Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - Domestic industrial product prices are showing strong performance, with fluctuations in supply and demand impacting the market [4][5] - Construction activity remains at a seasonal low, with recent weeks showing a decline in operational rates for asphalt and cement, although there are signs of stabilization [4] - The demand side shows weakness in construction, while automotive and home appliance demand is fluctuating [4][6] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Central Huijin has significantly increased its holdings in major ETFs, exceeding 190 billion yuan, indicating strong market resilience and risk appetite [10][11] - The market is experiencing a structural shift with long-term funds playing a crucial role in stabilizing market expectations and supporting liquidity [11][12] - The focus on core assets remains essential as the market experiences rapid sector rotation, with policy-driven support expected to continue [13] Group 3: Institutional Research Trends - There has been a decline in overall institutional research activity, but interest in sectors such as computing, media, and coal has increased [15][17] - Specific companies like Ice Wheel Environment and Dongfang Tantalum are gaining attention due to their market positioning and growth potential [21] Group 4: Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical industry is facing increased competition, necessitating a "de-involution" approach to improve profitability and market conditions [48][49] - Domestic demand is expected to stabilize, but export growth may be limited due to international trade challenges [49][50] Group 5: AI and Entertainment Sector - The gaming, music, and entertainment sectors are experiencing high growth, with companies like Heartbeat and Dreamland seeing significant revenue increases [37][38] - The rise of AI applications in music and entertainment is expected to enhance user engagement and market opportunities [40] Group 6: Robotics Industry Developments - Yushutech is leading in the robotics sector, particularly in dog robots and humanoid robots, with a valuation of 12 billion yuan following recent funding rounds [42][44] - The company is focusing on self-developed core hardware and advanced control systems to enhance product performance and market competitiveness [43][44] Group 7: Pharmaceutical Sector Growth - The siRNA drug market is rapidly developing, with significant sales growth reported by companies like Novartis, indicating strong potential for domestic pharmaceutical firms [53][54] - The expansion of siRNA applications into chronic disease areas presents a promising market opportunity for future growth [54]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved record-high performance in Q2, with a strong new vehicle cycle expected to drive growth [4][6] - Despite a competitive industry environment, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the expansion of the Tank and overseas businesses, as well as the strong launch of new models from brands like Wey, Tank, and Haval [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 92.367 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.337 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% [4] - Q2 revenue reached 52.348 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.8% and a year-on-year increase of 30.8% [4] - Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.586 billion yuan, marking a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [4] Sales Performance Summary - The company sold 313,000 vehicles in Q2, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.1% and a year-on-year increase of 21.9% [5] - New energy vehicle sales reached 97,900 units in Q2, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33.7% [5] - Overseas sales continued to grow steadily, reaching 106,800 units [5] Future Outlook - The company is set to launch several new models, including high-end SUVs and new energy vehicles, which are expected to contribute to growth [6] - The company is also expanding its global footprint, with a new factory in Brazil expected to produce 50,000 new energy vehicles annually, with plans to increase capacity to 100,000 units [6] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 173.212 billion yuan in 2023 to 290.372 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [7] - Net profit is expected to increase from 7.022 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.466 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 11.9% [7] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 27.9 in 2023 to 10.6 in 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The media industry continues to show high growth potential, particularly in gaming, offline entertainment, and AI applications. The report emphasizes the importance of investing in these sectors to capitalize on ongoing trends [4][5] Industry Data Overview - The game "Delta Force" ranks first on the iOS free chart in mainland China, while "Honor of Kings" holds the top position on the iOS revenue chart as of July 19, 2025 [12][14] - The film "Jurassic World: Rebirth" achieved the highest box office revenue for the week [12] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is experiencing a new product cycle, with companies like Xindong and Youyi Time reporting positive earnings forecasts for H1 2025, driven by new game launches and improved profit margins [4] - The report recommends focusing on high-potential gaming companies such as Xindong, Giant Network, and Perfect World [4] Online Music Sector - The online music market has significant growth potential, especially among younger users. The report highlights the increasing user base and potential for higher ARPU compared to international platforms like Spotify [4] Concert and Live Events - The concert industry is expected to maintain high growth, with a reported 78% year-on-year increase in box office revenue for large concerts in 2024 [4] Domestic Animation - The domestic animation sector is thriving, with successful releases like "The Legend of Luo Xiaohei 2" and upcoming events such as ChinaJoy 2025 expected to drive consumer engagement and spending [4] AI Applications - Recent advancements in AI, including the release of new models and applications, are anticipated to accelerate commercialization in various sectors, including AI companionship, creation, and marketing [5] Company Performance - The report highlights key companies in the gaming and entertainment sectors, recommending specific stocks based on their performance and market position [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations in its H1 2025 performance, with a projected revenue of 307 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 107 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 57.6% [2] - The company is expected to maintain high revenue levels, driven by new national standards and an increase in international market orders. The revenue for Q2 2025 is projected to be approximately 151 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 5.6% [3] - The company is experiencing significant profit growth, with Q2 2025 profits expected to exceed market expectations due to the scale effect from increased DHA production and reduced costs, leading to improved gross margins [4] - The acquisition target, Ouyi Biological, is expected to contribute significantly to the company's growth, with a commitment to a cumulative net profit of no less than 270 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [5] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 708 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 27.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 192 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 54.2% [10] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 48.1% in 2025, with a net margin of 27.1% [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.14 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.9 [10][11]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market has shown strong resilience and signs of risk appetite recovery, achieving upward breakthroughs despite stable macro expectations [2][11][12] - Central Huijin has significantly increased its holdings in major ETFs, with a total investment exceeding 190 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025, indicating a robust structural support for the market [2][4][16] - The report emphasizes the role of long-term capital in establishing a "policy bottom," with Central Huijin acting as a stabilizing force during market volatility [3][16][22] Group 2 - Central Huijin's support for ETFs has shown characteristics of "total increase and structural diffusion," enhancing core allocations while expanding into various styles [4][22][24] - As of June 30, 2025, Central Huijin's holdings in major ETFs reached 1,162.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 120%, with the CSI 300 ETF being the core allocation [4][22][23] - The diversification of ETF holdings reflects a shift from concentrated investments to a more balanced approach across different indices and styles, enhancing market liquidity support [22][24][25] Group 3 - The report anticipates continued structural activity in the market, supported by stable macro expectations and ample liquidity, with policy-driven capital reinforcing market confidence [5][25] - Central Huijin's ongoing ETF purchases are seen as a critical factor in stabilizing market sentiment and enhancing risk appetite amid external disturbances [5][25][26] - The report underscores the importance of recognizing the long-term significance of policy support in maintaining confidence in core asset allocations during market adjustments [5][25]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Viewpoints - The company, Silicondale Co., Ltd. (301629.SZ), is a leading domestic manufacturer of probe test equipment, benefiting from the ongoing trend of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry [2][11] - The probe station market in mainland China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of USD 459 million by 2025, driven by the increasing demand for semiconductor testing equipment [3][35] - The company has established a strong competitive position through its advanced technology and localized service, which allows it to effectively respond to the needs of domestic semiconductor manufacturers [4][11] Summary by Sections 1. Leading Domestic Probe Station Equipment Manufacturer - Silicondale Co., Ltd. holds the largest market share in the probe station equipment sector in mainland China, with a market share of 25.7% as of 2023 [2][11] - The company is the first in mainland China to achieve the industrial application of 12-inch wafer probe stations, competing effectively with leading international firms [2][4] 2. Strong Growth Momentum in the Probe Station Equipment Market - The probe station is one of the three core testing devices in semiconductor manufacturing, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.28% from 2013 to 2023 in mainland China [3][29] - The demand for probe stations is expected to continue growing due to technological advancements and the ongoing domestic substitution process [3][38] 3. Technology and Service Synergy Driving Market Leadership - The company has built a solid competitive barrier through its technological capabilities and customer service, which are crucial in the context of domestic substitution [4][51] - Silicondale Co., Ltd. has developed six core technologies in probe testing, achieving a leading position in the domestic market [4][53] - The company maintains a high revenue contribution from its core technology products, which accounted for 93.31% of its revenue in the first half of 2024 [18][53]

Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains at a seasonal low, with asphalt and cement dispatch rates at historical lows, and funding availability on construction sites lower than in 2024[13] - Industrial production shows a slight decline in chemical chain operating rates, while automotive steel tire operating rates have increased, indicating overall industrial activity remains at a historical high[23] - Demand in construction is weak, with apparent demand for rebar, wire rods, and building materials below historical levels[31] Price Trends - International commodity prices have seen a rebound in oil and gold, while non-ferrous metal prices have declined[38] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing a strong performance, with the Nanhua Composite Index showing a rebound, particularly in the black series and construction materials like asphalt and cement[40] - Agricultural product prices, including pork, have shown signs of recovery in recent weeks[48] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions in major cities have decreased significantly, with a 