证券研究报告 策略周报：短期市场风格趋向均衡 证券分析师 | 魏伟 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060513060001 | | --- | --- | | 陈骁 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 | | 张亚婕 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060517110001 | | 蒋炯楠 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120002 | 2025年3月16日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 ※ 核心观点|短期市场风格趋向均衡 2 • 上周美股延续跌势，A股风格有所均衡。海外方面，特朗普政府政策摇摆不定（关税博弈、财政减支等），市场继续定价政策风险和衰退 预期，美元指数下跌0.2%至103.7，美股标普500和纳指连续第四周下跌，跌幅为2.3%和2.4%，COMEX黄金结算价涨3.0%。国内方面，消费 政策利好增加，市场热度延续，风格从科技成长向消费及顺周期板块平衡。沪深300指数上涨1.59%，科创50指数下跌1.76%；31个申万行 业中有28个行业上涨，美容护理、食品饮料、煤炭、纺服、社服、有色、非银行业领涨，涨幅在3%-9%，电子、机械、计算机行业下跌。 • 海外方面，美国通胀降温，特朗普政 ...

地产、建材 2025 年 03 月 17 日 行业点评 中央明确更好满足住房消费需求，推动家装等以旧换新 地产：强于大市（维持） 建材：强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业年度策略报告*建材*弱现实与强预 期，关注供给侧变化——建材行业 2025 年年度策略 报告*强于大市 20241215 证券分析师 郑南宏 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521120001 ZHENGNANHONG873@pingan.com.cn 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 BQV514 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn 事项： 中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》. 平安观点： 2/ 3 涂料、防水等建材产品陆续涨价，"价格战"缓和态势明显。受下游地产及装修需求疲弱拖累，2022 年以来防水、涂料、管 材等建材品类价格显著下行、企业盈利大幅承压。步入 2025 年，随着行业格局显著出清，"价格战"缓和态势明显。据中外 涂料网披露，3 月 13 日立邦发布年内的第三封涨价函，对"专业时时丽内墙乳胶漆"价格上调 1%；嘉宝莉亦对部分产品上 调 2-5%；另 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company has a clear rhythm in electric vehicle production and is accelerating iterations in intelligent driving technology. The L series is set for a significant upgrade in 2025, focusing on intelligent driving hardware enhancements [11][10]. - The company is expected to launch two new electric SUV models, i8 and i6, in the second half of 2025, with a more mature market entry compared to previous models [11]. - The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a low point for profitability due to a decrease in delivery volumes and increased discounts, but the second half of 2025 may exceed market expectations with the new model launches [11]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 442.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, while the net profit for the same period was 35.2 billion CNY, reflecting a decline of 31.4% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 144.46 billion CNY in 2024 to 271.34 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.6% [6][14]. - Net profit is expected to recover from 80.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 232 billion CNY by 2027, indicating a significant rebound in profitability [6][14]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 21.5% by 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve to 8.6% [14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 11.3% in 2024 to 18.9% in 2027, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [14]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 27.6 in 2024 to 9.6 by 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [14]. Delivery and Production Insights - The company reported a Q4 2024 delivery volume of 159,000 units, which was slightly below previous guidance but showed a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [9]. - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to see a significant increase in delivery volumes, with expectations of 88,000 to 93,000 units, driven by promotional strategies [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a sales figure of 105.4 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position in the 100 billion yuan sales club despite a year-on-year decline of 16.3% [4]. - The company's revenue for 2024 was 59.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.95 billion yuan, down 48.2% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company has a relatively strong backlog with pre-sold properties amounting to 87.36 billion yuan and contract liabilities of 81.27 billion yuan [4]. - The company focuses on first-tier and strong second-tier cities for project acquisitions, securing six quality projects in key cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou [4]. - The company’s debt management remains prudent, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 70.3% and a net debt ratio of 58.5% [4][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards, with EPS estimates revised to 0.36 yuan for 2025 and 0.43 yuan for 2026 [4][8]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 14.3%, down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 1.6% [3][8]. - The company’s long-term debt accounted for 84% of total interest-bearing debt, with a financing cost reduction of 26 basis points to 5.22% [4][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to decrease from 420.3 billion yuan in 2024 to 325.7 billion yuan by 2027 [7][9]. Key Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 4.8% in 2024 to 6.0% by 2027 [8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 16.1 times in 2025, decreasing to 12 times by 2027 [4][8]. - The company’s liquidity ratios indicate a current ratio of 2.0 in 2024, expected to decline to 1.6 by 2027 [8].

