2025 年 03 月 29 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | | | 研究所： 证券分析师： 李航 S0350521120006 lih11@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 邱迪 S0350522010002 qiud@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李铭全 S0350523030001 limq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李昂 S0350525030002 lia@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 腾讯领投智元机器人新一轮融资，美国或考虑推 出机器人国家战略 ——人形机器人行业周报（0324-0330） 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | | 2025/03/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | | 电力设备 | -1.2% | -0.4% | 10.2% | | | 沪深 300 | 0.6% | -1.7% | 11.2% | | 相关报告 《人形机器人行业周报（0317-0323）：Optimus 即将进入试生产阶段，英伟达推出全球首款开源人 形机器人基础模型（ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the acceleration of distributed energy storage demand and emphasizes the importance of sodium battery solutions and new product iterations [4][5]. - The photovoltaic sector is expected to see continued growth in April, with a significant increase in component production and a strong demand for distributed and commercial projects [5][6]. - The report indicates that the global industrial and commercial energy storage market is entering a new growth phase, driven by economic viability and increasing backup power needs [5][6]. - The wind power sector is experiencing a surge in component production, with expectations of improved performance in the first quarter of 2025 [6]. - The report notes that multiple ultra-high voltage projects are entering the operational phase, which is expected to positively impact related companies [6]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - April component production is projected to continue growing, with a 35% month-on-month increase in March [5]. - The report anticipates that over 70% of distributed installations will come from distributed and commercial projects in the first half of the year [5]. - Key companies to watch include Arctech, Zhongtian Technology, and Longi Green Energy [5]. Energy Storage - The report identifies a significant increase in the demand for industrial and commercial energy storage solutions, supported by favorable policies and technological advancements [5][6]. - The European market for household energy storage is stabilizing, with record installation levels in the UK [5]. - Recommended companies in the energy storage sector include Airo Energy, Goodwe, and Sungrow [5]. Wind Power - The report notes a strong performance in the wind power sector, with a 27.5% increase in offshore wind turbine tenders compared to the first quarter of 2024 [6]. - Companies to focus on include Dongfang Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Hengtong Optic-Electric [6]. Ultra-High Voltage Projects - Several ultra-high voltage projects are nearing completion, with expectations for operational readiness by May 2025 [6]. - Companies such as Pinggao Electric and XJ Electric are highlighted as key players in this sector [6]. Sodium Battery Solutions - The report discusses the launch of new sodium-ion battery products by Zhongke Hai Sodium, which are designed for commercial vehicles [6]. - The sodium-ion battery technology is expected to see significant advancements, with energy density reaching 165 Wh/kg and rapid charging capabilities [6]. - Companies to monitor include Yuanli Co., Zhenhua New Materials, and Wuzhou New Energy [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][10]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady growth in business volume despite weak demand, with specific segments such as contract logistics, sea freight agency, railway agency, and air freight showing year-on-year increases of 4%, 13%, 14%, and 14% respectively [5]. - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio from 50% in 2023 to 54% in 2024, maintaining a dividend of 0.29 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.6% based on the closing price on March 25 [6]. - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with overseas investments rising by 44% year-on-year and overseas revenue increasing by 9% [7][8]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1056.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 39.18 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year [4]. - The company forecasts revenue growth of 8% in 2025, with projected revenues of 1138.48 billion yuan, and a net profit of 41.54 billion yuan, reflecting a 6% increase [10][11]. Segment Performance - The professional logistics segment generated revenue of 279.51 billion yuan in 2024, up 1.56% year-on-year, while the profit from this segment decreased by 31.81% [5]. - The agency-related business saw revenue of 671.70 billion yuan, an increase of 8.37%, although profits declined by 2.16% due to intensified competition in water transport, land transport, and warehousing [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a projected P/E ratio of 9.3 for 2025, decreasing to 8.7 by 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 exceeded market expectations, with significant improvements in profit margins [5] - The growth is driven by both overseas expansion and a dual-category strategy focusing on IP and product diversification [6][8] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.04 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 106.9%, and a net profit of 3.125 billion RMB, up 188.8% [6][9] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was 3.4 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 185.9% [6][9] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 