证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 10 年 月 日 电力 新能源新格局：解码 19 省机制电价竞价结果 2026 年各地新能源竞价结果陆续公布，区域分化明显。截至 12 月 8 日，全国已 有 19 个省份陆续公布 2026 年增量新能源项目机制电价竞价结果，其中山东于 9 月 9 日首个公布，9 月 30 日云南公布，10 月甘肃、新疆、广东公布，11 月江西、 安徽、青海、黑龙江、上海、天津 6 省先后公布，12 月浙江、福建、河北、辽宁 等省陆续公布。整体来看，区域间资源禀赋、消纳能力和电网结构的差异导致各 地政策节奏与价格水平存在显著分化。 分析师 高紫明 新能源迈向精细化运营，从竞价结果来看后续区域分化预计进一步加大。 投资建议：各省 2026 年新能源竞价结果区域分化突出，整体表现为华东、华北 电价优于西部、南部；风电电价优于光伏。新能源市场化竞价引导供给过剩地区 延缓扩张节奏，消纳较好地区有望获得稳定效益，新能源盈利模式逐步清晰。推 荐优先关注拥有优质资源区位优势、项目开发效率高且融资成本低的绿电运营商， 尤其关注风电的相对优势，建议关注新天绿色能源、中闽 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Strategy - The report predicts that the 10-year government bond yield may drop to 1.6-1.7% in 2026, based on various economic indicators and trends [3][4] - Factors influencing this prediction include economic growth, inflation, and the trend of interest rates, with a potential decline in financing costs by 10 basis points [3] - The report suggests a strategic allocation towards long-term bonds, particularly in the first quarter of 2026, while noting potential uncertainties in policy and market conditions thereafter [4] Group 2: Light Industry Manufacturing - Hars (002615.SZ) - Hars is identified as a leading manufacturer of thermal cups, focusing on both OEM and its own brand development, with a strong competitive position in the market [5] - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with projected net profits of 142 million, 292 million, and 371 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year change of -50.6%, +106.0%, and +27.3% respectively [5] - The report assigns a "buy" rating with a target P/E of 16x for 2025, indicating confidence in the company's ability to navigate cost pressures and enhance profitability as its overseas operations ramp up [5] Group 3: Food and Beverage - Three Squirrels - The report discusses the opening of the first flagship store of Three Squirrels, which aims to create a community retail space with a focus on a diverse product range including fresh and prepared foods [6][9] - The store features a selection of 1,500 SKUs, with a pricing strategy that offers better value compared to competitors, indicating a strong market demand as evidenced by initial sales exceeding 1.26 million yuan within three days of opening [9] - This new store format is a strategic move towards a "full category + hard discount" approach, aiming to expand the company's market presence and optimize its supply chain [9] Group 4: Real Estate Sector Insights - The political bureau meeting emphasized a stable economic approach for 2026, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and implementing proactive fiscal and monetary policies [10][11] - The report suggests that the real estate sector remains a key economic indicator, with potential for policy-driven recovery, particularly in first and second-tier cities [11] - Investment recommendations include focusing on leading real estate companies and local state-owned enterprises, as well as property management firms that are likely to benefit from the anticipated policy shifts [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The opening of the first flagship store of the company in Wuhu marks a significant step in its transformation towards a multi-category retail model, focusing on a "15-minute community convenience life circle" and positioning itself as a "second kitchen at home" [1][8] - The store features a product mix of fresh, ready-made, and standard goods, with a total of 1,500 SKUs selected to cater to community needs [1][10] - The company has established a robust supply chain with over 90% of products coming from its own brands, enhancing its competitive edge in pricing and product quality [2][12] - The initial sales performance of the flagship store, achieving over 1.26 million yuan in sales within three days, indicates strong market demand and potential for future expansion [20] Summary by Sections Community Retail Model - The flagship store is strategically located in a community shopping area, designed to meet local consumer needs with a focus on convenience and accessibility [1][8] - The product assortment includes approximately 35% ready-made items, 25% fresh produce, and 40% standard goods, reflecting a significant shift from the company's previous focus on snacks [10][11] Supply Chain and Pricing Strategy - The company has developed a diverse brand matrix for its products, including fresh vegetables and staple foods, while maintaining competitive pricing compared to rivals like Dingdong and Hema [2][13] - The pricing strategy includes discounts for fresh produce, with a commitment to not sell overnight items, which helps in controlling waste and enhancing profitability [13][15] Operational Model and Future Outlook - The new store format represents a critical step in the company's strategy to expand into a full-category and hard-discount retail model, leveraging its supply chain to reduce operational costs [3][18] - The company aims to replicate its successful snack category operations across other product categories, enhancing its overall market presence and efficiency [18][19] - Future store openings in cities like Nanjing and Xuancheng are expected to create a systematic coverage network, further optimizing the supply chain [20]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is a leading manufacturer of thermal cups, primarily engaged in OEM production while simultaneously developing its own brands [1][13] - The global cup market is expected to reach USD 4.8 billion by 2025, indicating stable growth driven by consumer trends towards emotional value and lifestyle products [2] - The company has established strong partnerships with major clients and is expanding its overseas production capacity to mitigate tariff risks and enhance order fulfillment [3] Company Overview - The company was founded in 1985 and specializes in stainless steel vacuum thermal vessels, glass cups, aluminum bottles, and plastic cups, with over 80% of its revenue coming from