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积极寻找结构性机会系列:人形机器人产业链相关转债梳理-20250604
Shanxi Securities· 2025-06-04 10:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is optimistic about the long - term prospects of the humanoid robot industry and suggests actively seeking structural opportunities in the convertible bond market [2][29] Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market is expected to remain at a high level. Due to factors such as reduced new bond issuance and increased forced redemptions since 2023, the supply - demand imbalance in the convertible bond market is difficult to change in the short term. With the continuous activity of the stock market, investors should increase their risk appetite and actively seek structural opportunities [1][24] - The humanoid robot industry has broad prospects. Although the concept has been popular for some time, its industrialization is just beginning. In 2025, it is regarded as the mass - production year of humanoid robots, with high growth potential and policy support [3][29] Summary by Directory I. Humanoid Robot - Related Convertible Bond List - There are about 480 convertible bonds in the market, and 28 of them are related to humanoid robots. The report provides detailed information on these bonds, including code, name, market price, conversion premium rate, bond balance, remaining term, rating, and remarks [11][12] II. Expected High - Level Operation of the Convertible Bond Market 1. Convertible Bond Market Price and YTM Have Returned to the Upper Limit of the Reasonable Range - The median market price and YTM of the convertible bond market have returned to the upper limit of the reasonable range, indicating that the market has recovered from the trough [13] 2. Supply - Demand Relationship and Stock Market Conditions Drive the Convertible Bond Market to Remain High - Since 2023, the number of new convertible bonds issued has decreased significantly, and the number of forced - redemption bonds has increased. The total market value of the convertible bond market has dropped from nearly 1.1 trillion yuan in early September 2023 to about 800 billion yuan. Benefiting from the stock market recovery, the median conversion premium rate of the convertible bond market has fallen to the lower limit of the reasonable range, showing a stock - like characteristic. The combination of supply - demand imbalance and active stock market is expected to keep the convertible bond market at a high level [15][24][27] III. Actively Seek Structural Opportunities 1. Optimistic about the Long - Term Prospects of Humanoid Robots - High - end institutions predict that the global humanoid robot market will have significant growth in the future. By 2035, the global humanoid robot shipments will reach 1.4 million units, with a market size of about $38 billion. In China, the market size is expected to grow from about 2.76 billion yuan in 2024 to 75 billion yuan in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 93.57% [29] 2. Analysis of the Humanoid Robot Industry Chain: Mass - Production Year, Just Beginning - The breakthrough of humanoid robots is mainly concentrated in three aspects: software system integration optimization, core hardware technology breakthrough and low - cost mass production, and top - level policy support and resource integration by large enterprises. The single - unit value of humanoid robots is mainly concentrated in three core fields: precision transmission, drive, and perception systems [32][35] 3. List of Key Convertible Bonds in the Humanoid Robot Industry - After comprehensive consideration of bond terms, underlying stock fundamentals, valuation, and short - term price fluctuations, ten convertible bonds are recommended for key attention, including Hao 24 Convertible Bond, Guansheng Convertible Bond, etc. [36] 3.1 Hao 24 Convertible Bond - The company is a leader in the synchronizer industry and has a growing differential business. It is also actively involved in the humanoid robot core components, with its subsidiary focusing on high - precision planetary reducers and joint drive assemblies. The bond is suitable for the high - price and low - premium strategy [40][41] 3.2 Guansheng Convertible Bond - The company's automotive