Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity outlook is influenced by the upcoming quarter-end period from September 22 to September 26, with the current 7-day reverse repo balance at 18,268 billion yuan, significantly higher than the average of 6,382 billion yuan over the past four years, creating some pressure on liquidity [1][10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced on September 19 that it would adjust the 14-day reverse repo operations to a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding, which aligns with the monetary policy framework established on June 19, 2024, indicating a proactive stance to support liquidity during the quarter-end [1][10] - The report suggests that the recent press conference by the State Council did not lead to any significant changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance that is expected to continue to support the bond market [2][11] Group 2 - The report forecasts that by September 28, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds will reach 19,838 billion yuan, with progress at 99.19%, while new general bonds and special bonds are expected to reach 6,618 billion yuan and 36,613 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong issuance activity [3][39] - In the secondary market, the dynamic implied tax rates for local government bonds are above 3%, with the 10-year bonds showing a slight decline to just above 3%, suggesting that new bonds still have arbitrage opportunities and safety margins [4][16] - The report highlights that since September, there has been a persistent arbitrage opportunity between primary and secondary markets for bonds with maturities of 7 years and above, with a spread of 2-4 basis points, indicating potential investment opportunities [4][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [7]. Core Insights - The listing process for domestic GPU companies, represented by Muxi Co. and Moer Thread, is accelerating, marking a significant capital leap for the domestic GPU industry. This is expected to enhance the technological capabilities and competitiveness of domestic GPU products, narrowing the gap with international standards [2][3]. - Muxi Co. has a substantial order backlog of 1.43 billion yuan as of September 5, 2025, primarily from existing clients and new large orders, indicating strong demand for its products [3]. - Moer Thread's KUAE 2 product supports high-efficiency AI model training and is currently in the customer customization phase, showcasing the company's commitment to advancing its technology [4]. Summary by Sections Muxi Co. - Muxi Co. has successfully passed the second round of inquiries, with a significant reduction in the number of questions from 14 to 3, indicating a smoother path to listing [2]. - The company is actively expanding its client base among internet companies and operators, with expectations to secure its first order by the end of 2025 [3]. - The C600 chip has successfully completed initial testing and is expected to enter risk production by the end of 2025, complementing the existing C500 series [3]. Moer Thread - Moer Thread's KUAE 2 is designed for high-performance AI applications and is currently in the customization stage for clients, with plans for standardized sales in the future [4]. - The company emphasizes collaboration with domestic foundries to achieve products that meet international flagship standards, indicating a focus on quality and competitiveness [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that as Muxi Co. accelerates its IPO process, related companies in the supply chain are likely to benefit significantly. The trend of domestic computing power is expected to solidify, with specific companies recommended for attention, including Chipone Technology, SMIC, and Hua Hong Semiconductor [8].

通信行业点评 姚院士在浦江论坛对量子提出了怎样的期待？ 2025 年 09 月 23 日 ➢ 2025 年 9 月 21 日浦江创新论坛上，姚院士就量子计算+A 开展演讲，认 为两者可"相互赋能"。"将量子与 AI 这两项颠覆性技术结合，或许能推动人类 突破现有知识极限，实现系统能力的跃升。"在姚期智院士看来，二者的融合不是 简单叠加，而是相互赋能的"化学反应"。大会同时宣布成立上海量子人工智能联 合体、上海量子科技装备产业创新联盟，发布上海量子计算十大应用场景，标志 上海量子科技与产业发展迈入崭新发展阶段。 ➢ 我国 AI 量子：基础扎实潜力无限。大会上指出，当前我国在量子纠错、AI 赋能量子等领域紧跟国际前沿，最新研究进展在部分方向上已经具备了"并跑"， 甚至局部"领跑"的可能。中国科学院院士俞大鹏指出，中国在量子计算领域已 取得显著突破。在上海，复旦大学成功研制出中性原子量子计算系统，制定高效 并行量子计算指令集；开发 ai+量子调控方案，实现了大规模原子系统的自动校 准、优化，为量子计算增效提速；自研物镜的性能也已支撑万比特级中性原子量 子计算；近期在量子优化算法上又取得新突破，大幅提升 NP 难问题 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on BorgWarner, highlighting its leadership in the turbocharging sector and its strategic transformation towards electric vehicles [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the historical development and strategic transformation of BorgWarner, showcasing its successful mergers and acquisitions, robust R&D investment, and global operational footprint [2][9]. - It identifies the shift in the automotive industry towards electric vehicles, presenting a significant opportunity for Chinese automotive suppliers to learn from global leaders like BorgWarner [2][3]. Summary by Sections Historical Overview - BorgWarner has evolved from a mechanical transmission company established in 1880 to a global leader in automotive components, with a focus on turbocharging and electric vehicle technologies [9][42]. - The company has strategically expanded through numerous acquisitions, enhancing its capabilities in both traditional and electric powertrain components [9][42]. Success Factors - The report attributes BorgWarner's success to its strong management, commitment to R&D, and a well-established global presence, with R&D expenses projected to exceed $740 