行 业 研 究 华福证券 电子 2025 年 04 月 08 日 行业周观点：我国电子精密制造国际地位不可替代，反制有望提升国产化 渗透率，科技内循环初具成效 投资要点： "对等关税"扰动全球供应链，我国精密制造国际地位不可替代 行 业 定 期 报 告 4 月 2 日特朗普在白宫签署"对等关税"行政令；对等关税中亚洲 关税明显更高，其中越南 46%、泰国 36%、中国 34%、印尼 32%、印 度 26%、韩国 25%、马来西亚 24%、日本 24%。对中国的关税加上 3 月份执行的 20%，累积关税将达到 54%。关税税率变化大概可以简化 为(贸易逆差/进口总额/2)%；美国提升关税主要目的在于减少其巨额贸 易逆差、加速制造业回流、增加关税收入等。具体到电子和半导体领 域，据海关数据 2024 年我国出口至美国的电子类商品金额达 6242 亿 元，占对美出口金额 17%，是对美出口最大商品类别，体现了美国对 我国精密制造领域的依赖；半导体产品出口由于限制因素，出口至美 国的金额偏少仅 276 亿元，对等关税对半导体出口影响较低。鉴于我 国精密制造国际地位不可替代，同时相关企业已提前构筑了全球性供 应链体系， ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 04 月 07 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 关税反制落地，关注农业板块投资机会 投资要点： 行 华福证券 行 业 定 期 报 告 种植：加征关税提高进口成本，短期农产品价格或上涨。2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关税"。4 月 4 日，中方发出 反制措施，对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加 征 34%关税。在农产品中，我国对美依赖度（自美进口量在国内消费量占 比）较大的品种包括大豆（20%）、棉花（11%）等，关税影响较大。猪肉、 牛肉、鸡肉等自美进口量在消费中占比 1%左右或以下，关税影响相对有限。 具体来看，1）大豆：我国进口大豆以巴西、美国、阿根廷大豆为主，2018 年中美贸易战促使中国企业转向巴西、阿根廷等南美国家采购，我国大豆 对美依赖度已有所下降。2024 年我国自美进口大豆量为 2213 万吨，在国 内总消费中占比约 20%。分国别来看，2024 年在总进口量中美豆占比 21.1%，较 2017 年-13.3pct，巴西豆占比 71.1%，较 2017 年+17.8pct。加征 关税将直接推高美豆进口成本，利好远月大豆、 ...

本周专题：中美关税战升级 供应链本土化预计加速 行 业 研 究 汽车 2025 年 04 月 07 日 中美关税战升级 供应链本土化预计加速 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 当地时间 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普正式宣布了全球对等关税政 策。此举旨在加速特朗普重塑全球经济的计划，标志着特朗普贸易战 的急剧升级。特朗普宣布，将对所有对美有出口的国家征收至少 10% 的基准关税，并对约 60 个国家实施更高的对等关税，包括中国、欧盟、 日本和越南等美国的主要贸易伙伴，以应对与其他国家之间的巨额贸 易逆差。中国将面临 34%的对等关税，这一税率叠加今年已被征收的 20%关税，意味着许多中国商品面临的美国进口关税将远高于 50%。 需要指出的是，加拿大和墨西哥不在此次对等关税列表中，且符合 USMCA（美墨加协定）规则的合格产品也将继续获得关税豁免，同时 上述新的关税措施也不适用于已经受所谓"232 条款"调查影响的部分 产品，如汽车和汽车零部件、钢铁和铝产品、半导体和木材等。特朗 普同时确认，将从 4 月 3 日开始对全球汽车和轻型卡车征收 25%的关 税，并从 5 月 3 日开始对汽车零部件征收关税。 美国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The overall holding ratio of the pharmaceutical sector by funds has been continuously declining, with non-pharmaceutical active funds underweighting pharmaceuticals again since the first half of 2022 [9][11] - The holding ratio of all public funds in the pharmaceutical sector for the second half of 2024 is 9.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous period [3][11] - The holding ratio of all active public funds in the pharmaceutical sector is 9.9%, also down by 1.2 percentage points [3][11] - Non-pharmaceutical funds have a holding ratio of 6.0%, down by 0.8 percentage points, with an increased underweight ratio of 0.26% [3][11] Fund Holdings Overview - The holding ratios for different segments within the pharmaceutical industry show varied trends, with Pharma and Bio-Tech seeing increases, while generic drugs and traditional Chinese medicine are declining [5][15] - The top three segments with increased holdings among all public funds are CXO (+3.8%), Pharma (+2.7%), and Biotech (+0.8%) [8][11] - The top three segments with decreased holdings are medical devices (-1.9%), traditional Chinese medicine (-1.9%), and blood products (-1.3%) [8][11] Detailed Fund Type Analysis - Active pharmaceutical funds are overweight in Pharma, Biotech, and CXO, while non-pharmaceutical funds are overweight in Pharma, CXO, and medical devices [8][11] - The total market value of holdings for all public funds in the pharmaceutical sector is led by 恒瑞医药 (CNY 47.7 billion), 迈瑞医疗 (CNY 45.9 billion), and 药明康德 (CNY 37.2 billion) [8][11] - The top five stocks with increased holdings include 药明康德 (+CNY 7.5 billion) and 联影医疗 (+CNY 3.7 billion) [8][11]

