公 司 研 究 华福证券 通信工程及服务 2025 年 04 月 09 日 纵横通信（603602.SH） evtol 机载飞控稀缺标的，低空+AI 未来星辰大海 投资要点： 国家高新技术企业，深耕通信行业，拓展新质生产力赛道。 公 司 首 次 覆 盖 公司成立于 2006 年，在通信建设领域深耕近 20 年，累积了丰富 的客户资源和项目经验。2017 年公司于上交所主板上市，2020 年开始 数字业务转型，并逐步确立了以 5G 新基建业务为主体，以政企行业数 智化服务及全域数字营销服务为两翼的"一体双翼"发展格局，2024 年 前三季度实现营业收入 13.40 亿元，同比+52.5%。此外公司积极探索 新质生产力业务机会，结合自身通信行业经验、上市平台和品牌优势 抢抓低空经济、人工智能等赛道的产业机会，打造新的增长极。 聚焦新一代网络通信产业，主业"一体两翼"稳中求进。 公司目前形成了以 5G 新基建业务为主体，以政企行业数智化服务 及全域数字营销服务为两翼的"一体双翼"发展格局。5G 新基建方面， 公司未来有望受益于 5G-A、算力网络以及低空基建的发展。全域数字 营销服务方面，公司具备资源优势，未来随着 ...

事件 公 司 财 报 点 评 公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司实现营收 189.06 亿元，同比 -42.66%，归母净利润-20.74 亿元，同比-141.93%，扣非后归母净利-8.87 亿元，同比-133.16%，业绩下降一方面因为锂价格下降，另一方面因 为 PLS 股价跌幅显著，导致公司产生了较大规模的公允价值变动损失。 24Q4 公司实现营业收入 49.81 亿元，同比-31.67%，环比+14.87%，归 母净利润-14.34 亿元，同比-34.86%，环比-1294.81%，扣非后归母净利 润-5.3 亿元，同比+68.4%，环比-168.65%。 公司锂盐产量提升 25%，但锂价下降 公 司 华福证券 锂 2025 年 04 月 09 日 赣锋锂业（002460.SZ） 买入（维持评级） 研 究 赣锋锂业 2024 年报点评：逆势布局显龙头韧性， 多维优势蓄力长期增长 投资要点： 锂价波动风险，全球新能源汽车销量不及预期，在建项目不及预期 | 财务数据和估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E 2027E | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Table_First|Table_Summary 固定收益专题 2025 年 4 月 9 日 【华福固收】头部城农商行的二永债怎么看 ➢ 头部城农商行的二永债怎么看 金融债市场里面，大型城农商行的二永债流动性强、市场认可度高，往往是除国股行二 永债之外的主要交易品种。因此本文主要聚焦头部城农商行的二永债，观察这些银行的 债券在不同债市行情下的表现，以及哪些个券的性价比相对更高。由于市场对"头部城 农商行"缺乏统一的界定标准，常见的划分通常基于银行资产规模，但在本文我们主要 以商金债的市场隐含评级为AAA-作为核心筛选依据，最终选定8家城农商行（北京银行、 上海银行、南京银行、江苏银行、宁波银行、徽商银行、杭州银行和上海农商银行）。 从调整的绝对幅度来看，这8家城农商行二永债的估值在不同行情下的调整和修复幅度 差距不大，或是因为整体资质较为相近的缘故。具体到各个银行的二永债来看，二永收 益率上行期，上海银行、上海农商行、杭州银行的二级资本债抗跌性更强；二永收益率 下行期，上海农商行、徽商银行的二级资本债，以及南京银行、徽商银行和宁波银行永 续债的领涨性更强。具体来看，例如在2022/10/31-2022/12 ...