million in 2024, maintaining a rate of around 5% [7][9]. - BorgWarner's proactive approach to mergers and acquisitions has allowed it to enter new markets and expand its product offerings effectively [7][9]. Industry Context - The report discusses the competitive landscape of the automotive parts industry, noting that German and Japanese suppliers dominate, while Chinese suppliers have significant growth potential [3][27]. - It highlights the transition from traditional fuel vehicles to electric vehicles, indicating that this shift presents a historical opportunity for domestic suppliers to enhance their market positions [2][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth for BorgWarner as it capitalizes on the electric vehicle trend, with a focus on developing advanced technologies such as electric drive modules and battery systems [9][42]. - It suggests that the integration of AI and robotics into the automotive supply chain will further enhance the competitive edge of companies like BorgWarner [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price on September 19, 2025 [6]. Core Views - The company has completed the acquisition of Peak Company, which holds a significant stake in the Ngualla rare earth project, expected to commence production in 2027. The acquisition price was adjusted to AUD 195 million (approximately RMB 920 million) due to rising rare earth prices [1][2]. - The Ngualla rare earth mine is one of the largest and highest-grade deposits globally, with a resource estimate of 214 million tons at an average grade of 2.15%, translating to 4.61 million tons of REO [2]. - The mine is projected to have a lifespan of 24 years, with an average annual production of 16,200 tons of REO and a total capital expenditure of USD 287 million. The estimated annual operating cost is USD 76.7 million, resulting in a unit cost of USD 4,735 per ton of REO [3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.027 billion, RMB 1.247 billion, and RMB 1.534 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 39, 32, and 26 times [4][5]. - Revenue projections indicate a significant recovery, with expected revenues of RMB 16.535 billion in 2025, RMB 19.857 billion in 2026, and RMB 21.746 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 45.4%, 20.1%, and 9.5% respectively [5][9]. - The report highlights a potential increase in profitability due to the anticipated rise in rare earth prices and the successful integration of the Ngualla project into the company's operations [4].

Group 1 - The report discusses the need to hold bonds during the upcoming National Day holiday, emphasizing that capital gains are limited unless certain conditions are met, such as a drop in bond yields to attractive levels and improved market sentiment [1][6][34] - It highlights that the current 10-year government bond yield is around 1.8%, with potential for both upward and downward movement, but the expectation for bond profit is weak [1][6][34] - The report suggests that short-term bond strategies focusing on 1Y deposits, 1-2Y credit sinking, and 2-3Y high-grade credit are advisable, while caution is advised for 5Y and longer credits due to limited capital gain potential [2][7][35] Group 2 - The yield curve is currently steep, particularly in the medium to long-term segments, with short-term bonds expected to be more resilient against declines [2][7][35] - The report recommends maintaining a slightly lower duration in bond portfolios and suggests that investors wait for further adjustments before seeking rebound opportunities [2][7][36] - It emphasizes the importance of flexibility in portfolio management due to the weak market environment, advocating for a barbell strategy focusing on short-term deposits and higher-yielding credits [2][7][36] Group 3 - The report identifies specific bonds to focus on, including 7Y and 10Y government bonds, and suggests monitoring the liquidity of certain bonds for potential trading opportunities [3][8][9] - It notes that the current basis level for the TL2512 futures contract is relatively low, indicating that futures prices are cheaper compared to cash bonds [3][11] - The report provides a weekly review of bond market performance, indicating that long-term rates have shown weakness while mid-term rates performed slightly better [12][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%, which was in line with market expectations. After the policy was implemented, the interest rate market showed a slight upward trend. The 10-year US Treasury bond rate is expected to rise slightly and stabilize within the new range of 4.06-4.16%. The market will then re - evaluate the next policy adjustment based on the core PCE at the end of September and the unemployment rate at the beginning of October [3][4]. - Global stock markets had different performances during the "interest rate cut week." US stocks led the rise and hit a record high, while the Asia - Pacific stock markets followed the upward trend and the European markets were under pressure. Different types of commodities and foreign exchange also showed significant structural differentiation [5][21][23]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic and Interest Rate Review 1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Review - **Employment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US this week was 231,000, lower than the expected 241,000 and the previous revised value of 264,000, indicating that the overall lay - off level in the US remains low [1][10]. - **Business Index**: In August, retail sales grew steadily, with the month - on - month growth of retail sales at 0.6% and core retail sales at 0.7%, both higher than expected. