证券研究报告 2025年05月20日 计算机 计算机行业动态报告： 下游资本开支持续高增， "AI芯片+算力租赁"增速领先 ——AI算力月度跟踪（202505） 评级：推荐(维持) 刘熹(证券分析师) S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -26% -10% 7% 24% 41% 58% 2024/05/20 2024/08/20 2024/11/20 2025/02/20 计算机 沪深300 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机 | 4.3% | -13.4% | 28.8% | | 沪深300 | 2.8% | -1.6% | 5.4% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 《行业拐点或已显现，迎接AI时代晨曦——计算机2024年报和2025一季报总 结（推荐）*计算机*刘熹》——2025-05-12 《计算机行业深度：大模型研究框架（2025）——"大模型"系列（5）（推 荐）*计算机*刘熹》——2025-04-21 《计算机"人工智能"系列专题： ...

Group 1: Company Insights - Ba Tian Co., Ltd. announced a stock incentive plan, granting a total of 23 million shares, representing 2.39% of the company's total share capital, with performance targets set for 2025 and 2026 [4][5] - The company plans to expand its phosphate rock production capacity to 2.9 million tons per year, with an investment of up to 150 million RMB for the second phase of the Xiaogaozhai phosphate mine project [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 5.3 billion RMB and net profit of 1.22 billion RMB in 2025, with a PE ratio of 8 times [7] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The heavy truck market in China is expected to see a recovery in demand, with a 6% year-on-year increase in insurance registrations for heavy trucks in April 2025 [23][24] - The implementation of the old-for-new subsidy policy for heavy trucks is expected to boost sales, with 27 out of 31 provinces having announced specific subsidy application channels by mid-May 2025 [25][26] - The domestic wholesale growth rate for heavy trucks is projected to exceed 15% in 2025, driven by the old-for-new policy and a recovery in demand [26][27] Group 3: Financial Performance - Xin Jie Electric reported a revenue of 1.7 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, with a net profit of 229 million RMB, up 14.84% [9][10] - Niu Wei CNC achieved a revenue of 2.462 billion RMB in 2024, with a net profit of 325 million RMB, reflecting a steady growth despite industry challenges [17][18] - JD Health reported a revenue of 16.6 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a 25.5% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit rising by 47.7% [45][46]

Market Performance - As of May 16, 2025, the North Exchange 50 Index increased by 8.90% over the past month, 15.56% over the past three months, and 79.80% over the past year[1] - The average market capitalization of the 266 A-share constituent stocks on the North Exchange is 3.016 billion yuan[9] - The daily average trading volume for the North Exchange 50 was 34.684 billion yuan, up 11.45% from the previous week, with a turnover rate of 4.55%[22] Stock and Industry Trends - Out of 266 stocks, 179 rose, 87 fell, and none remained flat, resulting in a rise ratio of 67.29%, which is a decrease of 24.40 percentage points week-on-week[15] - The top five performing industries were non-ferrous metals (226.44%), transportation (74.60%), public utilities (10.56%), beauty care (9.32%), and food and beverage (8.85%)[19] - The bottom five industries included defense and military (−2.82%), computer (−1.26%), social services (−0.96%), electric equipment (−0.36%), and communication (0.27%)[19] New Listings and Company Insights - Tian Gong Co., Ltd. was listed on May 13, 2025, with a revenue of 801 million yuan and a net profit of 172 million yuan in 2024[26] - The company experienced a significant revenue increase of 170.23% in 2023, reaching 1.035 billion yuan, with a net profit of 170 million yuan[27] - Tian Gong's gross margin was 30.40% in 2024, an increase of 4.88 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 21.78%, up 4.86 percentage points[27] Investment Strategy and Risks - The North Exchange 50 Index continues to lead the market, with a focus on companies with stable growth and reasonable valuations[3] - Recommended stocks include Tongli Co. (PE 10.72), Wuxin Tunnel Equipment (PE 20.10), and Kaide Quartz (PE 33.40) among others[4] - Key risks include systemic risks, reliance on imported technology and materials, policy risks, and potential underperformance of key companies[35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][12][13] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 28.829 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.301 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 34.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17.5% [4][8] - The gaming business showed strong growth, with revenue from games and value-added services reaching 28.83 billion yuan, driven by new game launches and a robust strategy of "refinement and longevity" [8][10] - The company is expected to continue focusing on innovation and long-term operations, enhancing the gaming experience for global players [8][10] Financial Performance - Key financial metrics for Q1 2025 include: - Revenue: 28.829 billion yuan (YoY +7.4%, QoQ +7.8%) - Net profit: 10.301 billion yuan (YoY +34.9%, QoQ +17.5%) - Non-GAAP net profit: 11.237 billion yuan (YoY +32%, QoQ +16.1%) - Gross margin: 64.1% (YoY +0.7pct, QoQ +3.3pct) [4][8] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 601.54 billion HKD, with a current share price of 190.00 HKD [6][8] Business Segments - **Gaming Business**: Revenue from gaming and value-added services was 28.83 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 68.8%. New games contributed significantly to revenue growth, with titles like "Marvel Duel" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" achieving notable success [8][10] - **Youdao**: Revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.298 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-over-year. However, operating profit increased significantly, indicating improved financial efficiency [8][10] - **NetEase Cloud Music**: Revenue was 1.858 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-over-year, but cost control measures led to a gross margin of 36.7% [8][10] - **Innovative and Other Businesses**: Revenue decreased by 17.6% year-over-year to 1.624 billion yuan, with a focus on high-quality products and services [8][10] Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025: 1140 billion yuan - 2026: 1239 billion yuan - 2027: 1303 billion yuan - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2025: 39 billion yuan - 2026: 43.5 billion yuan - 2027: 46.1 billion yuan [11][12]

