投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 基础化工 基础化工 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 基础化工 沪深300 2025 年 10 月 12 日 数据来源：聚源 | 金益腾（分析师） | 宋梓荣（分析师） | 张晓锋（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | songzirong@kysec.cn | zhangxiaofeng@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790525070002 | 证书编号：S0790522080003 | 本期行业观点：六氟磷酸锂供需面改善，预计短期价格或将进一步上涨 相关研究报告 《《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案 （2025-2026 年）》印发，草铵膦、锦 纶行业反内卷有序推进—行业周报》 -2025.9.28 《UCO-SAF 供需持续偏紧，欧盟对美 SAF 征收反侵销税或凸显中国 SAF 竞 争力—行业点评报告》-2025.9.25 《本周电石价格上涨，国内生物酶解 法 rPET ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the introduction of export controls on lithium batteries and artificial graphite anode materials, effective from November 8, 2025, requiring permits for export [2][16] - The report identifies 19 key companies in the lithium battery sector listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with a total market capitalization of 99.024 billion yuan as of October 10, 2025 [2][17] - Key companies mentioned include Beiterui, Changhong Energy, and Naconor, with Beiterui achieving a revenue of 6.279 billion yuan in H1 2025 for anode materials, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.83% [2][20] Group 2 - The high-end equipment and chemical new materials sectors showed average gains of +1.20% and +0.46% respectively from September 29 to October 10, 2025 [3][29] - The median P/E ratio for the high-end equipment sector rose to 41.4X, while the chemical new materials sector increased to 43.1X [3][29] - Notable performers in the high-end equipment sector included Lingge Technology with a gain of +53.93% and Changfu Co. with +25.72% [3][29] Group 3 - In the technology new industry, 156 companies saw a median increase of +0.32% in stock prices, with Lingge Technology leading at +53.93% [4][40] - The total market capitalization of these companies rose from 495.053 billion yuan to 495.739 billion yuan during the same period [4][43] - The median P/E ratio for the automotive sector increased to 36.0X, indicating a positive trend in valuations [4][54] Group 4 - The report notes that Changhong Energy's revenue from lithium battery business increased to 48.35% of total revenue in H1 2025, with a total revenue of 2.018 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.91% [2][25] - The company reported a net profit of 111.588 million yuan in H1 2025, up 28.79% year-on-year [2][25] - The report emphasizes the stable pricing of lithium battery raw materials and recovering market demand as key factors for Changhong Energy's performance [2][25] Group 5 - The report discusses recent acquisitions, including Deer Chemical's acquisition of 100% of Shandong Runhe Potassium Salt Technology Co. for 44.5404 million yuan [5][61] - Huaitong New Materials is planning to acquire at least 51% of Baoding Sanyuan Textile Technology Co. to enhance its business scale and profitability [5][61] - The report highlights the strategic moves of companies to consolidate their positions in their respective industries [5][61]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The controlled nuclear fusion sector is experiencing steady progress in research and construction, with continuous order releases, indicating a positive long-term development outlook [8][35] - The BEST device construction has fully commenced, and the core component bidding is expected to accelerate [6][22] - Recent breakthroughs in plasma discharge frequency and intensity by Zap Energy mark significant advancements towards commercialization [20][21] Summary by Sections Sector Review - In the week of October 9-10, 2025, most segments within the controlled nuclear fusion sector saw price increases, with notable gains in individual stocks such as Hahai Huadong (+29.6%), Hezhuan Intelligent (+21.0%), and Antai Technology (+21.0%) [5][15] - The magnetic materials segment rose by 10.9%, vacuum chamber and metal forgings by 10.8%, and upstream metal materials by 7.6% [17] Industry Dynamics - The BEST device's key component, the Dewar base, has been successfully installed, marking a new phase in the project [22] - Germany announced a €2 billion fusion action plan aimed at establishing a demonstration reactor by the 2040s [25] - Gauss Fusion released a concept design report for Europe's first commercial fusion power plant, with an estimated investment of €15-18 billion [31] Company Developments - Hangyang Group won a bid for a low-temperature liquid helium testing system project, which is crucial for the controlled nuclear fusion low-temperature system [34] Weekly Perspective - The ongoing development of nuclear fusion devices and the release of orders are viewed positively for the sector's long-term prospects, with a focus on core components such as magnets, main units, and power supplies [35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the acceleration of capital expenditure by global AI giants, with domestic players like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent entering a phase of large-scale investment in AI computing and applications [19] - The report highlights the importance of self-controlled computing power in