跌价利空钝化，退潮方现珍珠 行情回顾（2025.5.6~2025.5.9）： 中信煤炭指数 3,191.92 点，上涨 1.47%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.53pct，位列中信板 块涨跌幅榜第 22 位。 近期，煤炭上市公司的 24 年年报&25 年一季报已披露完毕，我们从另外一个视角 对相关公司财报进行解析，总结如下： 谁是现金王？ ✓ "账面净现金"前 3：神华、陕煤、晋控； ✓ "账面净现金／净利"前 3：晋控、潞安、恒源； 谁的负债低？ ✓ "资产负债率"最低前 3：神华、晋控、电投； ✓ "资本负债率"最低前 3：潞安、晋控、神华； 谁的家底厚？ ✓ "专项储备"绝对额前 3：神华、陕煤、潞安； ✓ "吨煤专项储备"前 3：潞安、淮矿、恒源； 谁的潜力大？ ✓ 利润释放潜力前 3：昊华、伊泰、淮矿； 谁是分红王？ ✓ 近 3 年绝对额前 3：神华、陕煤、兖矿； ✓ 近 3 年比例前 3：冀中、神华、广汇； ✓ 24 年绝对额前 3：神华、陕煤、中煤； ✓ 24 年比例前 3：冀中、广汇、伊泰； ✓ 静态股息率前 3：伊泰、冀中、广汇； 24 年&25Q1 业绩均优于行业水平：电投、新集、神华、中 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 日月股份（603218.SH） 铸件龙头，受益于风电装机高增&大型化发展 事件：公司发布 2024 年年度报告与 2025 年一季度报告。2024 年全年 实现：1）营收 46.96 亿元，同比+0.87%；归母净利润 6.24 亿元，同比 +29.55%；扣非归母净利润 3.33 亿元，同比-21.57%。2）毛利率 17.34%， 同比-1.33pct；净利率 13.11%，同比+2.83pct。3）期间费用率为 7.97% （销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 0.35%、4.01%、4.84%、-1.23%， 同比分别变动-0.51pct，+0.22pct，-0.71pct，+1pct），同比基本不变。2025 年 Q1 实现：1）营收 13 亿元，同比+86.41%；归母净利润 1.21 亿元， 同比+39.14%；扣非净利润为 1.05 亿元，同比+49.42%。2）毛利率 15.53%，同比-6.24pcts；净利率 9.03%，同比-3.25pcts。 经营承压稳产，扩能增效迎增长。2024 年公司毛利 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 10 年 月 日 量化分析报告 择时雷达六面图：资金面中外资指标恢复 择时雷达六面图：基于多维视角的择时框架。权益市场的表现受到多维度 指标因素的共同影响，我们尝试从流动性、经济面、估值面、资金面、技 术面、拥挤度选取二十一个指标对市场进行刻画，并将其概括为"估值性 价比"、"宏观基本面"、"资金&趋势"、"拥挤度&反转"四大类，从而生成 [-1,1]之间的综合择时分数。 本周综合打分。本周市场的估值性价比有所下降，宏观基本面中性偏多， 市场的资金&趋势分数上升整体偏多，拥挤度&反转指标下降，综合打分位 于[-1,1]之间，当前的综合打分为 0.33 分，整体为看多观点。当前六面图 各个维度的观点如下： 流动性。本周货币强度、信用方向发出看空信号，货币方向、信用强度 发出看多信号，当前流动性得分为 0.00 分，综合来看信号中性。 经济面。本周增长方向、通胀方向与通胀强度指标发出看多信号，当前 经济面得分为 0.75 分，综合来看发出看多信号。 估值面。本周席勒 ERP、PB 与 AIAE 指标的打分均下降，当前市场的 估值面得分为 0.2 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 量化周报 市场可逢低布局 市场可逢低布局。本周（5.6-5.9），大盘震荡上行，上证指数全周收涨 1.92%。在此背景下，大部分指数迎来了一波 30 分钟级别回调。当下我 们认为，经历了贸易战的冲击后，市场的底部区间已然探明。短期市场到 了选择方向的时候：1、一方面大部分规模指数和行业的的日线级别下跌 只走了 1 浪结构，日线下跌结构不够充分；2、另一方面经历了近期的震 荡上行后，很多指数和板块马上要形成新的日线级别上涨，比如上证 50、 纺服、轻工、汽车等板块。未来，不论哪种情况出现，投资者都可逢低布 局，因为即便是继续日线级别下跌，空间和时间都有限。中期来看，上证 指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷 纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚开 始；此外，已有 21 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 8 个行业周线上涨只 走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚开始，而且还是个普涨格局。 中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指数观察。截至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current loose funds have not been fully reflected in the bond market. The bond market is expected to develop from short - term to long - term, with the curve likely to first show a bullish steepening and then a bullish flattening. The overall interest rate downward trend remains unchanged [3][5][24] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - This week, funds were loose, and the short - end trend was significantly stronger than the long - end. After the holiday, the R001 and R007 dropped to 1.52% and 1.58% respectively, driving the short - term interest rates to decline significantly. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit (CD) dropped 7.5bps to 1.66% this week. Short - term interest rates and short - term credit also decreased significantly. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds rose slightly by 1.1bps and 1.9bps to 1.64% and 1.84% respectively [1][8] Reasons for Loose Funds - Seasonally, funds are loose in the first and middle of May. The central bank announced a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut this week, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. Even if considering the maturity of MLF (125 billion yuan) and repurchase (90 billion yuan) this month and assuming a half - volume continuation, the net capital injection from the reserve requirement ratio cut and repurchase is still over 50 billion yuan. Calculated with the March money multiplier of 8.65, it can support about 4.3 trillion yuan in financing demand. Since the social financing scale in May last year was