Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market remains in a narrow - range oscillation. Factors such as "anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are structural reform measures that may have short - term impacts on the bond market sentiment, but the overall situation of the bond market has not changed. It is recommended to maintain a portfolio of 3 - year policy financial bonds + 10 - year + 4 - 5 - year credit bonds [2][3][57] - The "anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are beneficial for improving resource allocation efficiency, but their short - term impact on investment demand may be limited. The long - term impact on the economy needs to be further observed [3][38][54] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. The central bank maintains relative looseness within the established framework, and the unfreezing of collateral bonds has limited benefits - In June, the excess reserve ratio rose to 1.3%, lower than the expected 1.5%. The increase in the central bank's claims on other depository corporations was basically in line with high - frequency data, which might be the core factor for the lower - than - expected excess reserve ratio [6] - The central bank's short - term motivation to further relax the aggregate policy has weakened, but its concern about the bond investment risks of small and medium - sized banks has eased, and the constraint of long - term interest rates on liquidity loosening has decreased [13] - The actual capital situation was affected by the tax period. The central bank increased its net investment, and the capital tightened first and then loosened slightly. The short - term capital factor may not drive the interest rate to a new low [14][16] - The central bank's proposed cancellation of the freezing of collateral bonds for bond repurchases may indicate a consideration to restart bond purchases. The expectation of bond purchases may have a limited positive impact on the short - end, but it is unlikely to drive the interest rate to a new low in the short term [16][18] II. Domestic demand weakened significantly in June, but the improvement of financial data boosted macro - expectations - In June, the industrial added - value growth rate reached 6.8%, driven by the increase in export delivery value. However, the Q2 GDP growth rate dropped to 5.2% due to the negative growth of the construction industry [19] - From the demand side, except for the improvement of external demand driven by export rush, consumption and investment growth declined significantly in June. The pressure on external demand may further emerge after July, and consumption growth may face pressure without further policy support [25][29] - In June, fixed - asset investment growth rate turned negative, and real - estate sales declined. The sustainability of the rebound in real - estate new construction and completion needs to be observed [32] - In June, financial data was relatively strong. The increase in social financing scale and credit was mainly due to government bond financing and enterprise short - term loans, which may be affected by the strict payment terms of central and state - owned enterprises. This has boosted the expectation of economic improvement and affected the bond market sentiment [35][37][38] III. "Anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are part of the structural reform, and their short - term impact should not be overestimated - "Anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are structural reform measures to improve resource allocation efficiency. Strict payment terms are beneficial for accelerating the cash recovery of upstream and mid - stream enterprises, but may not significantly boost investment demand in the short term [3][38][47] - The "anti - involution" mainly restricts local government behavior. The current over - capacity is mainly concentrated in the mid - and downstream sectors, and it is more difficult to clear the over - capacity through administrative orders. Without demand - side support, its impact on inflation may take longer to appear [50][51][54] - The implementation of "anti - involution" needs to be further observed, as the central bank's policy on credit has changed between 2024 and 2025 [56] IV. The main contradiction in the bond market has not changed. Be patient and wait for the break of the oscillation pattern - The main contradiction in the bond market has not changed. The narrow interest - rate spread space makes it difficult for the slowdown of economic momentum to prompt the central bank to implement a new round of loosening policies. The long - term interest rate remains in a narrow - range oscillation [57] - If the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting in late July are limited, the A - share market may enter a correction, and the downward pressure on the fundamentals may further appear, which may drive a qualitative change in the bond market. It is recommended to switch from non - active bonds to active bonds and maintain the current bond portfolio [57][58]

把握业绩高增个股，长期关注"创新+复苏" [Table_Industry] 医药生物行业周报 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 7 月 21 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 医药生物 医药生物 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_A 唐爱金 uthor 医药首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮 箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 贺鑫 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120003 邮 箱：hexin@cindasc.com 曹佳琳 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080011 邮 箱：caojialin@cindasc.com 章钟涛 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524030003 邮 箱：zhangzhongtao@cindasc.com 赵丹 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120002 邮 箱：zhaodan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CIND ...

