Core Insights - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the power industry, highlighting a shift from energy generation to capacity support, with a projected decline in utilization hours for coal-fired power plants [1][8] - The short-term catalyst is identified as the near-bottom point of the ignition price difference, indicating potential profitability recovery for coal power companies [5][40] - Long-term trends suggest a revaluation of coal power's regulatory value, with improved profitability stability and shareholder returns expected as the industry transitions [6][7] Group 1: Industry Overview - The power supply structure is undergoing a transformation, with coal power's share in installed capacity and generation steadily declining, as renewable energy sources gain prominence [21][22] - By May 2025, coal power's installed capacity reached 1.457 billion kilowatts, accounting for 40.4% of the total power generation capacity, a decrease of 16.2% from the end of 2020 [21][22] - The report anticipates a wide supply-demand balance for energy and a tight balance for power during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, driven by rapid growth in renewable energy installations [33][34] Group 2: Short-term Catalysts - The ignition price difference, which is the difference between after-tax electricity prices and fuel costs, is expected to improve, particularly in northern coal-producing regions [5][40] - The report forecasts that the utilization hours for coal-fired power will remain stable or slightly increase in regions with tight supply-demand conditions, while areas with excess capacity will see a decline [41][42] - The number of coal power projects under construction or planned across 29 provinces indicates a continued focus on maintaining a balanced supply-demand scenario [46][48] Group 3: Long-term Trends - The transition from energy generation to capacity support is expected to reduce the sensitivity of coal power profitability to upstream coal prices and downstream electricity prices [6][16] - The capacity price mechanism, set at 330 yuan per kilowatt annually, is projected to cover fixed cost recovery, with a recovery rate of at least 50% expected by 2026 [15][14] - As the auxiliary service market matures, coal power's revenue from these services is anticipated to provide stable returns, especially as many existing coal power units approach their depreciation limits [6][16][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the power equipment industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The European electric vehicle market is experiencing a recovery in 2025, with a 26% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales in the first half of the year, totaling 1.33 million units [5][14] - The report highlights significant growth in battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales across various European countries, driven by government incentives and manufacturer discounts [15][20][25][35][43] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicle Sales in Europe - In the first half of 2025, new energy vehicle sales in nine European countries reached 1.33 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26% [14] - In June 2025, sales reached 273,000 units, with a penetration rate of 28.9%, up 6.5 percentage points year-on-year [14] - BEV sales accounted for 872,000 units, up 25.6% year-on-year, while PHEV sales reached 459,000 units, up 27.6% [14] 2. Country-Specific Insights - **Germany**: BEV sales in the first half of 2025 totaled 249,000 units, a 35.1% increase year-on-year, supported by Volkswagen's electric transformation and government subsidies [16] - **United Kingdom**: BEV sales reached 225,000 units in the first half of 2025, up 34.6% year-on-year, aided by the reintroduction of electric vehicle subsidies [20] - **France**: BEV sales were 149,000 units in the first half of 2025, down 6.5% year-on-year, but expected to improve with the return of social leasing plans [25] - **Spain**: BEV sales increased by 84% in the first half of 2025, driven by new model launches and promotional activities [43] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in lithium battery companies such as CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Xinwangda, as well as lithium material companies like Hunan Youneng and Huayou Cobalt [47] - Specific companies are highlighted for their potential benefits from the growing electric vehicle market, including those involved in battery components and electric drive systems [47][48]

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing a supply contraction due to overselling of live pigs since June, leading to a potential increase in pig prices in Q3 2025. The average selling price of live pigs in June 2025 was 14.28 yuan/kg, down 2.28% month-on-month and down 21.99% year-on-year [4][15] - The supply-demand dynamics are improving, with the gross white price difference strengthening month-on-month. As of July 17, 2025, the gross white price difference was 4.71 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.45 yuan/kg compared to June, although lower than the same period in 2024 [5][27] - The industry is entering a critical supply contraction phase, with expectations for the price center of live pigs to rise monthly [4][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Since June, the overselling of live pigs has intensified, leading to a supply contraction. The average price of live pigs in June 2025 was 14.28 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.28% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.99% [4][15] - The monitoring sample indicated a slaughter volume of 4.3168 million heads in June 2025, down 6.20% month-on-month but up 12.22% year-on-year [4][15] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The gross white price difference has improved, indicating a stronger supply-demand balance. The national frozen product storage rate was 16.85%, down 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [5][27] - The industry is currently in a supply contraction phase, with expectations for the price center of live pigs to rise gradually [4][15] Company Performance - As of July 10, 2025, 12 listed pig farming companies reported a total of 16.1481 million heads sold in June, a year-on-year increase of 45.98% [6][34] - The average selling prices for major listed pig companies decreased month-on-month, with specific companies reporting the following prices: Muyuan Foods at 14.08 yuan/kg, Wens Foodstuff Group at 14.39 yuan/kg, and New Hope Liuhe at 14.18 yuan/kg [7][41]

