Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. inflation rate for December 2025 was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, slightly below expectations [5][6] - Energy inflation has significantly decreased, with December energy prices rising by only 2.3% year-on-year, down 1.9 percentage points from November [7] - The overall inflation level is expected to continue declining due to high base effects in early 2025, although potential rebound pressures may arise from fiscal policies and economic support measures [8][9] Group 2: Real Estate and Construction Sector - Poly Developments (600048.SH) has adjusted its headquarters structure to enhance management efficiency, maintaining its leading position in the industry [26][30] - The company reported a total sales amount of 121.6 billion yuan in December 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%, but it remains the top seller in the industry [28] - The company’s land acquisition in major cities accounted for over 85% of its total, with a total land acquisition amount of 771.3 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 13.0% year-on-year increase [29] Group 3: Media and Entertainment Sector - Xindong Company (02400.HK) saw its game "Heart Town" achieve over 500 million downloads shortly after its international launch, indicating strong performance and potential for future revenue growth [32][33] - The company plans to leverage partnerships with well-known IPs to enhance user engagement and revenue streams, particularly during peak seasons [32][34] Group 4: Retail Sector - Chao Hong Ji (002345.SZ) anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth of 125% to 175%, driven by brand enhancement and market expansion [36][37] - The company has successfully expanded its store network, reaching a total of 1,668 stores by the end of 2025, with a notable increase in new store openings [37]

Group 1: Export Performance - In December, China's exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in the previous month[2] - December exports in absolute terms rose by 8.3% month-on-month, exceeding the 7.6% growth of December 2024[3] - The strong demand for AI-related products significantly contributed to the rebound in external demand, with Vietnam's exports to the U.S. and total exports showing seasonal rebounds[3][13] Group 2: AI Industry Impact - The AI industry is driving a shift in export contributions from quantity to price, with electronic products and automotive exports showing significant improvement[5][25] - In December, the export of electronic products, including mobile phones, achieved a year-on-year growth of 10.6%, a substantial recovery from a decline of 12.6% previously[25] - The demand for AI products is resilient, with Vietnam's exports of computers and electronic components contributing 9.6 percentage points to total exports in December[20] Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, exports are expected to grow cautiously, with a projected year-on-year increase of 2% to 4%, primarily supported by AI industry demand and related regional needs[5][35] - High-frequency data indicates a potential decline in exports, with a year-on-year decrease of around 2% noted for the first half of January[5][35] - Risks include unexpected declines in external demand and policy changes that could impact export performance[38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector, highlighting a favorable economic environment and a balanced investment strategy [4][8] - The adjustment of the financing margin ratio by the China Securities Regulatory Commission is expected to have limited impact on existing financing businesses, as the current leverage levels in credit accounts are not at their maximum [5][6] - The report anticipates continued growth in the brokerage sector's return on equity (ROE), driven by factors such as the migration of household deposits and the reconstruction of stock market mechanisms [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing a recovery, with a projected increase in investment opportunities [4] - The financing scale in the market is currently at 2.67 trillion, representing 2.58% of the market's circulating value, which is below historical highs, indicating room for growth [7] Regulatory Changes - The recent increase in the financing margin ratio to 100% is limited to new financing contracts, with existing contracts remaining unaffected [5] - The regulatory environment is signaling a counter-cyclical adjustment, which is expected to stabilize the financing business [6] Performance Expectations - The brokerage sector's net income from margin trading is estimated to contribute approximately 10% to overall brokerage revenue in 2025 [7] - There is a notable expectation gap regarding the sustainability of brokerage performance and the impact of funding pressures, suggesting potential for growth in the sector [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in capital interest rates in December may be for two reasons: preparing for an interest - rate cut or being related to the Vanke incident [3][5] - The decline in capital interest rates does not necessarily indicate an upcoming interest - rate cut, considering the recent equity market fluctuations and the lessons of 2015 [4] - The target range for the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5% [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Event Review - Since December, the capital interest rate has declined first and then rebounded. The overnight interest rate DR001 dropped from 1.3 - 1.5% to below 1.3% (minimum 1.24%), and then rose to 1.33% on January 12 [2][3] 3.2 Reasons for the Decline in Capital Interest Rates in December 3.2.1 Preparing for an Interest - Rate Cut - Similar to the situation in late April 2025 when the capital interest rate declined before the central bank cut interest rates on May 7, 2025. However, the State Council's executive meeting on January 9 focused on structural policies rather than overall interest - rate cuts [3] - Considering the fluctuations in the equity market and the negative effects of excessive monetary loosening, the decline in capital interest rates does not necessarily mean an interest - rate cut [4] 3.2.2 Related to the Vanke Incident - The Vanke incident started to ferment at the end of November, and the capital interest rate began to decline. It further declined in mid - December. In previous major credit risk events (the Baoshang incident in 2019, the Yongmei incident in 2020, and the Vanke incident in 2025), the capital interest rate declined significantly. The central bank may aim to protect liquidity and prevent risk contagion [5] - The decline in capital interest rates in the Baoshang incident lasted for 1.5 months, in the Yongmei incident for 2 months. The current decline has lasted for 1.5 months, so it is reasonable for the interest rate to return to the previous range (DR001 1.3 - 1.5%) in mid - January [5] 3.3 Bond Market Views 3.