Strategy Overview - The report analyzes the historical occurrences of the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing an "eight consecutive days of gains" scenario, providing insights into market behavior and potential future trends [1][4][32]. Historical Performance of "Eight Consecutive Gains" - The first occurrence from November 14 to November 23, 2006, was during the second wave of a bull market, driven by strong bank stock performance as banks prepared for IPOs [1][15]. - The second occurrence from January 28 to February 6, 2013, marked the end of a rebound phase after a significant decline, with the index facing resistance at a double top before retreating [2][16]. - The third instance, known as "nine consecutive gains," occurred from March 11 to March 23, 2015, as part of a strong upward breakout in a bull market, catalyzed by monetary policy easing and reform announcements [3][21]. - The fourth instance, "eleven consecutive gains," from December 28, 2017, to January 12, 2018, was characterized by a false breakout at a major resistance level, leading to a significant correction [4][24]. - The fifth occurrence from February 6 to February 23, 2024, was an early-stage rebound amid economic concerns, with the index showing signs of a potential upward trend but later facing downward pressure [3][27]. Current Market Context - The current "eight consecutive gains" scenario, starting December 17, 2025, is set against a backdrop of weak economic fundamentals and moderate liquidity, with the RMB appreciating primarily due to short-term settlement factors [6][32]. - The technical characteristics of the current index movement suggest an upward continuation pattern, although it is not in a strong upward trend compared to previous bull markets [6][32]. - The cumulative gain during this current "eight consecutive gains" is notably lower than in past occurrences, indicating a cautious outlook for sustained upward momentum [6][32]. Market Performance and Policy Events - The A-share market has shown a significant rebound, with trading volumes returning to 2 trillion RMB, driven by the appreciation of the RMB and sector-specific performances, particularly in commercial aerospace and metals [7][35]. - The report highlights a divergence in sector performance, with notable gains in industries such as non-ferrous metals and electric equipment, while consumer sectors are beginning to realize profits from previous policy-driven gains [8][44]. - The report also notes that the overall market risk appetite has slightly increased, as indicated by the A-share equity risk premium (ERP) [7][35].

Core Insights - The report highlights that Jitu Express (01519.HK) is a rapidly growing global express delivery company originating from Southeast Asia, with a strong presence in 13 countries, benefiting from the rise of e-commerce and social media platforms in the region, as well as profitability recovery in China and explosive growth in new markets [2][3]. Company Overview - Jitu Express is positioned to leverage three key growth drivers: the booming e-commerce market in Southeast Asia, the recovery of profitability in China due to reduced competition, and the rapid expansion of e-commerce in new markets [2][3]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Jitu Express from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be $369 million, $563 million, and $750 million, representing year-on-year growth rates of 84.3%, 52.6%, and 33.1% respectively [3]. - The expected adjusted EPS for the same period is $0.040, $0.061, and $0.081 per share [3]. Valuation and Investment Rating - Given the high growth potential in Southeast Asia and the Latin America and Middle East markets, the company is expected to command a valuation premium. The target P/E ratio for 2026 is set at 27x, based on the projected adjusted EPS of $0.061 [3]. - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Jitu Express, indicating a favorable outlook for the company's stock performance [3].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report discusses the recent depreciation of the RMB against the USD, primarily due to a weaker dollar and concentrated settlement activities. It forecasts a stable to slightly appreciating RMB in 2026, with expectations of it remaining below 7 at times, but overall volatility is anticipated, making significant unilateral appreciation unlikely. The report advises a cautious optimism regarding the RMB's performance [4]. - The report highlights four significant changes in the macroeconomic landscape over the past two weeks, including the RMB's continued appreciation, improvements in land transactions, slight recovery in real estate sales, and rising prices of bulk commodities driven by a reduction in internal competition [5]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights Energy Sector - The report emphasizes the high demand for large-scale energy storage in both domestic and international markets, predicting a significant growth phase for the energy storage sector in 2026. It suggests focusing on domestic large-scale storage and overseas storage opportunities, particularly in AI-integrated storage