51% drop in average transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, and a year-on-year decline of 35% compared to 2023[61] - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year declines of -18%, -1%, and +8% respectively[65] Export Performance - Port container throughput increased by 3.9% year-on-year before July 20, with export growth projected at approximately +1.5%[70] - The Shanghai container ship loading index suggests a potential export growth of around +4%[70] Liquidity and Interest Rates - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with R007 and DR007 both at 1.51% as of July 18[83] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 657 billion yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[86]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is facing intensified competition leading to profit pressure, necessitating a "de-involution" approach to improve the competitive landscape and achieve normal profit levels [5][15] - Domestic demand is expected to stabilize and recover, while export demand growth may be limited due to frequent anti-dumping cases against Chinese chemical products [6][59] - The current valuation of the basic chemical and petrochemical sectors is at historical lows, indicating a need for policy-driven valuation recovery [70] Summary by Sections 1. Supply Side: - The chemical industry has seen increased competition since 2025, resulting in continuous profit pressure. The Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) decreased by 6.95% from the beginning of 2025 [16] - From January to May 2025, the chemical raw materials and products industry achieved a revenue of 3.70 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, but the total profit decreased by 4.7% [16] - The overall capacity utilization rates for chemical raw materials and chemical fiber manufacturing were 71.90% and 85.60%, respectively, showing a decline [16][20] 2. Demand Side: - The 2025 Government Work Report emphasizes boosting consumption and investment efficiency, which is expected to gradually restore domestic demand [6][50] - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5%, indicating a narrowing decline [50][53] - The automotive sector showed growth, with vehicle and new energy vehicle sales increasing by 10.8% and 36.2%, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [50][58] 3. Cost Side: - Since 2025, international oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices down by 5.73% and 4.56% respectively from the beginning of 2025 [64] - Domestic coal and natural gas prices have also seen a downward trend, with coal prices down by 19.45% compared to the beginning of 2025 [64] 4. Valuation: - As of July 11, 2025, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the basic chemical and petrochemical sectors were 25.37 and 16.74, respectively, indicating they are at historical low levels [70][73]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - As of July 21, 2025, the Wind All A Index broke through the high point on October 8, 2024, for the first time [3]. - The key logic for the market rally lies in the fundamental change in policy orientation and the economic cycle being in an upward phase. The current economy is similar to that in 2016 - 2017, in the second half of the L - shaped curve. In the second half of 2025, with no significant economic downturn and the resolution of structural issues, there may be a stock - bond switch, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [5][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Understanding of the Rally - Industry highlights and thematic market trends may not be sufficient to drive the index up. For example, from 2022 - 2024, there were industry highlights like Huawei's chips in 2023, but the index continued to decline [4]. - The current market rally may not be mainly driven by the "national team" propping up the market. There were previous instances of the "national team" propping up in February 2024, but the market fell again after May 2024 [4]. - The reversal of the "American Exceptionalism" may not be the key factor. Overseas funds may not have flowed into China significantly, and the US and Chinese stock markets are rising in resonance [4]. - Low - interest rates may not drive the stock market up. From 2022 - 2024, bond yields declined, but the stock market fell. A high stock - bond ratio is not a sufficient condition for a rise, as seen from May - September 2024 [4]. Key Logic for the Rally - Policy orientation has undergone a fundamental change. The Politburo meeting in September 2024 marked a policy inflection point, ending the long - term economic de - leveraging from 2021 - 2024 and the local hidden debt rectification from January - September 2024 [5]. - The economic cycle is in an upward phase. After the policy inflection point in September 2024, market confidence has been on an upward path. Currently, it is similar to the second and third quarters of 2016, with significant upward potential in market expectations [5]. - The policy aims to stabilize the demand side and solve structural problems. Since July 2025, anti - involution policies and urban renewal are similar to the supply - side reform and shantytown renovation from 2016 - 2017. Although it may not drive a large - scale real - estate up - cycle or PPI growth over 7%, real - estate stabilization and positive inflation may boost market expectations [6]. Economic Expectation Revision and Stock - Bond Switch - The current economy is similar to that in 2016 - 2017, in the second half of the L - shaped curve. It has ended the downward phase from 2021 - 2024 and entered a stabilization phase, with the policy addressing structural issues to promote real - estate stabilization and inflation normalization [7]. - In the second half of 2025, with no significant economic downturn and the resolution of structural issues, there may be a stock - bond switch, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [7].

| 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 建筑材料 | 6.061 | | 建筑装饰 | 3.790 | | 钢铁 | 3.444 | | 有色金属 | 2.408 | | 基础化工 | 2.214 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 2025 年 07 月 22 日 开源晨会 0722 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 银行 | -0.770 | | 综合 | -0.338 | | 计算机 | -0.310 | | 家用电器 | -0.032 | | 食品饮料 | 0.072 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 行业公司 【公用事业】火电商业模式迎来拐点，盈利稳定性有望提高——行业投资策略 -20250721 【电力设备与新能源】欧洲电动车销量月 ...