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic view on the market's ability to continue breaking through, driven by strong risk appetite and multiple signals supporting market upward momentum [8][9][10] - Key sectors showing strong performance include construction materials, non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and household appliances, with high-growth sectors identified as media, agriculture, construction materials, transportation, and non-bank financials [9][10] - The report highlights the importance of the TMT sector, particularly AI hardware and gaming, as significant drivers of market interest and investment [8][9] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the potential of the low-altitude economy, with significant developments in eVTOL aircraft and related infrastructure, supported by government policies and local initiatives [53][54] - Companies like Xiaopeng Heavens and Times Technology are noted for their recent financing and order achievements, indicating strong market interest and growth potential in the low-altitude sector [53][54] - The report suggests that the low-altitude economy is experiencing a comprehensive rollout from macro to micro levels, with various applications being tested and developed [53][54] Group 3 - The food and beverage sector is facing challenges with slowing retail sales growth, particularly in the restaurant and alcohol segments, due to external factors such as subsidy controls and strict regulations [56] - Despite the pressures, there are opportunities for investment in leading liquor companies as valuations have reached low points, suggesting potential for recovery in the second half of the year [56] - The report indicates that the overall consumer demand needs to be stimulated, with a focus on the clearing of livestock and new demand drivers [56]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The global demand for polyester bottle chips is steadily increasing, with a CAGR of 6.2% from 2015 to 2024, growing from 20.04 million tons to 34.35 million tons [4][14] - The industry is entering the tail end of the current expansion cycle, with expectations for long-term improvement in profitability as the industry moves past its low point [5][37] - Recent industry-wide production cuts are expected to further enhance price recovery and improve profit margins [6][41] Summary by Sections Demand Side - The global demand for polyester bottle chips has shown a robust upward trend, with Asia-Pacific being the primary market [14][18] - In 2024, the demand for polyester bottle chips in China is projected to reach 8.62 million tons, with the soft drink market accounting for 65% of this demand [19][25] Supply Side - Domestic polyester bottle chip production capacity has increased significantly, from 33.35% of global capacity in 2021 to 47.94% in 2024, making China the world's largest producer [5][36] - The industry is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a decline in profitability, but this is expected to improve as new capacity additions slow down [5][37] Price Dynamics - The price differential for polyester bottle chips is closely linked to supply and demand dynamics, with recent production cuts leading to a recovery in price differentials from 150-170 RMB/ton to over 400 RMB/ton [6][43] - The industry is anticipated to recover from its current low profitability as production capacity stabilizes and demand continues to grow [31][37] Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on companies benefiting from the industry-wide production cuts and the anticipated recovery in profit margins, including Wan Kai New Materials, Sanfangxiang, and China Resources Materials [7][47]

Group 1 - The spandex industry is experiencing significant capacity exits, which is expected to alleviate the oversupply situation. Korean Taekwang Group announced the suspension of some spandex production lines at its Chinese subsidiary starting July 14, 2025, marking the first closure of a spandex plant in China by the group [1][10][11] - Xiaoxing Spandex has already shut down 8 production lines by the end of 2023, with plans to close 2 more in July 2025 and an additional 2 by March 2026, ultimately ceasing operations by the end of 2026. The core raw material PTMG (polytetramethylene ether glycol) has seen a 23% year-on-year increase in costs due to high international oil prices, but domestic companies have achieved over 80% localization of PTMG, reducing costs to 60% of imported products [1][11][12] - In 2024, the proportion of domestic spandex procurement by Chinese sports brands surpassed 75% for the first time, with leading companies like Anta and Li Ning collaborating with spandex manufacturers to create a closed-loop ecosystem from R&D to production. Foreign brands have seen their market share shrink to less than 12% [2][11][12] Group 2 - The chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange saw a weekly increase of 0.10%, ranking third among five major industries. The rubber and plastic products sector rose by 1.36%, while textile manufacturing fell by 3.08% [3][19][20] - Notable individual stock performances included Guangxin Technology (+8.66%), Kaida Catalysis (+8.26%), and Yinuowei (+8.16%), indicating strong market activity within the chemical new materials sector [3][23][24] - The price trends for chemical