only 2 trillion yuan, the current loose funds situation will remain until before the end - of - quarter impact [2][9] Impact on the Bond Market Quantity Perspective - As the capital price drops, the spreads between CDs, short - term credit, etc., and funds have turned positive, meaning that leveraging can effectively increase returns. Although the current leverage level has rebounded, it is not significantly higher than previous years. The daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase on May 9 was about 6.5 trillion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year [3][12] Price Perspective - Short - term interest rates still have room to decline further. The 1 - year CD is expected to drop to around 1.6%. Based on the average spread of about 9.5bps between the 1 - year AAA CD and overnight funds in the past year, if the overnight interest rate stabilizes at around 1.5% and the R007 at around 1.6%, the 1 - year AAA CD rate may be around 1.6%. Currently, the CD rate has dropped to 1.66% [3][13] Short - Term Bond Interest Rates - The 1 - year treasury bond and 1 - year AAA medium - term note are expected to drop to around 1.2% and 1.6% respectively. The spread between the 1 - year AAA CD and the 1 - year treasury bond has narrowed to 24bps, the lowest since 2023. If the spread returns to the average level of about 42bps since 2023, a 1.6% CD rate may correspond to a 1.2% 1 - year treasury bond rate. Credit bonds and CD rates are basically the same, so as the CD rate drops to around 1.6%, the same - maturity high - grade credit bonds are also expected to reach the corresponding level [4][19] Long - Term Bond Interest Rates - The decline in short - term interest rates will protect long - term interest rates and promote a significant recovery in the credit bond curve slope. If the 2 - year treasury bond drops to around 1.2%, combined with the average spread of 44bps between the 10 - year and 2 - year treasury bonds since 2023, the corresponding 10 - year treasury bond will be around 1.64%, indicating limited adjustment pressure on long - term bonds. The decline in short - term bond interest rates will bring better investment opportunities for 3 - 5 - year interest - rate bonds and 3 - 5 - year secondary perpetual bonds. The spread between the 5 - year and 1 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds has rebounded to around 20bps, more than 20bps higher than the low point in February, and the long - end allocation value of secondary perpetual bonds is emerging [4][21] Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to develop from short - term to long - term. The loose funds protect the short - end. The current CD rate is higher than the capital price, allowing leveraging to allocate CDs to increase returns. The spread between CDs and short - term treasury bonds has reached a low in recent years, making short - term treasury bonds more cost - effective than CDs for bank self - operated funds. The market leverage is also expected to gradually recover. The decline in short - term interest rates will increase the term spread, protect long - term interest rates, and enhance the allocation cost - effectiveness of 3 - 5 - year interest - rate bonds and credit bonds, gradually realizing the trend of the bond market first showing a bullish steepening and then a bullish flattening [5][24]

建筑装饰 基金经理薪酬与基准强挂钩下，建筑板块哪些标的有望获增配？ 本周核心观点：本周证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，着 力推动基金公司从"重规模"向"重回报"转变，其中规定公募基金经理 薪酬与基准强挂钩，预计主动权益类基金经理为了避免产品业绩低于基准 过多而对绩效薪酬产生较大负面影响，将尽可能让持仓结构贴近基准，持 仓结构变化有望带来市场结构性投资机会。基于基金 2024 年报数据，有 4020 个主动权益基金基准中包含沪深 300 指数，这些基金的基准中沪深 300 指数平均权重 61%。我们假设主动权益类基金按照规模的 90%去配 置基准（假设后续基准不变），则合计将配置沪深 300 指数 1.65 万亿元， 而主动权益类基金合计持有沪深 300 成份股市值 1.34 万亿元，因此可测 算后续主动权益类基金需增配沪深 300 指数 3036 亿元。主动权益类基 金对建筑板块持股比例为 0.71%，显著欠配，如后续主动权益基金规模的 90%按照基准及沪深 300 中建筑板块权重来配置，合计带来建筑板块资金 增配规模为 218 亿元（约占建筑沪深 300 标的自由流通盘市值的 6.5%）。重点 ...

