Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu, with a target price of 300 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company is navigating industry cyclicality with a focus on steady growth, emphasizing long-term high-quality development while addressing short-term market pressures [1]. - The management's pragmatic approach includes enhancing operational efficiency and expanding market share through innovative strategies [1]. - The company aims to strengthen its internal operations and optimize marketing management to foster long-term competitiveness [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 23,578 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.4%. This is expected to grow to 31,758 million CNY by 2027, with a gradual decline in growth rates [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5,518 million CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 20.2%, reaching 7,678 million CNY by 2027 [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 10.44 CNY in 2024, increasing to 14.53 CNY by 2027, with a corresponding decrease in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 15 to 11 over the same period [1]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on maintaining market share and enhancing product quality, with specific initiatives to improve sales channels and customer engagement [1]. - Gujing Gongjiu is adopting a nationwide expansion strategy while emphasizing localized market penetration in core regions [1]. - The management is committed to a pragmatic approach, adjusting growth targets to ensure sustainable operations amidst industry challenges [1].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, InnoScience (02577.HK), marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - InnoScience is a leading player in the GaN power semiconductor industry, focusing on third-generation semiconductor technology breakthroughs. The company is the first globally to achieve 8-inch GaN wafer mass production and holds a 42.4% market share in GaN discrete device shipments as of 2023 [6][14]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by its applications in consumer electronics, data centers, electric vehicles, and industrial power supplies, with projected revenues of 12.45 billion, 24.16 billion, and 39.13 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027 [9][27]. - The report highlights the company's strong competitive advantages, including its IDM model, which allows for better control over the design and manufacturing processes, leading to a wafer yield exceeding 95% and a 30% reduction in unit costs compared to 6-inch wafers [18][19]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for InnoScience is expected to grow from 828 million CNY in 2024 to 3.913 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62% [2]. - The net profit is projected to improve from a loss of 1.046 billion CNY in 2024 to a profit of 614 million CNY in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround in profitability [2][30]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately 339.11 billion HKD, with a circulating market value of 189.13 billion HKD [3]. Industry Overview - The global GaN semiconductor market is experiencing rapid growth, with a market size increase from 1.39 billion CNY in 2019 to 17.60 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting an annual growth rate of 88.5% [27]. - The demand for GaN power semiconductors is driven by the need for higher efficiency and smaller form factors in various applications, including consumer electronics, data centers, and automotive electronics [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the transition from traditional silicon-based semiconductors to GaN technology, which is expected to redefine industry standards and drive significant market expansion [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report conducts a detailed analysis of the financial investment, liability, and asset conditions of 42 listed banks. It reveals new trends in bank bond investment under low - interest and asset - shortage environments, and analyzes the reasons for changes in liability costs, net interest margins, and the scale and structure of liabilities and assets [2][8][9]. - By examining financial investment accounts, the report presents the characteristics of different types of banks in terms of investment scale, account structure, investment varieties, and term structure. It also analyzes the changes in liability - side costs and net interest margins, as well as the structural changes in absorption deposits, bonds payable, and inter - bank liabilities [9]. - Based on the first - quarter reports of 42 listed banks in 2025, the report analyzes the changes in major asset - side items such as loan issuance and inter - bank assets, and combines bond market performance to explain the reasons for these changes [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Listed Banks' Financial Investment: Enhanced Trading Attributes, Favor for OCI Accounts - **Financial Investment Scale**: In Q1 2025, the financial investment scale of listed banks maintained above - seasonal growth. The stock scale of financial asset investment of 42 listed banks reached 94.7 trillion yuan, accounting for about 30.17% of total assets. The investment growth rate increased from 10% in Q1 2024 to 14% in Q1 2025. Different types of banks showed different growth trends, with state - owned banks' growth slowing down and rural commercial banks' growth significantly rebounding [14][18][21]. - **Financial Investment Accounts**: The proportion