华福证券 固收定期研究 2025 年 4 月 6 日 【华福固收】债券利率下行到位了吗？ 债券利率下行到位了吗？ 从短端利率来说，当前市场 7 天资金利率下行至 1.7-1.75%左右，考虑 7 天 OMO 政策利率在 1.5%，不能 排除市场资金利率还有下行空间，而且央行短期降准降息的概率预计也会提升，因此短端利率还有继续 下行的可能性，下行空间的打开根据实际资金利率水平的表现而定，短信用（1.85-1.9%左右）与存单 （1.8%左右）的利差、存单（1.8%左右）与资金利率（1.7%左右）的利差预计会继续保持在较低的正值 水平。考虑到短端利率债水平始终偏低，部分位置依然是负 carry 状态，因此短信用的确定性要高于短 利率，在整体曲线变陡的过程中，信用曲线变陡的胜率会更大一些。 长端利率方面，当前市场情绪偏好，利率处于容易下行状态。但长端利率存在两个问题：1.较平坦的收 益率曲线可能会制约长债利率的下行空间，从曲线形态来看，8-10Y 国债、5-6Y 和 9-10Y 国开受此影响 会相对小一些。但整体来说，长债利率的下行空间也需要资金下行和短端空间打开；2.长债利率是否会 突破年初低点？年初 1.6%的 ...

基础化工 2025 年 04 月 06 日 行 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：杜邦中国被立案调查，中国宣布对 美加征 34%关税或涉及新材料 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周，Wind 新材料指数收报 3642.47 点，环比下跌 1.3%。 其中，涨幅前五的有润阳科技(17.48%)、长阳科技(14.51%)、硅宝科技(5.49%)、 飞凯材料(5.41%)、阿拉丁(2.7%)；跌幅前五的有金博股份(-8.82%)、道恩股份 (-8.33%)、皇马科技(-7.73%)、阳谷华泰(-7.35%)、确成股份(-6.04%)。六个子 行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报 6121.87 点，环比下跌 1.23%；申 万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1080.32 点，环比下跌 2.24%；中信三级行 业有机硅材料指数收报 6132.17 点，环比下跌 2.5%；中信三级行业碳纤维指数 收报 1262.42 点，环比下跌 7.29%；中信三级行业锂电指数收报 1803.29 点， 环比下跌 3.64%；Wind 概念可降解塑料指数收报 1826.32 点，环比上涨 0.5%。 杜邦中国被 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit significantly from AI infrastructure, with a new growth phase in its cloud business starting [2][6]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.86%, and a net profit of 197 million yuan, a decrease of 0.49% [3][6]. - The company’s enterprise customer revenue grew by 1.82% year-on-year, while revenue from government, financial, and other sectors decreased by 3.85% and 8.99% respectively [4][5]. - The cybersecurity business saw a revenue decline of 6.75%, but strategic products like XDR and MSS showed significant growth potential [5]. - The cloud computing and IT infrastructure business revenue increased by 9.51%, with steady growth in SDDC, managed cloud, and distributed storage EDS [5]. - The company’s market share in hyper-converged infrastructure reached 18.8% in Q3 2024, and EDS storage market share was 11.1% [5]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company launched the AI computing platform AICP aimed at large model development scenarios, which is expected to support the demand for AI infrastructure and cloud services [6]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 8.08 billion yuan, 9.39 billion yuan, and 11.42 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 368 million yuan, 541 million yuan, and 912 million yuan [6][10]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's breakthroughs in AI infrastructure and its leading position in hyper-convergence [6].