Report Overview - The report is titled "Benchmark Deviation Consideration: How Public Funds Allocate Industries - Asset Allocation Special Report" and was released on May 19, 2025 [3][1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's "Action Plan for Promoting the High - quality Development of Public Funds" aims to shift fund companies from "emphasizing scale" to "emphasizing returns" and address the issue of fund style drift [5][13] - Style - stable funds generally perform better in the medium - to - long term than style - drifting funds, and style stability helps investors form stable investment expectations [6][14] - There is no significant correlation between the industry deviation of active equity funds and their returns, and industry drift does not contribute to excess returns [7][19] - If the industry allocation of funds moves closer to the performance benchmark, the financial sector may experience a resonance of fundamentals and capital flows [7][28] Summary by Directory 1. The Formal Release of the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - quality Development of Public Funds" - On May 7, the CSRC issued the plan, which includes 25 measures to promote the transformation of fund companies and address style drift [13] - Due to factors such as rapid market style changes, short - term performance pressure, and the pursuit of channel attention, the problem of fund style drift in China remains unsolved [14] - The plan includes measures such as establishing a floating management fee collection mechanism linked to fund performance, strengthening the constraint of performance benchmarks, enhancing transparency, reforming performance assessment mechanisms, and strengthening regulatory classification evaluation [15] 2. Current Industry Deviation of Active Equity Funds from the Benchmark - The average comprehensive industry deviation of active equity funds is 101%, and the average comprehensive industry deviation scale is 6.66 billion yuan, indicating a large deviation from the performance benchmark [7][18] - Most funds' industry deviations fall within the [80%, 120%) and [120%, 160%) intervals [7][18] - According to the 2024 annual reports, the most under - allocated industries are banks (-7.03%) and non - banks (-6.65%), while the top three over - allocated industries are electronics (+5.15%), machinery and equipment (+2.20%), and automobiles (+1.84%) [7][28] - There is more than 100 billion yuan of under - allocation in the bank and non - bank sectors compared to the benchmark index. If the allocation moves towards the benchmark, about 300 billion yuan may flow into the financial sector [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [1][46] Core Insights - Tencent's Q1 2025 financial results show strong revenue growth driven by gaming and advertising, with significant operational leverage from AI integration [3][11][46] - The company achieved a revenue of 180 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 13% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4% [12][17] - Non-IFRS net profit reached 61.3 billion RMB, up 22% year-over-year, indicating robust profitability [12][17] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 180 billion RMB, with operating profit at 57.6 billion RMB and net profit at 47.8 billion RMB [12][17] - The overall gross margin improved to 55.8%, up 3.24 percentage points year-over-year [17][22] - Non-IFRS operating profit grew by 18% year-over-year, reflecting effective cost management and revenue growth [12][17] Operational Data - WeChat's monthly active users (MAU) reached 1.402 billion, growing 3% year-over-year [8][13] - The number of registered accounts for value-added services increased to 268 million, a 3% year-over-year growth [8][13] Business Segments - Gaming revenue accelerated by 24% year-over-year, with domestic and international markets growing by 24% and 22% respectively [29][30] - Marketing services revenue grew by 20% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for advertising within the WeChat ecosystem [38][40] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue increased by 5% year-over-year, with a notable recovery in cloud services [41][42] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 725.6 billion RMB, 791.3 billion RMB, and 863.1 billion RMB respectively [46] - Non-IFRS net profit projections for the same period are 254.7 billion RMB, 286.5 billion RMB, and 321.8 billion RMB [46] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure in Q1 2025 reached 27.5 billion RMB, a 91% increase year-over-year, reflecting investments in AI and core business operations [43][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential revaluation of phosphate rock value due to ongoing supply-demand tensions, with increasing demand for phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphate batteries [6][4]. - The chemical industry is expected to enter a restocking cycle in 2025, driven by low inventory levels and improving profitability among leading chemical companies [5][27]. - The report emphasizes the expansion of phosphate production capacity by Batian Co., which is set to increase its phosphate rock extraction capacity to 2 million tons per year [4][6]. Summary by Sections Core Target Tracking - The report tracks key companies in the chemical sector, including Batian Co., which is expanding its phosphate production capacity significantly [4][6]. - It also notes the performance of various chemical products, with a focus on price increases for butadiene and polyester filament due to favorable market conditions [10][14]. Market Observation - The chemical sector has shown a relative performance of 6.7% over the past month, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2]. - The report indicates that the chemical industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with several companies poised for growth due to favorable market dynamics [5][27]. Data Tracking - The report provides detailed tracking of price movements for key chemical products, including butadiene, polyester filament, and various fertilizers, indicating a general upward trend in prices [10][12][17]. - It also highlights the current chemical industry sentiment index at 93.10, reflecting a positive outlook for the sector [6][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with low-cost expansion capabilities, such as Wanhua Chemical and various tire manufacturers, as well as those benefiting from rising product prices [5][7]. - It emphasizes the importance of high dividend yield companies in the chemical sector, particularly state-owned enterprises with stable financials [8][29].