证券研究报告 社会服务行业周报 《提振消费专项行动方案》发布， 多地发布育儿补贴 社会服务行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 新消费团队 分析师：胡琼方 S1060524010002（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：huqiongfang722@pingan.com.cn 2025年03月17日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 宏观及行业动态：1）3月16日晚中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》。2）3月13日，呼 和浩特发布当地育儿补贴项目实施细则，其中明确：生育一孩一次性发放育儿补贴10000元，二孩发放50000元（1万 /年，5年），三孩及以上发放100000元（1万/年，10年），同时还包括了产妇"一杯奶"实施细则，政府为落户呼 和浩特市的产妇免费提供一年的每人每天"一杯奶"。3）自2021年"三孩政策"推出以来，各地方积极响应，出台 相应补贴政策，补贴多数更倾向于二孩、三孩，补贴年龄范围多在0-3岁，综合一次性补贴和月度补贴，平均每月补 贴金额约在几百至1000元。 公司相关动态：1）永辉超市：3月13日，永辉超市发布2025年全国第二批调改门店名单，共24家门店，分布于19个 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Viewpoints - Recent policies from the central government aim to boost consumption, which is expected to accelerate the recovery of the food and beverage sector [6] - The report highlights that the recovery in the food and beverage industry will be driven by improved demand in the downstream restaurant sector, benefiting companies like Anjuke Foods, Yanjing Beer, Chongqing Beer, and Haitian Flavoring [5][6] - The report suggests that the snack retail chain sector is entering a new phase of competition, with opportunities in full-category discount channels, recommending companies like Three Squirrels and Wancheng Group [5] - The dairy sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, with leading dairy companies entering a profit recovery phase, recommending Yili Group and suggesting attention to New Dairy [5] Summary by Sections - **Policy Impact**: The recent consumption promotion plan includes comprehensive measures aimed at enhancing domestic demand and improving consumer confidence, which is crucial for the food and beverage sector [6] - **Sector Opportunities**: The report identifies specific sectors within food and beverage that will benefit from policy support, including the restaurant supply chain, snack retail chains, and dairy products [5][6] - **Consumer Behavior**: The report anticipates a gradual recovery in consumer spending, with a forecast of a "front-low, back-high" recovery rhythm as consumer income and confidence improve [6]

证券研究报告 实施提振消费专项行动，消费医疗有望迎来复苏 生物医药行业强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所生物医药团队 分析师： 叶寅投资咨询资格编号:S1060514100001邮箱：YEYIN757@PINGAN.COM.CN 倪亦道投资咨询资格编号:S1060518070001邮箱：NIYIDAO242@PINGAN.COM.CN 韩盟盟投资咨询资格编号:S1060519060002邮箱：HANMENGMENG005@PINGAN.COM.CN 裴晓鹏投资咨询资格编号:S1060523090002邮箱：PEIXIAOPENG719@PINGAN.COM.CN 何敏秀投资咨询资格编号:S1060524030001邮箱：HEMINXIU894@PINGAN.COM.CN 王钰畅投资咨询资格编号:S1060524090001邮箱：WANGYUCHANG804@PINGAN.COM.CN 曹艳凯投资咨询资格编号:S1060524120001邮箱：CAOYANKAI947@PINGAN.COM.CN 研究助理：臧文清一般证券从业资格编号:S1060123050058邮箱：ZANGWENQING222@PINGAN.C ...

证券研究报告 社会服务行业周报 《提振消费专项行动方案》发布， 多地发布育儿补贴 宏观及行业动态：1）3月16日晚中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》。2）3月13日，呼 和浩特发布当地育儿补贴项目实施细则，其中明确：生育一孩一次性发放育儿补贴10000元，二孩发放50000元（1万 /年，5年），三孩及以上发放100000元（1万/年，10年），同时还包括了产妇"一杯奶"实施细则，政府为落户呼 和浩特市的产妇免费提供一年的每人每天"一杯奶"。3）自2021年"三孩政策"推出以来，各地方积极响应，出台 相应补贴政策，补贴多数更倾向于二孩、三孩，补贴年龄范围多在0-3岁，综合一次性补贴和月度补贴，平均每月补 贴金额约在几百至1000元。 公司相关动态：1）永辉超市：3月13日，永辉超市发布2025年全国第二批调改门店名单，共24家门店，分布于19个 城市。2）爱美客：子公司爱美客国际收购韩国REGEN Biotech,Inc.85%股权，对价1.9亿美元。3）九毛九：2024财 年预期收入为人民币60.73亿元，较2023财年有所增长；权益股东应占溢利不少于人民币5000万元，较2023财年 ...

其 他 报 告 2025年03月17日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3420 | 1.81 | 1.39 | | 深证成份指数 | 10978 | 2.26 | 1.24 | | 沪深300指数 | 4007 | 2.43 | 1.59 | | 创业板指数 | 2227 | 2.80 | 0.97 | | 上证国债指数 | 223 | -0.03 | -0.24 | | 上证基金指数 | 7187 | 2.10 | 0.76 | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 23960 | 2.12 | -1.12 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8878 | 2.75 | -0.40 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 21968 | 0.03 | -2.69 | | 道琼斯指数 | 41488 | 1.65 | -3.07 | ...

其 他 报 告 2025年03月17日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3420 | 1.81 | 1.39 | | 深证成份指数 | 10978 | 2.26 | 1.24 | | 沪深300指数 | 4007 | 2.43 | 1.59 | | 创业板指数 | 2227 | 2.80 | 0.97 | | 上证国债指数 | 223 | -0.03 | -0.24 | | 上证基金指数 | 7187 | 2.10 | 0.76 | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 23960 | 2.12 | -1.12 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8878 | 2.75 | -0.40 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 21968 | 0.03 | -2.69 | | 道琼斯指数 | 41488 | 1.65 | -3.07 | ...