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels, the largest decline in nearly three months. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in September reached its highest level since January, and most indicators pointed to economic recovery [2][11]. - **Policy**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% to ease labor market pressure. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in 2025 [3][12]. 1.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review - **US**: During the week from September 12 to September 19, 2025, US Treasury yields rose across the board. The yields of 2 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year US Treasury bonds increased by 1bp, 4bp, 5bp, 7bp, 8bp, 6bp, and 7bp respectively. The 20 - year US Treasury bond auction had strong market demand [4][13][15]. - **Europe and Japan**: Japanese government bond yields rose, and German government bond yields reached a two - week high. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Japanese government bond rates increased by 2.3bp, 1.4bp, and 0.2bp respectively. The 10 - year German government bond rate increased by 3bp to 2.73% [20]. 2. Other Major Asset Reviews - **Equity**: Global stock markets entered the "interest rate cut week." US stocks led the rise and hit a record high. The Nasdaq index rose 2.21%. The South Korean stock market rose for seven consecutive days, hitting a new annual high. However, the Russian stock market continued its downward trend, and the stock markets of China, the UK, and Germany remained relatively stable [21]. - **Commodities**: Black and chemical products had significant increases, while agricultural products and some industrial metals were under pressure. Precious metals remained relatively stable, and digital assets such as Bitcoin slightly declined [22]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the stability of the UK and Japan's policies led to intensified structural differentiation in the foreign exchange market. The Russian ruble strengthened significantly, the US dollar index slightly declined, and the euro and Swiss franc slightly appreciated. On the other hand, the British pound, Japanese yen, and South Korean won depreciated against the Chinese yuan [23]. 3. Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts to show the changes in bond interest rates, stock index returns, commodity prices, and foreign exchange rates of major global economies this week, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [30][32][35][40][47][51].

Group 1 - The credit bond market has seen a predominance of upgrades in credit ratings, with 83 upgrades and only 9 downgrades as of September 19, 2025, indicating a continued reduction in credit risk [1][10][18] - The majority of upgrades have been by one level, with 95.18% of upgrades being one level up, and only one case of a four-level upgrade [10][13] - The most frequent upgrade was from AA+ to AAA, with 48 instances, reflecting a favorable credit environment [2][18] Group 2 - In the urban investment bond sector, the majority of rating adjustments have been upward, with 25 upgrades and only 5 downgrades, primarily concentrated in county-level platforms [21][25] - The downgrades in urban investment bonds were mainly located in Yunnan and Guizhou, with 4 out of 5 downgrades occurring in these regions [25][27] - The distribution of upgrades shows that regions with lighter debt burdens and better economic conditions, such as Hunan and Zhejiang, have seen significant upgrades [25][27] Group 3 - The industrial bond sector has also experienced a positive trend, with 52 upgrades and only 4 downgrades, indicating a significant improvement in the credit quality of companies, particularly in real estate and retail [28][30] - The majority of upgrades in the industrial sector were from state-owned enterprises, with 42 upgrades from local state-owned enterprises [28][30] - The downgrades were primarily in the non-bank financial, construction, and coal industries, suggesting sector-specific challenges [30][32] Group 4 - In the financial bond sector, there have been no downgrades, with all 6 rating adjustments being upgrades, primarily among city commercial banks [3][34] - The notable upgrades include HanKou Bank, which was upgraded from AA+ to AAA, reflecting improved creditworthiness [3][34][35] - The overall trend in financial bonds indicates a recognition of the credit quality of city commercial banks [3][34] Group 5 - The service consumption market and light industry are developing in tandem, with policies aimed at enhancing supply-demand compatibility and expanding service consumption [36][50] - The government is focusing on improving service quality and expanding the scale of service consumption, particularly in areas like dining and accommodation [50][41] - The light industry is expected to play a significant role in stabilizing growth and promoting consumption, with initiatives to support high-quality supply [36][50]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Three-Dimensional Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses three dimensions: liquidity, divergence, and prosperity to judge market trends[8] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the current liquidity trend, market divergence, and prosperity level - It uses technical indicators to assess the market status, such as the overbought condition of the CSI 