分地区和业务模式来看： 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 纺织服饰 周专题：Puma 发布 2025Q1 季报，表现符合公司预期 【本周专题】 Puma 2025Q1 业绩发布，整体表现符合预期。Puma 披露 2025Q1 季报，货币 中性基础上公司营收同比增长 0.1%至 20.76 亿欧元，毛利率同比略下降 0.6pcts 至 47%，经营利润同比下降 63.7%至 0.6 亿欧元，经营利润率同比下降 4.8pcts 至 2.8%，净利润同比下降 99.5%至 50 万欧元，根据公司披露期内由于全球经 济环境的波动（尤其是美国与中国市场），公司营收表现同比持平，与此同时随 着公司推动 DTC 业务的增长，公司期内费用率提升。从营运层面来看，截止 2025 年 3 月末公司库存同比增长 16.3%至 20.8 亿欧元，主要系在途库存增加所 致。2025Q1 的表现整体符合公司预期，当前公司预计 2025 年营收同比增长低 到中单位数。 ➢ 2025Q1 美国/中国销售低迷，公司持续跟进关税政策变化。货币中性基础 上 2025Q1 公司 EMEA 地区营 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 1、FV-OCI 浮盈情况 1）从 FV-OCI 资产浮盈的存量规模来看，国有大行仍占据绝对优势。建 设银行和农业银行的 FV-OCI 浮盈余额位居前列，截至 2024 年末余额超 过 500 亿元。除此之外，交通银行、招商银行、中信银行、宁波银行的浮 盈余额也均突破百亿门槛。农商行中沪农商行、渝农商行浮盈余额较高， 2024 年末分别达 78 亿元和 50 亿元。 2）从整体情况看，截至 2024 年末，城农商行的 FV-OCI 浮盈占利润比 重处于较高水平。其中，个别城农商行的这一比例尤为突出，兰州银行 24A 浮盈/利润比例达到 126.9%（下同），沪农商行（63.6%）、浙商银行（58%）、 青岛银行（52.1%）、齐鲁银行（51.6%）、宁波银行（51%）、瑞丰银行 （48.1%）、渝农商行（43.1%）、重庆银行（39.7%），FV-OCI 浮盈占利润 比重较高。 3）从资本补充效应来看，部分城商行与农商行通过 FV-OCI 账户积累的 浮盈对核心一级资本的增厚作用显著。数据显示，在 2024 年债券牛市背 ...

【腾讯开源定制化视频模型 HunyuanCustom，擅长人物一致性和多模 态】5 月 9 日，腾讯混元开源多模态定制化视频模型 HunyuanCustom，专门 解决一致性问题，而且支持多模态输入。该模型基于混元模型，通过 LLaVA 图文对齐模块与身份增强系统，确保生成视频中人物形象跨场景、跨动作保 持高度统一。解决基本图文生成问题之后，HunyuanCustom 配备 AudioNet 音频驱动模块与视频条件注入系统，分别实现音频驱动和视频驱动的视频定 制。实测中，该模型在身份一致性（Face-Sim 和 DINO-Sim）、文字与视频 内容的匹配度（CLIP-B-T）和视频画面的时间连贯性（Temp-Consis）方面 均达到业界领先水平。 【Lightricks 正式发布最新 AI 视频生成模型——LTX Video 130 亿参数模 型】Lightricks 日前发布 130 亿参数 AI 视频生成模型 LTX Video（LTXV- 13B）。该模型在生成高质量 AI 视频方面较现有同类模型提升 30 倍，并且 能在消费级 GPU，如 RTX 3090、4090、5090 上运行，而无需依赖昂贵 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, including High Energy Environment and Huicheng Environmental [6][7]. Core Insights - The environmental industry is experiencing a transformation driven by deepening pollution prevention measures and low-carbon investments, with a focus on green development [1]. - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with historically low interest rates, making high-dividend and growth-oriented assets attractive [2]. - The report highlights the importance of the newly proposed sustainable disclosure standards for enterprises, which aim to enhance transparency regarding climate-related risks and opportunities [10][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for companies such as Huicheng Environmental, High Energy Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, indicating strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [6][7]. Industry Performance - The environmental sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 3.32%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.40% and the ChiNext Index by 0.05% [3][35]. - Key sub-sectors showed positive growth, particularly monitoring (5.65%) and waste treatment (3.24%) [3]. Policy Developments - The Ministry of Finance issued a draft for the "Sustainable Disclosure Standards No. 1 - Climate," which outlines how companies should disclose climate-related risks and impacts [10][20]. - The Guangxi Autonomous Region's plan for air pollution prevention emphasizes strict control measures and accountability for pollution management [21][32]. Market Trends - The report notes that the environmental sector's valuation and institutional holdings are at historical lows, suggesting a potential for continued rebound [33]. - Companies like High Energy Environment and Huicheng Environmental are positioned to benefit from increased demand for waste treatment and recycling solutions [36]. Key Company Highlights - High Energy Environment is focusing on hazardous waste resource utilization and has a strong project pipeline, which is expected to accelerate revenue growth [36]. - Huicheng Environmental is advancing in the hazardous waste sector with significant projects and innovative technologies for plastic recycling, indicating robust growth prospects [36].