products showed a 1.5% decrease in Brent crude oil prices, while TDI prices surged by 23% and MDI prices increased by 1.8% [27][29][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Domestic demand still needs to be boosted, with a focus on the clearing of pastures and new demand momentum [3][4] - The food and beverage index increased by 0.7% from July 14 to July 18, ranking 13th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points [11][13] - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points [3][11] - The restaurant and catering revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 0.9% and a decline of 0.4%, indicating significant pressure on restaurant consumption [3][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the market, with a 0.7% increase, ranking 13th among sectors [11][13] - Sub-sectors such as soft drinks (+2.0%), dairy products (+1.2%), and liquor (+0.9%) performed relatively well [11][13] Upstream Data - The price of whole milk powder in the GDT auction on July 15 was $3,928 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 25.0% [18][22] - The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.2% [18][22] Recommendations - Recommended companies include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Shares [5] - Guizhou Moutai is expected to deepen its reform process and emphasize sustainable development despite short-term demand pressure [5] - Shanxi Fenjiu has high mid-term growth certainty, with product structure upgrades and accelerated national expansion [5]

2025 年 07 月 20 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 医药生物 行业走势图 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 医药生物 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《CXO 龙头中报业绩超预期，重点关 注板块后续行情 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.7.13 《艾伯维收购 Capstan，加码体内 CAR-T—行业周报》-2025.7.6 《多款减肥药亮相 2025 ADA，重点关 注 AMYR 与 ActRII 靶点—行业周报》 -2025.6.29 集采政策明确优化，继续推荐制药板块性机会 ——行业周报 | 余汝意（分析师） | 刘艺（联系人） | 聂媛媛（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | liuyi1@kysec.cn | nieyuanyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523070002 | 证书编号：S0790124070022 | 证书编号：S0790124050002 | 集采政策持续优化，仿创 pharma 有望估值重塑 集采政策优化基调明确， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The central urban work conference emphasized urban renewal, which is expected to drive demand for construction materials such as pipes, waterproofing, and coatings. This will lead to significant improvements in the real estate chain's fundamentals [3] - The report recommends several companies in the consumer building materials sector, including Sankeshu (channel expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproofing leader), Weixing New Materials (high retail business ratio), and Jianlang Hardware. Beneficiary companies include Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader) [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission's action plan for the cement industry aims to control cement clinker capacity at around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025, which is expected to accelerate energy-saving and carbon reduction efforts [3] Market Performance - The construction materials index fell by 0.23% in the week from July 14 to July 18, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.32 percentage points. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 7.17%, while the construction materials index increased by 4.36%, underperforming by 2.82 percentage points. In the past year, the CSI 300 index rose by 14.68%, and the construction materials index increased by 16.62%, outperforming by 1.94 percentage points [4][13] Cement Sector - As of July 18, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 280.87 CNY/ton, down 0.71% month-on-month. The clinker inventory ratio was 67.24%, up 1.35 percentage points [6][27] - The report highlights regional price variations, with Northeast China stable, North China up by 0.74%, and East China down by 1.90% [26] Glass Sector - The spot price of float glass as of July 18, 2025, was 1214.63 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.71% from the previous week. The inventory of float glass nationwide decreased by 175 million weight boxes, a decline of 3.05% [82][84] - The average price of photovoltaic glass remained stable at 116.02 CNY/weight box [89] Fiberglass Sector - The market price for non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranged from 3300 to 4100 CNY/ton, with variations depending on the manufacturer [6] Consumer Building Materials - As of July 18, 2025, the price of asphalt was 4570 CNY/ton, stable week-on-week, and up 2.93% year-to-date. The price of titanium dioxide was 13050 CNY/ton, down 1.14% month-on-month [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry's stable growth plan is expected to optimize the competitive landscape of the chemical industry on the supply side [4][30] - The TDI market price has risen sharply due to supply disruptions caused by an incident at a production facility in Germany [4][24] - The overall profitability of the chemical industry is under pressure due to increased capital expenditures and concentrated new capacity over the past four years, but the upcoming stable growth plans may lead to the elimination of outdated capacity and recovery of product profitability [30] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.69% this week, with 302 out of 545 stocks in the sector rising [18] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) reported a decrease of 0.27% this week [20] Key Products Tracking - The TDI market price increased to an average of 14,063 CNY/ton, up 17.06% from the previous week [24] - The glyphosate market is showing strong performance with prices continuing to rise, averaging 25,901 CNY/ton [55] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, and others in various sub-sectors [6][30] - Beneficiary stocks include Cangzhou Dahua and others that may benefit from the current market conditions [25][31]