行 业 研 究 2026 年 01 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -26% 0% 26% 53% 79% 106% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 通信 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《重视 AI 云 IAAS 稀缺性：AIDC 及 算力租赁—行业点评报告》-2026.1.27 《重视边际变化：卫星和国产 AI 链— 行业周报》-2026.1.25 《重视硅光和 CPO 链投资机会—行业 点评报告》-2026.1.21 重视通信涨价方向：AI 云 IAAS 和光纤 ——行业点评报告 蒋颖（分析师） jiangying@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523120003 亚马逊 AWS 宣布涨价，AI 云基础设施稀缺性或日益凸显 2026 年 1 月 23 日，全球云计算巨头亚马逊云科技宣布对其面向大模型训练的 EC2 机器学习容量块实施约 15%的价格上调，这是 AWS 长达约二十年首次打破。 "只降不涨"的定价传统。机器学习容量块是 AWS 为应对高性能 GPU 等稀缺 计算资源供需失衡所推出的定制化服务模式，用户可提前预订指定型号的 GPU 实例，确保 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [7]. Core Insights - The commercial vehicle industry is experiencing a robust recovery driven by domestic demand policies and a significant increase in heavy truck sales, with wholesale sales expected to exceed 1.144 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 27% [3]. - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks has reached a historical high, with sales in 2025 reaching 231,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 182% [4]. - The heavy truck export market is thriving, with exports reaching approximately 330,000 units in 2025, marking a record high and indicating a shift towards direct investment and localized operations in overseas markets [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In 2025, the domestic heavy truck wholesale sales reached 819,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 34.4% [3]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has expanded to include vehicles meeting National IV standards and below, boosting domestic demand [3]. Segment Analysis - The new energy heavy truck segment has seen explosive growth, with a monthly penetration rate exceeding 38% in December 2025 [4]. - Natural gas heavy trucks have also shown steady demand, with a significant recovery in the second half of 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of 138% in October [4]. Company Performance - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group maintained its position as the industry leader with annual sales of 305,000 units, a year-on-year increase of approximately 26.7% [5]. - Foton Motor achieved a remarkable year-on-year growth of 102.7%, with annual sales reaching 142,000 units, marking a doubling in sales [5]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies as beneficiaries of the industry's recovery, including China National Heavy Duty Truck A+H, Weichai Power, Foton Motor, and others [6].

Macro Economic Overview - The transaction volume and price of second-hand houses have both increased, indicating a recovery in the real estate market [6][29] - Construction activity has shown seasonal improvement, with cement dispatch rates and grinding machine operation rates higher than the same period in 2025 [3][4] - Industrial production has shown mixed results, with strong performance in chemicals and automotive steel tires, while coking has lagged [3][4] Food and Beverage Industry - The allocation ratio for food and beverage stocks has decreased to a new low of 6.1% in Q4 2025, down from 6.4% in Q3 2025, indicating a continued reduction in holdings by active equity funds [10][12] - The white liquor sector has seen a decrease in fund allocation, with the proportion of white liquor holdings falling from 3.2% in Q3 2025 to 2.9% in Q4 2025 [11] - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery in Q1 2026 due to the upcoming Spring Festival, which will drive demand for inventory replenishment [13][15] Communication Industry - The announcement by Amazon AWS to raise prices for machine learning capacity blocks by approximately 15% highlights the increasing scarcity of AI cloud infrastructure [19][22] - The investment of $2 billion by NVIDIA in CoreWeave underscores the strong demand for AI computing resources [20][22] - The release of Alibaba's Qwen3-Max-Thinking model indicates the growing capabilities of domestic AI models, which may significantly boost demand for AI cloud infrastructure [21][22] Coal Mining Industry - Coal prices have improved in Q4 2025, with thermal coal prices averaging 824.9 RMB/ton, up 8% quarter-on-quarter, and coking coal prices averaging 1725.7 RMB/ton, up 10% [23][24] - The coal industry is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound as supply-side policies restrict production and demand increases during the heating season [25][26] Real Estate and Construction Industry - Public funds have reduced their allocation to the real estate sector to 0.43% in Q4 2025, the lowest since 2021, reflecting a cautious outlook on the sector [27][28] - Recent policy changes, including tax reductions on second-hand housing and relaxed purchase restrictions, indicate a supportive stance towards stabilizing the real estate market [30][29] Company-Specific Insights - IFBH has initiated systematic adjustments in product, management, and channel areas, leading to improved fundamentals and a maintained "buy" rating [30][31] - Ximai Foods is expected to see profit elasticity due to strong market demand during the Spring Festival and declining raw material costs, with a projected net profit increase of 31.5% in 2025 [35][38] - Jinchuang Group is positioned to benefit from the growing demand in the rail transit sector, with expected net profits of 6.02 billion RMB in 2025 [40][42]

