Industry Overview - The textile and apparel industry is divided into two main segments: **processing and manufacturing** (focused on export markets, with core elements being equipment, technology, cost, and scale) and **brand retail** (focused on domestic markets, with core elements being design, brand, channels, and supply chain) [6] - The industry is transitioning from a **manufacturing-driven model** to a **brand-retail-driven model**, with the latter generally offering higher profitability [61] Processing and Manufacturing Segment - **Textile fibers** are categorized into natural fibers (e.g., cotton, wool) and chemical fibers (e.g., polyester, nylon) [11][15] - Key manufacturing processes include **weaving**, **knitting**, and **non-woven fabric production** [16] - Major companies in this segment include **Weiqiao Textile**, **Huafang Textile**, and **Luthai Textile**, which specialize in cotton spinning, dyeing, and integrated production [19][20] - The segment is characterized by **overcapacity**, with long-term supply exceeding demand, and production is heavily influenced by global GDP and import market dynamics [32][28] Brand Retail Segment - The **domestic retail market** is driven by factors such as **replacement demand** (64%), **relocation purchases** (22%), and **wedding-related purchases** (8%) [53][54] - Companies are shifting from **traditional wholesale models** to **direct retail models**, with a focus on **channel control** and **brand diversification** [49][47] - Key performance indicators include **average selling price (ASP)**, **store expansion**, **same-store sales growth**, and **inventory turnover** [58] Valuation and Investment Strategy - Valuation methods include **PE**, **PEG**, **PB**, **PS**, **DCF**, and **sum-of-the-parts (SOTP)**, with different methods suited to different types of companies (e.g., PE for stable profit companies, PB for asset-heavy manufacturers) [60] - The **processing and manufacturing segment** is recommended for companies with **low valuations**, **potential earnings surprises**, and **catalysts** such as **Weixing股份**, **Hangmin股份**, and **Jiangnan High Fiber** [65] - The **brand retail segment** is recommended for **stable performers** like **Septwolves** and **Saint Angelo**, with **Meibang Apparel** noted for potential operational improvements [65] Market Dynamics - China's textile and apparel exports account for **35% of global exports**, with significant market shares in the EU (42%), the US (37%), and Japan (84%) [27] - Despite a weakening **price advantage**, China maintains strong competitiveness due to **ample production capacity** and **comprehensive supply chain support** [30]

CITI Comm 房地产行业研究方法 中信证券研究部 陈聪 分布阿简介 -陈聪 ▷ 中信证券房地产行业首席分析师。 ▷ 剑桥大学城市规划硕士，南开大学金融学学士。 > 毕业后曾于戴德梁行从事物业整栋收购， 2007年初进入中信证券研究。 ▷ 2009年新财富房地产行业最佳分析师第二名。 > 2009年证券市场周刊"水晶球奖"房地产行业最佳分 析 师第一名。 GITI ( 199 2 目录 内 容 ▪ 第一章 估值方法和个股选择 行业生态和周期判断 ■ 第二章 CITISE 3 一、估值方法和个股选择 CITIGE 4 1.1倍值理论 相对金面的等式模型 融资性 企业报表上所反映的现金及 现金 愤务 银行存款。 非核心 非核心资产通常为企业非主 ✦ 营业务的资产，如长期股权 资产 优先股股权 投资、其他长期资产等。 期权 少数股权 企业价值是指公司核心资产 企业价值 运营产生的价值。 股东权益 企业的融资性债务（如银行借款、 金融负债、关联方资金占用等）， 包括短期与长期融资性债务；企业 的经营性负债（如应付往来敦项等） 不属于此范畴。 融资性债务的判断标准，是否承担 利息 • 债务净额 = 融资性债务 – ...