business is stable, and its stock valuation is relatively low. It is exploring the solid - state battery business and has started preliminary business negotiations with humanoid robot manufacturers. The bond has a small balance, a low conversion premium rate, and is suitable for the high - price and low - premium strategy [44][45] 3.3 Huitong Convertible Bond - The company has good performance and low PE valuation. It is one of the few domestic enterprises capable of mass - producing PEEK materials, which are used in the humanoid robot industry. The bond has a small balance, a low conversion premium rate, and is suitable for the high - price and low - premium strategy [47][48] 3.4 Lingyi Convertible Bond - The company is a global leader in consumer electronics precision manufacturing and has long - term experience in robot R & D and production. It is a core hardware supplier for Figure AI. The bond is a new high - rated bond with a small free - floating market value and is expected to benefit from the development of the humanoid robot industry [50][51] 3.5 Sheng 24 Convertible Bond - The company's business has returned to normal after the termination of the controlling - shareholder change plan. Although its performance was poor in 2024, it is expected to improve in the long term. It has strategically布局 the humanoid robot business. The bond has a long remaining term, a relatively low price, and a low conversion premium rate, making it a good balanced convertible bond [53][54] 3.6 Rong 23 Convertible Bond - The company is a component stock of the Yushu Robot Index through indirect investment. Its main business is relatively traditional but has stable performance and low valuation. The bond has a small balance and a low conversion premium rate, making it a good balanced convertible bond [56][57] 3.7 Keli Convertible Bond - The company is a leader in the power lithium - battery structural parts industry. It has chosen the robot business as its second development curve. The bond has a relatively low price, an acceptable conversion premium rate, and is a good balanced convertible bond [59] 3.8 Aidi Convertible Bond - The company is a leader in the hydraulic breaker industry and has forward - lookingly布局 the industrial robot business. It is also exploring the humanoid robot reducer business. The bond has a relatively low price, a small balance, and an acceptable conversion premium rate, making it a good balanced convertible bond [60][61] 3.9 Tai 21 Convertible Bond - The company has a complete industrial chain and high - tech barriers. Its performance has been growing rapidly. The bond has a relatively low price, a small balance, and may be subject to a downward revision in the future. The potential application of PA66 in humanoid robots may boost the stock valuation [63][64] 3.10 Kewuo Convertible Bond - The company is a leader in the service robot industry and benefits from consumer subsidies. It is also considered a humanoid robot concept stock due to its potential technological synergy. The bond has a relatively low price, a high conversion premium rate, and a short remaining term [66][67]
山西证券研究早观点-20250604
Shanxi Securities· 2025-06-04 07:08
研究早观点 2025 年 6 月 4 日 星期三 市场走势 李召麒 执业登记编码:S0760521050001 电话:010-83496307 邮箱:lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 资料来源:最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,361.98 | 0.43 | | 深证成指 | | 10,057.17 | 0.16 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,852.01 | 0.31 | | 中小板指 | | 6,316.53 | 0.61 | | 创业板指 | | 2,002.70 | 0.48 | | 科创 | 50 | 981.71 | 0.48 | | 资料来源:最闻 | | | | 分析师: 【行业评论】电力设备及新能源:行业周报(20250526-20250601)- 上海成立具身智能数据联盟,硅料价格下行 【公司评论】隆基绿能(601012.SH):隆基绿能公司点评-产业链价格下 行拖累业绩,2025 ...
海外市场周观察
Shanxi Securities· 2025-06-04 05:44
宏观策略 海外市场周观察(20250526~20250601) 2025 年 6 月 4 日 宏观策略/定期报告 投资要点: 美国:关税政策不确定性再升 (1)央行动态 山证宏观策略团队 分析师: 本周虽然初请失业金人数再度冲高,但并未突破 40 万人的警戒水平,4 月美国个人消费支出等硬数据显示美国经济依旧在温和放缓,因此,市场对 于美联储的政策预期变化不大,截止 6 月 3 日,根据 CME FedWatch 工具, 市场预计美联储 9 月将降息 25bp,12 月再降 25bp,较上周基本保持不变。 范鑫 (2)重点数据 执业登记编码:S0760523070002 邮箱:fanxin@sxzq.com 5 月 24 日当周,初请失业金人数冲高至 24 万人,两个月移动平均也显 示出上升趋势,暗示美国就业市场出现降温迹象。25Q1 实际 GDP 环比折年 率-0.2%(上修 0.1 个百分点),其中,净出口拖累 4.9 个百分点,贸易政策 带来的扭曲十分明显,消费者支出从 1.8%下修至 1.2%。亚特兰大联储 5 月 30 日将 25Q2 的 GDP 预测上修至 3.8%(5 月 23 日预测为 2.4 ...