solutions and residential storage in Australia and Europe [10]. - The electricity sector is expected to see a balance in supply and demand in 2026, with a projected electricity consumption growth rate of 5.2% for 2025. The report notes a restructuring of profitability models in thermal power and suggests monitoring high-dividend thermal power leaders and stable electricity price companies [11]. Food and Beverage Sector - The report outlines the historical development of Huaiqi Mountain, a leading player in the Chinese yellow wine industry, and its strategic focus on high-end, youthful, and nationwide market penetration. It reports a record revenue of 1.631 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.6% [15]. - The company is positioned as a new revenue leader in the yellow wine sector, with a market share of 16.51% in 2023, and is expected to maintain steady profit growth in the coming years [16]. Electronics and Power Equipment - The report details the growth trajectory of Zhuhai Guanyu, a leading consumer battery supplier, which has seen a 21.2% increase in revenue to 10.321 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025. The company is expected to benefit from the AI-driven innovation cycle in consumer electronics [17]. - The report highlights the strategic partnership between Zhejiang Rongtai and Weichuang Electric to establish a joint venture focused on the development of key components for intelligent robots, enhancing their product offerings in the robotics sector [27]. Agriculture and Livestock - The report notes a continued low price for live pigs, with a recent price of 12 yuan/kg, indicating a potential rebound in prices leading up to the Spring Festival. It suggests that investors should consider opportunities in low-cost pig farming companies [22]. - The report also discusses the stable pricing of enoki mushrooms and the upcoming market entry of new products like winter worm summer grass, indicating strong growth potential in the mushroom sector [23]. Energy Sector (Continued) - The report mentions Jiufeng Energy's progress in its special gas business in Hainan, with expectations for steady growth in LNG and LPG businesses, projecting net profits of 1.75 billion yuan in 2025 [25].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Insights - The company, Kuaijishan, is positioned as a leader in the Chinese yellow wine industry, emphasizing high-end, youthful, and national strategies to drive growth [1][4]. - In 2024, Kuaijishan is projected to achieve a record revenue of 1.631 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.6%, with a net profit of 196 million yuan, up 17.74% [1][4]. - The yellow wine industry is experiencing a gradual transformation, with a market size of 21 billion yuan in 2023, showing a slight increase of 2.1% year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Kuaijishan has a rich history of over 280 years, evolving through three key phases: initial establishment, capital integration, and innovation transformation [1][15]. - The company is recognized as a "Chinese Time-honored Brand" and has received multiple accolades, including being the designated yellow wine for significant national events [14][19]. Industry Analysis - The yellow wine market is characterized by a high concentration, with the top three companies' market share increasing from 18.46% in 2016 to 44.08% in 2023 [2]. - The number of large-scale yellow wine enterprises has decreased from 112 to 81 between 2016 and 2023, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the industry [2]. Competitive Advantages - Kuaijishan leverages its strong brand heritage and diverse product matrix to cater to both high-end and younger consumer segments [3][4]. - The company has seen significant growth in its mid-to-high-end product lines, with revenue contributions of 1.065 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 31.29% increase year-on-year [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to maintain steady growth, with projected net profits of 214 million yuan, 235 million yuan, and 260 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.14%, 9.99%, and 10.54% [4][5].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 29 年 月 日 宏观点评 人民币汇率"破 7"：原因、展望、影响 事件：近期人民币汇率持续升值，12.26 盘中离岸人民币一度升破 7.0。 核心结论：近期人民币兑美元汇率持续升值，主因美元走弱+集中结汇； 展望 2026 年，人民币有望整体稳中有升、震荡偏升、并可能阶段性处于 7 下方，但全年走势大概率偏震荡，较难持续性的、大幅度单边升值，也 即乐观中保持谨慎。对权益市场，人民币升值利好 A 股，并对成长股更有 利，对大小盘风格影响不显著；对国内债市，人民币升值的影响并不显著。 1、近期人民币汇率持续升值：美元走弱+集中结汇是主因。 