顺丰业务量增速持续领先，关注后续行业"反内卷"实质进展 [Table_Industry] 物流 2025 年 7 月 20 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 物流 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 秦梦鸽 交运行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110002 邮 箱：qinmengge@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 快递行业月度专题：顺丰业务量增速持续领 先，关注后续行业"反内卷"实质进展 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 20 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [事件：顺丰控股、圆通速递、韵达股份、申通快递 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in business volume and revenue, with June revenue reaching 26.254 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.43%, and express logistics business volume at 1.46 billion tickets, up 31.77% year-on-year [2][3] - The company has successfully transformed into a comprehensive logistics leader, with new business segments achieving market-leading positions and contributing to revenue and profit improvements [6][7] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q2, the company reported a business volume increase of 31.20% year-on-year and revenue growth of 12.41% [3] - The company’s business volume has been accelerating since 2025, significantly outpacing industry growth rates [4] Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue for the company in 2025 is projected to be 315.54 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.9% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 11.91 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.1% [8] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 12.8% in 2023 to 14.0% in 2025 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 8.9% in 2023 to 12.1% in 2025 [8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with net profits projected to reach 14.26 billion in 2026 and 16.85 billion in 2027, representing growth rates of 19.7% and 18.2% respectively [7][8] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 29.33 in 2023 to 20.28 in 2025, indicating potential value appreciation [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [3][11] - Short-term coal prices are expected to rise due to seasonal demand, with a potential extension of this demand until late August or early September [3][11] - The supply-demand imbalance is characterized by a temporary excess in supply due to recent policies and increased imports, rather than an absolute overcapacity [3][11] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to stabilize coal prices, which will positively impact downstream industries and help restore profitability in the coal sector [3][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of July 19, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 634 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][33] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1420 CNY/ton, an increase of 110 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][35] - International thermal coal prices have also seen fluctuations, with Newcastle coal at 66.5 USD/ton, up 1.0 USD/ton week-on-week [3][33] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 94.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points week-on-week [3][11] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 36,000 tons/day (+10.14%) and in coastal provinces by 27,100 tons/day (+12.62%) [3][11] - The chemical sector's coal consumption has decreased by 7,100 tons/day (-1.03%), while the steel industry's blast furnace operating rate has increased to 83.5% (+0.31 percentage points) [3][11] Long-term Outlook - The coal sector is expected to face supply constraints until the 14th Five-Year Plan, necessitating new capacity to meet long-term energy demands [12][13] - The coal industry is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividend yields, with a favorable long-term outlook [12][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others for investment opportunities [12][13]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the recent performance of previously oversupplied cyclical industries (such as photovoltaic, steel, and chemicals) may signal the entry of the bull market into its mid-term main upward wave [3][7][19] - In the two major bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021), cyclical stocks significantly underperformed in the early stages but began to show strong performance in the later stages [3][8][10] - The steel sector is highlighted as the most representative cyclical industry due to its limited sub-sectors and high correlation with domestic macroeconomic demand [10][19] Group 2 - The report suggests that the main reason for the cyclical stocks' performance shift is related to valuation rather than earnings changes, as the fundamentals of cyclical stocks varied significantly in the two bull markets [3][13][19] - In the early stages of a bull market, only a few sectors see valuation increases, while in the later stages, most sectors experience valuation uplift, making cyclical stocks' valuation advantages more pronounced [3][13][19] - The report outlines two potential scenarios for the future: one where economic recovery is weak, leading to temporary excess returns for cyclical stocks, and another where rapid supply-side improvements and stable growth policies lead to a longer bullish trend for cyclical stocks [19][23][28] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions, characterized by low valuations and active policy support, resemble the early stages of previous bull markets, suggesting a comprehensive bull market is likely [23][28] - The suggested tactical approach includes increasing allocations to sectors with elastic performance, such as non-bank financials, AI