Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [1][6]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer, established in 1903, is a leading domestic beer producer with a strong brand value of 264.675 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the top beer brand in China for 21 consecutive years [5][9]. - The company is focusing on high-end product development and has seen a stable beer demand, with a projected revenue growth driven by cost advantages from raw material price declines [5][21]. - The report forecasts steady revenue growth and profit release, with expected net profits of 4.8 billion, 5.1 billion, and 5.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 6%, and 6% [5][47]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Brand and Management - Qingdao Beer has a stable management structure and has undergone leadership changes that are expected to drive growth [9][13]. - The company has 57 wholly-owned and controlled breweries and exports to 120 countries, focusing on brand optimization and market expansion [5][9]. Section 2: Market Trends and Cost Advantages - The beer market in China is stabilizing, with production levels expected to remain between 35-36 million kiloliters from 2021 to 2024 [5][21]. - The average price of beer in the industry has increased by 13.3% from 2019 to 2024, indicating a trend towards premiumization [21][23]. - Raw material costs have generally declined since 2022, providing a cost advantage for beer companies [25][27]. Section 3: Product Structure and Efficiency - Qingdao Beer is implementing a "1+1" brand strategy, focusing on its main brand and a secondary brand to enhance market presence [29]. - The company has seen a significant increase in the sales of mid-to-high-end products, which accounted for 41.8% of total sales in 2024, up 6.6 percentage points from 2021 [30]. - Operational efficiency has improved, with a 76.2% capacity utilization rate in 2024, up 4.7 percentage points from 2017 [39][40]. Section 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects revenues of 33.6 billion, 34.7 billion, and 35.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 4%, 3%, and 3% [47]. - The expected gross margins are forecasted to be 41.2%, 41.5%, and 41.7% for the same years, reflecting improvements due to product mix optimization [47].

Key Points - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly precious and industrial metals, predicting continued price increases driven by various macroeconomic factors [3][9]. - Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to benefit from a weakening US dollar credit system and ongoing geopolitical tensions, leading to a sustained upward price trend [3][9][22]. - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are anticipated to see price increases due to limited supply and low inventory levels, supported by a favorable monetary environment [3][9][63]. - Energy metals are currently in a clearing phase, with demand from sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics expected to remain resilient, although overall supply may still exceed demand [3][9]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost advantages and expected volume growth, including Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and others [3][9]. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Review - The non-ferrous metals index showed strong performance in the first half of 2025, rising by 12.2%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which only increased by 0.7% [6]. - Precious metals led the sector, with the precious metals index rising by 33.9% during the same period, while industrial metals and energy metals saw increases of 11.2% and 8.0%, respectively [6]. Precious Metals - Gold prices accelerated in the first half of 2025, increasing by 28.2% compared to the end of 2024, driven by concerns over US debt and geopolitical tensions [17][22]. - Silver is expected to enter a phase of catch-up growth, with supply-demand dynamics indicating a persistent deficit [3][9][49]. Industrial Metals - The report highlights that copper and aluminum are poised for price increases due to constrained supply and improving demand elasticity, particularly in the context of domestic policy support [3][9][63]. - Global copper supply is projected to remain tight, with a forecasted decline in production from major mining companies [70]. Energy Metals - The energy metals sector is currently experiencing a clearing process, with demand from the electric vehicle and solar sectors expected to support prices despite an overall surplus in supply [3][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong cost advantages and expected volume growth, including Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and others [3][9].

Core Insights - The report highlights significant changes expected in the fund industry in the first half of 2025, focusing on the development of active funds, floating management fee reforms, and characteristics of high-quality funds [2][5][6] - Active funds in China have potential for growth in areas such as small-cap growth styles and QDII cross-market allocations, drawing lessons from the U.S. experience [2][6] - The floating management fee mechanism is being optimized, with new products incorporating holding periods and performance metrics to reshape interest alignment and reduce fees [2][7] - Funds that consistently outperform benchmarks tend to have stable long-term excess returns, with stock selection being a key driver of performance [2][8] Fund Industry Overview - The report notes a divergence in domestic equity assets, with small-cap stocks performing notably well and Hong Kong stocks seeing an increase [5] - Active equity funds have shown better performance, particularly in small-cap and growth style funds, while passive equity funds focused on Hong Kong themes have also yielded high returns [5] - The total issuance of funds has decreased compared to the same period last year, with a focus on passive equity and active bond funds [5] Active Fund Development - The report draws comparisons with the U.S. fund market, where active management dominates in multi-asset, global allocations, and complex markets, suggesting similar strategies could be beneficial in China [6] - Active funds in the U.S. have shown superior performance in small-cap growth and mid-cap growth strategies, indicating a potential pathway for Chinese active funds [6] Floating Management Fee Mechanism - The design and development trends of floating management fees are discussed, emphasizing the importance of a well-structured fee mechanism that aligns interests and simplifies calculations [7] - The report outlines the introduction of "safety nets" and "anti-dilution" mechanisms in the new floating fee products, aiming to enhance investor confidence [7] Performance of Funds - A selection of 27 funds that consistently outperform benchmarks was identified, with criteria including stable long-term excess returns and low deviation from performance benchmarks [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of stock selection and industry allocation in generating excess returns, with a focus on value investment strategies [8]

