证券研究报告|策略专题报告 产业经济 2025年3月13日 全球制造业有望复苏，全球化重塑或助推商品走强 证券分析师： 李 浩 执业证书编号：S0210524050003 李刘魁 执业证书编号：S0210524050006 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 核心观点 2 华福证券 华福证券 • 全球制造业接力复苏，商品通胀或上行。欧洲短期复苏加速，美国受高利率压制但中期有望释放动能，长期中国重塑全 球化格局，效率优先带动制造业扩张和商品需求的上行。 • 欧洲复苏叠加债务扩张动能或将从短期推动制造业景气改善。短期欧洲复苏斜率较高，叠加欧洲突破财政纪律，加码基 建和能源安全，或将直接拉动制造业需求。 • 此前美国高利率抑制全球制造业资本开支。美债利率高企的根源是服务业通胀粘性延长紧缩周期，导致制造业融资成本 高企， 资本开支受抑制，商品通胀疲弱。 • 中期维度，美债利率下行释放制造业资本开支空间。主动降息和经济衰退，无论哪种路径都将带动利率下行，制造业资 本开支回升将推升商品通胀。 • 长期趋势是中国破局逆全球化，重构效率优先模式。美国逆全球化加剧，中国重塑全球化格局，打破美国的"垄断分工 "模式 ...

证券研究报告|策略专题报告 产业经济 2025年3月13日 全球制造业有望复苏，全球化重塑或助推商品走强 证券分析师： 李 浩 执业证书编号：S0210524050003 李刘魁 执业证书编号：S0210524050006 华福证券 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 核心观点 2 华福证券 华福证券 华福证券 • 全球制造业接力复苏，商品通胀或上行。欧洲短期复苏加速，美国受高利率压制但中期有望释放动能，长期中国重塑全 球化格局，效率优先带动制造业扩张和商品需求的上行。 • 欧洲复苏叠加债务扩张动能或将从短期推动制造业景气改善。短期欧洲复苏斜率较高，叠加欧洲突破财政纪律，加码基 建和能源安全，或将直接拉动制造业需求。 • 此前美国高利率抑制全球制造业资本开支。美债利率高企的根源是服务业通胀粘性延长紧缩周期，导致制造业融资成本 高企， 资本开支受抑制，商品通胀疲弱。 • 中期维度，美债利率下行释放制造业资本开支空间。主动降息和经济衰退，无论哪种路径都将带动利率下行，制造业资 本开支回升将推升商品通胀。 • 长期趋势是中国破局逆全球化，重构效率优先模式。美国逆全球化加剧，中国重塑全球化格局，打破美国的"垄断分工 "模式 ...

公 华福证券 生物类似药出海天地广阔，自研+BD 模式进一步打开成长天花板 随着全球多个重磅生物药专利陆续到期，全球生物类似药市场规 模有望快速增长。自研方面，截至 23 年公司多肽类制剂有 4 个产品 美国审批中、1 个产品注册批生产完成、6 个产品前期研发中。BD 方 面，公司 2024 年购买阿达木单抗类似药取得美国生物类似药市场入场 券， 近年来公司积极寻求外部合作，先后与海南双成、通化东宝达成 战略合作，取得白蛋白紫杉醇、甘精、门冬、赖脯三种胰岛素在美国 市场的独家商业化权益，未来随着生物类似药在美国市场获批，有望 助力海外制剂业务快速放量。 华福证券 投资要点： 肝素原料药市场边际改善，公司 API 业务有望稳健增长 公 司 首 次 覆 盖 2023 受到下游企业去库存影响，肝素原料药需求端减弱，价格进 入下跌周期，公司于 23 年对 API 存货计提 12.4 亿元跌价准备，当前 随着供给端格局稳定+需求端去库存周期或接近尾声，肝素价格有望恢 复。公司作为肝素原料药龙头，相关业务收入体量及毛利率未来有望 回升。2024 年公司拟转回存货跌价准备 1.6-2.4 亿元，我们认为若未来 肝素行业景气 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The heparin raw material market is showing marginal improvement, and the company's API business is expected to grow steadily [3][29]. - The company is focusing on sterile injection formulations, with rapid growth in overseas formulation business [4][41]. - The global biosimilar drug market is anticipated to grow significantly, with the company leveraging both self-research and business development (BD) models to expand its growth potential [5][67]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leading supplier of heparin raw materials and has been transitioning towards high-end injection formulations and biosimilars, aiming to reduce its reliance on traditional raw material labels [13][16]. 2. Heparin Raw Material Market - The heparin raw material market is expected to recover as supply-side stability and the end of inventory destocking on the demand side are anticipated [3][31]. - The company has established stable supply relationships with major global heparin formulation manufacturers, providing a solid cash flow for its injection business [36][37]. 3. Focus on Sterile Injection Formulations - The company's injection business has shown robust growth, with a revenue increase of 12.8% in 2023 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47.4% from 2018 to 2023 [41][46]. - The company has a diverse product matrix in sterile injections, including low molecular weight heparin and anti-tumor agents, with a significant portion of revenue coming from overseas markets [47][55]. 4. Biosimilar Drug Development - The global biosimilar market is projected to grow rapidly, with the company actively pursuing opportunities in this space, including acquiring rights to a biosimilar of adalimumab [5][72]. - The company has multiple biosimilar products in various stages of development, enhancing its growth prospects in international markets [67][72]. 5. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 0.9 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.5 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with significant growth rates projected [5][6].

