研究所： 证券分析师： 邱迪 S0350522010002 qiud@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李航 S0350521120006 lih11@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 铸件产能加速释放，一季度业绩预计同比高增 ——金雷股份（300443）2024 年报&2025 年一 季度业绩预告点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | | 2025/03/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 金雷股份 | | -0.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | | 沪深 300 | | 0.6% | -1.7% | 11.2% | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) | 市场数据 | 2025/03/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 21.31 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 13.51-27.41 | | 总市值（百万） | 6,822.07 | | 流通市值（百万） | 5,173.51 | | 总股本（万股） | 3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) as of March 28, 2025 [4][8]. Core Views - The report highlights that despite a decline in coal prices, the optimization of coal chemical profitability and an increase in coal production volume will stabilize future performance [5][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 139.12 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.43 billion yuan, down 28.39% year-on-year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's coal production reached 142.49 million tons in 2024, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year, while sales volume was 136.31 million tons, up 7.3% year-on-year [5]. - The average selling price of coal decreased to 672 yuan per ton, down 16.3% year-on-year [5]. Financial Metrics - The company achieved a weighted average ROE of 18.30%, a decline of 3.58 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 127.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 8% [7]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 0.77 yuan per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 53.59% and a dividend yield of 5.7% [8]. Future Outlook - The company has a rich reserve of projects, with the Wanfeng Coal Mine expected to commence production by the end of 2024 and the Wucaiwan No. 4 Coal Mine planned for 2025 [5]. - The company aims to achieve a coal production scale of 300 million tons per year within the next 5-10 years, supported by ongoing project developments [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 28.262 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 11.513 billion yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year, with an acceleration in growth compared to the previous quarters [5][8]. - The asset scale of the company expanded steadily, with total assets reaching 15,149.42 billion yuan, a 5.1% increase from the previous year. Customer deposits totaled 9,419.46 billion yuan, also up 5.1% year-on-year [5][8]. - Non-interest income showed significant growth, amounting to 5.767 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 29.23% year-on-year, contributing to 20.41% of total revenue, up 4.44 percentage points from the previous year [5][8]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company outperformed the CSI 300 index with a 12-month return of 41.6%, compared to the index's 11.2% [4]. - The stock price as of March 28, 2025, was 6.02 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 4.43-6.20 yuan [4]. Financial Highlights - The company reported a net interest margin of 1.61%, down 12 basis points year-on-year, but stable quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.18% at the end of 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 363.44%, indicating stable asset quality [5]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 28.671 billion yuan, 29.917 billion yuan, and 31.205 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.45%, 4.34%, and 4.31% respectively. Net profit projections are 11.846 billion yuan, 12.311 billion yuan, and 12.771 billion yuan, with growth rates of 2.89%, 3.92%, and 3.74% respectively [7][8].

请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 2 2025 年 03 月 31 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 52 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 海外持续高增，IP&品类双轮驱动--泡泡玛特/文娱用品(09992/213605) 点评报告（港股美股） 成长持续兑现，产能扩张延续--兴通股份/航运港口(603209/214211) 公司点评 业务量稳健增长，海外布局渐趋完善--中国外运/物流(601598/214208) 公司点评 分布式储能需求加速，关注钠电方案新品迭代--行业周报 腾讯领投智元机器人新一轮融资，美国或考虑推出机器人国家战略--行业周报 高端突围出海蓄势，产能加码静待春天--海天精工/通用设备(601882/216401) 公司点评 业绩超预期，新兴成长+提质增效双轮驱动--广电计量/专业服务(002967/214608) 公司点评 成本控制优异、在建项目逐步投产将增厚业绩--淮北矿业/煤炭开采(600985/217401) 公司点评 分红比例突破 30%，拨备覆盖率环比提 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is characterized by high profitability, strong cash flow, high barriers to entry, high dividends, and high safety margins, suggesting a valuable investment opportunity in the sector [7][77] - The supply constraints in the coal mining industry remain unchanged, while demand may experience fluctuations, leading to price volatility and dynamic rebalancing [77] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Port inventory has decreased, and the decline in port prices has narrowed, indicating a stable supply from major production areas [13][75] - The average daily shipment volume on the Daqin line has decreased