applications, and cyclical stocks, which are expected to show elastic performance in the next six months [28][29] - Specific industry allocation recommendations include increasing exposure to non-bank financials, media, and cyclical sectors like chemicals and steel, which may benefit from stable supply policies and potential demand stabilization [29][30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices experienced a slight decline due to concerns over increased gasoline inventories in the U.S. and OPEC+ production increases, with Brent and WTI prices at $69.28 and $66.05 per barrel respectively as of July 18, 2025 [2][7] - The oil and petrochemical sector showed a positive performance, with the sector rising by 1.13% compared to the 1.09% increase in the CSI 300 index [8][11] - The oil and gas extraction sector has seen a significant increase of 162.26% since 2022, while the refining and trading sector has risen by 28.99% [11] Oil Price Review - As of July 18, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $69.28 per barrel, down $1.08 (-1.53%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $66.05 per barrel, down $2.40 (-3.51%) [23] - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude increased by $0.55 (+0.85%) to $64.96 per barrel [23] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 384, a decrease of 1 from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling platforms remained at 134 [30] U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10,000 barrels from the previous week [43] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 422, down by 2 rigs [43] - The number of hydraulic fracturing fleets in the U.S. was 174, down by 6 fleets [43] U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing was 16.849 million barrels per day, down by 157,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.90%, down 0.8 percentage points [56] U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory was 825 million barrels, a decrease of 4.159 million barrels (-0.50%) from the previous week [68] - Strategic oil inventory was 403 million barrels, down by 300,000 barrels (-0.07%) [68] - Commercial crude oil inventory was 422 million barrels, down by 3.859 million barrels (-0.91%) [68] Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The electronic sub-industry index saw significant gains, with the component sector rising by 39.84% year-to-date [2][8] - The upcoming release of GPT-5 is expected to drive continued demand for computing power, with notable advancements in AI models [2] - NVIDIA's H20 GPU sales are anticipated to resume, indicating strong ongoing AI demand, as stated by TSMC [2] - The report suggests focusing on both overseas and domestic AI-related companies for potential investment opportunities [2] Summary by Sections Electronic Industry Performance - The performance of various electronic sectors year-to-date includes: Semiconductors (+3.02%), Other Electronics II (+9.45%), Components (+39.84%), Optical Electronics (-1.57%), Consumer Electronics (+1.86%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+11.61%) [2][8] - This week, the performance was: Semiconductors (+0.42%), Other Electronics II (+1.75%), Components (+9.36%), Optical Electronics (+0.44%), Consumer Electronics (+3.29%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+1.37%) [2][8] Key Stock Movements - Notable stock movements include: Apple (+0.01%), Tesla (+5.15%), NVIDIA (+4.54%), and Micron Technology (-8.14%) [2][9] AI Developments - OpenAI's CEO announced that the upcoming GPT-5 model is expected to achieve gold medal-level performance in the International Mathematical Olympiad [2] - The Kimi K2 model from the domestic sector has topped the global open-source model rankings, showcasing significant advancements in AI capabilities [2] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies for overseas AI investments include: Industrial Fulian, Huadian Co., Pengding Holdings, Shenghong Technology, and Shengyi Technology [2] - Recommended domestic AI companies include: Chipone Technology, Cambricon, Haiguang Information, SMIC, and Shenzhen South Circuit [2]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis, construction, or testing results [1][2][3]

Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank injected a total of 1.2011 trillion yuan through OMO and MLF this week, with a reverse repo of 1.4 trillion yuan on Tuesday[3] - DR001 rose to 1.53% on Tuesday due to tax payments and government bond payments, but stabilized around 1.45% after the tax period ended[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 0.97 trillion yuan to 7.24 trillion yuan compared to last week[3] Government Debt and Financing - The actual net payment of government bonds this week was 428.8 billion yuan, expected to decrease to 269.9 billion yuan next week[4] - Cumulative issuance of new general bonds in 2025 reached 494.1 billion yuan, with new special bonds at 2.3889 trillion yuan[4] - The forecast for July government bond issuance was slightly adjusted down to 1.22 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of approximately 460 billion yuan[4] Market Sentiment and Expectations - The central bank emphasized that the effects of implemented monetary policies will continue to manifest, indicating a reduced impetus for further loosening in the short term[3] - The central bank's recent decision to remove the freezing of collateral for bond repos may signal a potential restart of bond purchases, although the impact is expected to be limited[3] - Despite expectations of gradual liquidity easing post-tax period, DR001 may not return to the early July low of 1.3%[3]