thermal cups [1][13] - The sales model includes both OEM and self-branded products, with the latter including the domestic brand "Haers" and the Swiss brand "SIGG" acquired in 2016 [1][13] Industry Analysis - The thermal cup industry is experiencing structural upgrades and stable growth, with China being a core supplier [2] - The market is characterized by a shift from traditional durable goods to fast-moving consumer goods and fashion items, broadening the market boundaries [2] Competitive Advantage - The company has a well-established supply chain both domestically and internationally, benefiting from deep partnerships with leading brands like YETI and PMI [3] - The overseas production facilities in Thailand are in a rapid ramp-up phase, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures and enhance delivery stability to key clients [3] - The company is focusing on dual-brand development and multi-channel growth strategies, with significant upgrades to the Haers brand and successful operations of SIGG [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of CNY 142 million, CNY 292 million, and CNY 371 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 0.30, CNY 0.63, and CNY 0.80 [4] - The report assigns a target price of CNY 10.01 based on a P/E ratio of 16x for 2025, reflecting the company's strong manufacturing capabilities and customer barriers [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The Guosheng Fixed - income Fundamental High - frequency Index is stable, with the current period at 129.0 points (previous value 128.9 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 6.2 points. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with the signal factor at 3.6% (previous value 3.7%) [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Total Index - The Guosheng Fixed - income Fundamental High - frequency Index is stable. The current index is 129.0 points, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged [2][10]. Production - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.6, with a year - on - year increase of 5.1 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged. PTA开工率 increased to 73.8% from the previous 71.9% [2][10][16]. Real Estate Sales - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 41.1, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.3 points, and the decline rate remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased to 30.20,000 square meters from the previous 31.20,000 square meters [2][10][26]. Infrastructure Investment - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 122.3, with a year - on - year increase of 8.9 points, and the growth rate narrows. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased slightly to 27.9% from the previous 27.8% [2][10][40]. Exports - The export high - frequency index is 143.7, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6 points, and the growth rate narrows. The CCFI index decreased slightly to 1114.9 points from the previous 1121.8 points [2][10][42]. Consumption - The consumption high - frequency index is 120.8, with a year - on - year increase of 3.3 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged. The average daily box office of movies increased to 26,095 million yuan from the previous 15,036 million yuan [2][10][51]. CPI - The month - on - month CPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value 0.0%). The prices of vegetables and white - striped chickens increased slightly. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables rose to 5.9 yuan/kg from the previous 5.8 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens rose to 17.8 yuan/kg from the previous 17.5 yuan/kg [2][10][58]. PPI - The month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.2% (previous value 0.1%). The spot prices of copper and aluminum continued to rise. The LME copper spot settlement price increased to 11,428 US dollars/ton from the previous 10,917 US dollars/ton, and the LME aluminum spot settlement price increased to 2,858 US dollars/ton from the previous 2,803 US dollars/ton [2][10][62]. Transportation - The transportation high - frequency index is 133.2, with a year - on - year increase of 10.8 points, and the growth rate expands. However, the logistics performance declined. The metro passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased to 38.71 million person - times from the previous 39.97 million person - times, the highway logistics freight rate index decreased to 1053 points from the previous 1066 points, and the number of domestic flights decreased to 12,359 flights from the previous 12,484 flights [3][11][74]. Inventory - The inventory high - frequency index is 163.3, with a year - on - year increase of 7.6 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged. The electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to rise to 163,000 tons from the previous 147,000 tons [3][11][81]. Financing - The financing high - frequency index is 244.0, with a year - on - year increase of 30.7 points, and the growth rate expands. However, the financing of local government bonds and credit bonds declined. The net financing of local government bonds decreased to 60.5 billion yuan from the previous 325.9 billion yuan, and the net financing of credit bonds decreased to 58 billion yuan from the previous 120.7 billion yuan [3][11][93].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 08 年 月 日 宏观点评 通稿短、增量多—政治局会议 5 大信号 事件：12 月 8 日，政治局会议召开，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 核心观点：12 月政治局会议历来是"吹风会"，篇幅一般有限、没提到的 不代表不重要、不宜过分解读，即将召开的中央经济工作会议将作详细部 署。总体看，本次会议信息量不少，尤其是：1）较为少见的盘中发布通 稿，旨在提振信心、进一步凸显了稳股市的重要性；2）总定调偏积极、偏 扩张、偏刺激，包括实现"十五五"良好开局是硬要求，延续"四稳"，延 续"更加积极有为的宏观政策"，延续"更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策"，首提"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"，首提"加大逆周 期和跨周期调节力度"等；3）大原则上，"扩大内需"与"优化供给"并 重，"做优增量"与"盘活存量"并重，延续"两大更好统筹"（国内经济 工作 VS 国际经贸斗争，发展 VS 安全）；4）重点任务上，相比于"十五 五"规划建议稿，扩内需重回首位（突出内需主导），科技+产业次序仍靠 前（新动能从"加快培育"变为"加紧培育"），双碳移至民生前 ...

