RMB per watt [15] 2.1.2 Wind Power & Grid - Poland successfully allocated 3.4GW of capacity in its first offshore wind auction, marking a milestone in its energy transition [16] - Jiangsu province approved 1.0536GW of offshore wind projects, expected to enter construction in 2026/2027 [17] - The report recommends focusing on key players in the wind turbine sector, including Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Smart Energy [18] 2.1.3 Hydrogen & Energy Storage - The first integrated photovoltaic hydrogen production project in Xinjiang was launched, showcasing a complete industrial chain from green electricity to green hydrogen [20] - The report suggests focusing on leading equipment manufacturers and hydrogen compressor companies [20] - Energy storage project bidding prices for December ranged from 0.6442 to 0.77 RMB/Wh, with a recommendation to focus on companies with high growth certainty in large storage [28] 3. Photovoltaic Industry Price Dynamics - The report provides detailed price dynamics for the photovoltaic industry, indicating significant price movements across various components [34] 4. Important News of the Week - The report summarizes key developments in the new energy vehicle sector, including production line maintenance announcements from lithium iron phosphate manufacturers [29] - It also highlights significant investments and project launches in the energy storage and battery sectors [35][36]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Maintain Buy" [3] Core Insights - The new long-term electricity trading regulations, revised for the first time in five years, aim to promote market pricing and the entry of new entities. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued the "Basic Rules for Long-term Electricity Market," with local implementation details required by March 1, 2026. Long-term trading volume accounted for 95.9% of total market trading volume in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating the importance of this regulation in adapting to the full market entry of renewable energy and establishing a unified national electricity market [2][14] - The new regulations are expected to enhance revenue certainty for thermal and renewable energy companies. They allow for flexible pricing mechanisms linked to monthly coal price indices and spot market averages, reducing the impact of coal price fluctuations on thermal power profits. Green electricity trading is now integrated as a primary trading category, with clear pricing structures established [2][14] - The regulations expand the scope of trading participants to include new entities like virtual power plants and independent storage, defining their rights and obligations. They also eliminate the previously mandated time-of-use pricing for direct market participants, allowing for a more market-driven pricing mechanism [2][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electricity market is undergoing significant regulatory changes aimed at enhancing market efficiency and stability. The new rules are designed to accommodate the increasing integration of renewable energy sources and to create a more flexible and responsive pricing environment [2][14] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68 points, up 1.88%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4657.24 points, up 1.95%. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 3115.63 points, up 0.67%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.28 percentage points [62][63] Key Trading Data - In Jiangsu, the average price for centralized bidding in January 2026 was 324.71 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 19.9% year-on-year and 17% below the coal power benchmark price of 391 yuan per megawatt-hour. The total transaction volume was 60.92 billion kilowatt-hours, a decrease of 7.1% from January of the previous year [7][15][16] - In Guangdong, the average transaction price for 2026 was 372.14 cents per kilowatt-hour, reflecting a 5% decrease from the previous year and a 17.8% drop from the coal benchmark price of 453 cents per kilowatt-hour. The total transaction volume increased by 5.4% to 3594.37 billion kilowatt-hours [11][15]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 量化周报 市场有望节前确认方向 市场有望节前确认方向。本周（ 12.22-12.26），大盘震荡上行，上证指数 全周收涨 1.88%。在此背景下，中小 100、电子、机械、非银迎来日线级 别上涨。当下，我们认为市场震荡调整仍未结束的主要理由如下：1、目前 规模指数中只有上证指数、科创 50 确认日线级别下跌，从历史统计看， 其它规模指数跟随确认日线下跌的概率高；2、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、创业板指、深证成指已开始不创新高，M 头形态已现，未来下跌的 概率高；3、目前虽然有 14 个行业处于日线下跌中，但仍有二分之一的行 业处于日线上涨，而且有色、石油石化、化工、建材、轻工、电力设备及 新能源均处于超涨状态。不过由于近期中小 100、非银、电子、通信重新 确认了日线级别上涨，而且上证指数也处于确认日线上涨的边缘。因此， 我们认为市场有望节前确认方向：下周若继续上行，则日线上涨在节后得 以延续；若不能上行，则节后继续震荡调整。