近期人民币兑美元汇率小幅升值，12 月 26 日，离岸人民币对美元汇率升 破 7.0 整数关口，触及 6.996 水平，在岸人民币也探至 7.0052，汇率"破 7"创下 14 个月以来新高，主因在于两方面： （2）人民币汇率展望：稳中有升、震荡偏升，有望阶段性处于 7 下方 >短期看，历史经验显示结汇需求的增加通常可以持续到春节，而 2026 年 春节的时间较晚（2 月 17 日），这也意味着未来 1-2 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant growth opportunity in the energy storage sector, particularly in domestic large-scale storage and overseas energy storage markets, driven by favorable policies and increasing demand [1][11][19] - The domestic energy storage market is expected to see a substantial increase in installed capacity, with projections of a 111% year-on-year growth to 283.63 GWh in 2026 [4][42] - The overseas energy storage market is also anticipated to grow, with AI-integrated storage solutions expected to contribute significantly to demand in the U.S. [5][46] Domestic Large-Scale Storage - The domestic market is currently benefiting from policy incentives, leading to a confirmed upward trend in independent energy storage capacity [1][19] - The report notes that the price transmission from lithium carbonate and battery cell price increases is proceeding smoothly, with lithium carbonate prices rising to 92,600 CNY per ton by December 2025 [2][19] - The report anticipates that the independent energy storage capacity will continue to grow, supported by decreasing electricity prices for industrial and commercial users [3][38] Price Transmission and Subsidy Sustainability - The report estimates that the price increase of energy storage cells can be transmitted at a range of 0.05-0.1 CNY/Wh, with a 1 CNY/Wh increase in cell costs leading to a decrease in internal rate of return (IRR) by approximately 0.7% [2][35] - The sustainability of capacity price subsidies across provinces is supported by a general decline in electricity prices for industrial users, indicating that the subsidy mechanisms are likely to remain in place [3][38] Market Performance and Trends - The energy storage sector has significantly outperformed the broader market, with a 56.9% increase in the storage index compared to a 16.4% increase in the CSI 300 index from January to December 2025 [11][17] - Key players in the domestic large-scale storage market, such as Hai Bo Si Chuang and Ningde Times, have secured substantial supply agreements, reflecting confidence in the market's growth potential [19] Long-Term Outlook - The report conservatively estimates that the domestic energy storage market will see an average annual increase of over 200 GWh in installed capacity in the long term, driven by the need for renewable energy integration [4][42][45] - The AI-integrated storage solutions are projected to account for a significant portion of the U.S. energy storage demand by 2028, with estimates suggesting that they will represent 40% of total demand [5][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency fundamental data from December 22, 2025, to December 28, 2025. The Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is stable, but the year - on - year increase has narrowed, and the long - short signal of interest - rate bonds has been adjusted down. Most sub - indices show changes in growth rates, including narrowing year - on - year increases or expanding decreases [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.3 points (previous value: 129.2 points), with a year - on - year increase of 6.1 points (previous value: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is adjusted down, with a signal factor of 3.2% (previous value: 3.4%) [9]. 3.2 Production:开工率多数回落 (Most Operating Rates Decline) - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.8 (previous value: 127.7), with a year - on - year increase of 4.9 points (previous value: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. Operating rates such as electric furnace, polyester, semi - tire, full - tire, PTA, and PX have changed, with most showing a decline [9][11][16]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales:商品房成交面积小幅上升 (Slight Increase in Commercial Housing Transaction Area) - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 40.7 (previous value: 40.8), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.5 points (previous value: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline has expanded. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 41.4 million square meters (previous value: 34.9 million square meters), and the land premium rate of 100 large and medium - sized cities is 1.2% (previous value: 1.7%) [9][11][29]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment:石油沥青开工率回升 (Recovery of Asphalt Operating Rate) - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 122.0 (previous value: 122.1), with a year - on - year increase of 8.3 points (previous value: 8.5 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The operating rate of asphalt is 31.3% (previous value: 27.6%) [9][11][39]. 3.5 Export:运价指数小幅上行 (Slight Increase in Freight Rate Index) - The export high - frequency index is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a year - on - year increase of 0.3 points (previous value: 0.4 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The CCFI index is 1146.7 points (previous value: 1124.7 points), and the RJ/CRB index is 300.6 points (previous value: 293.9 points) [9][11][46]. 3.6 Consumption:日均电影票房回升 (Recovery of Daily Average Movie Box Office) - The consumption high - frequency index is 121.1 (previous value: 121.1), with a year - on - year increase of 3.3 points (previous value: 3.4 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The daily average movie box office is 10,811 million yuan (previous value: 9,836 million yuan) [9][11][56]. 3.7 CPI:水果、鸡肉价格上涨 (Increase in Fruit and Chicken Prices) - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.6 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.8 yuan/kg) [10][11][63]. 