66.8%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [6] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from mainland China reached 7.97 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 52.3%, accounting for 61.1% of total revenue [6] - Overseas revenue, including Hong Kong, Macau, and other international markets, was 5.07 billion RMB, showing a remarkable year-over-year growth of 375.2% [6] Operational Efficiency - The operating profit margin improved to 33.1% in mainland China, up 9.4 percentage points year-over-year [6] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.8146 RMB per share, totaling 1.094 billion RMB, which represents 35% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [6] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 21.75 billion RMB, 30.67 billion RMB, and 38.21 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.52 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 76.5% [9] Market Position - The company is recognized as a leader in the trendy toy culture and commercialization, leveraging its full industry chain and platform advantages [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated continuous growth with a revenue increase of 22% year-on-year, reaching 1.515 billion yuan in 2024, and a net profit increase of 39%, amounting to 350 million yuan [3][4]. - The foreign trade business has shown significant growth, with revenue rising by 91.8% to 600 million yuan, driven by high demand and capacity expansion [4][5]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 1.943 billion yuan, 2.495 billion yuan, and 2.991 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 28%, and 20% [7][8]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock performance over the past year shows an 18.4% increase compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 12.3% [2]. - As of March 27, 2025, the company's stock price is 15.91 yuan, with a market capitalization of 4.4548 billion yuan [2]. Financial Highlights - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 353 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.65%, and a net profit of 72 million yuan, up 3.35% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin for the foreign trade business improved by 4 percentage points to 29%, while the gross margin for domestic trade increased by 4.6 percentage points to 40.6% [4]. Capacity Expansion - By the end of 2024, the company operated 23 domestic chemical vessels with a total capacity of 243,600 DWT, achieving a market share increase of 1.8 percentage points to 16% [5]. - The company plans to add at least 12 stainless steel chemical vessels with a total capacity of 235,000 DWT from 2025 to 2027, indicating ongoing capacity expansion in foreign trade [5][6]. Long-term Growth Potential - The report highlights the company's position as a leading compliant player in the liquid hazardous goods transportation industry, which is expected to benefit from stricter regulations and limited supply [6]. - The anticipated recovery in domestic demand and the expansion of foreign trade capacity are expected to drive long-term growth for the company [6].

2025 年 03 月 28 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 51 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2024 年火电业绩同比改善，新增装机 7.8GW--华润电力/电力(00836/214101) 点评报告（港股美股） 授权及服务业务驱动营收放量，HSD 量产在即--地平线机器人-W/自动化设备(09660/216407) 点评报告（港 股美股） 煤炭及氧化铝价格影响业绩，2025 年盈利修复预期强--神火股份/工业金属(000933/212403) 公司点评 2024Q4 营收同环比重回正增长，AI 赋能建筑 IT 价值提升--广联达/软件开发(002410/217104) 公司动态研究 2024 年业绩维稳，板块β×公司α持续--中联重科/工程机械(000157/216406) 公司点评 逾期及关注率大幅改善，存款利率加速下行--重庆银行/城商行Ⅱ(601963/214804) 公司点评 2024 年营收重回正增长，迎接 AIDC 产业机遇--大位科技/IT 服务Ⅱ(600 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 12.6% to 1.82 billion RMB and a net profit growth of 13% to 195 million RMB in 2024, with a gross margin of 49.14%, an increase of 4.68 percentage points year-on-year [6][10]. - The company is expected to continue its multi-brand and multi-category channel development strategy, enhancing its competitive advantages through product innovation and channel optimization [10]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The home care product segment showed stable growth, with revenue reaching 1.634 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a gross margin improvement from 45.0% in 2023 to 49.2% in 2024 [7]. - The pet product segment experienced rapid growth, with revenue of 127 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 64.49%, and a gross margin increase from 43.2% to 54.7% [7]. Channel Development - Online sales channels achieved revenue of 671 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, with gross margins rising from 47.8% to 55.8% [7]. - Offline sales channels generated 1.149 billion RMB in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with gross margins improving from 42.7% to 45.2% [7]. Research and Innovation - The company has a strong focus on research and development, with over 172 patents by the end of 2024, and notable product performance in various categories [7][10]. - Key products such as the "Super Mosquito Repellent Green Bottle" and "Pet Food Fresh Package" have seen significant sales growth, indicating strong market demand [7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.006 billion RMB, 2.206 billion RMB, and 2.420 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 225 million RMB, 247 million RMB, and 271 million RMB [10][11]. - The expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the next three years are 12, 11, and 10 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [10].

