Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" based on the company's strong market position and expected performance [5][20]. Core Views - The initial ruling of the "double anti-dumping" investigation by the US against China's pulp molding industry has been released, with the company facing a significant anti-dumping tax rate of 470.63% [3]. - The company is strategically shifting its production to Thailand to mitigate the impact of tariffs, with a projected 52% of its revenue coming from exports to the US in 2024 [4]. - The global market for pulp molding is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.60% from 2023 to 2030, indicating a broad future market potential [5]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 357 million, 421 million, and 485 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 18%, and 15% [5][7]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 1,546 million yuan in 2024 to 3,216 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 24% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 3.17 yuan in 2025 to 4.74 yuan in 2027 [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading player in the domestic pulp molding market, benefiting from scale, research and development capabilities, and a strong customer base [5]. - The establishment of production facilities in Thailand is aimed at enhancing market competitiveness and addressing the challenges posed by the US tariffs [4][5]. - The company is actively exploring market opportunities in Europe, the Middle East, South America, and Australia to diversify its revenue streams [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI is upgrading traditional businesses and creating a second growth engine for various companies [2]. - Companies like Xiaomi, Alibaba, Tencent, Bilibili, and Kuaishou are leveraging AI technologies to enhance their business models and drive growth [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Xiaomi Group - Launched the open-source reasoning model Xiaomi MiMo with 7 billion parameters, excelling in mathematical reasoning and coding competitions [4]. - Integrated AI across its ecosystem, connecting mobile phones, smart cars, and IoT devices to optimize AI capabilities [4]. - Strengthened collaboration with Kingsoft Cloud through the release of the ninth-generation cloud server C9a, suitable for scientific computing tasks [4]. Alibaba - Released the new generation of open-source model family Qwen3, significantly reducing costs with a "mixed reasoning" architecture [4]. - Invested over 380 billion yuan in the next three years for cloud and AI hardware infrastructure [4]. - Reported continuous triple-digit year-on-year growth in AI revenue for six consecutive quarters [4]. Tencent - Restructured its AI departments to enhance focus on foundational AI technologies [4]. - Launched the AI assistant "Yuanbao" within the WeChat ecosystem, enhancing its value as an AI entry point [4]. Bilibili - Introduced AI data insights for the "618" shopping festival, improving efficiency in brand and merchant collaborations [4]. - Strengthened AIGC capabilities to assist brands in material matching and reduce advertising costs [4]. Kuaishou - Established the Keling AI division, which has generated over 100 million yuan in revenue since its commercialization [4]. - Utilized AI to transform marketing and operational processes, including AI-generated advertising materials [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights strong growth in the personal care e-commerce sector, particularly in April, with local brands rapidly gaining market share through platforms like Douyin [1][2] - The report emphasizes the resilience of various personal care categories, with significant year-on-year growth in sales across multiple platforms [2] Summary by Relevant Sections E-commerce Performance - In April, the GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) for sanitary napkins on Tmall increased by 22% year-on-year, with notable growth from local brands such as Naise Princess (+21%), Jieting (+60%), and Taotao Oxygen Cotton (+136%) [2] - Douyin saw a remarkable 62% year-on-year increase in sanitary napkin GMV, with local brands like Naise Princess (+377%) and Jieting (+52%) showing strong performance [2] Oral Care - The GMV for toothpaste on Tmall rose by 24% year-on-year, with local brands like Lengsuaning (+158%) and Yunnan Baiyao (+42%) outperforming foreign brands [2] - Douyin's toothpaste GMV increased by 78% year-on-year, with local brands leading the rankings [2] Diapers - The GMV for diapers and pull-ups on Tmall increased by 42% year-on-year, with leading brands such as Huggies (+62%) and Pampers (+118%) driving category growth [2] Tissue Products - The GMV for tissue products on Tmall rose by 22% year-on-year, with major brands like Vinda (+26%) and Heart to Heart (+46%) showing upward sales trends [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued investment in the personal care sector, highlighting the rapid growth of local brands and their expansion into various online and offline channels [2]