Group 1 - The fund industry in the first half of 2025 saw a decline in total issuance compared to the same period last year, with a focus on passive equity funds and active bond funds [2][42][47] - Active equity funds performed well, particularly small-cap and growth-style funds, with the small-cap style index rising by 19.60% [17][18] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued a plan to promote high-quality development in public funds, emphasizing the encouragement of passive equity products and reforms in fund company assessment and incentive schemes [2][53] Group 2 - The report highlights that active funds in China have room for growth, especially in small-cap growth styles, which are currently dominated by passive products [3] - The performance of various fund types showed that convertible bonds performed well, with a return of 4.47% in the first half of the year [22][25] - QDII funds also showed strong performance, with mixed QDII funds achieving a return of 15.09% [35][36] Group 3 - The report indicates that the market for floating management fee products is evolving, with new models designed to align the interests of fund managers and investors [4] - The report identifies 27 active equity funds that have consistently outperformed their benchmarks, with a focus on long-term excess returns and low deviation from performance benchmarks [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of performance benchmarks in the context of both domestic and international fund management practices [4][3] Group 4 - The report notes that the ETF market has seen significant net inflows, particularly in the CSI 300 and technology sector ETFs [39][41] - The performance of various thematic funds varied, with Hong Kong stock-themed funds leading in returns, while financial real estate funds showed the largest declines [21][20] - The report highlights that REITs have experienced price increases in the secondary market, with many products trading at a premium [38]

Core Viewpoints - The market environment is comparable to the second half of 2019, characterized by external uncertainties (tariffs, technology restrictions) and a recovery in domestic profitability, with emerging industries experiencing accelerated growth [3][6][8] - The report identifies four main lines for structural investment in new growth: technological innovation (domestic AI, semiconductors, innovative drugs), new consumption (beauty care, leisure food, outdoor sports), advanced manufacturing (automobiles, intelligent driving, military industry, machinery), and non-ferrous metals (gold, copper, rare earths) [3][8] Market Review - The new narrative logic of the Chinese market is becoming clearer, with significant volatility in global assets due to external factors, while Chinese assets benefit from technological innovation and fundamental certainty [6][8] - Small-cap stocks have significantly outperformed, with the CSI 1000 index rising over 10%, while new industry tracks have shown heightened activity, with certain sectors like stablecoins and innovative drugs seeing gains over 20% [6][8] Market Environment - External uncertainties continue to affect the market, but domestic fundamentals remain resilient, with corporate profitability showing signs of recovery [6][8] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a positive turnaround in entity profitability, particularly in the TMT sector, indicating a favorable outlook for the domestic economy [6][8] Structural Variables - Emerging industries are poised for a new breakthrough, with improvements in AI technology, equipment manufacturing, and new consumption trends [7][8] - Market financing resources are increasingly directed towards new productive forces, with significant growth in IPOs and mergers and acquisitions, particularly in sectors like electric equipment and biomedicine [7][8] Investment Outlook - The report suggests a focus on new growth opportunities, with a structural shift towards emerging industries expected to lead the market [3][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic positioning in sectors such as technology innovation, new consumption, advanced manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals for future investment [3][8]

Market Review - The new narrative logic of the Chinese market is becoming clearer, with significant asset volatility driven by Trump's fluctuating policies, tariff disputes, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts [4] - The A-share market has benefited from technological innovation and a solid fundamental backdrop, leading to an increase in allocation value [4][13] - The small-cap style has significantly outperformed, with the CSI 1000 index rising over 10% [4][19] Market Environment - External uncertainties continue to evolve, impacting global risk appetite, while domestic fundamentals remain resilient [4][30] - The weak dollar is expected to support the valuation of emerging markets, including Chinese assets, in the medium to long term [4][40] Structural Opportunities - New industries are experiencing significant positive changes, with emerging sectors like AI, advanced manufacturing, and new consumption trends gaining momentum [4][20] - The financing landscape is shifting towards new productive forces, with IPOs increasing by 26.5% year-on-year and M&A activity rising dramatically [4][24] Investment Outlook - The market environment is reminiscent of the second half of 2019, with external uncertainties and a recovery in domestic earnings [4][6] - Four main investment themes are identified: technological innovation (AI, semiconductors), new consumption (beauty care, leisure food), advanced manufacturing (automotive, military), and non-ferrous metals (gold, copper) [4][6][24]

