Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, supported by various policies aimed at balancing supply and demand. Despite potential minor fluctuations in housing prices, the overall trend is expected to be stable due to proactive fiscal and monetary policies [3][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Initiatives - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) is promoting a balanced real estate market by establishing a mechanism that links population changes to housing demand, land supply, and financial resource allocation [4][12]. - Guangzhou is fully promoting green buildings, aiming for all new civil buildings to meet at least a two-star green building standard by 2035 [13]. 2. Sales Performance - In the 51st week of 2025, the transaction area of new homes in 68 major cities increased by 30% month-on-month but decreased by 32% year-on-year, totaling 2.82 million square meters. Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area is 115.54 million square meters, down 18% year-on-year [5][17]. - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 20 cities was 1.90 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 25% but a month-on-month increase [34]. 3. Investment Trends - In the 51st week of 2025, the land transaction area in 100 major cities reached 8.13 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with a transaction premium rate of 1.7% [38]. - First-tier cities saw a slight decrease in land transaction area by 1%, while second-tier cities increased by 37% [39]. 4. Financing Conditions - The issuance of domestic credit bonds decreased significantly, with a total of 4.33 billion yuan issued in the 51st week, down 57% year-on-year and 68% month-on-month [44][56]. 5. Market Performance - The real estate index fell by 0.41% during the week, underperforming compared to the broader market, which saw the CSI 300 index decline by 0.28% [49].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the sustained high demand in the storage sector, with expectations for H200 to be approved for export to China [3] - AI demand continues to validate and enhance computing power requirements, with significant growth in domestic AI chip production [5][8] - The approval of L3 level autonomous driving vehicles marks a critical step towards commercialization in China, with Robotaxi services expected to accelerate [6][30] Summary by Sections Internet - The daily usage of tokens for Doubao has surpassed 50 trillion, indicating deep penetration of large models [17] - The release of the "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules" aims to regulate price competition and protect consumer rights, shifting focus from low prices to ensuring merchant profits and promoting consumption upgrades [20][21] - Recommended stocks include Alibaba-W, Pinduoduo, and Baidu Group-SW, with Tencent Holdings as a beneficiary [58] AI - Google TPU's commercial potential is further confirmed with Anthropic's significant orders, totaling $21 billion, indicating strong demand for AI products [21] - The launch of the Skill paradigm by Anthropic aims to enhance the capabilities of AI agents, facilitating easier development and deployment of complex AI applications [22][26] - The market for Agentic AI is projected to grow significantly, with a potential market size of 1.8 trillion yuan by 2030 [22] Intelligent Driving - The first L3 level autonomous driving models have received approval for trial operation, indicating a shift from testing to commercial application [30] - Robotaxi services are expected to accelerate due to technological advancements, cost reductions, and supportive policies [35] - Key players in the Robotaxi market include Baidu, Xiaopeng Motors, and WeRide, with ongoing trials and commercial operations in various cities [43][44]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the market's repair process is ongoing despite recent fluctuations, with strong sectors like AI hardware and military industries showing new opportunities [1][9][12] - The current market structure indicates that high-growth sectors outperform small caps, which in turn outperform the Shanghai Composite Index, reflecting external liquidity disturbances and the need for a strategic approach to stabilize profit-making effects [1][11][12] Group 2 - Three main factors affecting the market's repair process are identified: the nearing interest rate hike in Japan, concerns about the limited space for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the weak economic data coupled with a lackluster central economic work conference [2][18][33] - The report suggests that the core drivers of the current bull market remain unchanged, with liquidity still being accommodative and the fundamentals showing moderate recovery, despite external risks impacting the market [13][41] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on sectors that benefit from technology and PPI improvements, with specific attention to commercial aerospace and satellite industries as strong themes for investment [3][50][58] - The report highlights the importance of the domestic consumption market, particularly in lower-tier cities, as a growing contributor to overall retail growth, indicating a structural shift in consumer behavior [52][54]