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend with significant sector performance divergence, led by non-ferrous metals, communication, and defense industries, while media, real estate, and beauty care sectors lagged behind [1][10][19] - The weekly trading volume reached a recent low of 1.56 trillion yuan on Thursday, indicating a continuation of low trading activity [1][10] - The current equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares is 2.74%, reflecting a slight recovery in market risk appetite with a weekly change of -2.85 basis points [1][10] Group 2: Global Equity Markets - Global equity markets mostly rose, with the South Korean KOSPI leading the gains at 4.42%, followed by Vietnam and Taiwan [3][29] - The U.S. stock indices saw slight increases, driven by rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, particularly after a significant drop in private sector employment [3][32] Group 3: Commodity Prices and Trends - Commodity prices saw a comprehensive increase, with Brent crude oil, London gold, LME copper, and CRB commodities rising by 0.87%, 1.24%, 3.65%, and 0.56% respectively [4][36] - LME copper prices reached a new high, reflecting supply shortages and heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][19] Group 4: Policy Events - Fujian province announced 12 measures to promote cross-strait integration, including support for Taiwanese enterprises [5][46] - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 reusable rocket marked a significant achievement in commercial aerospace [5][46]

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 08 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 利好 A 股的政策加码 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】政策半月观—利好 A 股的政策加码——20251207 【金融工程】当下的反弹大概率仍只是 30 分钟级别反弹——20251207 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周资金面好转，估值面弱化—— 20251206 【煤炭】聚焦 AI 带来的能源领域投资机会——20251207 【金融工程】行业 ETF 配置模型 2025 年超额 16.4%——20251205 【固定收益】单跌超长债背后的总量缺口和结构压力——20251207 【固定收益】信用如何突围——20251207 【固定收益】资金月初平稳，政府债融资显著回落——流动性和机构行 为跟踪——20251206 【建筑装饰】明年预计有多少保险资金增配建筑板块？——20251207 【纺织服饰】2026年度策略：推荐制造龙头，关注绩优品牌——20251206 【商贸零售】豫园股份（600655.SH）-置顶东方生活美学战略，文化引 领出海实现 0-1 突破——20251206 【电子】洁美科技（002859.SZ ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the Hainan sector and sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, while mid-term outlook favors new consumption growth, transformation recovery, overseas expansion, and policy benefits [5]. Core Insights - The snow holiday initiative has significantly boosted the ice and snow economy, with regions like Xinjiang and Jilin implementing snow holidays that have led to increased tourist numbers and spending [1][2]. - High-end jewelry brands such as Baolan and Linchao are expanding, with Baolan securing over 100 million yuan in Series A financing and Linchao planning to open a new store in East China [3][4]. - The report highlights a growing trend in both ice and snow tourism and winter escape travel during the New Year holiday, with significant increases in flight bookings to popular destinations [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the ice and snow tourism sector is gaining traction, with flight bookings to destinations like Harbin and Changchun seeing a rise, while southern regions are catching up in popularity [2]. - The introduction of snow holidays has led to a notable increase in visitor numbers and spending in regions like Xinjiang and Jilin, showcasing a positive consumer response [1]. Company Developments - Baolan Jewelry has completed a Series A financing round exceeding 100 million yuan, with plans for further expansion in high-end retail locations [3]. - Linchao Jewelry has also secured significant funding and is set to open its second store in East China, indicating strong growth potential in the luxury jewelry market [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors that are expected to perform well during the upcoming Spring Festival, particularly those benefiting from tax-free policies and improved fundamentals [5]. - It also suggests monitoring cyclical sectors such as duty-free, hotels, and restaurants for signs of recovery and growth [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall bond market is expected to strengthen gradually in the future due to increased capital supply and decreased financing demand, but there will be structural challenges, especially for ultra - long bonds. The adjustment of ultra - long bonds may be nearing the end, but their stabilization depends on the changes in the selling power of trading institutions. The slope of the yield curve next year may be more determined by regulations. The structural pressure on ultra - long bonds is expected to ease in mid - to late December. It is recommended to conduct right - side trading and wait for the market to stabilize before making allocations. The bond market is expected to have a trending market from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may hit a new low in the first quarter of next year [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Current Bond Market Situation - This week, the bond market saw a unilateral adjustment in ultra - long bonds. The 30 - year Treasury bond yield rose significantly by 7.2 bps to 2.26%, and the 50 - year Treasury bond yield soared by 9.7 bps. However, Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years and