略研 策略点评报告 中美经贸谈判取得实质性进展彰显中国力量 投资要点: > 事件:当地时间5月10日至11日,中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高 层会谈,会谈达成了一系列重要共识;5月12日,中美双方发表日内瓦经 贸会谈联合声明,共同修改或取消相关关税,并建立机制,继续就经贸关 系进行协商。 > 我们认为此次中美经贸谈判取得了实质性进展,体现了中国捍卫全球 自由贸易体系的坚强决心,也彰显了中国不断上升的国家力量。此前美国 滥征所谓"对等"关税后,中国是第一个反制所谓"对等"关税的国家, 团队成员 策略点评报告 2025年5月12日 果客点评报 通过此次经贸磋商中,中美双方进行的坦诚、深入、具有建设性的交流, 最终取得了实质性进展,达成了重要共识。这样的结果来之不易,有利于 中美双方,有利于全球经济,也有利于全球资本市场的稳定。 > 风险提示:美国后续关税承诺未兑现 相关报告 1、《历史上的供给侧改革,对市场影响几何?》 2024. 6.1 2、《黄金这轮回调会有多深?》 分析师 朱斌 执业证书编号:S0210522050001 邮箱:zb3762@hfzq.com.cn 2024. 5. 26 3、《继续聚焦"轻 ...

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 05 月 12 日 关税缓和出口汇率趋升，提振内需迎来关键机遇 ——《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》点评 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 中美日内瓦经贸会谈获得明显积极进展，美对华加征关税阶段性大幅下 降，且双方同意建立持续磋商机制。据今日刚刚公布的中美日内瓦经贸会谈联 合声明，中美两国政府就缓和当前的经贸紧张关系达成初步的一致观点，其中 美方承诺取消根据 2025 年 4 月 8 日第 14259 号行政令和 2025 年 4 月 9 日第 14266 号行政令对中国商品加征的共计 91%的关税，并将 4 月 2 日行政令中对 华加征 34%的所谓"对等关税"修改为"其中，24%的关税在初始的 90 天内 暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余 10%的关税"。我 国也承诺对应降低关税反制措施强度。在大幅降低关税的基础上，双方将建立 机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。这一明确的联合声明意味着本轮美国发起的 关税战迎来趋于缓和的明确拐点。 相关报告 1、提振消费，加大投放，疏通利率，稳定汇率— —货币政策执行报告（25Q1）解读——2025.05.10 2、核心 C ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][13] Core Insights - The report highlights a temporary pause in the China-US trade conflict, which is expected to benefit the export sector, particularly in the light industry manufacturing sector [1][4] - The report indicates that in April, China's export value increased by 8.1% year-on-year in USD terms, while exports to the US decreased by over 20%. However, exports to ASEAN and the EU showed significant growth, with increases of 20.8% and 8.3% respectively [4] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year revenue growth of approximately 15.9% and a net profit growth of about 17% for major companies in the light industry export chain [4] Summary by Sections Trade Dynamics - The report discusses the recent progress in China-US trade negotiations, resulting in a reduction of incremental tariffs to 30% for the US and 10% for China [4] - The report notes that the export chain sector is expected to maintain strong performance due to the effects of export grabbing and transshipment amid the trade conflict [4] Company Performance - Major companies in the light industry export chain are reported to have robust overseas production capacity and are well-positioned to handle changes in tariff policies [4] - The report suggests that companies such as Jianlin Home, Henglin Shares, and Hars are recommended for attention due to their undervalued status and potential for valuation recovery [4] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the export chain remains a sub-sector with high short-term performance certainty, with expectations for accelerated export grabbing and transshipment in 2025 [4] - Companies with strong overseas production layouts and good profitability, such as Xiangxin Home and Gongchuang Lawn, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From May 6 - 9, short - term varieties performed well, with the 1Y CD rate breaking through the resistance level around 1.75% and dropping nearly 10BP. From May 12 - 16, the net payment of government bonds increased significantly to 6453 billion yuan, putting pressure on the capital market. However, the RRR cut on May 15 will provide 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity support, and it is expected that the capital interest rate will remain around 1.5%. The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation exceeded expectations, the bond market quickly adjusted, and the short - term still has value. If the capital interest rate stays around the policy rate, when the 1Y CD rate drops to around 1.6%, profit - taking is needed [3][9]. - The "2025 Q1 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" has three key points: First, it affirms the phased results of interest rate formation and transmission and