功能智能风潮引领看见革命 证券分析师： 李宏鹏 执业证书编号：S0210524050017 汪浚哲 执业证书编号：S0210524050024 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点： 证券研究报告|行业深度 轻工制造 行业评级强于大市（维持评级） 2025年3月12日 镜片行业深度： 华福证券 ➢ 镜片行业：规模稳增，功能性需求逐步释放。据欧睿，2024年全球眼镜市场规模约1040.82亿美元，同比+5.1%，预计2029年将达1313.4亿美元， 24-29年CAGR达4.8%。2023年全球CR10眼镜公司份额（零售额计）为44.8%，其中依视路以27.8%的份额绝对领先，其次为蔡司4.6%、豪雅4.5%。 我国镜片行业：1）需求端：2024年我国眼镜市场规模约737亿元，同比+7.6%，预计2029年将达970亿元，24-29年CAGR达5.7%。随消费者对视 力保护的重视，近视防控、渐进、变色、防蓝光等功能性镜片需求释放。2）供给端：我国是眼镜生产和出口大国，据Trade Map，2023年我国眼镜 出口占全球58.6%，出口均价相对较低。内销方面，海外龙头主导高端市场，内资品牌 ...

电子 2025 年 03 月 11 日 行 业 研 究 电子 北方华创&芯源微强强联合，半导体设备迈入新阶段 投资要点： 事件： 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 半导体设备领军者北方华创拟"入主"芯源微。3 月 10 日晚间， 芯源微发布公告称，北方华创拟取得公司控制权，持股 5%以上的股东 沈阳先进制造技术产业有限公司拟将其持有的 1906.50 万股股份以 88.48 元/股的价格转让给北方华创，占总股本的 9.49%。此外，同日公 司持股 5%以上的股东中科天盛拟转让其持有的全部股份 1689.975 万 股，占公司总股本 8.41%。北方华创将继续增持公司股份并取得对公 司的控制权。 纵观海外半导体设备龙头崛起的历史，通过收购与投资产业链核心优 质公司以占据技术制高点是筑造生态与技术护城河的重要手段。 半导体工艺复杂，设备种类繁多切技术门槛极高 ，因此并购是海 外巨头追求协同效应、扩展新领域最常用的手段。根据半导体产业纵 横转引 CINNO IC Research 数据，2024 年全球前 5 名的半导体设备厂 商应用材料、ASML、TEL、Lam 和 KLA 的合计收入约占全球半导体 设备市场的 85%，而 ...

行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 03 月 08 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：万华万吨级生物基 1,3-丁二醇装置投 产，工信部印发民爆行业转型升级实施意见 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 1.56%，创业板指数上涨 1.61%， 沪深 300 上涨 1.39%，中信基础化工指数上涨 1.65%，申万化工指数上涨 2.27%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为钛 白粉(6.05%)、涂料油墨颜料(4.17%)、其他化学制品Ⅲ(4.03%)、电子化学品(3%)、 绵纶(2.96%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为轮胎(-1.8%)、纯碱(-0.72%)、 粘胶(0.13%)、橡胶制品(0.5%)、氯碱(0.74%)。 本周行业主要动态： 万华万吨级生物基 1,3-丁二醇装置投产。近日，万华化学采用自主研发的 专利技术，以非主粮生物质为原料，建成并投产全球首套万吨级生物基 1,3-丁 二醇装置。万华化学 1,3-丁二醇装置采用其自主研发的专利技术，通过创新的 催化剂及生产工艺，大幅提升其原料利用率，避免资源浪费，减少"三废"产 ...