隆基绿能:产业链价格下行拖累业绩,2025年BC产品出货占比有望超25%-20250603
Shanxi Securities· 2025-06-03 08:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) [4] Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by declining prices across the industry chain, with a significant drop in revenue and net profit in 2024. However, there is an expectation that the company's BC product shipment ratio will exceed 25% by 2025 [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 82.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -8.62 billion yuan, down 180.2% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 13.65 billion yuan, down 22.8% year-on-year and 43.1% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -1.44 billion yuan, an increase of 38.9% year-on-year and 32.0% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The company's silicon wafer revenue in 2024 was 8.21 billion yuan, down 66.5% year-on-year, with a shipment of 108.46 GW. The revenue from modules and batteries was 66.33 billion yuan, down 33.1% year-on-year, with a battery module shipment of 82.32 GW [2] - The gross margins for silicon wafers and battery modules in 2024 were -14.3% and 6.3%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 30.2 percentage points and 12.1 percentage points [2] Product and Technology Development - Longi Green Energy is a leading company in BC technology, with its HPBC 1.0 production line being upgraded to N-type HPBC 2.0 technology, achieving a battery yield of approximately 97%. The company expects its BC component shipments to reach 17.33 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 191%, and 4.32 GW in Q1 2025 [3] - By the end of 2025, the company's BC production capacity is projected to increase to 50 GW, with an expected shipment ratio of BC products exceeding 25% for the year [3]
隆基绿能(601012):产业链价格下行拖累业绩,2025年BC产品出货占比有望超25%
Shanxi Securities· 2025-06-03 08:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [3][6] Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by declining prices across the industry chain, with a significant drop in revenue and profit margins [4][5] - The company is expected to increase its BC product shipment ratio to over 25% by the end of 2025, driven by advancements in technology and production capacity [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 82.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -8.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 180.2% [3][4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.65 billion yuan, down 22.8% year-on-year and 43.1% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -1.44 billion yuan, an increase of 38.9% year-on-year and 32.0% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The company's silicon wafer revenue in 2024 was 8.21 billion yuan, down 66.5% year-on-year, while the revenue from modules and batteries was 66.33 billion yuan, down 33.1% year-on-year [4] Production and Capacity Insights - The company shipped 17.33 GW of BC modules in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 191%, and 4.32 GW in Q1 2025 [5] - By the end of 2025, the company's BC production capacity is expected to reach 50 GW, with the second-generation BC capacity projected to increase to 35 GW by mid-2025 [5] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are -0.28 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.60 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of -51.0, 45.3, and 23.9 [6][8]
上海成立具身智能数据联盟,硅料价格下行
Shanxi Securities· 2025-06-03 06:24
地瓜机器人完成 1 亿美元 A 轮融资: 2025 年 5 月 28 日,地平线机 器人-W(9660.HK)旗下地瓜机器人宣布完成 1 亿美元 A 轮融资。本轮融 资获得海内外众多投资机构青睐,由高瓴创投、五源资本、线性资本、和暄 资本、九合创投、Vertex Growth 等投资机构共同参投,为地瓜机器人加速构 建具身智能生态版图注入强劲动力。为加速具身智能机器人落地进程,地瓜 机器人将在 6 月正式发售面向具身智能机器人的 RDK S100 机器人开发套 件。该平台具备百 TOPS 级算力,拥有强大的异构架构设计,是行业首款单 SoC 算控一体计算平台,可实现机器人感知与运控协同计算。 电力设备及新能源 行业周报(202526-20250601) 同步大市-A(维持) 上海成立具身智能数据联盟,硅料价格下行 2025 年 6 月 3 日 行业研究/行业周报 电力设备及新能源行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 资料来源:最闻 | 首选股票 | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 600732.SH | 爱旭股份 | 买入-B | | 601012.SH | 隆基绿能 | 买入-B | | ...
电力设备及新能源行业周报:上海成立具身智能数据联盟,硅料价格下行
Shanxi Securities· 2025-06-03 06:23
电力设备及新能源 行业周报(202526-20250601) 同步大市-A(维持) 上海成立具身智能数据联盟,硅料价格下行 2025 年 6 月 3 日 行业研究/行业周报 电力设备及新能源行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 资料来源:最闻 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 行业研究/行业周报 | 首选股票 | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 600732.SH | 爱旭股份 | 买入-B | | 601012.SH | 隆基绿能 | 买入-B | | 601865.SH | 福莱特 | 买入-A | | 002056.SZ | 横店东磁 | 买入-A | | 300274.SZ | 阳光电源 | 买入-A | | 688472.SH | 阿特斯 | 买入-A | | 605117.SH | 德业股份 | 买入-A | 【山证太阳能】智元发布 AI 智能助行外 骨 骼机 器人 , 光伏 产 业链 价格 下 行 2025.5.7 肖索 执业登记编码:S0760522030006 邮箱:xiaosuo@sxzq.com 贾惠淋 执业登记编码:S0760523070001 邮箱:jiah ...