华福证券 固收定期研究 2025 年 4 月 8 日 固 收 研 究 【华福固收】关税影响下资金面如何演 投资要点： 研 风险提示 政府债供给超预期、货币政策超预期、经济表现超预期。 分析师: 徐亮 执业证书编号：S0210524040003 邮箱：xl30484@hfzq.com.cn 研究助理： 黄紫仪 邮箱：hzy30614@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 究 报 告 绎？ 团队成员 Table_First|Table_Author 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 Table_Firs3 t r o p e R e p y T _ e l b a T | t s r i F _ e l b a T Table_First|Table_Summary Table_First|Table_ReportDate Table_First|Table_Contacter Table_First|Table_RelateReport 固收定期研究 华福证券 流 动 性 周 报 美国宣布将于4月9日征收"对等关税"，我国可能被加征34%的关税， 作为反制我国也宣布于4月10日对原产于美国的商品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [4][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.73 billion (up 18.9% year-on-year) and a net profit of 530 million (up 19.1% year-on-year) for 2024, with a significant increase in non-recurring net profit by 45% [1][4]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 940 million (up 35.6% year-on-year) and a net profit of 70.59 million (up 183.8% year-on-year) [1][4]. - The adjustments in the pharmaceutical channel have shown effectiveness, with the pharmaceutical industry segment achieving a revenue of 2.16 billion (up 17.8% year-on-year) and a gross margin of 71.4% [2][3]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from hemorrhoid treatment products reached 1.59 billion (up 23.2% year-on-year) with a gross margin of 74% [3]. - The medical commercial segment generated 1.25 billion (up 14.8% year-on-year) with a gross margin of 8.7% [2]. - The healthcare services segment achieved a revenue of 450 million (up 30.2% year-on-year) [2]. Product Development - The company has made progress in multiple research projects, including obtaining clinical approval for a new hemorrhoid treatment and registration for eye care medications [3]. - A total of 60 health products have been developed, covering various categories such as cosmetics and medical devices, laying a solid foundation for future market expansion in the health sector [3]. Financial Forecast - The revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.21 billion, 4.73 billion, and 5.27 billion respectively, with growth rates of 13%, 12%, and 11% [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 680 million, 760 million, and 840 million, with growth rates of 29%, 12%, and 10% [4].

Group 1: Fixed Income Plus Funds Tracking - The performance of various Fixed Income Plus funds shows significant differentiation, with stock-type and mixed-type funds experiencing considerable net value fluctuations due to stock market influences, while convertible bond products exhibit more stable net value performance [1][2][14] - From a performance perspective, mixed-type and convertible bond products have increased by 0.5% and 0.48% respectively this year, outperforming stock-type products which have only increased by 0.22% [2][14] - Fixed Income Plus funds have reduced their exposure to growth styles in equity assets while increasing investments in large-cap styles, resulting in a slight overall increase in equity positions [4][21] Group 2: Pure Bond Funds Tracking - The mid-to-long-term pure bond fund index has decreased by 0.29% this year, while the short-term pure bond fund index has increased by 0.13%. In March, pure bond funds consistently increased their exposure to convexity, focusing on a barbell maturity strategy while overall duration and credit risk exposure were reduced [6][37] - The pure bond fund selection strategy has outperformed the mid-to-long-term pure bond fund index, with the selected combination showing a 0.09% excess return this year [7][48] - The risk exposure analysis indicates that pure bond funds have reduced their duration and credit exposure while increasing convexity exposure, reflecting a more risk-averse operational logic [44]

Group 1 - The total IPO financing scale in the A-share market for March 2025 was 54.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 16% month-on-month. The main board raised 16.47 billion yuan, the ChiNext raised 22.25 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board raised 3.66 billion yuan [2][5][6] - A total of 10 new stocks were issued in March, representing an 11% increase month-on-month, with 3 from the main board, 5 from the ChiNext, and 1 from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2][6] - As of the end of March, there were 46 IPO projects approved but not yet issued across all A-share boards, with a total proposed fundraising scale of 776.9 billion yuan [11] Group 2 - The average winning rate for A/B class accounts on the main board in March was 0.0082% and 0.0070%, down 33% and 31% respectively month-on-month. For the ChiNext, the rates were 0.0117% and 0.0100%, down 49% and 52% respectively [17][22] - The average winning rate for A/B class accounts on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in March was 0.0412% and 0.0407% [23] - The contribution of new stocks to funds with a scale of 1-2 billion yuan was +0.206%, while for those with a scale of 2-3 billion yuan, it was +0.138%. The annualized return for funds in the 8-9 billion yuan range was 0.447% [29][30] Group 3 - In March 2025, a total of 2,963 funds participated in new stock subscriptions, with a total scale of 5.9 trillion yuan. The most numerous were equity mixed funds, totaling 1,165, followed by passive index funds with 664 [31][32] - The distribution of offline subscription limits for new stocks in the past three months was primarily in the [1,2) billion yuan range across various boards [12][14]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [17]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the home furnishing sector is primarily driven by domestic demand, with improving fundamentals and low valuations. The report suggests that the industry is at a turning point, with many companies currently valued at historical lows, presenting a buying opportunity [2]. - In the consumer discretionary sector, companies with low exposure to foreign markets are expected to benefit from industry recovery and consumption promotion policies. Specific companies are highlighted for their growth potential [3]. - The paper industry is anticipated to see cost increases due to tariffs on imported wood pulp, which may benefit domestic high-end corrugated paper manufacturers. The report suggests that domestic companies can adjust their supply chains to mitigate cost impacts [4]. - The metal packaging sector is primarily focused on domestic demand, with companies actively exploring Southeast Asian markets. The report predicts that as domestic demand recovers, the industry's profitability is likely to improve [4]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Domestic sales are the main focus, with companies like 欧派家居 (13x PE), 索菲亚 (11x), and 志邦家居 (9x) highlighted for their low valuations and potential for growth. The report notes that the domestic market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the second-hand housing sector [2]. Consumer Discretionary - Companies such as 晨光股份 (16x), 登康口腔 (31x), and 稳健医疗 (22x) are recommended due to their low foreign sales exposure and strong growth prospects driven by domestic consumption and strategic initiatives [3]. Paper Industry - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on imported wood pulp, suggesting that domestic high-end corrugated paper manufacturers like 山鹰国际 (16x) and 太阳纸业 (11x) may benefit from a potential demand gap created by these tariffs [4]. Metal Packaging - The report highlights that companies like 奥瑞金 (12x) and 昇兴股份 (10x) are primarily focused on domestic sales, with limited foreign exposure. The expectation is that as domestic demand improves, the industry's profitability will also recover [4].