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Insights - The C-REITs market is showing signs of recovery, with notable performance in the affordable housing and industrial park sectors, while municipal water conservancy and energy infrastructure sectors have seen declines [2][11] - The total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 215.53 billion yuan, with an average market cap of about 2.8 billion yuan per REIT [2][11] - The report highlights three main investment strategies: focusing on policy-driven themes, recognizing the market's acknowledgment of the benefits of affordable housing, and monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances [3] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index increased by 1.56% this week, closing at 1014.8 points, while the CSI REITs closing index rose by 1.39% to 783.9 points [1][9] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has risen by 4.85%, while the closing index has decreased by 0.72% [1][9] C-REITs Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for C-REITs has shown a recovery trend, with 67 out of 78 listed REITs experiencing price increases this week, averaging a weekly gain of 1.61% [2][11] - The best-performing sectors this week include warehousing logistics, industrial parks, and affordable housing, while municipal water conservancy and energy infrastructure sectors faced declines [2][11] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with the top three being Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (10.8%), Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT (10%), and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT (8.8%) [3] - Price-to-NAV ratios range from 0.7 to 1.7, with the highest being Huaxia Anbo Warehousing REIT, Zhongjin Xiamen Anju REIT, and Jiashi Wumei Consumption REIT, all at 1.7 [3]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 有色金属 反内卷与逼仓情绪升温，铜价创历史新高 贵金属：长期宽松预期不变，金银再创新高。周内美国 2025 年三季度实际 GDP 环比折年率 初值 4.3%，大幅高于预期值 3.3%和前值 3.8%；实际 GDP 同比 2.3%，高于前值 2.1%和 2000 年至今的均值 2.2%。三季度 PCE 通胀、核心 PCE 通胀环比折年率分别为 2.8%、2.9%， 高于前值 2.1%、2.6%。若将净出口、存货变化、政府支出剔除，则三季度美国实际 GDP 环 比折年率为 2.6%，略高于二季度的 2.5%和 2022 年以来的均值 2.3%。与 GDP 增长形成反 差的在就业市场，11 月 ADP 就业人数仅-3.2 万人，季调后非农就业 6.4 万人，两项数据均 显示美国就业市场仍处于疲软状态，我们认为美联储仍有降息的必要性，流动性宽松预期仍 然利好金银价格上涨。此外，白银现货租赁利率在今年 10 月一度超过 35%，近期仍维持在 6%左右的高位，远高于正常融资成本，也反映出实物白银出借意愿极低，现货市场供应紧 张，本周白 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [7]. Core Insights - The coal price has continued to decline, with a significant drop of 144 CNY/ton from mid-November to the present, primarily due to lower-than-expected thermal power generation [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for either a significant drop in temperature or policy intervention to stabilize coal prices, as current market conditions show a complete inversion between spot and long-term contract prices [3][10]. - The report highlights that the coal mining sector is experiencing a supply tightening as many mines complete their annual production tasks, leading to a decrease in production capacity utilization [4][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 0.89%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.84 percentage points, ranking 28th among CITIC sectors [1][76]. - The average daily coal production reached a new high of 14.23 million tons in November, aligning with seasonal expectations [1]. Thermal Coal - The report notes that thermal coal prices have continued to decline, with a focus on marginal recovery in daily consumption [10]. - The report indicates that the market is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, with high-quality coal mines showing slight improvements in sales, but overall demand remains weak [13][38]. - As of December 26, the spot price for thermal coal was reported at 687 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 33 CNY/ton [33]. Coking Coal - The report states that coking coal prices are experiencing fluctuations, with some high-quality resources seeing improved sales while others continue to decline [38]. - The overall demand for coking coal remains limited, with downstream industries cautious in their purchasing decisions [43]. - As of December 26, the average profit per ton of coking coal has turned negative, indicating a challenging market environment for producers [67]. Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and others, based on their performance and market positioning [9]. - The focus is also on companies that are innovating in smart mining technologies, such as Keda Control [9]. Industry News - Recent developments include the launch of a major coal transportation base in Gansu and the commissioning of new power generation units, which are expected to impact coal demand positively [82][83].