评级：推荐(维持) 证券研究报告 2025年05月18日 有色金属 铝行业周报：中美双边关税大幅下降，库存维持强势表现 《铝行业周报：关税压力缓和，政策定调积极（推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈 晨》——2025-04-28 《铝行业周报：去库表现强势，关注需求及出口走向（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2025-04-21 《铝行业周报：关税压力缓解，铝价压制减弱，关注需求变化（推荐）*有色 金属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-04-14 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.7% | 1.3% | -0.0% | | 沪深300 | 3.1% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 陈晨（证券分析师） 王璇（证券分析师） S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -24% -16% -8% 1% 9% 17% 2024/05 2024/08 2024/11 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price expectations are beginning to improve as port inventory decreases and power plant replenishment demand becomes evident [1][7] - The supply side is tightening due to safety and environmental inspections leading to temporary mine closures, while demand remains supported by non-electric sectors [5][15] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with high dividends and strong cash flows, amidst market volatility [7][81] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The port coal price decline has narrowed to 16 CNY/ton this week, down from 22 CNY/ton the previous week, indicating a potential stabilization [15][79] - The production capacity utilization in the main producing areas has decreased by 0.99 percentage points due to inspections and maintenance [15][79] - Coastal and inland power plant coal inventories are relatively low compared to last year, with a total of 11,478 million tons as of May 14, 2025, which is 146 million tons lower than the same period last year [15][79] 2. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal remains stable, with the capacity utilization rate unchanged, while imports have increased slightly [5][80] - Coking coal prices have remained stable at ports, with the average price at 1,320 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [47][80] - The inventory of coking coal production enterprises has increased by 23.22 million tons, indicating a slight oversupply [46][80] 3. Coke - The utilization rate of coking enterprises has increased to 76.02%, reflecting high production levels despite a slight decrease in iron output [6][59] - Coke prices have decreased slightly, with the price at 1,400 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [59][60] - The overall profitability in the coke industry has improved, with an average profit of 7 CNY/ton, up by 6 CNY/ton from the previous week [62][66] 4. Anthracite Coal - The price of anthracite coal has remained stable, with the price at 850 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [76][78] - The demand from non-electric sectors, particularly the chemical industry, continues to support the anthracite market [76][78] 5. Key Companies and Investment Logic - The report emphasizes the investment potential in coal companies with strong fundamentals, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal [7][81] - The focus is on companies that exhibit characteristics of high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yields, which are attractive in the current market environment [7][81]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy, which is anticipated to support consumer demand and boost sales in 2025 [16] - The report highlights a significant increase in the first-quarter performance of Geely, with revenue reaching 72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.6%, and a net profit of 5.67 billion yuan, up 263% [27] - The report emphasizes the strategic integration of Geely and Zeekr Technology Group under the "One Geely" strategy to enhance resource allocation and improve competitiveness in the market [12][27] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - From May 12 to May 16, the automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with the automotive index rising by 2.4% compared to the index's 0.8% increase [17] - The performance of individual segments during this period showed passenger vehicles up by 4.4%, while commercial vehicles declined by 1.7% [17] Key Company Developments - Geely launched its 2026 C10 model, priced between 122,800 to 142,800 yuan, featuring a maximum range of 605 km for the pure electric version [13] - Great Wall Motors introduced the new high-end MPV, the Wei brand Gao Shan, starting at 309,800 yuan, equipped with advanced driving assistance systems [14] - NIO's new ES6 and EC6 SUVs were launched with starting prices of 338,000 yuan and 358,000 yuan, respectively, showcasing significant performance metrics [15] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in heavy truck demand in 2025 after three years of low performance, recommending leading companies in the commercial vehicle sector [16] - The report suggests that companies with high-quality supply in the automotive sector are likely to benefit significantly, recommending stocks such as Li Auto, BYD, and Great Wall Motors [16][6] Stock Recommendations - The report lists several companies with strong earnings forecasts and investment ratings, including: - Li Auto (buy) with an expected EPS of 5.03 in 2025 - BYD (buy) with an expected EPS of 18.15 in 2025 - Great Wall Motors (increase) with an expected EPS of 1.63 in 2025 [54]