证券研究报告 2025年03月27日 食品饮料 高端化进入中场，大单品规模初成 ——啤酒行业系列报告（一） 袁冠(证券分析师) S0350524050001 yuang@ghzq.com.cn 核心要点 p 高端化复盘：2018~2023年为高端化初期（吨价CAGR 5.7%），主要成果为次高及以上价格带扩容，高端大单品规模初成 Ø 大单品：大单品就是厂家最好的增长抓手，越向高端市场竞争，越需要大单品进行突破。总量格局已定（区域割据），但在高端市场持续扩容的情况下，高端竞争格局未定， 一旦大单品突破，就有机会改变现有啤酒行业竞争格局。2019~2023年为内资高端化第一个五年，主要成果为头部厂家大单品初备规模（大部分已超过40万吨级）。 p 吨价预测：我们预计2023~2024年高端化趋势放缓， 预计乐观情况下我国啤酒行业吨价2022-2027增速为7.33% 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 p 量价复盘：总量啤酒格局已定，低价竞争无法带来增量与吨价增长（通过提价），高端化升级是实现我国啤酒行业价增的长期源动力 Ø 量： 1）2000~2012年：增量阶段我国啤酒行业并购整合驱动，竞争导向为市占 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 reached HKD 105.3 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 14.39 billion, up 30.8% year-on-year [5][7] - The improvement in net profit is primarily attributed to better performance in thermal power and a significant reduction in asset impairment losses [7] - The company plans to add 10 GW of new renewable energy capacity in 2025, following the addition of 7.8 GW in 2024 [7] Financial Performance - In the second half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of HKD 54.16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with a net profit of HKD 5.03 billion, up 17.9% [5] - The operating net profit from thermal power was HKD 4.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, driven by a 4.2% decrease in fuel costs due to falling coal prices [7] - The company reported a significant reduction in asset impairment losses, down HKD 2.17 billion to HKD 0.58 billion in 2024 [7] Renewable Energy Segment - The operating net profit from renewable energy was HKD 9.23 billion, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of HKD 3.67 billion in the second half of 2024, down 2.6% [7] - The company achieved a total of 13.6 GW in renewable energy development indicators, with wind and solar power accounting for 7.7 GW and 5.9 GW, respectively [7] Future Projections - The company expects revenues of HKD 107.1 billion, HKD 114.0 billion, and HKD 118.1 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at HKD 14.44 billion, HKD 15.05 billion, and HKD 15.53 billion [9][10] - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 6.25, 6.00, and 5.81, indicating a stable outlook for earnings [10]

2025 年 03 月 27 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 50 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 财政支出前置促经济回升--宏观点评 商业航天行业报告：商业航天方兴未艾，低轨卫星星座建设加速--行业 PPT 报告 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、财政支出前置促经济回升--宏观点评 分析师：夏磊 S0350521090004 事件： 3 月 24 日，财政部公布今年前两个月的财政收支数据：1-2 月，全国一般公共预算收入 43856 亿元，同比下 降 1.6%；全国一般公共预算支出 45096 亿元，同比增长 3.4%；全国政府性基金预算收入 6381 亿元，同比 下降 10.7%；全国政府性基金预算支出 11358 亿元，同比增长 1.2%。 投资要点： 财政收入总体平稳，主力税种收入有所上升 总体上，1-2 月全国一般公共预算收入同比小幅下降 1.6%，收入进度为 19.9%，略低于过去五年同期平均水 平；政府性基金预算收入同比下降 10.7%，收入进度为 10.2 ...