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The report indicates that the economic resilience and low price levels in the first half of the year led to a scenario where interest rates initially rose and then fell, with the 10Y government bond rate fluctuating between 1.65% and 1.70% [8][9] - For the second half of the year, the GDP growth target of 5% is deemed achievable, with expectations of stable monetary policy and potential fiscal stimulus [9][10] - The report suggests a buying strategy during adjustments, with anticipated ranges for 10Y government bonds between 1.5%-1.8% and 30Y bonds between 1.7%-1.9% [10][11] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) in diabetes and weight loss, with sales of the drug Semaglutide projected to reach $29.3 billion in 2024, closely competing with another drug, K drug, at $29.5 billion [4][11] - The global market for GLP-1 RA is expected to reach $100 billion by 2030, driven by expanding indications and clinical data accumulation [4][11] - The report identifies potential growth areas in the GLP-1 RA market, including fat loss and muscle gain, oral formulations, and ultra-long-acting formulations, which are seen as key future opportunities [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Insights - The GLP-1 drug market is expected to see significant growth, with projections indicating that the market size for GLP-1 drugs in the U.S. for diabetes and obesity could reach approximately $100 billion by 2030 [4][5]. - The report identifies three key potential growth areas within the GLP-1 sector: fat loss and muscle gain, oral formulations, and ultra-long-acting formulations [5]. Summary by Sections Part 1: GLP-1 Drug Market Outlook - The GLP-1 receptor agonists (RA) have shown strong performance in glucose control and weight loss, with the drug semaglutide projected to achieve sales of $29.3 billion in 2024, closely competing with the leading drug, K drug, which is expected to generate $29.5 billion [5][4]. - The global market for GLP-1 RAs is anticipated to reach $100 billion by 2030, driven by expanding indications and accumulating clinical data [5]. Part 2: Trend One - Opportunities in Fat Loss and Muscle Gain - GLP-1 RAs have demonstrated effectiveness in fat loss, but the issue of muscle loss needs to be addressed. Pharmaceutical companies are increasingly focusing on the fat loss and muscle gain segment, with the ActRII pathway being a hot research direction [5][4]. - Future fat loss and muscle gain drugs are expected to complement GLP-1 drugs, enhancing their market position and lifecycle [5]. Part 3: Trend Two - Oral GLP-1 Drugs - Oral formulations of GLP-1 drugs offer significant convenience over injections, improving patient compliance. Novo Nordisk leads in this area with its oral semaglutide, while Eli Lilly's Orforglipron is progressing rapidly in clinical trials [5][4]. Part 4: Trend Three - Ultra-Long-Acting GLP-1 Drugs - Ultra-long-acting GLP-1 RAs are designed to extend the duration of action and reduce dosing frequency, significantly enhancing patient adherence. Some investigational products may allow for administration every four weeks [5][4]. Part 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the fat loss and muscle gain segment, oral formulations, and ultra-long-acting formulations. Specific companies to watch include: - Fat loss and muscle gain: Likai Pharmaceutical - Oral formulations: Heng Rui Medicine, East China Pharmaceutical, and Galenica - Ultra-long-acting formulations: Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, Ganli Pharmaceutical, and Tonghua Dongbao [5].

其 他 报 告 2025年06月24日 研究分析师 : 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060520070003 研究分析师 : 陈瑶 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060524120003 研究分析师 : 任书康 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060525050001 研究助理 : 高越 一般证券从业资格编号 : S1060124070014 研究助理 : 胡心怡 一般证券从业资格编号 : S1060124030069 核心观点 : 基金投顾组合总体情况：截至2025年5月末，上线天天基金APP的基 金投顾组合共441只，相比上月末增加11只组合；新增股债中枢型中稳健型组合5 只、进取型和货币型组合各2只、平衡型组合1只，赛道型中的科技组合1只。 投 顾组合业绩表现跟踪：股债中枢型基金，过去一年，各类中枢型组合的收益率中 位数均跑赢同类型FOF产品。月内，进取型、平衡型、稳健型组合的收益率中位 数均跑赢同类型FOF产品。与基准业绩比较，月内，进取型、平衡型、稳健型、 货币型组合的收益率中位数均跑赢基准。 持仓基金仓位跟踪：稳健型投顾组合减 持主动债券基金，增持固收+基金；平衡型投顾组合减持量化基金，增持主动权 益 ...

前瞻性产业研究 2025 年 6 月 23 日 养老金融周报（2025.06.16-2025.06.22） 第二，澳大利亚未来基金改革管理架构，并对赴美投资表示担忧。6 月17 日，澳大利亚未来基金表示，他们将把澳大利亚基础设施和房地产领域的 交易与资产管理业务收归内部运营。此举主要是在未来基金自身具有更高 的交易和管理水平后，进一步提升投资管理经济性的做法。此外，未来基 金认为，特朗普为全球局势增加了新的不稳定性与不确定性。美国正在成 为一个更高风险、更不确定的投资目的地。 美国社保托管委员会呼吁进行制度改革 证券分析师 | 陈骁 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060516070001 | | | chenxiao397@pingan.com.cn | 郝博韬 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521110001 haobotao973@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 本期重点： 本周，全球养老金领域共有三项重点事件值得关注。 第一，美国称其社保信托基金（OASI Trust）将于 2034 年耗尽。6 月18 日，美国 OASDI Trust 托管委员会发布 2025 ...