of FVOCI in financial investment continued to rise. As of Q1 2025, the scales of FVTPL, FVOCI, and AC accounts were 12.8 trillion yuan, 27.0 trillion yuan, and 55.0 trillion yuan respectively. Different types of banks had different account structure changes. State - owned banks' trading characteristics were enhanced, joint - stock and city commercial banks' investment styles became more stable, and rural commercial banks' OCI accounts became the largest, with enhanced trading characteristics [25][29]. - **Financial Investment Varieties**: In the second half of 2024, listed banks' financial investments were still mainly government bonds, but more were placed in OCI accounts. Financial bonds replaced funds as the main growth point in trading accounts. Different types of banks had different investment variety focuses. State - owned banks mainly passively承接 government bonds, joint - stock banks saw significant growth in financial bonds, city commercial banks' financial bonds and policy - financial bonds increased significantly, and rural commercial banks mainly invested in trading varieties such as treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds, with a decline in fund investment scale [34][44][55]. - **Financial Investment Terms**: In the second half of 2024, the financial investment terms of listed banks were slightly extended. The overall term of financial investment increased from 4.27 years to 4.29 years. Different accounts showed different term changes, with the AC account's term compressed and the OCI account's term extended. Different types of banks also had different term structure characteristics [59][60]. 3.2. Liability Side: Obvious Effect of Inter - bank Deposit Rectification, Prominent Active Liability Characteristics of State - owned and Joint - Stock Banks - **Liability Cost**: In Q1 2025, the comprehensive liability cost of listed banks dropped to 1.65%, a significant decrease of 23bp from the end of 2024. The reasons included the accelerated manifestation of the "repricing" effect of deposit costs after the reduction of deposit listing rates and the significant cost - reduction effect of inter - bank deposits. The net interest margin continued to narrow, with state - owned and rural commercial banks under greater pressure [67][69]. - **Liability Scale**: As of Q1 2025, the total liability scale of listed banks was about 289.6 trillion yuan. The deposit expansion accelerated seasonally at the beginning of the year. The liability scale increased by 11.6 trillion yuan quarter - on - quarter, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 7.7%. Different liability items had different changes. Absorption deposits increased, bonds payable of state - owned banks increased significantly, and inter - bank liabilities decreased overall, except for rural commercial banks [70][74][85]. 3.3. Asset Side: Good Start in Credit, Reduction of Inter - bank Assets - In Q1 2025, the total asset scale of 42 listed banks was about 314 trillion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 11.9 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 7.5%. - **Loan Issuance and Advances**: The credit "good start" was promising. The ratio of loan assets to total assets of listed banks increased by 0.3pct to 56.34%. Different types of banks had different credit growth rates, with state - owned and joint - stock banks' loan growth slowing down, and city and rural commercial banks' loan growth accelerating [5]. - **Inter - bank Assets**: In Q1 2025, inter - bank assets decreased by 346 billion yuan quarter - on - quarter to 15.9 trillion yuan. State - owned and joint - stock banks were the main reduction items, mainly reducing repurchase funds lent out, while city and rural commercial banks maintained growth [5].

Industry Research - The report indicates a decrease in market trading activity, with average returns for various enhanced strategies showing mixed performance since the beginning of the year. For instance, the average weekly return for the 300 enhanced strategy is +1.1%, while the monthly return is +4.5% and the year-to-date return is +2.1% [1] - The report highlights that the average daily trading volume for the CSI 300 has decreased by 22.5% week-on-week and 44.4% month-on-month, while the year-to-date volume has increased by 28.9% [3] - The report identifies the top-performing sectors for the week, month, and year-to-date, with the pharmaceutical and biological sector leading with a weekly increase of +2.2% [4] Performance Metrics - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various indices, noting that the CSI 300 has underperformed relative to the CSI 500 with excess returns of -0.9% for the week and -1.7% for the month [2] - The average daily trading volume for the CSI 500 has shown a week-on-week decrease of 17% and a month-on-month decrease of 42.3%, while the year-to-date volume has increased by 52.8% [3] - The report also notes significant disparities in sector performance, with household goods showing a year-to-date increase of +21%, while non-bank financials have decreased by -11.5% [4]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250529 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债增量上涨，估值环比抬升 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.58%、上证综指环比上涨 0.70%、深证成 指环比上涨 1.24%、创业板指环比上涨 1.37%、上证 50 指数环比上涨 0.29%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 1.76%。 市场风格：小盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 0.62%、大盘价值环比下降 0.03%、中盘成长环比上涨 1.48%、中盘价值环比上涨 0.62%、小盘成长环比 上涨 1.53%、小盘价值环比上涨 0.84%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 571.54 亿元，环比 增长 12.24%；万得全 A 总成交额为 12134.10 亿元，环比增长 17.37%；沪深 两市主力净流入 74.33 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.45bp 至 1.69%。 