the AI sector, suggesting that the computing power supply chain is a core focus area for investment [19] - The report recommends focusing on seven major industry directions, including network equipment, IT equipment, AIDC data center construction, computing power leasing, cloud computing platforms, AI applications, and satellite internet & 6G [19] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Investment Insights - Global AI computing power is resonating, with a focus on self-controlled computing power [10] - OpenAI has released Sora2, a video and voice generation model, marking a significant advancement in video modeling capabilities [13][14] - OpenAI's DevDay 2025 introduced several tools and updates, positioning ChatGPT as a potential "operating system" for the AI era [15] - OpenAI has formed a strategic partnership with AMD to deploy 6GW of AMD GPU computing power for its next-generation AI infrastructure [16] - The report notes the acceleration of domestic computing power development with the release of new models [17][18] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of August 2025, China has 4.646 million 5G base stations, with a net increase of 395,000 stations since the end of 2024 [29] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.154 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.46% [29] - In June 2025, 5G mobile phone shipments were 18.436 million units, accounting for 81.6% of total shipments, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.7% [29] 3. Operator Performance - The report highlights strong growth in innovative business development among major operators, with revenue from cloud services showing significant increases [40][44] - In the first half of 2025, China Mobile's cloud revenue reached 56.1 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-on-year [44] - China Telecom's cloud revenue was 57.3 billion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year, while China Unicom's cloud revenue reached 37.6 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year [44]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the recent tariff discussions and geopolitical tensions will not abruptly halt the ongoing bull market in Chinese assets, as evidenced by past market reactions to similar events [3][4]. - The report highlights that the recent drop in indices following Trump's tariff comments is seen as a potential buying opportunity, similar to the market's recovery after the April 2025 tariff announcement [3][4]. - The report suggests that the market still has room for valuation increases until the securitization rate reaches 1, indicating that the total market value will match GDP [3]. Group 2 - The report advises against a blind switch in investment strategies, emphasizing that the current market conditions do not warrant a complete shift, with technology remaining a core focus [4]. - It notes that the recent market style switch reflects a rebalancing process, with technology, manufacturing, and cyclical sectors showing significant gains, indicating a more balanced market [4]. - The report cautions that discussions of a comprehensive switch in investment styles are premature, as current adjustments may be more defensive in nature [4]. Group 3 - The report continues to advocate for a dual focus on technology and PPI (Producer Price Index) as the optimal investment strategy, while also highlighting sectors like military and financial technology as potential amplifiers of risk appetite [5]. - It identifies key areas of focus including self-sufficiency, rare earths, and gold, which are deemed important in the current market context [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing robust demand, particularly in the high-end luxury passenger vehicle market, with expectations for performance growth as product matrices expand [7] - Chinese automakers are gaining significant market share in Europe, with nearly 10% in the hybrid vehicle market and over 9% in the electric vehicle market, indicating strong competitive pressure on traditional manufacturers [16] - The report highlights a decline in vehicle imports, with a 40.6% year-on-year decrease in August 2025, reflecting potential challenges in the market [17] Industry News - During the National Day holiday, Hongmeng Zhixing's entire vehicle lineup achieved over 48,500 pre-orders, with the new Wanjie M7 model accounting for over 31% of total orders [5][13] - Xpeng Motors is set to announce significant breakthroughs in physical AI at its upcoming AI Technology Day, which could enhance its competitive edge in the market [15] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has reviewed Seres' application for an H-share listing, indicating potential growth opportunities for the company [14] Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index declining by 0.51% and the automotive sector falling by 1.48%, ranking 26th among A-share industries [6][22] - The commercial vehicle index saw a 3.01% increase, led by Jinlong Automobile and Yutong Bus, while the passenger vehicle index decreased by 1.39% [6][27] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the report recommends investing in Jianghuai Automobile and Seres, with Geely Automobile identified as a beneficiary [7] - In the auto parts sector, companies like Desay SV and Zhejiang Xiantong are recommended due to their growth potential amid industry changes [7]