Group 1 - The burden of cancer treatment costs for residents in China remains significant, with inpatient expenses accounting for 87.53% of total cancer treatment costs in 2018, indicating a focus on inpatient medical services [2][8]. - The adjustment of the medical insurance catalog and price reductions have stimulated clinical patient demand, leading to an increase in the variety and expenditure of antitumor and immunomodulatory agents used in hospitals [3][15]. - In 2018, the total cancer treatment costs in China reached 392.462 billion yuan, representing 11.11% of total disease treatment costs, with cancer treatment expenses constituting 83.44% of tumor treatment costs [8][12]. Group 2 - The average medical expense per hospitalization for cancer patients was 27,136.36 yuan in 2021, the highest among all disease categories, with cancer patients typically requiring 6-7 rounds of radiotherapy or chemotherapy post-surgery [10][11]. - The actual reimbursement rates for medical insurance are lower than policy levels, with 2019 reimbursement rates for employee and resident insurance at 75.6% and 59.7% respectively, leading to higher out-of-pocket expenses for cancer patients compared to other diseases [14]. - The number of antitumor and immunomodulatory agents used in hospitals has seen a significant increase, with a 19.05% rise in the number of varieties from 2015 to 2020 [15][21]. Group 3 - The expenditure on antitumor drugs has shown a steady growth trend, with a 53.85% increase in usage amount in sample hospitals from 2014 to 2019, outpacing the growth in the US market [21][25]. - The frequency of antitumor drug usage in hospitals has been on the rise, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.12% from 2014 to 2019, indicating a sustained clinical demand [28][29].

行 业 研 究 华福证券 电子 2025 年 04 月 08 日 行业周观点：我国电子精密制造国际地位不可替代，反制有望提升国产化 渗透率，科技内循环初具成效 投资要点： "对等关税"扰动全球供应链，我国精密制造国际地位不可替代 行 业 定 期 报 告 4 月 2 日特朗普在白宫签署"对等关税"行政令；对等关税中亚洲 关税明显更高，其中越南 46%、泰国 36%、中国 34%、印尼 32%、印 度 26%、韩国 25%、马来西亚 24%、日本 24%。对中国的关税加上 3 月份执行的 20%，累积关税将达到 54%。关税税率变化大概可以简化 为(贸易逆差/进口总额/2)%；美国提升关税主要目的在于减少其巨额贸 易逆差、加速制造业回流、增加关税收入等。具体到电子和半导体领 域，据海关数据 2024 年我国出口至美国的电子类商品金额达 6242 亿 元，占对美出口金额 17%，是对美出口最大商品类别，体现了美国对 我国精密制造领域的依赖；半导体产品出口由于限制因素，出口至美 国的金额偏少仅 276 亿元，对等关税对半导体出口影响较低。鉴于我 国精密制造国际地位不可替代，同时相关企业已提前构筑了全球性供 应链体系， ...