转债价格：转债中枢提升，高价券占比提升。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 118.69 元，环比昨日上升 0.59%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 162.71 元，环比 上升 0.07%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 11 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Today, the convertible bond market declined with reduced trading volume, and the valuation compressed on a month - on - month basis. The small - cap value style was relatively dominant, and the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The valuation compressed, with the fitting conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value decreasing [2]. - More than half of the underlying stock industry indices declined today. In the A - share market, the top three declining industries were basic chemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and national defense and military industry; the top three rising industries were textile and apparel, environmental protection, and coal. In the convertible bond market, the top three declining industries were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, and building materials; the top three rising industries were beauty care, food and beverage, and media [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.07% month - on - month, while the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50 Index, and CSI 1000 Index declined [1]. - The small - cap value style was relatively dominant. The large - cap growth index declined 0.30%, the large - cap value index rose 0.11%, the mid - cap growth index declined 0.14%, the mid - cap value index declined 0.02%, the small - cap growth index declined 0.45%, and the small - cap value index rose 0.20% [1]. - The trading volume in the convertible bond market decreased, with the convertible bond market turnover at 50.921 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 8.83%. The total turnover of the Wind All - A Index was 1.033873 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.95%. The net out - flow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 18.539 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased 4.29bp to 1.68% [1]. 2. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume in the convertible bond market decreased, while the trading volume in the A - share market increased. The convertible bond market turnover was 50.921 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 8.83%, and the total turnover of the Wind All - A Index was 1.033873 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.95% [1][8]. - The net out - flow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 18.539 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased 4.29bp to 1.68% [1]. 3. Convertible Bond Valuation - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 118.04 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 162.36 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 109.76 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 119.74 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.14% [2]. - The valuation compressed. The fitting conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 21.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06pct; the overall weighted par value was 88.50 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20%. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 4.11%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32pct; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 87.66%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45pct; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 19.05%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.22pct [2]. 4. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three declining industries were basic chemicals (- 0.79%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 0.78%), and national defense and military industry (- 0.72%); the top three rising industries were textile and apparel (+ 1.17%), environmental protection (+ 0.89%), and coal (+ 0.74%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, the top three declining industries were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 0.96%), national defense and military industry (- 0.58%), and building materials (- 0.28%); the top three rising industries were beauty care (+ 3.23%), food and beverage (+ 0.85%), and media (+ 0.79%) [3]. - In terms of closing price, the large - cycle sector rose 0.01%, the manufacturing sector declined 0.04%, the technology sector rose 0.14%, the large - consumption sector rose 0.34%, and the large - finance sector rose 0.35% [3]. - In terms of conversion premium rate, the large - cycle sector decreased 0.024pct, the manufacturing sector increased 0.71pct, the technology sector increased 0.61pct, the large - consumption sector increased 0.18pct, and the large - finance sector increased 0.27pct [3]. - In terms of conversion value, the large - cycle sector rose 0.04%, the manufacturing sector declined 0.23%, the technology sector declined 0.11%, the large - consumption sector rose 1.33%, and the large - finance sector rose 0.54% [3]. - In terms of pure bond premium rate, the large - cycle sector decreased 0.014pct, the manufacturing sector decreased 0.065pct, the technology sector increased 0.15pct, the large - consumption sector increased 0.41pct, and the large - finance sector increased 0.38pct [4]. 5. Industry Rotation - Textile and apparel, environmental protection, and coal led the rise. The daily increase rates of textile and apparel, environmental protection, and coal in the underlying stock market were 1.17%, 0.89%, and 0.74% respectively; the daily increase rates in the convertible bond market were 0.16%, 0.07%, and 0.11% respectively [48].