2025 年 10 月 11 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 苏 良（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060004 何申昊（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524070009 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 相关研究报告 《有色金属板块的资金行为监测—金 融工程定期》-2025.10.10 《券商金股解析月报（2025 年 10 月） —金融工程定期》-2025.10.9 《港股量化：南下资金创 2021 年 2 月 以来新高，10 月增配有色—金融工程 定期》-2025.10.6 风险提示：模型测试基于历史数据，市场未来可能发生变化。 量化产品季度点评：300&500 增强 Q3 超额回 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the continued growth potential in the brokerage sector, driven by improved trading activity and regulatory changes in health insurance, which are expected to catalyze a new growth cycle [3][6] - The brokerage sector is projected to see a significant increase in net profit growth, with an expected year-on-year increase of 53.1% for the first three quarters of 2025, and a quarterly increase of 58% in Q3 [6][7] - The report identifies three main investment themes: brokers with strong retail advantages benefiting from cross-border asset management trials, firms with robust overseas and institutional business, and those excelling in wealth management [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report notes a substantial increase in trading activity, with the average daily trading volume for stock-based funds rising by 112% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 1.96 trillion [7] - The number of new accounts opened in the first eight months of 2025 was 17.21 million, a 48% increase compared to the previous year [7] Investment Banking - The report highlights a recovery in the IPO market, with a total of 78 IPO projects in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 13% year-on-year increase, and an IPO amount of 773 billion, up 61% [7][8] Asset Management - The report indicates a positive trend in public fund issuance, with new non-monetary and equity funds reaching 8.956 billion and 4.440 billion units respectively, marking increases of 5% and 183% year-on-year [8] Market Trends - The report discusses the performance of the stock and bond markets, noting a 17.94% increase in the CSI 300 index in the first three quarters of 2025, while the bond market saw a slight increase of 0.16% [9] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant increase in trading volume, with a year-on-year growth of 126% in the first three quarters of 2025 [10]

- The non-ferrous metal index (000819.SH) has increased by 83.14% since 2025, and by 83.87% since April 7, 2025, significantly outperforming the Wind All A Index during the same period [2][11][12] - Public fund holdings in the non-ferrous metal sector have rebounded since August 2025, based on real-time calculations using public market data such as fund net value, disclosed holdings, and research activities [3][15] - ETF holdings in the non-ferrous metal sector have been steadily increasing since July 2025, reflecting the growing popularity of index investment products, with the total scale of public ETF funds exceeding 4.3 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025 [3][18][20] - Margin balance in the non-ferrous metal sector has been rising since July 2025, indicating increased investor optimism about the market outlook [3][22][23] - Chip yield characteristics show that the current profitability effect of the non-ferrous metal index is 25.14%, with chip yield reflecting the return rate of current prices relative to historical chip costs [3][25][26] - Institutional research has been most frequent for companies such as Northern Rare Earth, Yunnan Copper, and Chihong Zinc & Germanium in 2025 [4][27][29] - Ganfeng Lithium, Huayou Cobalt, and Zijin Mining have received the highest attention from Snowball platform influencers since September 15, 2025 [4][30][31][32] - Major funds have flowed into companies such as Quartz Co., Bowei Alloy, and Shenghe Resources since September 15, 2025, with large and super-large orders used as proxy variables for major funds [4][34][35][38] - Companies such as Bowei Alloy, Jinli Permanent Magnet, and China Rare Earth have appeared on the Dragon Tiger List since September 15, 2025, reflecting the most active trading dynamics in the market [4][39] - High-frequency shareholder data indicates significant increases in shareholder numbers for companies such as Chifeng Gold, Huafeng Aluminum, and Hunan Gold, which may signal potential risks for subsequent stock prices [4][41][43]

2025 年 10 月 09 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 张 翔（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520110001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 《开源量化评论（23）-"金股+"组 合的量化方案》-2021.4.26 《开源量化评论（32）-券商金股的内 部收益结构》-2021.8.29 券商金股解析月报（2025 年 10 月） ——金融工程定期 魏建榕（分析师） 高鹏（分析师） weijianrong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519120001 gaopeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520090002 10 月份券商金股特征解析 10 月份中航沈飞、立讯精密、兆易创新、洛阳钼业、兴业银锡、安琪酵母、巨 人网络等金股推荐次数靠前。10 月份券商金股已经陆续发布，我们 ...