by 24,100 tons week-on-week, while the daily number of cars dispatched by the Hohhot Railway Bureau has increased by 4 [13][75] - The daily consumption of coastal and inland power plants has decreased by 76,000 tons and 141,000 tons respectively, with inventory changes reflecting a decrease of 92,000 tons and an increase of 1,960,000 tons [13][75] - The port price decline is expected to stabilize, with coal prices likely to show narrow fluctuations in the short term [13][75] Coking Coal - Production has slightly contracted, with the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreasing by 0.21 percentage points to 88.2% [3][76] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port has increased by 53 cars week-on-week, indicating improved import activity [3][76] - The overall supply-demand situation is improving, with coking coal production enterprises continuing to reduce inventory [3][76] Coke - After eleven rounds of price declines, coke prices are stabilizing, supported by raw material coal prices [53][76] - The average daily iron and steel production has increased for five consecutive weeks, leading to a positive outlook for coke demand [53][76] - The capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises has increased by 0.12 percentage points to 74.82% [53][76] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal, all of which are expected to maintain strong performance and high dividends [8][77] - The report highlights the investment value of companies with high cash flow and stable earnings, such as China Shenhua, which has a cash dividend of 44.903 billion yuan and a dividend yield of 6% [4][77]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 decreased by 0.48% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed quarter by quarter, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.22% year-on-year. Both total assets and customer deposits grew at a rate exceeding 10% [7][10]. - The company continues its tradition of high dividends, proposing a cash dividend of 2 yuan per share (before tax), with a payout ratio of 35.32% [7][11]. - Retail business showed continued growth despite a high base, with retail customer AUM increasing by 12.05% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company reported a stable asset quality, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.95% and a provision coverage ratio of 411.98% as of the end of 2024 [7][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company's revenue increased by 7.53% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 7.63% year-on-year, indicating strong quarterly performance [7][10]. - Non-interest income grew by 1.41% year-on-year, offsetting a 1.58% decline in net interest income [7][10]. Asset and Deposit Growth - As of the end of 2024, total assets exceeded 12.15 trillion yuan, growing by 10.19% year-on-year, while total customer deposits reached 9.10 trillion yuan, up by 11.54% year-on-year [7][10]. - The total loan amount was 6.88 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.83%, particularly in technology, green, and inclusive loans [7][10]. Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 344.3 billion yuan, 364.8 billion yuan, and 388.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.06%, 5.91%, and 6.58% [9][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 153.3 billion yuan, 165.5 billion yuan, and 177.9 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 3.30%, 7.94%, and 7.54% [9][10]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 7.10, 6.57, and 6.10 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, while the P/B ratios are expected to be 0.93, 0.85, and 0.78 [9][10].

2025 年 03 月 30 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) ——通达创智（001368）2024 年年报点评 最近一年走势 | 300 表现 | | 2025/03/28 | 相对沪深 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1M | 3M | 12M | 表现 | | 10.1% | 17.2% | 13.3% | 通达创智 | | 0.6% | -1.7% | 11.2% | 沪深 300 | | | | 2025/03/28 | 市场数据 | | | | 22.75 | 当前价格（元） | | 周价格区间（元） | | 16.22-25.30 | 52 | | | | 2,597.47 | 总市值（百万） | | 流通市值（百万） | | 721.07 | | | | | 11,417.46 | 总股本（万股） | | 总市值（百万） | 2,597.47 | | --- | --- | | 流通市值（百万） | 721.07 | | 总股本（万股） | 11,417.46 | | 流通股本（万股） | 3,169.55 | | 日均成交额（百万） | 48.83 | | 近一月 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][12][13] Core Insights - The company reported a significant reduction in losses for 2024, with a net loss of 240 million yuan compared to a loss of 3.21 billion yuan in 2023, indicating improved financial performance [10][12] - The company achieved a revenue of 166.7 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.1% year-on-year growth, and is projected to continue growing in the coming years [6][12] - The recovery in overseas capacity and an increase in passenger load factor were noted, although passenger kilometer revenue saw a decline [7][12] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company’s operating revenue was 166.