4-8 M IT P 证券研究报告 【宏观专题】 黄金隐含"秩序重构"指数:捕捉全球秩序 重构的交易信号 8 核心观点 2023年12月,我们发布《金:百年,十年,明年》从定性层面十年维度战略 看多黄金,强调当前黄金所处的时代背景更类似于百年一遇的全球秩序重构 期。2024年5月,我们进一步发布《黄金的"非寻常"定价》从定量层面发现 过去 20年间世界黄金协会对黄金价格解释度极高的三大模型近两年对黄金价 格的解释力下降。2025年3月,我们发布了《黄金"狂想曲"——五种权端情 形下的金价推演》,分别假设五种极端情形对黄金的价格弹性进行了极致推演, 发现思维打开后,真正的"动荡"下黄金上涨空间大概率是超出想象的。当下 黄金价格的异常表现颠覆了传统认知,实际利率、通胀预期、美元指数等经典 因子无法充分解释黄金的上涨动力,我们认为黄金价格的异常涨幅隐含了投资 者对全球金融和政治秩序重构的强烈预期。央行购金热潮、地缘政治风险升温、 美元体系的潜在压力共同构成了这一秩序重构的复杂图景。为了度量全球秩序 重构交易的水平,我们提出黄金隐含"秩序重构"指数(Gold Implied Order Reconstruction ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 利润率提振盈利改善，企业温和去库 ——4 月工业企业利润点评 库存方面，名义、实际库存小幅回落 考虑价格因素，4 月 PPI 同比-2.7%、拖累较 3 月继续扩大，剔除 PPI 后的实际 库存增速 6.6%、略低于 3 月的 6.7%，实际库存增速小幅回落。外部关税影响 不确定之下，企业合理控制库存水平，生产与补库节奏相应放缓。与同期相比， 存货周转、应收账款回款依然偏慢，但较前月继续边际改善。 ❖ 总结：综合来看，4 月规模以上工业企业利润单月同比升至 2.9%，比 3 月继 续改善。4 月 PPI 同比降幅扩大至-2.7%、价格拖累依然突出，数量因素成为 单月利润继续改善的原因。一是"以旧换新"政策效果继续释放，二是出口端 保持韧性，转口贸易需求对制造业生产有一定支撑，三是单位营收费用率继续 压降，利润率延续改善。行业方面，中游份额抬升明显、下游份额小幅回落， 而上游盈利延续拖累。整体看，工业企业"量好于价"特征延续。 往后看，中美贸易谈判阶段性缓和，高频指向新一轮"抢出口"效应已启动， 前期受关税政策扰动短暂积压的订单需求，或在 5-6 月豁免期内集中释放、出 货 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 62.68, compared to the current price of HKD 39.5 [4][11]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the marketing and sales SaaS sector, with a strong focus on AI+SaaS integration, which is expected to drive rapid growth [8][11]. - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the enterprise SaaS market, driven by digital transformation trends, with the market size projected to reach HKD 745 billion by 2027 [8][11]. - The company has developed a comprehensive product line, including T Cloud and Zhenke, to address various customer needs in marketing and sales [22][50]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 1,559 million in 2024 to HKD 3,848 million in 2027, with a CAGR of 31.1% [4][11]. - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2024, with a net profit of HKD 27 million, and further increase to HKD 201 million by 2027 [4][11]. - The average PS ratio for comparable companies in the AI+SaaS segment is estimated at 8.55x, leading to a valuation of HKD 124.23 billion for this segment [3][11]. Business Model and Market Position - The company has established itself as the largest marketing and sales SaaS solution provider in China, with a CAGR of 39.1% in SaaS revenue from 2020 to 2024 [8][15]. - The AI+SaaS business is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with a projected CAGR of 41.21% from 2019 to 2024 [28][11]. - The company has a strong direct sales team, which accounts for nearly 90% of its AI+SaaS revenue, and is expanding its channel partner network [32][11]. Product Offerings - The company offers a modular SaaS product design, allowing for flexibility and customization, with T Cloud serving small to medium-sized enterprises and Zhenke targeting large enterprises [22][50]. - T Cloud includes 89 functional modules, enabling clients to customize their marketing strategies effectively [41][50]. - Zhenke provides a comprehensive sales management solution with 159 functional modules, focusing on enhancing sales efficiency for large enterprises [50][56]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of the enterprise SaaS market, with the Chinese SaaS market expected to exceed HKD 1,500 billion by 2027, driven by digitalization and AI integration [8][11]. - The global AI Agent market is projected to grow from USD 5.29 billion in 2024 to USD 216.8 billion by 2035, indicating a significant opportunity for the company to leverage AI capabilities [8][11].

Group 1: Gold Pricing Dynamics - Traditional pricing models for gold have lost effectiveness, with actual interest rates, the US dollar index, and inflation expectations failing to explain gold price movements from 2022 to 2025[2] - The GIORI index has reached its highest level since the 1970s, indicating market expectations of a global order reconstruction that surpass traditional cyclical views[5] - Gold prices have surged over 100% from $1,500 per ounce in early 2020 to over $3,000 by 2025, challenging market expectations and traditional financial models[12] Group 2: Drivers of Global Order Reconstruction - Central banks' gold purchases reached a 50-year high, with net purchases of 1,080 tons in 2022, 1,051 tons in 2023, and 1,045 tons in 2024, significantly exceeding the average of 500 tons per year in the 2010s[3] - Geopolitical risks have escalated, with conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict driving up gold prices as a safe-haven asset[3] - The pressure on the US dollar system is increasing, with the federal deficit projected to reach 6.6% of GDP in 2024, raising concerns about the sustainability of US debt and prompting a shift towards gold[3] Group 3: GIORI Index Insights - The GIORI index quantifies the unexplained volatility in gold prices, reflecting market expectations of non-traditional risks related to monetary diversification and geopolitical tensions[4] - Historical peaks of the GIORI index occurred during significant geopolitical events, such as the late 1970s and the 2010-2011 financial crisis, indicating a correlation with global market skepticism towards the dollar[5] - The GIORI index shows a strong correlation with the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) during specific periods, highlighting its relevance in assessing geopolitical risks[5]