Domestic Macro Policy - The central government emphasizes a stable and progressive economic work approach for 2026, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan for this year[3][10]. - The government plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance through integrated stock and incremental policies[3][10]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand is prioritized as a key task for next year, aiming to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides[5][17]. Infrastructure and Industry Policy - Recent policies include the release of the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicle permits and the introduction of antitrust compliance guidelines for internet platforms[13][14]. - The 2026 national energy work conference has set key tasks, emphasizing the transition to green and low-carbon energy sources, with an expected addition of over 200 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity[14]. Real Estate Policy - Shandong Province has introduced guidelines for a "housing old-for-new" program, proposing three models to encourage housing upgrades[15][16]. - The total urban housing demand during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be around 4.98 billion square meters[16]. Financial Regulation - The central financial committee stresses the importance of effectively managing financial risks related to local small and medium financial institutions and real estate enterprises, while also addressing local government financing platform debts[19][20]. - The merger plan for China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities has been announced, marking a significant consolidation in the financial sector[20]. Overseas Macro Policy - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%, with a voting outcome of 9 in favor and 3 against, indicating a cautious approach to future rate changes[24]. - The European Central Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2%, aligning with market expectations, while the Bank of Japan has raised its rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% to combat persistent inflation[24][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The electronic industry index decreased by 3.02% during the week of December 15-19, 2025, with semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors experiencing declines of 3.26% and 4.12%, respectively [3] - The storage sector showed resilience, with significant gains in major companies such as Micron and SanDisk, indicating a strong performance amidst overall market fluctuations [3][4] - The report highlights the ongoing updates in AI models and the sustained high demand in the storage sector, suggesting a positive outlook for companies involved in AI computing and storage solutions [4][6] Market Review - The U.S. tech sector rebounded after a significant drop, while the A-share electronic sector faced a general decline [3] - Notable performances included Nvidia rising by 3.41%, Tesla by 4.85%, and Micron by 10.28%, while Apple and Google saw slight declines [3] Industry Updates - Multiple significant AI model updates were released, with companies like Xiaomi and Google launching advanced models that enhance performance and efficiency [4] - Apple is collaborating with Broadcom to develop an AI inference chip, expected to enter mass production in 2026 [5] Storage Sector Insights - Storage prices are continuing to rise, impacting downstream terminal pricing, with Dell planning to increase commercial PC prices by 10% to 30% [6] - Micron's FY26Q1 revenue reached $13.64 billion, a year-over-year increase of 57%, with guidance for FY26Q2 revenue also exceeding market expectations [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth sectors such as storage and AI computing, as well as the end-side AI sector, which is expected to maintain strong demand [7] - Beneficiary companies include North Huachuang, Tuojing Technology, and others involved in the AI and storage sectors [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The insurance sector has seen a 15.7% increase since December 5, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 0.5% [4] - The release of the asset-liability management measures for insurance companies is expected to enhance regulatory oversight and impact asset allocation and insurance operations, particularly for small and medium-sized insurers [5] - The brokerage sector is anticipated to benefit from a positive regulatory environment, with potential growth in investment banking, public funds, and overseas business, supporting profitability in 2026 [6] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The new asset-liability management measures aim to strengthen the linkage between assets and liabilities, with implementation starting on July 1, 2026 [5] - Key management goals include matching duration structures, cost-benefit alignment, and liquidity matching [5] - The transition to dividend insurance is expected to deepen, with a favorable settlement yield compared to traditional insurance, driven by increased demand for savings products [5] - Long-term interest rates stabilizing and a positive equity market outlook are expected to improve net assets and profitability