less remained stable, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising only slightly by 0.7 bps, and the yields of 1 - 3 - year Treasury bonds even declining slightly. Government financial bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, which are held more concentratedly by public funds, also adjusted along with ultra - long bonds. The yield of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit rose by 1 bps to 1.66% this week [1][8] 3.2 Reasons for the Overall Bond Market Strength 3.2.1 Capital Supply - The real estate slowdown will increase the capital supply in the bond market. The sum of the scales of household deposits, wealth management products, insurance, money market funds, and bond funds, which represents the capital source of the broad fixed - income market, showed a decline in growth in the first half of this year but has rebounded in recent months, mainly due to the impact of real estate. As household savings are relatively stable, but the structure of incremental household savings may change significantly, there is a high negative correlation between housing and low - risk financial assets. The recovery of real estate sales from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year diverted the capital inflow into broad fixed - income assets, but with the recent weakening of the real estate market, the capital inflow into broad fixed - income assets such as household deposits and insurance premiums is expected to increase again in the next few months [2][12] 3.2.2 Financing Demand - The decline in the social financing growth rate means that the growth rate of asset supply will slow down in the next few months. This year, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing rebounded from 8.0% at the end of last year to a maximum of 9.0% in the middle of this year, mainly driven by government bonds, with government bonds increasing by nearly 3 trillion yuan year - on - year. Assuming a fiscal deficit of 4%, a special Treasury bond of 2 trillion yuan, and new special bonds of 4.5 trillion yuan next year, government bonds will increase by about 500 billion yuan compared with this year, a significantly smaller increase than this year. If the non - government bond social financing increment remains the same as this year, the social financing growth rate may slow down again in the first half of next year [3][13] 3.3 Reasons for the Adjustment of Ultra - Long Bonds - Banks, especially large - scale banks, have taken on a large amount of long - term bonds, resulting in excessive pressure on some indicators such as △EVE. Recently, the slowdown in insurance premium income and the shift of asset allocation towards equities have led to insufficient allocation power from traditional ultra - long bond buyers such as insurance companies. After the positions of trading institutions became too concentrated, concentrated selling led to a rapid adjustment in ultra - long bonds [3][19] 3.4 Future Outlook for Ultra - Long Bonds - After rapid selling by trading institutions such as funds and securities firms, their positions have decreased significantly, reducing the room for further selling. As the yield of ultra - long bonds adjusts, their relative cost - effectiveness has changed. The spread between mortgage loans and 30 - year Treasury bonds is at the lowest level since the third quarter of 2017, and the spread between mortgage loans and 30 - year local government bonds is at the lowest level since relevant data became available, increasing the attractiveness of ultra - long bonds to allocation - oriented institutions. Therefore, the adjustment of ultra - long bonds may be nearing the end, but their stabilization still needs to be observed in terms of the selling power of trading institutions [4][19] 3.5 Outlook for the Bond Market Structure Next Year - The slope of the yield curve next year may be more determined by regulations. If regulations continue to impose the same constraints on interest - rate risk indicators as this year, large - scale banks may continue to sell ultra - long bonds in the market, leading to a steeper yield curve. If regulations are adjusted or the central bank broadens the maturity range of bond purchases, the steepness of the yield curve will improve. The adjustment of regulatory indicators and the timing of such adjustments are highly uncertain. It is expected that the pressure on the long end will ease from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, and the slope of the yield curve is expected to recover [4][21] 3.6 Short - Term Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The overall supply - demand pattern will continue to drive the bond market to strengthen, and the structural pressure is expected to ease in mid - to late December. In the short term, the pressure on ultra - long bonds caused by selling by large - scale banks and trading institutions such as funds and securities firms still exists. It is expected that as the pressure on large - scale banks' indicators eases and the cost - effectiveness of ultra - long bonds increases after adjustment, allocation - oriented institutions will gradually increase their allocations, and the pressure is expected to ease starting in mid - to late December. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct right - side trading and wait for the market to stabilize before making allocations [5][22]