CITI Comm 电力行业研究方法 中信证券研究部 杨治山 中信远券：电力行业研究团队 ■ 杨治山 ▪ 中信证券：电力及公用事业首席分析师。 ▪ 复旦大学经济学硕士。97.6-04.8，南方证券研究所电力、煤炭行 业分析师，后期担任行业研究部经理，04.8-06.6，国信证券电力 行业首席分析师、研究联席主管；06.7加盟中信证券至今。 ▪ 证券从业13年，是迄今从业时间最长的电力及公用事业分析师。 ▪ 《新财富》杂志05～07年最佳分析师第二名，08、09年第一名。 ▪ 粤电力（000539）、漳泽电力（000767）独立董事。 ■ 吴 非 ■ 中信证券：电力行业高级分析师。 ▪ 上海交通大学热能工程、金融学双学位，上海财经大学金融学硕 士。01.7-02.7: 华北电科院助理工程师；04.11-06.6: 国信证券 电力行业分析师。06.6加盟中信证券研究部至今。 ▪ 《新财富》杂志05～07年最佳分析师第二名，08、09年第一名。 CITI COE 2 目录 ▪ 行业部分 ▪ 公司部分 ▪ 卖方报告阅读要点 ▪ 换个角度看电力 CITISE 3 行业部分 CITIGE 4 1、产品特点 ■ 同质性：产 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy showed moderate cooling in the first half of 2024, with GDP growth rate dropping from 3.4% in Q4 2023 to 1.4% in Q1 2024[2] - Private investment supported the economy, rebounding to a quarterly annualized rate of 4.4% in Q1 2024, offsetting declines in consumer spending and government expenditure[2] Inflation and Interest Rates - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose from 3.9% at the beginning of the year to over 4.7%, before stabilizing around 4.3%[1] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have fluctuated, with projections stabilizing around 1-2 cuts for the year following a decline in inflation in April and May[23] Consumer Spending Dynamics - Factors supporting consumer spending, such as income and savings, are expected to weaken, with the savings rate remaining low and consumer confidence declining since Q2 2024[4] - Retail and food service sales have shown a downward trend since December 2023, influenced by declining disposable income growth and the exhaustion of excess savings[82] Employment Trends - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate rising from 3.8% at the end of Q1 2024 to 4.1% by the end of Q2 2024[26] - Non-farm payroll growth has been revised down by 250,000 for the first five months of 2024, indicating a weaker employment landscape than previously reported[26] Investment Outlook - High interest rates are likely to continue suppressing manufacturing and construction investment demand, although knowledge-based investments may provide some offset[8] - The weak inventory replenishment cycle is expected to persist, further dragging down manufacturing performance[85] Housing Market Insights - The housing market is experiencing structural pressure due to high interest rates, with new home sales growth turning negative, which may impact residential investment going forward[100] - The recovery in new home sales is insufficient to compensate for the decline in existing home sales, maintaining overall pressure on the housing market[100]

Index Strategy Overview - The Global Multi-asset Balancing Allocation Index (GMBA) includes domestic stock indices, long-term interest rate bonds, commodity futures, as well as foreign stock indices, bond assets, and commodity futures[18] - The index achieves diversification through both country and strategy dispersion, with equal weights assigned to foreign and domestic strategy indices, and further equal weighting within domestic strategies (CMAM and CMABC)[22] - The index is rebalanced monthly, with weights of 50% for foreign strategy indices, 25% for CMAM, and 25% for CMABC[22] Performance Metrics - The global diversified balanced strategy index has an annualized return of 5.09% and an annualized volatility of 2.73% since its base date of January 5, 2015, with a maximum drawdown of -5.44%[3] - The index achieved an absolute return of 3.78% year-to-date as of June 30, 2024, with a maximum drawdown of -0.87% during the period[3] Risk Management - The foreign strategy index is constructed with multiple sub-strategies, with equal-weighted allocation to foreign assets each month, targeting a volatility of 4.5% and a leverage cap of 250%[10] - The index aims to reduce strategy resonance risk through country and strategy diversification[12] Accessibility - The GMBA index can be queried through the Wind terminal with the code GMBA.WI, and will be available on other financial terminals in the future[16]