Core Insights - Companies are utilizing "high export reporting/low import reporting" to retain USD deposits, combined with expectations of RMB depreciation, creating a dual drive of interest rate spread and exchange rate gains [3] - The inversion of the China-US interest rate spread intensifies capital outflow pressure, leading to a negative feedback loop between short-term capital flows and currency depreciation [3] - The counter-cyclical factor aims to stabilize unilateral depreciation or appreciation expectations, with targeted and flexible implementation of tools [3] - The counter-cyclical factor compresses traditional interest arbitrage space, promoting capital inflow into China's risk-free assets [3] - The convergence of the counter-cyclical factor reflects a weakening of depreciation expectations, slowing the momentum of foreign capital inflow into short-term bonds, with marginal liquidity easing [3] - Under the capital control framework, companies engage in interest arbitrage through trade channels, essentially constituting "institutional arbitrage," necessitating ongoing regulatory balance between openness and risk [3] - The cognitive-behavioral-outcome cycle includes cognitive biases, with cognitive correction potentially initiating a positive cycle [3] - Expectations of RMB appreciation may trigger foreign capital to increase allocation to Chinese equity assets, forming a positive feedback loop of "asset prices ↑ → exchange rate ↑ → capital inflow ↑" [3] - Risks associated with USD assets may drive international capital towards RMB assets, with attention on the narrowing of the China-US interest rate spread and the slope of domestic economic recovery [3] Traditional Interest Arbitrage Logic - Companies utilize trade channels: Export revenues in USD lead companies to retain foreign exchange domestically rather than converting to RMB when the China-US interest rate spread widens [6] - Matching RMB debt with USD assets: Companies increase RMB loans for daily funding needs while holding USD revenues as deposits to earn interest rate spreads [6] - The role of exchange rate expectations: If companies anticipate RMB depreciation against USD, holding USD deposits allows them to earn both interest rate spreads and exchange rate gains [6] Reverse Interest Arbitrage: Policy-Driven Capital Inflow - The negative swap points indicate appreciation expectations, with the current 1Y USDCNY swap points at -2224 points, suggesting an annualized arbitrage yield of approximately 3.06% [20] - USD holders can lock in exchange rate gains through buy/sell CNY swaps, making the actual yield of RMB assets (interest rate + appreciation gains) surpass US Treasury yields, creating a localized capital inflow loop [20] Counter-Cyclical Tool Impact - The reduction of positive interest arbitrage and the promotion of reverse interest arbitrage are conducted through two main lines: increasing liability costs and enhancing reverse interest arbitrage returns [23] - Short-term coordination of interest rate and exchange rate policies is necessary to adjust the midpoint and tighten offshore RMB liquidity, impacting offshore exchange rates to compress arbitrage space [25] - The counter-cyclical factor's use reflects a dynamic adjustment to manage exchange rate expectations, with intervention intensifying when the RMB shows weakness against a basket of currencies [28] Market Dynamics and Feedback Loops - The reversal of interest arbitrage will drive RMB appreciation, aligning with the "cognitive-behavioral-outcome" positive feedback mechanism [44] - The narrowing of interest spreads and the resulting cognitive corrections may lead to increased foreign capital inflow into Chinese assets, reinforcing the cycle of asset price increases and currency appreciation [44][47]

Group 1 - The report highlights that all six sub-sectors of the pharmaceutical index recorded positive returns, indicating a strong performance in the market [1] - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the establishment of a multi-payment system for innovative drugs, enhancing the collaboration between medical insurance and commercial insurance. It is noted that commercial insurance currently accounts for less than 8% of payments, with a clear policy directive to significantly increase this proportion, potentially leading to a market scale reaching trillions [2][8] - The report indicates that the innovative drug market in China is projected to reach 162 billion yuan in 2024, with medical insurance covering 44% and personal cash payments at 49%, while commercial health insurance contributes only 7.7%. This highlights the potential for commercial insurance to fill the payment gap for high-priced innovative drugs [8][9] Group 2 - The report discusses the structural contradictions revealed by the "2025 China Innovative Drug and Medical Device Multi-Payment White Paper," which indicates that the aging population and upgraded medical needs will challenge the basic medical insurance system's ability to cover high-cost innovative drugs [9] - The report notes that the government work report's focus on "medical, medical insurance, and pharmaceuticals" reflects a strategic shift to prioritize medical development, which is expected to reshape the healthcare industry and create new opportunities for pharmaceutical companies and insurance technology platforms [20][25] - The report outlines key points from the government work report, including the optimization of drug procurement policies, the establishment of an innovative drug directory, and the strengthening of basic medical services, all of which are expected to enhance the healthcare landscape in China [20][21][22]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the US stock market experienced a collective decline due to weak economic data and the escalation of Trump's tariff policies, with the S&P 500 index falling by 3.1%, marking the largest weekly drop since September of the previous year [2][9]. - Labor market data was below expectations, with the ADP employment number for February increasing by only 77,000, significantly lower than the expected 140,000, and the non-farm payrolls recording an increase of 151,000, slightly below the forecast of 160,000 [2][10]. - The ISM manufacturing PMI for February dropped to 50.3, close to the threshold indicating contraction, raising concerns about a potential recession [2][10]. Group 2 - The report notes that the Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish stance, with Chairman Powell indicating that there is no rush to cut interest rates until the impacts of Trump's policies become clearer [11][12]. - The report mentions that the Fed's decision-making should avoid overreacting to short-term fluctuations in monthly economic data, with expectations of two rate cuts this year still considered reasonable [11][12]. - Concerns about structural risks accumulating despite a solid economic foundation were raised by various Fed officials, indicating potential threats to the dollar's status as a reserve currency [11][12]. Group 3 - The report tracks global asset performance, noting that the Hang Seng Index had the highest increase at 5.62%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index saw a decline of 3.45% [38][43]. - In the commodities market, COMEX silver recorded the largest gain at 3.56%, while NYMEX light crude oil experienced the most significant drop at 4.15% [56][57]. - The foreign exchange market saw the euro appreciating by 3.79% against the renminbi, while the US dollar depreciated by 0.63% [50][52].