will further improve the interest rate regulation framework; second, it shifts from focusing on activating the stock and preventing idling to increasing credit investment and highlighting quantitative tools; third, it mentions the US tariff policy multiple times and sets up a special column to discuss government debt and inflation [3][9][13]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Current Situation and Future Concerns - On May 7, a package of financial policies were introduced. From May 6 - 9, the net payment of government bonds was negative, but the capital price declined slowly before the interest rate cut on May 8, which may be related to the central bank's net reverse - repurchase withdrawal of over 1 trillion yuan from May 6 - 7. After the interest rate cut on May 8, the capital price dropped significantly. As of May 9, DR001 was 1.49%, R001 was 1.52%, DR007 was 1.54%, and R007 was 1.58%. The spread between DR007 and 7DOMO was 14BP, and the spread between R007 and DR007 remained within 5bp [8]. - The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation exceeded expectations, the bond market quickly adjusted, the long - end adjustment was larger, and the yield curve steepened. In the short term, the possibility of further easing decreased, and the short - term still has value [9]. 2. Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan, all from pledged reverse - repurchase. From May 12 - 16, the pledged reverse - repurchase due was 836.1 billion yuan and the MLF due was 125 billion yuan. The bill interest rate changed little from May 6 - 9, with the 3M national - share discount rate rising from 1.07% to 1.09% and the six - month national - share transfer discount rate remaining around 1.07% [32][34]. 3. Open - Market Operation Tracking - As of May 9, the central bank's total open - market operation balance was 9664.1 billion yuan, including a pledged reverse - repurchase balance of 836.1 billion yuan, a repurchase - style reverse - repurchase balance of 460 billion yuan, and an MLF balance of 465.7 billion yuan. From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan, all from pledged reverse - repurchase. From May 12 - 16, the pledged reverse - repurchase due was 836.1 billion yuan and the MLF due was 125 billion yuan [39]. 4. Government Bond Tracking 4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From May 5 - 9, treasury bonds were issued for 37.1 billion yuan with a net financing of 19.558 billion yuan; local bonds were issued for 10.5459 billion yuan with a net financing of 6.7224 billion yuan. From May 12 - 16, treasury bonds were issued for 55 billion yuan with a net financing of 46.067 billion yuan; local bonds were issued for 19.725 billion yuan with a net financing of 17.1114 billion yuan [45][47]. 4.2 Government Bond Payment - From May 6 - 9, the net payment of government bonds was - 12.29 billion yuan, with the net payment of treasury bonds at - 75.42 billion yuan and that of local bonds at 63.13 billion yuan. It is expected that from May 12 - 16, the net payment of government bonds will be 645.32 billion yuan, with the net payment of treasury bonds at 481.67 billion yuan and that of local bonds at 163.65 billion yuan [52]. 5. Inter - Bank Certificate of Deposit (CD) Tracking 5.1 Primary Market of Inter - Bank CDs - From May 6 - 9, inter - bank CDs were issued for 857.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of 368.5 billion yuan. From May 12 - 16, the maturity of inter - bank CDs was 593.9 billion yuan. In terms of bank types, joint - stock banks had the highest issuance scale; in terms of maturity types, 1Y had the highest issuance scale. The overall issuance success rate was 97%. The issuance success rate of state - owned banks was the highest at 100%, and that of 1Y was 98%. The issuance interest rates of all types of banks and all maturities decreased significantly [57][58]. 5.2 Secondary Market of Inter - Bank CDs - From May 6 - 9, after the central bank announced the RRR cut and interest rate cut, the secondary - market yields of CDs of all maturities decreased significantly, with the 3M CD yield dropping by 13bp and the yields of other maturities dropping by about 8bp [80]. 6. Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The estimated excess reserve ratio at the end of March 2025 was 1.00%. From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market net withdrawal was 781.7 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds was - 12.29 billion yuan, reducing the excess reserve scale by 769.41 billion yuan in total [86].

Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固定收益专题 2025 年 5 月 12 日 【华福固收】财税视角看县域经济 投资要点： 24 年县域社会消费增速高于全国，比重也有近三成，对全国的消 费拉动作用明显。县域消费更加具备活力，与城镇化、区域财力适当 下沉、区域内体制内职工就业与工资的相对稳定、网络普及消费观念 改变（个性化、悦己型）、供给端日益丰富和完善（包含电商下沉、 "最后一公里"的完善、《县域商业三年行动计划（2023—2025 年）》 政策）、大城市年轻人口回流、生育政策的改善、县域旅游热度提升等 密切相关。 政策端，如 23 年印发的《县域商业三年行动计划（2023—2025 年）》明确，到 2025 年，在全国打造 500 个左右的县域商业"领跑 县"，建设改造一批县级物流配送中心、乡镇商贸中心（大中型超市、 集贸市场）和农村新型便民商店。 观察近年各县及县级市税收及增速，近四年复合增速较高的县域 包括巴里坤哈萨克自治县、房县、枝江市、沙雅县、蒲县、西乌珠穆 沁旗、宜都市、达拉特旗、习水县、汾阳市、舞阳县、山阴县、应城 市、景宁畲族自治县、临颍县、中阳县等，税收增速高的县 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the exosome industry is in its early stages of industrialization, with significant growth potential anticipated in the coming years [3][8][9] - Exosomes, which are nano-sized vesicles involved in intercellular communication, play crucial roles in tumor progression, immune regulation, and metastasis, with applications in early cancer detection and treatment guidance [3][8] - The global exosome market is projected to grow from USD 112.25 million in 2022 to approximately USD 1.5 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.75%, with around 30% of applications in oncology and 50% of revenue generated by biopharmaceutical companies [3][8] Group 2 - The report notes that there are currently at least 46 companies in China engaged in exosome research and development, focusing on areas such as separation, purification, detection, new drug development, delivery, and diagnostics [3][8] - The industrialization of exosomes is still in its nascent phase, with only a few products available in the disease diagnosis sector, while drug delivery applications remain in early development without any products on the market [9] - The report emphasizes that the lack of a clear competitive landscape presents substantial opportunities for new entrants in the exosome industry [9]

策 略 研 究 华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 5 月 12 日 大事记下的市场运行 投资要点： 本周（5/5-5/9）市场偏强震荡，全 A 收涨 2.32%。从指数情况看，微 盘股、创业板指领涨，仅科创 50 收跌。从风格情况看，先进制造、金融地 产领涨，科技、医药医疗涨幅居后。本周 31 个申万行业全部收涨，国防军 工、通信、电力设备领涨，商贸零售、电子、房地产涨幅较窄。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差下降，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差下降至 1.4%，位于+1 标准差、+2 标准差之间。估值分化系数有 所上升。（2）市场情绪：市场情绪回暖，行业轮动强度上升。市场小盘风 格占优，微盘股指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在商业航天、军工信息 化、通用航空。（3）市场结构：市场量能环比上升，国防军工、家用电器、 计算机多头个股占比居前，石油石化、商贸零售、农林牧渔内部或存在α 机会。（4）市场资金：本周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周上升 187 亿 元，本周陆股通周内日平均成交笔数较上周上升 58 万笔。陆股通成交额排 名前三的标的为比亚迪、宁德时代、新易盛，近 5 日涨幅分 ...