Group 1: Industry Perspective on Institutional Research - The research highlights an increase in institutional research activity in the automotive, pharmaceutical, and communication sectors [3][4][12] - Weekly data shows a slight decline in total research counts across the A-share market, but the numbers are higher than the same period in 2025, indicating ongoing low research enthusiasm [13][20] - Monthly data for December 2025 indicates a decrease in total research counts compared to December 2024, with a total of 1,661 instances of research conducted [20][23] Group 2: Individual Stock Perspective on Institutional Research - Companies such as Taili Technology, Jiemai Technology, and Tianlu Technology received significant market attention, with high research counts in the past week [28][30] - In the last month, companies like Taihe New Materials, Huichuan Technology, and Chaojie Co., Ltd. also garnered considerable interest from institutional investors [33][34] - Taihe New Materials, positioned in the high-end chemical industry, has been frequently researched, with five instances of institutional research last week, focusing on its applications in commercial aerospace and computing centers [32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low position in terms of valuation and fundamentals, presenting significant layout value. The CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.8%, indicating a mild recovery trend. The policy focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption is becoming clearer, signaling a potential bottoming out of industry demand. The current valuation and policy bottom are resonating, gradually releasing pessimistic expectations and providing a safety margin for investment [7][35] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with resilient demand for consumer goods and a continuous upward trend in the snack sector. The mismatch in the timing of the Spring Festival is anticipated to lead to a concentrated release of stocking demand. The sector is expected to achieve rapid growth in Q1 2026 [7][35] Summary by Sections Fund Positioning - In Q4 2025, the allocation ratio for food and beverage in the overall market funds dropped to a new low of 6.1%, down from 6.4% in Q3 2025. The allocation ratio for active equity funds was 4.0%, slightly down from 4.1% in the previous quarter, indicating a continued reduction in food and beverage allocations by active equity funds [4][13] - The overall number of shares held by funds in the food and beverage sector decreased in Q4 2025, with a general trend of reduced allocation to food and beverage companies. Notably, companies like Yurun Agriculture, Yili, and West Wheat Food saw an increase in market value held by funds, while companies like Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai experienced significant decreases [6][29][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment: first, consider companies like Shede Liquor that have undergone sufficient adjustments and possess high elasticity; second, allocate to industry leaders such as Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have strong performance stability and risk resistance. The Spring Festival stocking is expected to be a core catalyst for the sector's performance [7][34] - Specific investment opportunities are highlighted in three sub-sectors: raw milk/dairy products, the snack sector, and the catering supply chain. Companies such as Wei Long, Gan Yuan Food, Yan Jin Pu Zi, West Wheat Food, and Yili are identified as key investment targets, with beneficiaries including Yurun Agriculture, Mengniu Dairy, Anjixin Food, and Guoquan [7][38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The company has a solid foundation in the rail transit sector, having participated deeply in the localization of high-speed rail supporting products and is a leading provider of one-stop services in the rail transit vehicle supporting field [1][10] - The rail transit industry is entering a new phase of rapid development, with promising prospects for the vehicle supporting market driven by national strategic planning and the demand for new and upgraded rail vehicles [2][32] - The company is positioned as a benchmark in the private sector of the rail transit industry, with its heavy machinery manufacturing segment revitalizing and contributing to sustained performance growth [3][61] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply engaged in the rail transit field for over 30 years, evolving from producing small components for traditional trains to becoming a leading supplier of high-speed rail supporting products [10][11] - Its product range includes safety systems, intelligent control systems, and maintenance support systems, covering a wide array of rail transit needs [11][12] Industry Outlook - The high-speed rail market in China is expected to maintain stable growth, with new line openings and the replacement of older trains driving demand for vehicle supporting products [2][32] - The demand for new high-speed trains is projected to remain above 200 units annually, supported by national planning and the need for upgrades and maintenance of existing fleets [32][34] Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 602 million, 656 million, and 707 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.9, 18.3, and 17.0 [1][4] - Revenue is expected to grow from 3.697 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.413 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.1% [4][19] Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from a one-stop service capability, which enhances its competitive edge in the market by simplifying client management and improving supply chain efficiency [3][45] - It has established stable partnerships with major rail transit manufacturers, ensuring a consistent demand for its products and services [48][50] Innovation and Development - The company is committed to continuous innovation, having developed new products such as the intelligent port wheel grabber, which significantly improves operational efficiency [61][63] - It has a strong focus on digital management and internal control optimization, which enhances operational resilience and quality [54][60]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival in mid-February 2026 is expected to boost demand for leisure food products, as the low performance base in Q1 2026 will catalyze strong performance in the sector. The emphasis on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption by policies will further support this trend. Leading snack companies are expected to benefit from category and channel changes, with net profit margins likely to improve due to their large product strategies and cost advantages [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The leisure food sector is projected to experience a strong performance in Q1 2026 due to the Spring Festival, which is a peak consumption period for food and beverages. The demand for stocking up on products is expected to be released, leading to significant sales growth for snack companies [3] Company Focus - The upcoming IPO of Mingming Hen Mang Group is anticipated to reshape traditional retail with its bulk purchasing model, enhancing operational efficiency and rapid store expansion through a modern franchise system. This positive cycle in its business model is expected to create a strong competitive advantage [4] Recommended Stocks - **Weilong Delicious**: Expected to maintain rapid growth with new flavors in konjac products, and the potential for recovery in noodle products. The overseas market also presents significant opportunities [5] - **Ganyuan Food**: Anticipated recovery from operational difficulties, with positive trends across channels and significant elasticity in Q1 2026 due to the low base from H1 2025 [5] - **Yanjinpuzi**: Strong potential in sesame konjac products, with steady brand enhancement and ongoing expansion of distribution networks, leading to expected stable performance [5] - **Wancheng Group**: The IPO of Mingming Hen Mang is expected to increase market attention, with stable store expansion and potential for profit improvement due to scale effects [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing scarcity of AI cloud infrastructure, as evidenced by Amazon AWS's first price increase in 20 years for its EC2 machine learning capacity blocks, which rose by approximately 15% [4] - NVIDIA's investment of $2 billion in CoreWeave aims to enhance AI computing capacity, further validating the high demand for AI cloud infrastructure [5] - Alibaba's launch of the Qwen3-Max-Thinking model, with over 1 trillion parameters and 36 trillion tokens of pre-training data, positions it as one of the strongest domestic AI models, likely driving demand for AI cloud infrastructure [6] Summary by Sections AI Public Cloud - Beneficiaries include Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu [7] AIDC Data Centers - Recommended stocks: Dawi Technology, New Idea Network Group, Aofei Data, Guanghuan New Network, Runze Technology - Beneficiaries include Century Interconnect, Global Data, Wangsu Science and Technology, Dongyangguang, Dataport, and Kehua Data [7] Computing Power Leasing - Beneficiaries include Hongjing Technology, Xiechuang Data, Capital Online, Runjian Shares, Yunsai Zhili, Zhiwei Intelligent, and Hangjin Technology [7] AIDC Liquid Cooling & Power Supply - Recommended stock: Yingweike - Beneficiaries include Shenling Environment, Yinlun Shares, Tongfei Shares, Gaolan Shares, Zhongheng Electric, Kehua Data, Kete Power, and Weichai Heavy Industry [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [4] Core