山西证券研究早观点-20250603
Shanxi Securities· 2025-06-03 01:30
国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,347.49 | -0.47 | 批,业绩有望迎来反转 | | 深证成指 | | 10,040.63 | -0.85 | | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,840.23 | -0.48 | | | 中小板指 | | 6,277.94 | -0.96 | | | 创业板指 | | 1,993.19 | -0.96 | | | 科创 | 50 | 977.03 | -0.94 | | | 资料来源:最闻 | | | | | 分析师: 研究早观点 2025 年 6 月 3 日 星期二 市场走势 资料来源:最闻 李召麒 执业登记编码:S0760521050001 电话:010-83496307 邮箱:lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【行业评论】通信:山西证券通信行业周跟踪:英伟达 computex 强调 边缘计算,超节点是国产算力重要元素 【公司评论】江铃汽车(000550.SZ):江铃汽车 24 年报&25Q1 季报点评-持 续发力海外开拓市场空 ...
江铃汽车(000550):持续发力海外开拓市场空间,深入推进新能源与智能化转型
Shanxi Securities· 2025-05-30 10:58
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add-A" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [2][8]. Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth in 2024, achieving an operating income of 38.374 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%. However, the net profit for the same year was 1.537 billion yuan, reflecting a modest growth of 4.2% [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence and advancing its transition to new energy and intelligent vehicles, which are expected to drive future growth [2][4][8]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's total vehicle revenue reached 34.702 billion yuan, up 14.32% year-on-year, with steady growth in SUV, pickup, and light passenger vehicle sales [3]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 14.13%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 3.14%, down 0.07 percentage points [3]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported an operating income of 7.967 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 306 million yuan, down 36.56% [2][3]. Market Expansion - The company has made significant strides in international markets, with exports reaching 116,600 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%. It has established over 100 overseas dealers and showrooms, exporting to more than 100 countries [4][8]. - The collaboration with Ford has deepened, with a framework agreement for vehicle exports signed, enhancing the company's global footprint [4]. New Energy Strategy - The company is actively developing its new energy vehicle lineup, achieving sales of 10,900 units and generating revenue of 1.118 billion yuan from these products in 2024 [4][8]. - The introduction of new electric models is expected to strengthen the company's position in the new energy vehicle market [4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 42.439 billion yuan, 48.208 billion yuan, and 55.728 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.6 billion yuan, 1.849 billion yuan, and 2.187 billion yuan [8][10]. - The report anticipates continued growth in earnings per share (EPS), with estimates of 1.85 yuan, 2.14 yuan, and 2.53 yuan for the same period [8][10].
中集车辆(301039):业绩短期承压,持续推进提质增效与全球市场开拓
Shanxi Securities· 2025-05-30 09:06
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add-A" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [7]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit in 2024, with operating income of 20.998 billion yuan, down 16.30% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.085 billion yuan, down 55.80% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 also showed a decline in revenue and profit [3][4]. - Despite challenges in the North American market, the domestic market showed resilience with a 12% increase in semi-trailer sales and a 16% increase in revenue, leading to an increase in market share [4]. - The company is focusing on high-end manufacturing transformation and digitalization to enhance long-term competitiveness, alongside significant investments in the new energy vehicle market [5]. Company Performance - The company's stock closed at 8.37 yuan on May 30, 2025, with a market capitalization of 156.86 billion yuan. The highest and lowest prices in the year were 13.15 yuan and 7.86 yuan, respectively [2]. - The basic and diluted earnings per share for the year ending March 31, 2025, were both 0.10 yuan, with a net asset return rate of 1.18% [2]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 21.556 billion yuan, 22.811 billion yuan, and 24.892 billion yuan, respectively. Net profits are expected to be 1.151 billion yuan, 1.294 billion yuan, and 1.507 billion yuan for the same period [7][9]. - The report anticipates an increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 0.61 yuan in 2025 to 0.80 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 13 to 10 [7][9].