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -240 million yuan, a significant improvement from -1.05 billion yuan in the previous year [6][10] - The company’s total passenger load factor reached 79.9%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [7] Cost and Expense Management - Operating costs for 2024 were 158.2 billion yuan, up 18.0% year-on-year, but seat kilometer costs decreased by 3.0% [8] - Financial expenses decreased by 6.9 billion yuan, with interest expenses down by 4.9 billion yuan [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 173.7 billion yuan, 183.1 billion yuan, and 191.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits expected to be 3.1 billion yuan, 7.3 billion yuan, and 11.5 billion yuan [11][12] - The company plans to increase its fleet size at a compound annual growth rate of 4.0% from 2024 to 2027 [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][14]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q4 2024 reached 35.384 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 13.7% [6][8]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 54.0%, with an operating profit of 4.268 billion RMB and a net profit of 3.974 billion RMB, resulting in a net profit margin of 11.2% [6][8]. - The company continues to enhance its core business through AI applications, with significant growth in online marketing services and e-commerce [8][9]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company achieved a monthly active user (MAU) count of 736 million and a daily active user (DAU) count of 401 million in Q4 2024, with daily user engagement increasing to an average of 125.6 minutes [8]. - The online marketing services revenue grew by 13.3% year-over-year to 20.6 billion RMB, driven by innovative marketing strategies and AI optimization [8][9]. Financial Analysis - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was 4.701 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 19.1% [8]. - The company’s revenue projections for FY2025-2027 are 141.7 billion RMB, 155.5 billion RMB, and 169.3 billion RMB, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 20.2 billion RMB, 22.8 billion RMB, and 25.7 billion RMB [11][14]. Business Segments - The live streaming revenue for Q4 2024 was 9.8 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year decline of 2.0% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.4% [9]. - E-commerce GMV for Q4 2024 reached 462.1 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 14.4% [9]. AI Integration - The company has accelerated its AI commercialization process, with the launch of the "Keling AI" version 1.6, enhancing content generation and user engagement [9][10]. - Daily consumption of AI-generated marketing materials exceeded 30 million RMB in Q4 2024, indicating strong demand for AI-driven solutions [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 28.66 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.24 billion RMB, up 36.9% year-on-year. The net profit margin was 21.8%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points compared to the previous year, and the gross profit margin was 28.1%, up 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [4][6]. - The revenue growth was driven by effective customer demand expansion, recovery in domestic production capacity utilization, and enhanced production efficiency in overseas facilities [6][9]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 31.72 billion RMB, 35.04 billion RMB, and 38.89 billion RMB in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.64 billion RMB, 7.38 billion RMB, and 8.33 billion RMB [8][9]. Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue breakdown by category: Sports category revenue was 19.80 billion RMB (up 9.8%, 69.1% share), Leisure category revenue was 7.21 billion RMB (up 27.1%, 25.1% share), Underwear category revenue was 1.44 billion RMB (up 34.6%, 5.0% share), and Other knitted products revenue was 0.22 billion RMB (up 10.9%, 0.8% share) [6]. - The revenue by region showed that Europe contributed 5.19 billion RMB (up 3.2%, 18.1% share), the US contributed 4.61 billion RMB (up 18.9%, 16.1% share), Japan contributed 4.83 billion RMB (up 31.5%, 16.9% share), Other markets contributed 5.97 billion RMB (up 13.4%, 20.8% share), and the domestic market contributed 8.06 billion RMB (up 13.2%, 28.1% share) [6]. Capacity and Efficiency - The company has enhanced its production capacity through the completion of a new garment factory in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, which is expected to employ around 6,000 workers. Additionally, a new fabric production capacity of 200 tons per day is being established in Vietnam [9]. - The overall efficiency of overseas factories has improved, contributing to a significant increase in profit margins due to higher capacity utilization and effective cost control [6][9]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to maintain a stable growth trajectory with expected revenue growth rates of 15% in 2024, followed by 11%, 10%, and 11% in the subsequent years [8]. - The projected net profit growth rates are 37% for 2024, followed by 6%, 11%, and 13% in the following years [8].