3.8 PPI:铜铝现货、原油价格上涨 (Increase in Copper, Aluminum Spot, and Crude Oil Prices) - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.1% (previous value: 0.1%). The spot settlement price of LME copper is 12,088 US dollars/ton (previous value: 11,739 US dollars/ton), the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,916 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2,855 US dollars/ton), and the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 62 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 60 US dollars/barrel) [10][11][69]. 3.9 Transportation:客运量全面上涨 (Comprehensive Increase in Passenger Volume) - The transportation high - frequency index is 133.9 (previous value: 133.7), with a year - on - year increase of 11.0 points (previous value: 11.0 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The passenger volume of subways in first - tier cities is 3,905 million person - times (previous value: 3,863 million person - times), the highway logistics freight rate index is 1052 points (previous value: 1051 points), and the number of domestic flights is 12,353 (previous value: 12,172) [10][11][80]. 3.10 Inventory:纯碱库存小幅回落 (Slight Decline in Soda Ash Inventory) - The inventory high - frequency index is 163.7 (previous value: 163.6), with a year - on - year increase of 7.4 points (previous value: 7.4 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The inventory days of PTA are 3.6 days (previous value: 3.8 days), and the soda ash inventory is 146.9 million tons (previous value: 151.6 million tons) [10][11][87]. 3.11 Financing:地方债融资由正转负 (Local Government Bond Financing Turns Negative) - The financing high - frequency index is 245.9 (previous value: 245.2), with a year - on - year increase of 30.9 points (previous value: 30.9 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The net financing of local government bonds is - 3200 million yuan (previous value: 28100 million yuan), and the net financing of credit bonds is 40800 million yuan (previous value: 57500 million yuan) [10][11][98].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [6]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading player in the consumer battery sector, leveraging innovation and resilience to expand into multiple fields [1]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the acceleration of AI penetration in consumer electronics, which is anticipated to drive new growth cycles [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its technological barriers through substantial R&D investments, particularly in solid-state batteries and steel-shell batteries [2]. - The company is also strategically positioning itself in the energy storage battery sector, which is expected to see increased demand due to the global green transition [3]. - Financial forecasts indicate robust revenue and profit growth, with projected revenues of 143.9 billion, 179.9 billion, and 221.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1998, the company has grown to become a global leader in lithium batteries, particularly in the consumer electronics sector, achieving a market share of 31.10% in notebook and tablet batteries and 8.18% in smartphone batteries by 2023 [15][17]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with significant ownership by its founder and management team, ensuring continuity and strategic direction [20]. Industry Dynamics - The global consumer electronics market is projected to grow from 810 billion USD in 2024 to 1.4 trillion USD by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.68% [2]. - The transition to high-quality development in the lithium battery industry is being driven by technological innovations, particularly in solid-state batteries and closed-loop supply chains [12]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 10.321 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.2%, with a net profit of 387 million yuan, up 44.4% year-on-year [1]. - Future revenue projections indicate a growth trajectory with expected revenues of 143.9 billion yuan in 2025, 179.9 billion yuan in 2026, and 221.9 billion yuan in 2027, alongside significant profit increases [4][10].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The public utility sector experienced a modest increase of 0.92% from January to September 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 17.02 percentage points, with total revenue reaching 1.381783 trillion yuan, a slight year-on-year growth of 0.02% [1][13] - The overall profitability of the power sector remained stable, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 172.32 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.43% increase year-on-year [1][13] - The electricity consumption growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 was 4.6%, with a notable decline in the elasticity coefficient to 0.88, indicating a shift towards balanced supply and demand in the electricity market [2] Group 2: Thermal Power - The thermal power sector reported a net profit of 71.12 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 15.83% increase year-on-year, supported by low coal prices [1][20] - The overall revenue for the thermal power sector was 905.