行 业 机械设备 2025 年 04 月 06 日 研 究 玲龙一号国内首批新燃料运输容器通过验收，NuScale 第八个小堆模拟机在美国启用 投资要点： 玲龙一号国内首批新燃料运输容器顺利通过验收 行 业 定 期 报 3 月 31 日，由中核工程设计、西核设备承制的"玲龙一号"国内 首批新燃料运输容器顺利通过验收，该产品为国内首次完全自主设计 制造的核电新燃料运输关键设备，标志着我国在该领域的自主设计制 造取得了新突破。 NuScale 第八个小堆模拟机在美国启用 告 NuScale Power 宣布在 美国纽约 Troy 的 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute 开设能源探索中心并正式启用。该中心将通过整合实践经验来 补充理论知识，从而加强本科课程。位于 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute （RPI）工程学院在 Troy 校区的 Jonsson 工程中心的能源探索（E2）中 心于 2025 年 2 月安装完毕，通过模拟真实核电站运行场景为用户提供 了实践应用核科学和工程原理的机会。E2 中心采用最先进的计算机建 模来仿真由 12 个 NuScale ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [6] Core Views - The chemical sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with the overall market indices showing declines, while specific sub-sectors like food and feed additives are performing positively [2][16] - Key investment themes include the competitiveness of domestic tire manufacturers, the potential recovery in consumer electronics, and the resilience of certain cyclical industries [3][4][5] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.28%, the ChiNext Index by 2.95%, and the CSI 300 by 1.37% during the week [16] - The CITIC Basic Chemical Index decreased by 1.36%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index dropped by 1.19% [16] - The top-performing sub-sectors included food and feed additives (0.65%), membrane materials (0.32%), and potassium fertilizers (0.26) [18] Major Industry Developments - Wanhua Chemical's 1.2 million tons/year ethylene plant commenced production successfully on April 3, 2025 [3][25] - TBEA announced a large-scale coal-to-natural gas project with an investment of approximately 17.034 billion yuan, expected to start production in the fourth year [3] Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on scarce growth stocks such as Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [3] - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery is anticipated, with upstream material companies expected to benefit from the improving demand in the panel supply chain [4] - **Cyclical Industries**: Emphasis on industries with strong resilience and inventory destocking, particularly in phosphate and fluorine chemicals [5] - **Leading Companies**: As the economy improves, leading companies in the chemical sector are expected to benefit significantly from the recovery in prices and demand [5][10] - **Vitamin Supply**: Attention is drawn to vitamin products due to supply disruptions announced by BASF, which may lead to a supply-demand imbalance [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant market opportunity in the gout treatment sector, with innovative drugs expected to generate over 30 billion in market space [4]. - The report emphasizes the large patient population suffering from high uric acid and gout, with existing medications having various deficiencies [4][25]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Yipin Hong and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, which are leading in the development of innovative gout treatments [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Investment Strategy and Recommended Focus - The recommended focus for the week showed a performance that lagged behind the pharmaceutical index by 1.2 points but outperformed the broader market by 1.3 points [13]. 2. Gout Specialty: Potential for Innovative Drug Blockbusters 2.1. Patient Population and Existing Drug Deficiencies - The prevalence of high uric acid blood syndrome in China is approximately 13.3%, affecting around 177 million people, while gout affects about 14.66 million [25]. - Current treatments for gout and high uric acid have significant safety and efficacy issues, creating a substantial unmet need for effective medications [28]. 2.2. Innovative Drug Pipeline for Gout - The report identifies URAT1 as the primary target for new drug development, with Heng Rui leading domestically and Yipin Hong leading internationally [29]. - The report details that the majority of drugs in clinical development focus on URAT1, with promising candidates like Yipin Hong's AR882 showing superior efficacy in lowering uric acid levels [31]. 2.3. Efficacy of AR882 - Clinical trials indicate that AR882 significantly lowers serum uric acid levels, with 89% of patients achieving target levels after 12 weeks of treatment [34][39]. - The drug demonstrates a favorable safety profile, with only mild to moderate adverse events reported [38][47]. 3. Pharmaceutical Sector Weekly Market Review and Hotspot Tracking - The pharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, with the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rising by 1.2%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.5 percentage points [3]. - The report notes that the market's focus on the pharmaceutical sector has increased significantly, driven by ongoing policy support for innovative drugs and domestic procurement optimization [5].