Views - The company has initiated systematic adjustments in core areas such as products, management, and channels since Q4 2025, alongside a share buyback plan that enhances operational confidence, thereby strengthening the fundamental logic [4] - Due to intensified industry competition, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected net profits of $0.33 million (down $0.05 million), $0.48 million (down $0.07 million), and $0.61 million (down $0.10 million) respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 0.3%, 43.0%, and 27.9% [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $186 million, $249 million, and $311 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.8%, 34.1%, and 24.6% respectively [9] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 18.7, 13.1, and 10.2 times [9] - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 32.0% for 2025 and a net margin of 18.0% [9] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The main brand, If Coconut Water, is performing better than the industry and competitors due to its natural quality and first-mover advantage, expected to continue leading the market in 2026 [5] - The secondary brand, Inno Coco, faced sales pressure but has completed major adjustments and expanded partnerships, with new high-value electrolyte beverage products expected to drive growth in 2026 [5] Strategic Partnerships and Expansion - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed with COFCO's subsidiary, which will enhance the company's domestic market strategy by leveraging COFCO's extensive distribution network, facilitating nationwide product coverage [6] - The establishment of the If brand's China headquarters in Shanghai aims to improve local operations and management efficiency, addressing industry challenges such as price disorder and channel management [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The company has initiated systematic adjustments in core areas such as products, management, and channels since Q4 2025, alongside a share buyback plan that enhances operational confidence. The fundamental logic has been strengthened, although profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards due to increased industry competition. Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at $0.33 billion (-$0.05), $0.48 billion (-$0.07), and $0.61 billion (-$0.10), representing year-on-year growth of 0.3%, 43.0%, and 27.9% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 18.7, 13.1, and 10.2 for the respective years [4] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The coconut water industry is experiencing intensified competition in 2025. The main brand, If Coconut Water, is performing better than the industry and competitors due to its natural quality and first-mover advantage, and is expected to continue leading the market in 2026. The secondary brand, Inno Coco, faced sales pressure throughout the year but has completed major adjustments and expanded partnerships, with new high-value electrolyte beverage products expected to drive growth in 2026, creating a second growth curve for the company [5] Strategic Partnerships - In September 2025, the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with COFCO's subsidiary, COFCO Mingzhuanghui, marking a significant acceleration in its domestic market strategy. This partnership leverages COFCO Mingzhuanghui's extensive network of over one million terminals and diverse channel resources to help the company overcome regional barriers and achieve nationwide product coverage, laying a solid foundation for high growth and regional expansion. Additionally, the collaboration enhances brand image through the endorsement of a state-owned enterprise, improving national exposure and consumer recognition [6] Operational Efficiency - In November 2025, the company established its China headquarters in the Hongqiao International Central Business District through a partnership with Shanghai Xihongqiao Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd. This move will facilitate the building of a core team in Shanghai, including sales, marketing, and channel management personnel, aimed at addressing industry challenges such as channel disorder and price inconsistencies, thereby enhancing localized management and response efficiency [7] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2023A is $87 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.0%. For 2024A, revenue is expected to reach $158 million, reflecting a growth of 80.3%. The estimates for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are $186 million, $249 million, and $311 million respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 17.8%, 34.1%, and 24.6%. The net profit for 2023A is projected at $17 million, with a growth of 0.0%, and is expected to reach $33 million in 2024A, maintaining the same level in 2025E, before increasing to $48 million and $61 million in 2026E and 2027E respectively, with growth rates of 43.0% and 27.9% [9]