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.08% year-on-year, while operating costs fell by 6.15% to 745.64 billion yuan [20] - The sector is expected to see a restructuring of its profit model, with a focus on high-dividend thermal power leaders and companies in regions with stable electricity prices [3] Group 3: Renewable Energy - The wind power sector achieved a net profit of 22.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.67%, with revenue rising by 29.98% to 108.09 billion yuan [1][28] - The solar power sector, however, faced challenges with a revenue decline of 18.63% to 26.10 billion yuan, despite a significant profit increase of 67.57% to 2.90 billion yuan [1][28] - The introduction of market-oriented policies and the acceleration of green energy subsidies are expected to improve cash flow for renewable energy companies [3] Group 4: Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector is projected to see significant growth, with an expected operational capacity of 110 million kilowatts by 2030, driven by the increasing importance of nuclear energy in the context of AI competition [4] - The marketization of nuclear power pricing is gradually increasing, with expectations for price rebounds in Guangdong province due to policy changes [4] - Investment opportunities are recommended in nuclear power operators and companies involved in nuclear fusion and uranium mining [4] Group 5: Hydropower - The hydropower sector reported a revenue of 148.76 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.56%, and a net profit of 51.32 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.30% increase [1][37] - The sector's stability and high dividend yield make it an attractive investment, especially in a fluctuating market environment [3][37] - Companies in the hydropower sector are encouraged to maintain strong dividend policies to attract investors [3] Group 6: Natural Gas - The natural gas sector is expected to recover profitability as global LNG production ramps up, with a projected oversupply of 65 billion cubic meters by 2030 [3] - The implementation of pricing reforms in various cities is alleviating margin pressures for city gas companies, leading to increased sales volumes [3] - Investment focus is recommended on high-quality city gas leaders with stable dividend policies [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in chemical modular manufacturing with excellent profitability, benefiting from increased investments by core clients in China, leading to significant growth in contract signings and revenue [1][24]. - The industrial modularization penetration rate is continuously increasing, providing a stable order source for the company's main business [2]. - The company plans to raise 750 million yuan through convertible bonds to build a new base in Nantong, which will expand its capacity for large module manufacturing and tap into the nuclear power sector as a new growth point [3][4]. - The nuclear module business is projected to contribute an additional 460 million yuan in performance by 2025, driven by contracts with major nuclear power operators [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Modular Manufacturing Leader with Excellent Profitability - The company has established a full industry chain layout in chemical EPFCO, integrating design, procurement, modularization, construction, and maintenance [14]. - The company has seen rapid revenue growth due to increased investments from core clients like BASF and Invista, with a total contract amount of 4.2 billion yuan in 2022, doubling its total revenue from 2021 [24][25]. - The company's profitability is superior to its peers, with a gross margin consistently maintained between 15%-20% since 2021, and a projected gross margin of 16.1% for 2024 [30]. 2. Continuous Improvement in Industrial Modularization Penetration - Modular construction offers significant advantages over traditional methods in cost control, construction efficiency, and operational performance, leading to a stable demand for the company's main business [2]. - The company has successfully completed several benchmark large modular projects, enhancing its technical capabilities and establishing stable partnerships with multinational chemical giants [2]. 3. Fundraising for Nantong Base to Enter Nuclear Power Sector - The Nantong base is expected to significantly increase the company's large module manufacturing capacity, with an estimated annual output value of 2.1 billion yuan upon reaching full production [3]. - The nuclear power sector is projected to see substantial growth, with an average annual investment of approximately 160 billion yuan expected to be driven by the construction of new nuclear units [3]. 4. Earnings Forecast, Valuation, and Investment Recommendations - The company is forecasted to achieve net profits of 220 million yuan, 246 million yuan, and 356 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.49, 0.55, and 0.79 yuan per share [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 28, 25, and 17 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating potential for significant earnings growth from the nuclear business [4].