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - The falsification of the under - expected economic recovery, combined with possible loose credit and fiscal policies at the beginning of 2026, will accelerate the cyclical recovery [6] 3.3.2 Monetary Policy - If there is a loose monetary policy (such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest - rate cuts, bond purchases), it will be a chance for under - allocation, similar to the situation in 2025 [6] 3.3.3 Inflation - Inflation is rising. Attention should be paid to whether the PPI month - on - month growth can remain positive [6] 3.3.4 Capital Interest Rates - If the month - on - month inflation continues to rise, there is a possibility of capital tightening, and the yield of short - term bonds will also start to rise [6] 3.3.5 Real Estate - Real estate is not used as a means to stabilize growth this time. Similar to the situation in the US after 2008, real estate is a lagging indicator. It may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [6] 3.3.6 Bonds - The target range for the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5% [6]

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year in December 2025, meeting market expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, falling short of expectations[2] - Energy inflation saw a significant decline, with energy prices rising by only 2.3% year-on-year, down 1.9 percentage points from November[4] - Food prices increased by 3.1% year-on-year in December, up 0.5 percentage points from November, indicating a seasonal demand increase[4] Core Inflation Insights - Core CPI remained stable, with core goods' year-on-year growth at approximately 1.4%, and core services rising by about 3.03%[4][21] - The price of used cars decreased by 1.1% month-on-month, contributing to the overall stability in core inflation[21] - Housing costs increased by 3.2% year-on-year, reflecting a slight rebound in rental inflation[22] Future Inflation Outlook - Inflation levels may continue to decline due to high base effects in early 2025, but potential rebound pressures exist from fiscal policies and economic support measures[5][36] - The Federal Reserve may tolerate slightly higher inflation to support the economy and labor market, with expectations that inflation will not return to 2% by 2026[42] - Political challenges are emerging for the Federal Reserve, particularly with the upcoming leadership changes and increased scrutiny from the Trump administration[6][48] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential geopolitical tensions leading to unexpected inflation spikes and the possibility of a more severe economic downturn than anticipated[7][49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Insights - The company has adjusted its headquarters organizational structure to enhance management efficiency and effectiveness amid declining sales [6][9] - The company remains the industry leader in sales, with a strong focus on optimizing land reserves and maintaining open financing channels, resulting in a significant cost advantage [6][9] - Profit forecasts for the company are maintained, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 4.26 billion, 5.24 billion, and 6.41 billion respectively, translating to EPS of 0.36, 0.44, and 0.54 [6][10] Sales Performance - In December 2025, the company achieved a signed sales amount of 12.16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%, with a total annual sales amount of 253.03 billion, down 21.7% [7] - The company maintained its leading position in sales, with an average sales price of 20,483 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [7] Land Acquisition - The company acquired 10 plots of land in major cities such as Shanghai and Guangzhou in December 2025, with a monthly acquisition amount of 11.93 billion, up 18.4% year-on-year [8] - The total land acquisition amount for 2025 reached 77.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, with a land acquisition area of 4.572 million square meters, up 39.2% [8] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 346.83 billion, with a decline expected in subsequent years, reaching 269.09 billion in 2025 and 225.90 billion in 2026 [10][14] - The gross profit margin is expected to decrease from 16.0% in 2023 to 13.1% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 14.1% in 2026 [14] - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 1.6% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2026 [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the successful launch of "Heart Town" international version, which topped the free charts in over 50 regions and achieved 5 million downloads shortly after its release. This game is expected to enhance user engagement and retention, contributing to revenue growth [4][5] - The upcoming holiday season is anticipated to boost revenue from existing games, while new game developments are expected to provide significant revenue increments. The company forecasts net profits of 1.507 billion, 2.006 billion, and 2.387 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25, 19, and 16 [4][6] - The report emphasizes the growth potential of TapTap, with a projected revenue increase of 33% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by improvements in advertising algorithms and the launch of high-profile games [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,389 million - 2024: 5,012 million - 2025: 6,353 million - 2026: 7,620 million - 2027: 8,441 million - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 47.9% in 2024, 26.7% in 2025, 20.0% in 2026, and 10.8% in 2027 [6] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: -554 million - 2024: 812 million - 2025: 1,507 million - 2026: 2,006 million - 2027: 2,387 million - The report indicates a significant improvement in net profit margins, with net profit margins expected to reach 23.7% in 2025 and 28.3% in 2027 [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in institutional attention towards sectors such as machinery, electronics, and environmental protection, indicating a shift in market focus [3][7][8] - The AI revolution is entering a new phase, with significant advancements in AI chip technology and applications across various industries, particularly in consumer electronics and automotive sectors [4][13][17] Sector Summaries Electronics - Major tech companies like NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm showcased advancements in AI chips at CES 2026, with NVIDIA's VeraRubin platform achieving a tenfold reduction in AI inference costs [4][13] - AMD's Helios platform demonstrated a tenfold performance increase over previous generations, gaining recognition from leading clients like OpenAI [4][13] - The overall trend indicates continuous improvement in AI inference performance and decreasing costs due to iterative advancements in chip architecture and manufacturing processes [4][13] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The report anticipates a peak in pig slaughtering by late January, with prices expected to slightly rise from a low base before the Lunar New Year [5][19] - In December 2025, the average selling price of pigs was 11.59 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.84% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.23% [5][19] - The supply dynamics are influenced by previous over-selling and expectations of price increases, leading to a forecasted weak supply and slight price recovery [5][19][20] Machinery - The report notes an increase in institutional research activity in the machinery sector, indicating growing interest and potential investment opportunities [3][8] - Companies like Chaojie Co. are highlighted for their growth in automotive parts, with a reported revenue increase of 34.49% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [11] Consumer Electronics - Innovations in traditional consumer electronics are increasingly focused on software and AI interaction experiences, with companies like Lenovo and Dell enhancing their product offerings [14] - The introduction of AI glasses and other AI-enabled devices is marking a significant shift towards personalized and scenario-specific applications in the consumer electronics market [15][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025, with a forecasted growth of 125% to 175%, resulting in a net profit of 436 million to 533 million yuan [5] - The company has successfully expanded its store network, reaching a total of 1,668 stores by the end of 2025, with a net increase of 163 stores during the year [6] - The company is enhancing its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, demonstrating the cross-cultural appeal of its designs [6] - The company is focusing on product differentiation and has launched new products that blend traditional culture with modern fashion [7] - The financial projections indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected revenues of 8.52 billion yuan in 2025 and 10.46 billion yuan in 2026 [9] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 5.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.56 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.1% [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 333 million yuan in 2023 to 960 million yuan in 2027, with a notable increase of 148.2% in 2025 [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.38 yuan in 2023 to 1.08 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [9] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 34.6 in 2023 to 12.0 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation over time [9]

Group 1: Supply and Demand - Construction starts are warming up, with a seasonal recovery in some operating rates; residential construction is performing better than infrastructure[2] - In the first two weeks of 2026, the operating rates of asphalt plants and mills are higher than the same period in 2025[2] - Cement supply for infrastructure projects has a significant year-on-year decline, while residential cement usage is close to the levels of the same period in 2025[2] Group 2: Industrial Production - Chemical production remains strong, while automotive steel tires and coking show weaker performance[2] - In the first two weeks of 2026, the operating rate of PX remains at a historical high, while PTA's operating rate is at a historical median[21] Group 3: Demand Weakness - Construction demand remains weak, with rebar, wire rod, and building materials at historical low apparent demand levels[3] - Passenger car rolling sales continue to show negative growth year-on-year[3] - Major home appliance sales, both online and offline, remain weak, with indices showing significant declines compared to previous years[38] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Copper, aluminum, and gold prices have reached new historical highs in recent weeks[40] - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing upward trends, driven by non-ferrous metals[43] Group 5: Real Estate Market - New housing transactions show a significant year-on-year decline, with average transaction area in 30 major cities down by 48% compared to 2024 and 2025[5] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes remain weak, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing negative year-on-year changes of -39%, -17%, and -39% respectively[62] Group 6: Export Trends - Export growth is expected to slow, with models indicating a year-on-year increase of approximately 3.4% for the first 11 days of January[64]