300 index[8] - The model's historical performance is visualized to validate its effectiveness[17] - **Model Evaluation**: The model indicates a downward trend in a high turnover market, suggesting a low probability of short-term upward movement[8] Model Name: ETF Hot Trend Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy selects ETFs based on their price trends and market attention[28] - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify ETFs with both highest and lowest price trends using K-line highest and lowest price shapes - Construct support and resistance factors based on the relative steepness of the regression coefficients of the highest and lowest prices over the past 20 days - Select the top 10 ETFs with the highest turnover rate in the past 5 and 20 days to form a risk parity portfolio[28] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy includes ETFs from semiconductor, non-ferrous metals, 5G communication, battery industries, and growth styles[29] Model Name: Capital Flow Resonance Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy monitors the resonance of margin trading and large order funds to select favored industries[32] - **Model Construction Process**: - Define the margin trading capital factor as the net buying of financing minus the net selling of securities lending, neutralized by the Barra market value factor - Define the active large order capital factor as the net inflow of the industry, neutralized by the time series of trading volume over the past year - Combine the two factors to construct the strategy, excluding extreme industries and large financial sectors to improve stability[35] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has shown stable positive excess returns since 2018, with an annualized excess return of 13.5% and an IR of 1.7[35] Model Backtesting Results - **Three-Dimensional Timing Model**: Historical performance shows a consistent downward trend in high turnover markets[17] - **ETF Hot Trend Strategy**: The strategy has achieved cumulative excess returns over the CSI 300 index this year[30] - **Capital Flow Resonance Strategy**: The strategy recorded a negative excess return last week, with an absolute return of -2.4% and an excess return of -2.0% relative to the industry equal weight[35] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Beta Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market returns[40] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the beta coefficient of each stock based on its historical returns relative to the market index - Form portfolios of high and low beta stocks to compare their performance[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: High beta stocks significantly outperformed low beta stocks, recording a positive return of 2.19% last week[40] Factor Name: Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the growth potential of stocks based on their earnings and revenue growth[40] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the growth rate of earnings and revenue for each stock - Form portfolios of high and low growth stocks to compare their performance[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: Growth stocks continued to outperform value stocks, with the growth factor achieving a return of 1.51% last week[40] Factor Backtesting Results - **Beta Factor**: - Year-to-date: 26.61% - Last month: 2.39% - Last week: 2.19%[41] - **Growth Factor**: - Year-to-date: -0.44% - Last month: 4.74% - Last week: 1.51%[41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The computer industry is experiencing pressure on IT spending from government and enterprise clients due to macroeconomic factors, but a new growth trend driven by the AI technology revolution is emerging. The domestic computing power sector is showing significant turning points, and financial technology innovation is becoming an important industry trend [3][10]. - Key areas of focus include domestic AI computing demand, AI terminals and applications, beneficiaries of financial technology innovation, and high-growth segments within the industry [3][10]. Market Review - During the week of September 15-19, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.44%, while the small and medium-sized board index rose by 1.99%, and the ChiNext index increased by 2.34%. The computer sector (CITIC) saw a slight increase of 0.16% [19]. - The top five gainers in the sector were Information Development (+25.71%), Kaipu Cloud (+16.08%), Huijin Co. (+13.83%), Neusoft Group (+10.57%), and Suoling Co. (+9.07%). The top five decliners were *ST Dongtong (-65.05%), Zhongke Jincai (-10.53%), Anbotong (-9.87%), Feilixin (-9.36%), and Langxin Group (-9.01%) [19][24]. Company Dynamics - Guoneng Rixin plans to invest 42.53 million yuan to acquire a 25% stake in Tibet Dongrun Digital Energy Co., which has recently completed its business registration changes [15]. - Softcom Power has announced a share reduction plan by its controlling shareholder, intending to reduce holdings by up to 19.06 million shares, representing no more than 2% of the total share capital [16]. Weekly Insights - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential, including Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Inspur Information, and China Great Wall in the AI computing demand segment. In AI terminals and applications, companies like Kingsoft Office, Zhuoyi Information, and Keda Xunfei are highlighted. Beneficiaries of financial technology innovation include Zhongke Jincai, Jingbeifang, and Yuxin Technology [3][10].