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Exchange rate appreciation has limited impact on the bond market, mainly affecting certificates of deposit. As funds remain loose and institutional indicator pressure eases after the New Year, the bond market is expected to continue its repair from short - to long - term. The 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to hit a new low in the first quarter or the first half of next year [4][17]. Summary by Related Aspects Bond Market Performance This Week - The bond market continued to fluctuate and slightly recover this week, with the short - end still stronger than the long - end. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds changed slightly by 0.7bps and - 0.2bps to 1.84% and 2.22% respectively compared with last week. The yields of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds rose slightly by 1.4bps and 1bps. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield dropped significantly by 6.8bps to 1.29%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit remained basically flat at 1.64% [1][7]. Impact of Exchange Rate Appreciation on the Bond Market Impact on Foreign Investment in Bonds - Exchange rate appreciation mainly has a negative impact on certificates of deposit, but the impact is in the second half and is expected to gradually subside after the first quarter of next year. Due to the continuous inversion of Chinese and foreign interest rates and the impact of forward exchange rates, the correlation between foreign investment in Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds and interest rates has significantly decreased in recent years. During the recent exchange rate appreciation, foreign investors did not increase their allocation of government bonds. The scale of foreign holdings of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds decreased from 2.92 trillion yuan in April to 2.75 trillion yuan in November. Foreign investment in domestic bonds has mainly been reflected in certificates of deposit in recent years. As the RMB exchange rate appreciates, the forward premium of the exchange rate has decreased, and foreign investors have continued to withdraw from certificates of deposit. The scale of foreign - held certificates of deposit decreased from 1.30 trillion yuan in April to 0.69 trillion yuan in November. If the current downward trend continues, the impact on certificates of deposit will gradually decrease [1][7]. Impact on Corporate Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange - Exchange rate appreciation changes corporate willingness to settle and sell foreign exchange, leading to an increase in net settlement volume, which in turn increases money creation and has a certain impact on funds. However, the impact is not large due to the limited scale. Exchange rate appreciation increases the settlement ratio of export enterprises and reduces the sale ratio of import enterprises, leading to an increase in the settlement - sale surplus. The 6 - month moving average of the settlement - sale surplus has increased from about $10 billion last year to $47.7 billion currently. Commercial bank settlement generates a similar money - creation function, increasing the demand for RMB funds and impacting liquidity. But the scale is limited. Assuming a monthly settlement - sale surplus of $50 billion, it corresponds to about 350 billion yuan in RMB, consuming about 40 billion yuan of base money [2][8]. Impact on Monetary Policy - China's monetary policy is mainly domestic - oriented, and the impact of exchange rate appreciation may be limited. The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary environment. Given the weak financing demand, loose liquidity is expected to continue. Even if the financing demand increases seasonally at the end of the year or the demand for foreign exchange settlement increases, the central bank may increase capital injection through various means, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, to maintain a generally loose capital environment [3][12]. Outlook for the Bond Market - With the continuous loosening of funds and the alleviation of institutional indicator pressure after the New Year, there is room for further decline in the yields of certificates of deposit and short - term credit bonds. The yield of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit is expected to fall to around 1.5%. The decline in short - term yields will enhance the relative value of long - term bonds. The issuance duration of government bonds may shorten. Banks' indicator pressure may ease around the end of the year, and the relatively high long - term bond yields will increase the allocation value for institutions such as insurance companies. As trading institutions reduce their positions, short - selling pressure will decrease, and both short - term and long - term bonds are expected to have investment opportunities [4][17].