for insurers [5] Brokerage Sector - The average daily trading volume for stock funds is 2.2 trillion, reflecting a 7.2% decrease [6] - The resumption of trading for China International Capital Corporation (CICC) has led to a rise in stock prices, with expectations of increased leverage and business synergy [6] - The brokerage sector remains undervalued, with strategic opportunities for investment in firms with strong overseas and institutional business advantages [6] - Recommended stocks include Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and CICC, among others [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The biopharmaceutical investment and financing environment has shown significant recovery since the second half of 2025, with a total financing amount of USD 30.32 billion from July to November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.90% [4] - The number of new drug IND applications stabilized in 2025, with approximately 1,897 applications from January to November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 7.91% [4] - The demand for CRO services has shown a clear turning point, and the report continues to recommend opportunities in the innovative drug industry chain (CXO + research services) for 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 0.14% in the third week of December 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.14 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 sub-industries [7][14] - The offline pharmacy sector saw the highest increase, rising by 5.59%, while the chemical preparation sector had the largest decline at 2.1% [18][22] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the strong performance of leading CXO and research service companies, with many exceeding earnings expectations. Companies like WuXi AppTec and Tigermed have raised their earnings guidance for 2025 [5] - The report recommends a valuation switch opportunity for leading CXO and research service companies, given the continuous improvement in demand [5] Clinical Research Organizations (CRO) - There has been a notable improvement in orders for preclinical and clinical CROs, with expectations for significant improvements in financial statements for 2026 [6] - The report anticipates that the market demand will continue to focus on leading companies as the capacity of clinical CROs is expected to be streamlined [6] Monthly and Weekly Recommendations - The report recommends a monthly investment portfolio including companies such as Sanofi, Innovent Biologics, and others, focusing on innovative drug opportunities and valuation switch [8]

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Minute Capital Flow Segmentation Residual Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on the "Factor Segmentation Theory," the minute-level capital flow is segmented using specific indicators (price, return, and amplitude) to extract residual factors with differentiated information[13][14][27] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Segmentation indicators include minute price, minute return, and minute amplitude - Segmentation objects are the net inflow of large and small orders over the past 20 days - For price segmentation, the high-price (head) and low-price (tail) segments are compared, with the 50% segmentation ratio showing optimal performance - For return segmentation, the high-return segment is selected - For amplitude segmentation, the high-amplitude segment is selected - The residual factors are constructed by reprocessing the segmented variables[13][14][27] - **Factor Evaluation**: The amplitude segmentation residual factor outperforms the price and return segmentation factors, showing the best performance in stock selection[27] 2. Factor Name: Minute Capital Flow Time Period Residual Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Different types of investors exhibit distinct preferences for intraday trading periods, and the capital flow information in specific periods contains unique signals[30][31][36] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Intraday trading periods are divided into the first hour, second hour, third hour, fourth hour, first half-hour, and hourly intervals - The capital flow information of specific periods over the past 20 days is extracted - Residual factors are constructed for large and small orders in each period - The first half-hour period is selected as the optimal time period for constructing the residual factor due to its superior stock selection performance[30][31][36] - **Factor Evaluation**: The first half-hour residual factor demonstrates robust stock selection performance, with a stable long-short curve since 2021[34][36] 3. Factor Name: Minute Capital Flow Scenario Residual Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Market scenarios are divided based on specific indicators (e.g., 5-minute return), and the capital flow information under similar scenarios is used to construct residual factors[42][43][45] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Market scenarios are defined using indicators such as amplitude, 1-minute return, 5-minute return, and signed transaction volume - The top 50% of trading minutes based on the selected scenario indicator are identified - The corresponding capital flow information for individual stocks is extracted - Residual factors are constructed for large and small orders under the selected scenario - The 5-minute return indicator is chosen as the optimal scenario for constructing the residual factor due to its ability to effectively capture market trends[42][43][45] - **Factor Evaluation**: The 5-minute return scenario residual factor shows the best stock selection performance among all scenario-based factors, with stable performance since 2021[45] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Minute Capital Flow Segmentation Residual Factor - **Large Order (Amplitude)**: IC mean = 0.041, RankIC mean = 0.045, ICIR = 3.23, RankICIR = 3.34, Annualized Long-Short Return = 15.9%, IR = 3.39[27][30] - **Small Order (Amplitude)**: IC mean = -0.047, RankIC mean = -0.054, ICIR = -2.96, RankICIR = -3.32, Annualized Long-Short Return = 17.7%, IR = 3.02[27][30] 2. Minute Capital Flow Time Period Residual Factor - **Large Order (First Half-Hour)**: IC mean = 0.043, RankIC mean = 0.049, ICIR = 3.41, RankICIR = 3.47, Annualized Long-Short Return = 16.8%, IR = 3.64[36][42] - **Small Order (First Half-Hour)**: IC mean = -0.061, RankIC mean = -0.07, ICIR = -3.47, RankICIR = -3.82, Annualized Long-Short Return = 23.3%, IR = 3.65[36][42] 3. Minute Capital Flow Scenario Residual Factor - **Large Order (5-Minute Return)**: IC mean = 0.037, RankIC mean = 0.04, ICIR = 3.88, RankICIR = 3.86, Annualized Long-Short Return = 14.1%, IR = 4.04[45][50] - **Small Order (5-Minute Return)**: IC mean = -0.054, RankIC mean = -0.059, ICIR = -3.99, RankICIR = -4.15, Annualized Long-Short Return = 21.2%, IR = 4.22[45][50] 4. Scenario Residual Factor Performance in Different Index Samples - **Large Order (CSI 300)**: IC mean = 0.027, RankIC mean = 0.028, ICIR = 1.45, RankICIR = 1.53, Annualized Long-Short Return = 6.7%, IR = 1.14[55][60] - **Large Order (CSI 500)**: IC mean = 0.034, RankIC mean = 0.037, ICIR = 2.16, RankICIR = 2.45, Annualized Long-Short Return = 9.4%, IR = 1.83[55][60] - **Small Order (CSI 300)**: IC mean = -0.04, RankIC mean = -0.039, ICIR = -1.68, RankICIR = -1.59, Annualized Long-Short Return = 11.1%, IR = 1.63[55][60] - **Small Order (CSI 500)**: IC mean = -0.048, RankIC mean = -0.049, ICIR = -2.77, RankICIR = -2.77, Annualized Long-Short Return = 15.1%, IR = 2.48[55][60]

食品饮料 2025 年 12 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《中央经济工作会议积极定调，飞天 批价或止跌触底 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.14 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 《白酒短期批价扰动，西麦新品值得 关注—行业周报》-2025.12.7 《茅台韧性凸显，建议长期配置布局 —行业周报》-2025.11.30 消费筑底政策共振，白酒或至底部重视布局 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：内需政策赋能消费，白酒进入深度调整期 12 月 15 日-12 月 19 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 1.0%，一级子行业排名第 11，跑 赢沪深 300 约 1.3pct，子行业中烘焙食品（+8.0%）、零食（+7.5%）、预加工食 品（+5.6% ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the performance of the North Exchange in 2025, indicating a significant rise in the North Index 50 to around 1400 points, with three distinct phases of market movement: rapid increase, oscillating rise, and a correction phase [2][12][15] - In the rapid increase phase (January 1 - March 11, 2025), the North Index 50 surged from 1,037.81 to 1,418.65 points, achieving a cumulative return of 36.70%, while the specialized index rose from 1,683.33 to 2,421.50 points, with a return of 43.85% [15][16] - The oscillating rise phase (April 7 - September 5, 2025) saw the North Index 50 increase from 1,044.07 to 1,647.01 points, yielding a cumulative return of 58.70%, and the specialized index from 1,759.64 to 2,806.39 points, with a return of 66.72% [16][17] Group 2 - The correction phase (September 15 - December 19, 2025) stabilized the North Index 50 and specialized index around 1400 and 2400 points, respectively, with the North Index 50 declining to 1,445.84 points and the specialized index to 2,440.21 points, resulting in cumulative returns of 39.32% and 44.96% [17][23] - The report emphasizes the performance of small-cap stocks, indicating that companies with market capitalizations of 0-20 billion, 20-40 billion, 40-80 billion, and above 80 billion had average returns of 54.08%, 38.60%, 18.26%, and 30.59%, respectively [26][31] - The report identifies that national and provincial-level "little giant" companies outperformed non-little giant firms, with average returns of 48.26%, 38.06%, and 39.19% for national, provincial, and non-little giants, respectively [27][29] Group 3 - The report highlights that national and provincial-level single champion companies achieved average returns of 59.27% compared to 39.61% for non-single champion companies [32][34] - In terms of industry performance, high-end equipment and new chemical materials sectors showed higher returns, with average returns of 50.20%, 28.67%, 48.49%, 40.43%, and 43.56% for high-end equipment, information technology, new chemical materials, consumer services, and biomedicine, respectively [34][36] - The report also notes that companies with new productive forces, ESG attributes, high scarcity, and high dividends had average returns of 50.49%, 48.44%, 49.14%, and 57.51%, respectively, indicating a strong performance in these categories [37][43]